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Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone

After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher.  It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019.

We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts.

Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines.  It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019.

In fact, our data mining utilities confirm this by suggesting that June, July, and August are all typically lower price months by a factor of 1.5:1 and 2:1 mostly over the past 24 years. September is the first monthly data point to break this cycle with a positive historical price bias of nearly 9:1.

Therefore, the closer we get to September 2019, the more likely we are going to see a basing in price near $2.00 (or below) and traders would be wise to prepare for this move before it happens.

Our Weekly Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a moderate move upward of about $0.25 is likely over the next few weeks before price may rotate lower, again, and attempt to fall below the $2.25 level as it continues to rotate towards the ultimate base.

Our researchers believe the ultimate price base will be near $2.00 (roughly between $1.85 and $2.15) as our Weekly Fibonacci modeling tool is suggesting.  After price establishes the new price peak in late June, we’ll have more data to compare for the proper location of the ultimate price base.

This Daily chart highlights our expectations for NG over the next few weeks – fairly strong potential for a move higher, above $2.50, where the price will stall and reverse back to the downside.  Ultimately, this peak will turn out to be nothing more than required price rotation to support the ultimate base pattern setup later in August or September 2019.

Don’t get too excited about Natural Gas just yet.  The setup and future trade are in the process of creating a deep price base that will likely end near late August or early September 2019.  We believe September 2019 will be the breakout month for NG as a price advance really takes hold.  If historical data is any guide, the 9:1 upside bias of September following the 1.4:1 downside bias of August suggests that the September upside price move could push NG prices well above $3.50 or $4.00 very quickly.

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Equities

We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks.  Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend.  This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough.  The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.

We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past.  We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history.  These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.

This first example is the ES (E-Mini S&P Futures).  You can see from this chart the earlier examples of the 100% Fibonacci price legs working in the October 2018 downward price move. The current downward price legs have set up a perfect 100% Fibonacci price expansion leg and we believe support may form near $2732.

We would normally wait for some type of price confirmation that this level is going to act as support – for example, a solid reversal bar or Japanese Candlestick price pattern.  After confirmation is achieved, a price rotation equal to 60% to 95% of the last downward price leg can be expected.

This next example shows Crude Oil and the most recent downward two Fibonacci Price Legs.  The first resulted in a very quick upside price rotation (highlighted by the green arrow near May 20).  The second downside Fibonacci Price Leg just ended near $53.30.

It is our belief that Oil will find support near this $53.30 level and rally back above $56 from these lows.  The only thing we are waiting for is some type of technical price confirmation of this bottom setup and we can expect a 4% to 8% upside price swing in Crude Oil.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals.  This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time.  Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.

More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here

We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

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Chris Vermeulen

The Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom?

Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”.  They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future.  The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.

So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable.  We’re here to help.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move.  The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research.  The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.

Let’s start with the Weekly YM chart.  The GREEN highlighted box on this chart shows where the past two Bullish Fibonacci price trigger levels were generated.  These, obviously, become key support levels going forward.  The narrow ORANGE box near the current peak is the resistance channel we highlighted many weeks ago that suggested a volatility rotation peak may be setting up.  We have also drawn an oblique/circle on the chart in BLUE that highlights upside Fibonacci target price levels.

It is our opinion that a further downside leg, possibly to levels below $25,000, are possible as this Shake-Out continues and as the global markets continue to revalue expectations.  We are watching the currencies very closely as the Chinese Yuan has devalued extensively over the past few days.  This US Dollar strength will keep metals fairly flat while prompting some extra stability in the US stock market over time.

 

This next chart, the NQ Weekly, shows a similar chart format to that of the YM.  Clear resistance can be seen near the recent highs and support is found near the $6600 level from previous Fibonacci Bullish Price Trigger Levels.  The NQ, being very heavily weighted in Technology and Internet stocks, may have the ability to fall the furthest within this price rotation – possibly as much as -700 to -800 pts before finding support.  Currently, a support level near $7400 is the first level we are watching.  If the NQ breaks below this level, then we could see a much bigger move to the downside unfold fairly quickly.

 

Lastly, the Transportation Index (TRAN) is showing us that the downside price move may have already reached a level that may prompt intermediate price support – or a potential base formation.  The $10,400 to $10,500 level, which was already reached, appears to be the initial support level for the TRAN.  It would make sense that the TRAN may begin to base near this level over the next few days/weeks while the US stock market attempts to hammer out a bottom.

Ultimately, the $10,000 level has proven to be very strong historical support for the TRAN.  So any breakdown in this index would immediately prompt a target level of $10,000 for the next support level.  Again, pay attention to the US Dollar and Gold as this movement continues.  Any real fear will translate into a weaker US Dollar and increasing prices in precious metals.

 

In closing, we believe the early signs of a potential price bottom are setting up right now.  This may not be the ultimate bottom, but the clear support level in the TRAN is a very good sign that the markets are setting up a support base that may prompt some sideways trading over the next few weeks as the market continues to digest all this global trade news.  A deeper “washout-low” price formation may set up in the INDU or the NQ over the next few days which means we may see a deeper price rotation before the downtrend actually ends.

Right now, pay attention to our continued research and we’ll help you find the bottom when it forms.  Our current expectations are for a continued downside price move that will establish a washout-low formation over the next 3 to 10 trading days.  We’re not out of the woods yet, but we are starting to see the early signs of price support – which means a bottom may not be too far off.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY

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Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 13 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

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Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared

Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen.  Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections.  We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year.  Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago.  We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.

The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling.  With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders.  What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?

Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.

First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday.  This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week.  A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings.  I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time.  These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.

With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets.  We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ).  At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.

 

Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24).  It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future.  Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms.  The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks.  Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked.  Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong.  We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs.  It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.

 

The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050.  As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations.  Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.

 

Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966).  This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move.  Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other.  We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now.  Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs.  Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months.  But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.

 

Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA.  Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion.  Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation.  We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past.  Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility.  This aligns with our broader market analysis.  The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis.  Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.

 

If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.  Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com