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US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting On News/Guidance

Our researchers believe the global concerns centered around Banking and Debt within the Emerging Markets and Asia/Europe are very likely to become major issues over the next 3+ months.  These potentially dangerous issues could have far-reaching pricing ramifications for almost all of the world’s financial markets.  This weekend, we received first-hand information from an associate in Hong Kong about banks limiting ATM withdrawals and very limited transportation services.  Our source stated the biggest issue was the lack of transportation right now.

We also followed the news of the Bank collapse in India this weekend and the aftermath for Indian banking customers – PMC Bank

Many of you remember how the US credit crisis event started in a similar manner.  First, it is news of a few select financial institutions or lenders that are in trouble.  This sends a shock-wave throughout the populous – they react by becoming more “protectionist” in their actions.  Sometimes, small bank runs can happen as consumers want to have more cash on hand instead of “in the bank”.  Next, the local economic metrics start to fall – almost like a self-fulfilling nightmare, the consumers, acting to protect their interests and assets, are now pushing the local economy over the edge and the banks, possibly, over the breaking point in terms of Non-Performing Loans.

This time, as we have detailed in our previous research posts, we believe the crux of the credit problems is related to how emerging markets and foreign markets took advantage of the cheap US dollar between 2011 and 2015.  At that time, it was cheaper for banks to borrow the US Dollar than it was for them to borrow money from their own local central banks.  Thus, many went out seeking to borrow as much US Dollar as they could because it provided an opportunity to save on interest fees.  Now, as the global economy continues to contract in a “stagflation” type of manner, it becomes even harder for many of these firms, banks, and individuals to service their debt.

We believe the global markets and the US stock market are waiting for news before initiating any new price trends.  We believe the recent US manufacturing number is indicative of the type of economic output values we can expect over the next 30+ days.  Unless the US Christmas season starts off with a big spending spree or the US/China trade issue is resolved and settled within 30+ days, we believe the markets will continue to search for and identify “true price value” by seeking out true support before attempting to move higher again.

Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest thing you’ve ever made for your trading and investment accounts.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

This ES Daily chart highlights the recent resistance, triple-top formation, near 3025.  It is clearly obvious that this 3025 level is a very strong price resistance level.  Below this ceiling, we have multiple support levels to watch.  2875 is highlighted in MAGENTA and is one that we believe is the most critical right now.  Below that, the Moving Average level, currently at 2845, could also provide some support.  Below these two, we suspect the 2700 level is the only level of support left before we could experience a much bigger price breakdown.

DOW JONES DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart sets up a similar type of price pattern.  In fact, they are almost identical.  Again, the current downside price rotation has already established new recent price lows.  The RED resistance channel we drew across the tops should provide some real level of a price ceiling within this trend.  Our concern is that price will attempt a further breakdown without any positive news to extend a positive perspective for the US markets future.  There is just too much uncertainty in the world for investors to have the confidence to push prices higher.  The most logical transition would be for price to “reset” by rotating lower, finding true price value levels and establishing a new price bottom to begin a new rally from.

DOW JONES 2-WEEK CHART

This 2-Weekly YM Chart highlights exactly why we believe skilled technical traders need to be cautious right now and why having a very skilled team of researchers is important.  This is not the time to go ALL-IN on any trades.  This is not the time to roll your retirement account into HIGH-RISK funds.  We suggest being very cautious at the moment and to prepare for any downside rotation by scaling back your trading account to 70 to 80% CASH.  Deploying only about 20 to 25% into the markets right now.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

It is funny how real traders understand the value of having a skilled team of dedicated technical and fundamental researchers assisting them at times like this.  While other people freak out and turn into “super protectionist traders”.  The reality of these types of markets is that they are the best markets for traders.  Price swings are larger, opportunities are setting up nearly everywhere and skilled traders can attempt to make 45%, 65%, 85% or more within a very short time-frame.  Not like the regular market moves of 3~5% annually in the SPY.  This is the time when you want to become more attentive and active in the markets – with the right team.

Opportunities are setting up EVERYWHERE and will continue to present very clear trade setups over the next 16+ months.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. My simple technical trading strategy using ETFs will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it so you never get caught on the wrong side of the market with big losses.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Black Hole In Global Banking Is Being Exposed

Almost a decade ago, the global financial crisis of 2008-09 exposed billions of people to the risks within the global financial/banking sector.  With all this money flowing around the globe and with banks able to facilitate greater and more diverse risk/derivatives investments, the central banks and insurance companies are left with an incredible “black hole” of exposed risk that is almost impossible to quantify.  When we add the shadow/gray market banking risks into this equation and begin to understand the complexity of commodity-backed or Purchase Order backed financing that has become commonplace throughout the planet, we have to ask ourselves one question – “what would it take for these risks to become another crisis?”

Deutsche Bank Massive Exposure Could Cripple Europe

A recent article we found on ZeroHedge highlights the risk exposure from Deutsche Bank and how that derivatives/banking risk could spill over into another global financial market crisis again.

The ZeroHedge article stated that Deutsche Bank has $49 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure, making it the single greatest danger to Europe and global financial institutions imaginable at this time.

This additional article from TheStreet, from May 2016, highlights the continued risks associated with the global financial system and the level of derivatives risk that is inherent in the system.

Here is a quote from that article that attempts to rationalize debt exposure…

”Let’s take the latest data in Deutsche Bank’s annual report for 2015. It shows that the bank’s total, notional exposure to derivatives transactions is 41.9 trillion euros ($46.8 trillion). While that’s more than 35% lower than its 2013 exposure, it still looks huge.

However, after offsetting the positive and negative exposures against each other, the net exposure is a much more manageable 18.2 billion euros ($20.3 billion).”

The data that we’ve been able to find regarding US exposure to the global derivatives market is rather limited in scope.  The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis provides some data, but we believe this data fails to include shadow/gray banking risks.  Traders must be aware of the fact that the global economy has been running on ether after the 2009 market collapse.  Global central banks have poured capital into the markets and foreign economies have consumed vast amounts of easy-money capital to run up huge debt levels while creating massive shadow/gray level financial systems.

In our opinion, the current global banking situation is far more fragile now than it was 10 years ago. The US is in a far better position to handle risks and exposure to risks than it was in 2008-09 and the real issue before us is the level of unknown risks that are a complete black hole in the foreign markets.

Ray Dalio Says Gold Is the Best Asset During Global Financial Reset And Eric Sprott Likes Gold Also.

A recent article by Ray Dalio, he stated gold is the asset in which we should all be accumulating as it will be a top performer globally when things start to fall apart. On May 31st Eric Sprott talked about my gold forecast in detail. Since then I have accumulated more gold and silver from Eric Sprott’s company https://www.SprottMoney.com/ and you should too.


Eric Sprott Gold & Silver

Federal Reserve Bank Data Is A Warning Sign

Ok, now take a look at these graphs from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to see the data that is currently being reported.

Net US Acquisitions of non-derivatives assets have been relatively tame over the past 6+ years.  We can see from this chart the continued acquisition of assets from 2002 through 2007-08 – just before the credit crisis event.  Then, we can see how dramatically the assets were dumped between 2007 and 2009.  We’re not seeing that type of setup or event play out currently in the US.

This next chart highlights the US financial derivatives net position and we can see the peak in 2008-09 and the dramatic deleveraging that has taken place over the past 8+ years.  This chart shows the US financial derivatives levels are less than 25% of the levels from the start of 2008. ($31B vs $125B).

This last chart highlights the fact that US investors and institutions have been deleveraging from derivatives recently – as shown by the net negative transactions data on this chart.  This suggests that investors are worried about the future and have been attempting to remove risk from their investments since the peak in early 2018.  Notice similar net transaction declines in 2014-15 and 2009-10.

We believe the dips in these assets are related to US Quantitative Easing actions and investor concerns regarding the elimination of easy money policies.  We will take a look at when and how these correlations to risk aversion and QE actually take place in Part II.

In the second part of this article, we’ll explore how the US economy, US Fed and global banking sector could be complicating this derivative risk exposure and how traders need to prepare for this event – if it takes place as we suspect.

If you want to see 5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets and global economic downturn just take a look at this short video and charts.

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

On June 17th I showed my chart of the transportation index forming a double top formation. It’s known that the transportation index leads the broad stock market and if the transports are breaking down then we must expect the bear market is close. I then went on to talk about the precious metals breakout with silver and silver miners leading the way. Gold miners broke out as well while gold continued to hold its bullish formation. See Transportation index double top.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared

Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen.  Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections.  We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year.  Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago.  We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.

The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling.  With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders.  What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?

Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.

First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday.  This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week.  A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings.  I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time.  These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.

With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets.  We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ).  At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.

 

Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24).  It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future.  Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms.  The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks.  Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked.  Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong.  We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs.  It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.

 

The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050.  As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations.  Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.

 

Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966).  This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move.  Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other.  We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now.  Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs.  Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months.  But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.

 

Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA.  Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion.  Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation.  We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past.  Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility.  This aligns with our broader market analysis.  The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis.  Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.

 

If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.  Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com