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This weeks Gold, Silver, Oil, and SPX Price Forecast

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

My Gold and Miners Rally & Prediction

We’ve been trying to alert all of our followers of the setup in precious metals for well over 6 months.  Here is our research post from February 6, 2019 (nearly 4 months ago) that highlights our prediction of an April 21~24 momentum base and our earlier calls predicting a move above $1300, then a stall and move lower towards the base in April, then the next leg higher.

We could not have been clearer in our analysis and we predicted the bottom and rally in gold in Oct, called the top and closed our GDXJ miners position near the in February, and called for gold to bottom this April/May over 7 months in advance.

 

SEE GOLD PREDICTION CHART FROM OCTOBER 2018
Predicted the rally, then the correction which brings us to today
See Blog Post

 

SEE GOLD CORRECTION FORECAST FEB 6th
Expecting pullback to $1275 level
Read these articles and see for yourself why our research and predictive modeling system are second to none.

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TRADE WHAT MATTERS – PRICE ACTION! 
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How To Trade The Current Market Volatility/Crash/Recovery

This is a delayed video sample of what I share with members to my Wealth Trading Newsletter each and every morning
before the market opens. Learn, Be Alerted, and Profit!

http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Interest Rates, US Dollar, Canadian Dollar

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.

Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

US Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins

The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting.  The markets should take this as a sign of relief.  Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.

The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment.  A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies.  Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.

The $INDU rotated much lower today, ending the day almost exactly at a key support channel level (the YELLOW line).  Further price weakness could push the $INDU below $26,000 fairly easily if the current high price level is fragile and weak.  Price rotation is one of the most basic aspects of all price activity.  The price must rotate in order to establish new price highs or lows.  As volatility decreased over the past 30+ days, it would not be unexpected to see price retest the $26,000 level, or lower, in an attempt to resume a price trend or re-establish price support before attempting another move higher.

 

The move in the NQ today was much broader than the move in the $INDU.  The Technology heavy NASDAQ 100 rotated downward, below the historical price support channel, and is currently resting just above the previous all-time price high near $7724.  Again, the Fed’s inaction may be interpreted as an expectation of market weakness over the next few months.  Thus, traders reacted to this move by interpreting this weakness in the Fed to raise rates by selling.

Overall, leaving rates unchanged may be very healthy for the US and global economies.  The US Dollar continues to strengthen and this shake-out may be just what is needed before the Summer season for the price to continue trending.

We’ve recently warned that the US major Indexes are nearing our Fibonacci upside price targets and that we believe the upside price move may continue for another 20+ days still.  This current rotation may be very short-lived – possibly only 5~10 days of lower/sideways price action before trends resume an upside price bias.  Time will tell.

Overall, our prediction that a shake-out was about to happen appears to be unfolding just days after we made the claim.  Our longer-term analysis is still the same – continued upside price bias as earnings and fundamentals drive prices closer to our Fibonacci price targets before any bigger price reversal may set up sometime in July/Aug 2019.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.

Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Financials Setting Up An Island Top Formation

As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears.  Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs.  We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.

Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future.  We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.

An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap.  In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue.  Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends.  Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.

This Daily FAS chart highlights the GAP as well as the Resistance levels that are currently acting as a ceiling.  A breakout above the resistance level would indicate that we have more room to run higher.  Any failed breakout to the upside, where price briefly rallies above the resistance level, then falls back below it, would be a pretty strong indication of a rotational peak.  The Financials could fall 10% from current levels and still be within the range of the March/April lows.  It would take a much bigger move to qualify as a breakdown bearish trend.

 

This Daily XLF chart highlights a similar pattern to the FAS chart.  The key element of the XLF chart is that the Resistance level provides more key fundamental price peaks than the FAS chart.  On this XLF chart, we can see that the current Resistance level aligns perfectly with the Nov/Dec 2018 highs.  We can also see a short GREEN Fibonacci trigger level line in early March 2019 above the Resistance level.  That Fibonacci trigger level is still valid and any move above that level would constitute a new bullish price trend trigger.

Any failure to break the Resistance level would qualify as a price rotation to fill the GAP and potentially set up a move back to near $25 looking to find new support.  Overall, the Financials are poised for a move – up or down.  Our research suggests the US stock market is not done rising, thus we are concerned that certain sectors may begin to show signs of weakness as the broader market continues to rise.

 

Our research team believes a critical peak formation is likely near the end of May or in early June 2019.  It is because of this belief that we are warning traders to play the next 15~25+ days very cautiously.  Watch the Financials, the Transportation Index, the US Dollar, and Precious Metals.  We believe any early signs of weakness will be found within these symbols.

With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Courses are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen

Our April 21~24 Gold Call Is Here

One of the most important things about making calls about any future price movement is to have confidence in your research team and systems.  The second most important thing is to make these calls public so everyone can see if you were right or wrong about your predictions.  Predicting the future, often many months in advance, is not an easy task.  We like to ask people, how many people do you know that can predict something in the future, almost to the exact day, and find they were accurate more often than being wrong?

Well, this is the time we’ll see if our predictions are accurate or not.  Back in October 2018, we issued a research post indicating that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall, then set up a momentum base between $1260 and $1275 near mid-April or early May.  Here is a link to that public post: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

In February/March 2019, our research team honed in on the April 21~24 dates as a key cycle date for a very likely momentum bottom setup.  You can read our research here.  We believe these dates will be key to the future rally in Gold and they may very well be the last time we see sub-$1300 price levels for a while, but gold does need to reverse to the upside this week.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1278.10 with a recent low at $1273.  Remember our original prediction that the momentum base would likely setup between $1260 and $1275?  Right now, we believe this Momentum base is setting up exactly as we predicted back in October 2018 – over 6 months ago.

As we continue to watch this Momentum Base setup play out, we urge skilled traders to watch the outlying symbols for signs of confirmation and validation.  The news about the Iran Oil Sanctions, today, may become a key element going forward – but it is too early to tell right now.  We believe some global economic event will drive prices of Gold much higher over the next 30+ days.

Gold has moved lower over the past 30+ days from the $1340 level down to near the $1270 level – just as we predicted as well.  The timing of this recent downswing in price is perfect for our April 21~24 Momentum Base call.  We do believe there is still a chance that a $1255 to $1260 level may be seen this week or next.  The Momentum Bottom/Basing formation may form over a 7 to 10+ day range.  So, pay attention to these opportunities in Gold over the next few days and weeks.

NUGT (3x gold miners bull ETF) continues to fall as Gold Bases.  In fact, NUGT has fallen to levels that we have not seen since January 2019.  The reality of the matter is that NUGT may be the best confirmation tool/symbol we have right now for timing the end of our Momentum Base in Gold.  When NUGT rotates higher and forms the base, it will very likely mark the end of weaker prices for the entire precious metals sector and the beginning of the upside price rally we have been predicting.

As our research team likes to state – this is “do or die” time with regards to our predictions from many months ago.  We’ve stuck by them for months, telling anyone who would listen this setup would be the last time you see sub-$1300 levels in Gold for many months – possibly years.  If our analysis is correct, we suggest you pay attention to these symbols and lower Gold price levels right now.  Once this move begins to rally, it could take the markets by surprise.

Our expectations are that by mid-May, or so, we should already be in an upside price swing that should be targeting the $1450 to $1550 level.  This means we have about 7 to 15 trading days until we start to see some real upside price move in precious metals.

We should remind you that gold needs to find a bottom this week and price could become choppy and volatile.

Get ready and follow our research.  How many other research firms do you know that are capable of calling the markets 6+ months in advance with this type of accuracy?

Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades for your future.

Chris Vermeulen

Precious Metals Give Traders Another Opportunity

We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019.  Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.

Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019.  You can read our updated post here.

This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019.  Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.

We’ll start by highlighting the Gold to Silver price ratio.  When this ration moves well above 80, it is generally considered a long term buy trigger.  The reason for this is that this ratio attempt to reflect the price of Silver to the price of Gold.  When this level reaches above 80, it traditionally reflects an extremely cheap price ratio for both Gold and Silver and usually prompts a big price advance in the near future.

 

Taking a look at historical price moves for both Gold and Silver, we fall back to the big upward price advance that began after the 2009 market crash.  One thing that all traders and investors must understand is that, currently, Silver presents an incredible opportunity for bigger returns than Gold.  Yes, Gold will likely rally higher and provide an incredible opportunity for upside gains.  Yet, historically, Silver begins to move a bit later than Gold does and the upside potential of Silver tends to be 40~70% greater than the upside potential for Gold.

Take a look at this comparison chart, below, of the 2009 to 2011 price move.  Gold shot up nearly 100% – as shown on the chart.  Silver shot up over 150% when the breakout move happened a bit after the Gold move started.  We expect the same type of price advance pattern in the near future.  We expect Gold to begin the move higher and Silver to lag behind this upside move a bit – possibly for a few months.  Eventually, Silver will break to new multi-year highs and could rally 130% to 220% above current levels – possibly higher.

 

Over the next few months, we believe increased volatility in the US stock market may drive prices a bit lower as price rotates near all-time highs.  We believe this rotation, coupled with foreign market concerns (think Brexit, Europe, China, South America) as well as the US Election cycle may cause the markets to enter a period of stagnation and sideways trading.  These impulses may become a catalyst for precious metals to break recent highs and begin an upward price advance as a general increase in FEAR settles into the global markets.

We do believe Gold and Silver will likely move a bit higher over the next 30+ days as the US stock markets continue to push higher towards new all-time highs.  Yet, if the volatility increases, as we expect, and a bigger price rotation takes place (see the chart below), we believe Gold and Silver may experience another price drop to near or below current levels before a massive upside breakout move begins.  Historically, the price of Gold contracts throughout the initial price correction phase of the S&P500 and begins to accelerate upward near the end of a correction phase.  This is because investors and traders are typically shocked to see the correction take place and move into a protective mode as true fear sets in.  When fear subsides, traders move out of precious metals and back into stocks.

 

Our current expectations are that Gold will continue to push lower, below $1275, in an attempt to establish our April 21~24 momentum base.  This base should be at or near ultimate lows for the price of Gold and we would expect a pennant or sideways price channel to complete this bottoming formation.  Ideally, any price move below $1250 is a gift for skilled traders.  We’ll just have to wait to see where this bottom sets up before we know just how low Gold will fall before the next leg higher.

We believe the next upside price leg in Gold will push prices above $1400 initially, likely in May or June 2019.  After that peak is reached, we believe a period of rotation and a potential for a price decline is very real.  We believe this next leg higher will really to levels above $1400, then price will stall and retrace – possibly retracing back to levels below $1300 again.  It would be at that point that skilled traders should consider this the last opportunity for long entries before the bigger move to the upside.

 

Our research into this move, which initiated back in October 2018, has called these rotations almost perfectly.  If our newest research is correct, you will have at least two opportunities to enter fantastic long trades in Gold and Silver, one setup hitting between April 21 and April 28 and another setup after the initial upside price rally retraces (likely in June or July 2019).  After that last retracement, we believe the bigger upside rally will begin and both Gold and Silver will initiate a rally that could be an opportunity of a lifetime for skilled traders.

Follow our research by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond.

Chris Vermeulen

Natural Gas Continues To Offer Opportunities for Longs

Historically, April has been a pretty consistent upside opportunity in Natural Gas for over 20 years.  Over the past 24+ years, the upside opportunity in Natural Gas has been accurate over 68% of the time with the average upside potential ranging from $0.60 to $0.85.  With Natural Gas sitting down near recent lows and seeing as though we are still fairly early in the month of April, our researchers believe the opportunity still exists for some quick profits in UNG with an upside move from below $23.95 to a target level of $26 to $28 (roughly +9 to +18%).

The downside risk is rather limited with clear support visible below the recent lows (near $22.75) and a historical likelihood of any further downside price swing being below 33%.  Our research team believes an opportunity to establish new longs in UNG below the current Daily price gap (below $23.50) would be ideal.

 

Historical data mining shows that average upside rallies at this time of the year are typically ranging just below $1.  Thus, the upside potential for this move being about +9 to +12% should be sufficient for quick profits.  Skilled traders can hold a small portion of the trade for any potential run beyond these initial target levels, but we caution traders that $28.50 to $29.00 is an area of strong resistance. Our last trade in natural gas with subscribers netted us 30% profit in UGAZ within 10 days back in February.

Our research team is still waiting for the Daily Upside Gap to fill with prices below $23.50 before we look to enter any new trades.  We have been patiently waiting for the bottom in Natural Gas to form knowing that we have this trade setup with a relatively high success rate.  Keep an eye on Natural Gas and look for any good entries below $23.50 in UNG – the deeper the better.  Our Fibonacci modeling systems are already suggesting a bottom has set up and any upside price move above $24.30 will likely prompt a bigger rally towards $26 to $28.

Are you ready for this next move?  Want to know how we can help you find and execute better trades?  55 years of combined experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Courses are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen