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Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Price Volatility Will Continue

We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends.  The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move.  Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility.  The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities.  Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.

This ES Daily Fibonacci chart prompts two initial analysis insights – first, the peaks near 3025 appear to have setup a double-top pattern that should be interpreted as major resistance.  Historical Fibonacci price trigger levels setup a range in price that has proven to be a key price channel (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE).  Current price rotation suggests continued price weakness may continue – at least until price attempts to rally above 3025 and attempts to establish a new price high.  Downside price targets are near 2900, 2695 and 2610.  Rotation within the price channel could continue for a while before a new price trend is established. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

This Weekly ES Fibonacci price chart highlights the very wide Fibonacci price trigger levels that suggest extreme price volatility could become a major factor going forward.  The interesting facet of this chart is that Bearish Fibonacci trigger levels have been crossed over the past 12+ months whereas Bullish Fibonacci trigger levels have stayed just outside of real price levels.  This suggests that the current upside price move, over the past 7+ months, could be a pullback in a bearish price trend.  As difficult as that may be for some traders to understand at this point, the process of the Fibonacci price modeling system that adapts to price trend and rotation is designed to allow for price to determine future outcomes.  Thus, the Bullish trigger levels being far outside the upside price peaks suggests that price may be moving higher within a defined downtrend cycle – a pullback within a bearish trend.

This Daily YM chart is setup very similar to the ES Daily chart with a defined price channel established by the current Fibonacci price trigger levels (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE on this chart).  The lower price peak recently, near September 11, suggests price was unable to rally back to near previous high levels.  Technical, this can be interpreted as a Double-top and can also be interpreted as a failure to attempt to rally above 27500.  We believe the current rotation is indicative of a channel consolidation before a breakout/breakdown move.

This Weekly YM chart highlights the extended range between the Fibonacci price trigger levels and suggests the YM is setting up a bigger move in the near future.  Just like the ES chart, the YM is showing that price is stuck within a channel and that the Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a breakout or breakdown move is likely.  At these times, we would fall back to the Daily charts for the shorter term analysis which suggests sideways trading within a range and the potential that the bearish price trend is the more dominant bias.

We believe the US stock market could be setting up for a downside price rotation that may become very volatile over the next 2 to 3 months.  Price would have to break below recent price troughs before we could attempt to establish any new longer-term price trends.  The recent price rotation, higher highs, and higher lows, is indicative of a bullish price trend.  Although, we believe this trend may be a technical pullback of a bearish price trend.

Ultimately, price will dictate a new price trend and extended direction.  We believe any price rotation (downward) will be fairly short lived and setup a new upside price rally that will attempt to rally beyond recent price highs.  Skilled technical traders need to be prepared for extended volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and be prepared for some big price trends.

MORE CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Silver Should Pause At $16.75 Before Next Rally Starts

Our advanced Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that the current Silver rally may be nearing a point where the price will pause and retrace a bit before advancing further.  The incredible breakout rally over the past few weeks in Silver was a real surprise for many investors.  The sleepy shiny metal that everyone thought was dormant broke well above the $15.50 level on huge volume and continued to rally to levels near $16.65.

We published some incredible research regarding the longer-term potential for precious metals – specifically the potential for Silver as the Gold/Silver ratio continues to decline.  Please take a minute to read this research post PART I.

We believe the upside potential for Silver is, at a minimum, targeting $26 to $34 for an immediate upside price objective.  Overall, longer-term, we believe Silver could rally well above $50 as the Gold/Silver ratio falls to levels below 65.

This Daily Silver chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows you that price has already reached the upside price objectives for this current expansion leg.  Sometimes price may rally beyond these levels (in extreme trending), but we believe the recent pause in the rally suggests the price will rotate lower (to levels near $16) before attempting another upside rally leg.  We’ve highlighted what we believe will happen with arrows on the chart and we believe the next leg higher will align closer to the early August time-frame.

This Weekly Silver chart also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system, yet it shows the longer-term price modeling results.  Overall, the CYAN level, near $16.65, is acting as our first level of moderate price resistance.  We believe the support from the previous price peak, drawn as a MAGENTA LINE, will act as support and price will rotate between current levels and this support level before forming a momentum base and attempting to move higher – targeting the $18 to $18.50 level.

Take advantage of this price rotation before the next move higher.  Silver is extremely undervalued in comparison to Gold.  Any reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio, which is already taking place, will mean that Silver will rally 30% to 60% faster than Gold rallies. This will happen because the disparity in price between Gold and Silver has reached an extreme level.  As precious metals rally, this disparity level decreases.  Silver moves higher much quicker because it continues to be extremely undervalued compared to Gold and is more affordable nicknamed “poor man’s gold”.

There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago.  The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter

If you want to see 5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets topping and the pending gold and silver bull market just take a look at this short video and charts.

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset NewsletterYou won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 Early This Week

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019.  The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.

After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks.  Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations.  For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.

This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the next downside price move that we are expecting will take place over the next 4 to 7 days.  After the $50 to $51 lows are reached, Oil should base near these levels and begin a moderate upside move back to levels above $54.  This move aligns perfectly with our earlier analysis and research and strongly suggests that oil will target a sub-$40 price level in the near future.

What does this mean for investors and traders?  It means that our ADL predictive modeling system is accurately calling these moves in oil and that the sub $40 price expectations could reflect a decrease in global economic expectations over the next 6+ months.  For oil to continue to fall to levels below $40, demand would have to wane or supply would have to increase globally – or both.  Additionally, it would likely indicate that global expectation for the future demand for oil would be far lower than previously expected.  A commodity price collapse, like this, could be an early warning sign that the global economy is slowing much faster than many expect or it could be a sign that the fundamentals in the oil market are shifting as the economy is slowing.

Either way, it appears we are headed for sub $40 price levels in oil later this year.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, MINERS, SILVER, SP500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Topping Signals

Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12.  Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level.  In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.

The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity.  If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity.  If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.

This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.

Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price.  We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.

MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.

Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is today within this cycle:  https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/

TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping

Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next! 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the
next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

NQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping

With earnings data starting to hit the markets and recent news that China’s economic activity levels shrank to levels not seen in nearly 30 years, we believe our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is showing us a target level in the NASDAQ (NQ) that will likely be reached within the next 7 to 10 days.  We believe once this target level is reached, the US stock market will immediately begin an extended topping formation with sideways price action and increased volatility) which will culminate in our August 19, 2019 setup date for a much deeper price correction.

At this time, traders should start to prepare for this topping event and prepare for price resistance to be found as the NQ nears this 8031 level – only 60 pts away.  If you are sitting on a bunch of profitable long trades, our suggestion would be to scale back 50% to 60% of these open positions and prepare for a top setup to begin within 7 to 10 days.  The volatility we expect to see over the next 30 days will likely be 2x or 3x current levels.

Nasdaq Daily Chart

This Daily NQ chart highlights the Fib Target Resistance level and shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s current downside price targets (7760, 7400 and 7265).  These downside price target will change as the new price peak is established near the 8031 price level.

Nasdaq Weekly Chart

This NQ weekly chart highlights the same suggested resistance level (the YELLOW LINE drawn near the recent highs) and highlights deeper Weekly Fibonacci downside price targets near 6950, 6000 and 5950.

Our expectations are that economic weakness and price rotation will set up and begin a downside price move on or near August 19, 2019, based on our cycle research.  We believe this move will initially target a -6 to -9% downside price move, then extend into a much deeper price decline ending near the start of 2020 or within Q1 of 2020.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Conclusion:

Our researchers believe traders should be actively scaling back existing long positions in preparation for this top setup.  Key psychological levels have already been reached and the minute the NQ breaks above 8000, the key Fibonacci target level and the key psychological level (8000) become critical elements for the market top formation.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT WITH US

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms

On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce.  This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions.  There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.

You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.

Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post.  These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley).  The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move.  The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg.  The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).

In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed-through exactly as we predicted.

This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels.  As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations.  Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations.  But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.

Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup.  They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.

This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed.  It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this.  Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.

At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg).  This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon.  There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.

Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs.  The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets.  After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.

Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg.  The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals.  This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time.  Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.

More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here

We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND 
TRADE WHAT MATTERS – PRICE ACTION! 
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom?

The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50.  This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about.  Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.

This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.

It is important to understand the strength in the US dollar and the US economy should continue unless something interrupts the growth and continued out what from the US. It is very likely capital will continue to seek out the best returns and the best safety which we believe is available only in the US right now. Eventually, things may change where foreign markets become more opportunistic for investors and capital begins to shift away from the US markets. Until that happens we believe the US markets will continue to drive higher and likely push towards new all-time highs.

The strength of the US dollar is muting the upside potential in precious metals as well as the US stock market. We believe the underlying strength and opportunities resulting from the capital shift, where capital is rushing into US markets, will eventually override the strength of the US dollar. In other words, investors will continue to pour money into US stocks and into precious metals as a protection mechanism against risk while the US dollar continues to rise.  If and when the US dollar does rate below the lower price channel, the US stock market may likely breakdown as well and precious metals should skyrocket higher. Until that time, we expect a moderate price advance to continue in the US stock market major and mid-cap sectors, the US dollar, and precious metals.

Gold will likely rally from the 1340 level to just below 1380 on the next leg. Then Gold will likely cause and rotate to near 1360, pause briefly, then rally to levels above 1400. We believe this rally may happen before July 12-15, 2019.

Follow our research to stay ahead of the market moves.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 will include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We’ve also been calling these major moves very accurately. With the US elections only 15 months away, we urge all traders and investors to pay very close attention to our research and insights.

We have recently suggested that a major price may set up in late August or early September 2019. Once we get to this date or closer to this inflection point, we’ll provide more insight as to what our modeling systems are suggesting.

UNIQUE PHYSICAL SILVER OPPORTUNITY:

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Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who joins me with a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription if you a current subscriber or join one of these two exciting offers below, and you will receive:

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Chris Vermeulen

Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone

After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher.  It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019.

We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts.

Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines.  It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019.

In fact, our data mining utilities confirm this by suggesting that June, July, and August are all typically lower price months by a factor of 1.5:1 and 2:1 mostly over the past 24 years. September is the first monthly data point to break this cycle with a positive historical price bias of nearly 9:1.

Therefore, the closer we get to September 2019, the more likely we are going to see a basing in price near $2.00 (or below) and traders would be wise to prepare for this move before it happens.

Our Weekly Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a moderate move upward of about $0.25 is likely over the next few weeks before price may rotate lower, again, and attempt to fall below the $2.25 level as it continues to rotate towards the ultimate base.

Our researchers believe the ultimate price base will be near $2.00 (roughly between $1.85 and $2.15) as our Weekly Fibonacci modeling tool is suggesting.  After price establishes the new price peak in late June, we’ll have more data to compare for the proper location of the ultimate price base.

This Daily chart highlights our expectations for NG over the next few weeks – fairly strong potential for a move higher, above $2.50, where the price will stall and reverse back to the downside.  Ultimately, this peak will turn out to be nothing more than required price rotation to support the ultimate base pattern setup later in August or September 2019.

Don’t get too excited about Natural Gas just yet.  The setup and future trade are in the process of creating a deep price base that will likely end near late August or early September 2019.  We believe September 2019 will be the breakout month for NG as a price advance really takes hold.  If historical data is any guide, the 9:1 upside bias of September following the 1.4:1 downside bias of August suggests that the September upside price move could push NG prices well above $3.50 or $4.00 very quickly.

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Equities

We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks.  Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend.  This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough.  The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.

We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past.  We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history.  These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.

This first example is the ES (E-Mini S&P Futures).  You can see from this chart the earlier examples of the 100% Fibonacci price legs working in the October 2018 downward price move. The current downward price legs have set up a perfect 100% Fibonacci price expansion leg and we believe support may form near $2732.

We would normally wait for some type of price confirmation that this level is going to act as support – for example, a solid reversal bar or Japanese Candlestick price pattern.  After confirmation is achieved, a price rotation equal to 60% to 95% of the last downward price leg can be expected.

This next example shows Crude Oil and the most recent downward two Fibonacci Price Legs.  The first resulted in a very quick upside price rotation (highlighted by the green arrow near May 20).  The second downside Fibonacci Price Leg just ended near $53.30.

It is our belief that Oil will find support near this $53.30 level and rally back above $56 from these lows.  The only thing we are waiting for is some type of technical price confirmation of this bottom setup and we can expect a 4% to 8% upside price swing in Crude Oil.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals.  This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time.  Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.

More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here

We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

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Chris Vermeulen

The Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom?

Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”.  They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future.  The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.

So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable.  We’re here to help.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move.  The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research.  The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.

Let’s start with the Weekly YM chart.  The GREEN highlighted box on this chart shows where the past two Bullish Fibonacci price trigger levels were generated.  These, obviously, become key support levels going forward.  The narrow ORANGE box near the current peak is the resistance channel we highlighted many weeks ago that suggested a volatility rotation peak may be setting up.  We have also drawn an oblique/circle on the chart in BLUE that highlights upside Fibonacci target price levels.

It is our opinion that a further downside leg, possibly to levels below $25,000, are possible as this Shake-Out continues and as the global markets continue to revalue expectations.  We are watching the currencies very closely as the Chinese Yuan has devalued extensively over the past few days.  This US Dollar strength will keep metals fairly flat while prompting some extra stability in the US stock market over time.

 

This next chart, the NQ Weekly, shows a similar chart format to that of the YM.  Clear resistance can be seen near the recent highs and support is found near the $6600 level from previous Fibonacci Bullish Price Trigger Levels.  The NQ, being very heavily weighted in Technology and Internet stocks, may have the ability to fall the furthest within this price rotation – possibly as much as -700 to -800 pts before finding support.  Currently, a support level near $7400 is the first level we are watching.  If the NQ breaks below this level, then we could see a much bigger move to the downside unfold fairly quickly.

 

Lastly, the Transportation Index (TRAN) is showing us that the downside price move may have already reached a level that may prompt intermediate price support – or a potential base formation.  The $10,400 to $10,500 level, which was already reached, appears to be the initial support level for the TRAN.  It would make sense that the TRAN may begin to base near this level over the next few days/weeks while the US stock market attempts to hammer out a bottom.

Ultimately, the $10,000 level has proven to be very strong historical support for the TRAN.  So any breakdown in this index would immediately prompt a target level of $10,000 for the next support level.  Again, pay attention to the US Dollar and Gold as this movement continues.  Any real fear will translate into a weaker US Dollar and increasing prices in precious metals.

 

In closing, we believe the early signs of a potential price bottom are setting up right now.  This may not be the ultimate bottom, but the clear support level in the TRAN is a very good sign that the markets are setting up a support base that may prompt some sideways trading over the next few weeks as the market continues to digest all this global trade news.  A deeper “washout-low” price formation may set up in the INDU or the NQ over the next few days which means we may see a deeper price rotation before the downtrend actually ends.

Right now, pay attention to our continued research and we’ll help you find the bottom when it forms.  Our current expectations are for a continued downside price move that will establish a washout-low formation over the next 3 to 10 trading days.  We’re not out of the woods yet, but we are starting to see the early signs of price support – which means a bottom may not be too far off.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY

On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position today for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started today is up already 10%.

Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 13 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

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Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen