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IS THE OTHER SHOE ABOUT TO DROP WITH FED NEWS?

We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil.  The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now.  Might it be the Fed Meeting?

You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place?  This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors).  This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.

That super-cycle pattern initiated in 2013-2015 and concludes in 2019/2020.  This is one of the reasons why we believed the August 19 date was so important.  It aligned with our price cycle analysis and our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believed this was the date that we would learn the future of the markets and possibly start a bigger price breakdown.

It now appears that the foreign and US credit markets are starting to “freak out” and we may find out that the US Federal Reserve is rushing in to rescue the global markets (again) from their own creation.  The Repo Markets appear to be setting up a massive crisis event as rates skyrocket overnight.  See the article below from ZeroHedge.

Source : Zerohedge.com : “Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-knows-whats-going-repo-market-freezes-overnight-rate-hits-all-time-high-10

Many analysts have discussed the US Dollar shortage in foreign markets that relates to global credit functions, sustainable trade functions and much more.  If the US Dollar shortage is reaching a critical point where foreign markets are unable to function properly and where Repo Rates are reflecting this crisis, we may be on the verge of a much bigger credit crisis event that we have imagined.

In our opinion, the scope and scale of this event depends on the September 17/18 US Fed meeting outcome and the tone of their message afterward.  If the Fed softens and injects capital into the global markets, we may see a bit of a reprieve – even though we may still see concerns weighing on the global markets.  If the Fed allows the card to fall where the may, so to say, we may see a bigger crisis event unfolding over the next 2 to 4 weeks – possibly much longer.

We believe this event is related to the Capital Shift that we have been discussing with you for more than 2+ years.  Capital always seeks out the safest and most secure returns in times of crisis.  Capital will also seek out opportunity at times – only when opportunity is relatively safe compared to risk.  This may be a time when opportunity is limited and the potential for risks/crisis are very elevated.  At those times, capital rushes away from risk and into safety in Cash, Metals and the safest instruments in the global markets – we believe that would likely be the US, Canadian, Japanese, British and Swiss markets/banking systems.

DOW (YM) DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart highlights recent price ranges and shows us what a 1.5x and 2.5x volatility explosion could look like (see the Yellow and Blue highlighted ranges on the right end of the chart).  We believe the event that is setting up, with the US Fed meeting/announcements pending, could prompt a large volatility event over the next few days/weeks/months that may target these expanded volatility ranges.

MIDCAP INDEX DAILY CHART

This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same range expansions (1.5x and 2.5x) related to the recent price ranges in the MidCap Index.  Traders must take a moment to understand how an extremely volatile pricing event within these ranges could create dramatic profit or loss risks.  Imagine what would happen is the MC was suddenly targeting 1775 or 1620 on some type of crisis event – a 20% to 30% price decline.

DAILY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

This Daily TRAN, Transportation Index, chart provides a similar picture of the type of volatility event that we believe could be setting up currently.  From current levels, the Transportation Index could rotate within a  +/- 15~25% price range if a new credit crisis event were to roil the markets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

What can you do about it and how can you protect your investments from this event?  Learn to protect your assets by taking advantage of current high prices, pulling some profits, protect long trades, scale back your active trading and learn to size your trades appropriately.  If you have not already done so, strongly consider a position in precious metals (Gold or Silver) and move a larger portion of your portfolio into CASH.

The risks of another global credit crisis event appear to be starting to show very clear signs right now.  This event will likely be focused on foreign markets – not necessarily focused on the US markets.  We’ve been warning our followers about this type of event for many months now and we are alerting you to the fact that the Repo Markets appear to be screaming a very clear warning that foreign credit many be entering a crisis mode.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

METALS ARE FOLLOWING DOWNSIDE SELL OFF PREDICTION BEFORE THE NEXT RALLY

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.

GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/

GOLD MINERS SELL OFF – DAILY CHART

Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.

The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most.  This new momentum base should setup and complete above $1455~1465 as a true Fibonacci price rotation completes.  The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.

 

CAN YOU OUTPERFORM THE GDXJ?

If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?

Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.

Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

 

 

GOLD EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

The one aspect of all of this that all skilled technical traders need to keep in mind is that this initial upside price move in precious metals is very indicative of extended fear and greed in the global markets.  We all need to understand how every upside move of $10 in Gold related to a new, high, extreme fear level related to the global markets.  The bottom in Gold, near November 2016, was in relation to fear that the global markets would become, potentially, rattled by the new US president.  The continued upside move in Gold is less of that extended fear as we are entering the new US 2020 presidential election cycle.  At this point, it is related to the fear that the global markets have extended beyond means to sustain future growth expectations and that central banks may be losing control (and the ability to manipulate) the global financial markets.

The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.

 

SILVER EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

Our expectations with Silver was that it would stall just below $17, rotate downward briefly and then begin another upside move – somewhat inline with Gold.  What really happened is that Silver prices extended to levels just below $20 before weakening.  This is partially due to the fact that metals suddenly became more “in focus” for global investors and also partially due to the fact that Silver suddenly became a “hot topic” because of the Gold/Silver ratio that continued to stay above 86~89.  Once traders realized the incredible value that Silver really presented – it seemed everyone started piling into the silver trade and we believe this increased volume drove prices towards the $20 level.

Still, Silver has recently rotated lower again, moving to levels below $18 and following Gold into a momentum basing pattern.  We do believe Silver and Gold may have a bit further to go to the downside before really finding support.  Our researchers believe Silver may target the $17 price level before completing the momentum base.  If this is the case, skilled traders should look for opportunities below $17.40 and get set up for the next upside price leg.

 

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up within the next 10~15+ days – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Bitcoin Setting Up For Another Drop

Last year just days before the big Bitcoin breakdown we notified everyone publicly to get ready for a swift drop from $6000 to $4000 which played out perfectly within a few days. Our cycle system and technical analysis skills combined can pack a powerful punch and this one of those incredible moves where the stars aligned for us as traders.

October 12, 2018 – Post and Chart Here

 

We then further updated our followers in March of this year that a breakout was about to take place and a run to $6000 should take place. After that upside breakout move on April 8th, we posted this video further confirming $5800-$6000 was still the target.

Today/May Bitcoin appears to be setting up a broader top formation that suggests another move lower is about to unfold.

This first Daily chart highlights both support and resistance in Bitcoin.  The Resistance goes all the way back to July 2018 where a Three River Morning Star pattern set up a gap with a Doji Star formation.  This created the support level that was ultimately broken in November 2018.  Support formed near $4000 in early 2019 with similar types of gap formations.  This support level was ultimately broken in April 2019 with a move back up to resistance near $6000.

 

We believe the setup of the most recent price activity is setting up a classic three mountains top formation.  A weak price rotation prompting a downside price move right now could be a short term ultimately top with next support near $5000. We believe a fairly quick downside price move toward the $4400 level (or lower) – near support.

Once price move to near the $4400 price level, or lower, if the support level is broken, we could see the price of Bitcoin fall all the way towards the $3500 level or lower.  Fibonacci price theory suggests the failed high price move, near $7500, would represent a major failed high.  This failure suggests a move lower attempting to establish a new price low.  For this to happen, the price of Bitcoin would have to fall below $3000 which may sound crazy, but so was $20,000 bitcoin!

Watch for a reversal to unfold in the coming days, could be another opportunity to profit from another cryptocurrency collapse. Any failure of this breakdown/reversal move would suggest Bitcoin is setting up a new Pennant/Flag formation where the price will trade sideways before prompting a bigger breakout move.  We believe a price breakdown is about to unfold and we expect prices to fall below $4400 within 14 to 28 days.

If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com