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Treasuries Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.

Our belief is that further economic concerns related to trade, foreign economic metrics and data and the forward perspective of many emerging and foreign markets will continue to weaken much more dramatically than the US or other major global economies.  Thus, we believe capital will continue to pour into the US and more mature major global economic markets (Canada, Japan, Great Britain, Swiss) as a move to safety just as capital is moving into the precious metals markets.

When fear enters the global markets, capital seeks out the safest and most secure environments for investment.  If the rest of the world’s economies are becoming weaker and more fragile as trade and economic factors continue to hit the news wires, the more mature major economic countries are naturally going to benefit from their more robust and secure economic power and strength.  The flight to safety will result in capital moving away from risk and into the safety of these more mature economies simply because they provide a level of security and risk aversion that can’t be found elsewhere. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

DAILY TLT CHART

This Daily TLT chart highlights the resistance level that we believe is current constricting the current price advance from breaking higher.  We believe this resistance channel is causing the TLT price to pause below $147 and will continue to keep prices within this channel until some economic news event or positive US economic news item pushes the price higher.  The US and global markets are waiting for some type of news event before attempting to make another move.  We believe the future news will result in an upside technical breakout and a new rally towards the $152 to $155 level in TLT.

WEEKLY TLT CHART

This Weekly TLT chart highlights the extended bullish price rally that started back in late October 2018.  This upside price move has already rallied more than 40%, but we don’t believe it is over yet.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting $154 to $155 is the next upside price target.  To be a bit more conservative, we’ve targeted the $152 level for skilled traders to work with.  Once price achieves the $152 target level, look to cover any open long trades you may have.

If you are an active trader of gold, gold stocks, bonds, or the SP500 and would like to hear a trading style that reduces the amount of trades you take while making the same or better returns listen to this conversion with Adam Johnson who is an x-Bloomberg anchor, and now active trader.

Understanding how pricing and global market dynamics work throughout the stock market and the global market can be confusing at times.  How can one attempt to understand what will move in a certain direction, why it will move that way and how one can profit from these opportunities and be difficult for many people to grasp.  We do our best to try to help you by highlighting trade setups, explaining our thinking and research, sharing some of the charts with our proprietary trading tools and to help you identify strong opportunities for success.

Bonds are likely to continue to trade in a sideways price range before breaking higher near the end of 2019.  This aligns with our expectations that foreign markets may come under intense economic pressure while the US economy continues to provide safety for investors for the long term.  The support level above 157 is critical going forward.

DAILY PRICE CYCLE PREDICTED PRICE TREND

While cycle analysis helps us paint a clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on my market trend charts to know when I should be buying or selling positions.

THE TECHNICAL TRADERS CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Right now, we believe the markets are waiting for some news events to make their next move.  This is the time to take very measured positions when trading.  This is NOT the time to go “all-in” on some trade.  Be prepared for a spike in volatility and a new price trend to establish within the next 3 to 10 trading days.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Today to Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar with a subscription – Offer Ends This Week!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar – How It All Relates – Part II

This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets.  We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.

Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.

One of the primary reasons for this shift in the markets is the strength of the US Dollar and the US Stock Market (as well as the strength in other mature economies).  The capital shift that began to take place in 2013-2014 was a shift away from risk and towards safer, more mature economic sources.  This shift continues today – in an even more heightened environment.  The volatility we are seeing in the US and foreign markets is related to this shift taking place as well as the currency valuation changes that continue to rattle the global markets.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

It is our opinion that, at some point, the support levels in foreign markets may collapse while the US and major mature global economies become safe-havens for assets.  When this happens, we’ll see the US Dollar rally even further which will push many foreign currencies into further despair.  The overall strength of the US Dollar is being supported by this continued capital shift and the way that global assets are seeking safety and security.  The same thing is happening in precious metals.

We believe the current setup in the US markets is indicative of a breakout/breakdown FLAG/Pennant formation.  We believe this current setup should prompt a very volatile price swing in the markets over the next 3 to 6+ months which may become the start of a broader event playing out in the foreign markets.  How this relates to precious metals is simply – more fear, more greed, more uncertainty equals a very strong rally in precious metals over the next 12+ months.

Dow Jones Index Chart

This Dow Jones chart highlights what we believe is a very strong Resistance Channel that needs to be broken if the US stock market is going to attempt to push higher in the future.  You can also see the BLUE lines we’ve drawn on this chart that sets up the FLAG/Pennant formation.  Although price broke through the lows of the FLAG/Pennant formation, we still consider it valid because it confirms on other US major indexes.  Should the Dow Jones fail to move above the previous price high, near early July 2019, then we believe the Resistance Channel will reject price near current levels and force it lower (filling a recent gap and targeting the $25,500 level or lower).

Custom Volatility Index Chart

Our Custom Volatility Index chart shows a similar type of setup.  Price weakness is evident near the upper channel level of this chart.  This chart is very helpful for our research team because it puts price peaks and troughs into perspective within a “channeling-type” of rotating range.  You can see that previous major price peaks have always settled above 16 or 17 on this chart.  And previous major price bottoms have always settled below 7 or 8 on this chart.  The current price volatility level is just above 13 – just entering the weakness zone in an uptrend.  If price were to fail near this level, a move toward 8 would not be out of the question.  We just have to watch and see how price reacts over the next few weeks to determine if these weakness channels will push price lower.

Gold Monthly Chart

If our research is correct, the entire move higher in precious metals, originating near the bottom in December 2015, is a complex wave formation setting up a WAVE 1 upside move.  This complex wave formation is likely to consist of a total of 5 price waves (as you can see from the chart below) and will likely end with Gold trading well above the $2000 price level near or before June 2020.

If this analysis is correct, we are about to enter a very big, volatile and potentially violent price move in the global markets that could rip your face off if you are not prepared.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS”

This BEAST of a market is about to explode as we’ve highlighted by this research and these charts.  It may start ripping our faces off in less than 30 days or it could take longer.  One thing is for sure, the global markets are set up for something big and precious metals are beating our foreheads saying “hey, look over here!!  This is where risk is trailing into as the markets continue to set up for this volatile price move!!”.

If you are not ready for this move, then we suggest you visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these big swings in the markets.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime 

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies

As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies.  Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.

Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others.  The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment.  Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.

Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies

The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher.  We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals.  As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further.

These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies.  In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD).  In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD).  In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD).  In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY).  In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR).  The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.

The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years.  As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments.  The hunt for more secure investment sources was on.

When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place.  All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018.  Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace.

In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets.  This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Rising US Dollar Mutes Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets

The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy.  The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed.  Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90.  Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation.  Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.

We believe the recent rallies in Gold and Silver related to this US Dollar strength are something every trader should consider relative to the real perspective of the global markets.  Gold and Silver have become extremely expensive in certain foreign markets because of currency price levels and the stronger US Dollar typically mutes price rallies in precious metals.  Therefore, the combination of a strong US Dollar and a rising metals price suggests “this time is different”.

We are starting to see news posts of how unique this setup really is in relation to traditional market dynamics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-breaks-away-emerging-market-103653513.html

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/personalfinance/why-is-gold-suddenly-so-expensive/ar-AAGqZKE?li=AAggbRN

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/gold-gains-set-off-silver-scramble-as-investors-play-catch-up

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-crosses-record-rs-40000-mark-as-recession-fears-seep-in/articleshow/70892512.cms

The reality is that no matter what happens in the US Dollar or other foreign currencies, Gold and Silver are in very high demand as investors continue to pour assets into precious metals – which have quickly become one of the best-performing assets for 2019 and very likely for 2020 and beyond.

This Daily US Dollar Index chart highlights the strength of the US Dollar over the past 6+ months.  The ability of the US Dollar to continue to trade above 96~97 and push higher towards the 99 ~ 100 level shows the very high demand for US Dollars throughout the globe and the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to much weaker foreign currencies.  With the expectation of a weakening global economy, trade issues, negative interest rates, and bankrupt nations watching their futures spiral completely out of control, investors are naturally seeking out the strongest, safest assets – and are not seeking the highest potential returns.  This is a shift to safety.

We believe that gold is about to launch into a new upside leg once it breaches our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level near 1550.  The new upside target is $1625 or higher – where $1700+ could be the real upside objective for Gold.  If the US dollar rotated a bit lower after setting the new highs near 99, Gold could explode to the upside on moderate US Dollar weakness.

This Weekly chart of the Gold to Silver ratio highlights what we believe will be the next upside price leg for Gold over the next 6+ months.  We believe the true upside for Gold is 25 to 30% from current levels.  That puts our upside target near $2000 to $2100 near the end of 2019.  If that is the case, and silver continues to rally faster than Gold, then Silver could easily rally 30 to 50% from current levels.

If gold does what we believe is possible over the next 6+ months, then Silver will likely target the $26 price level fairly quickly, then push even higher and attempt to reach levels above $31 to $40 before the end of 2019.  We believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue and the rally in metals will continue as the shifting environment of the global markets continues to drive investors into safety.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This could be the “once in a lifetime” trade fore those of you that followed our research.  We’ve been warning about this move for many years and have clearly illustrated the breakout opportunities in both Gold and Silver related to the US Dollar and foreign currencies over the past 12+ months.

You still have time to get into both the Gold and Silver trade if you believe our analysis is correct.  This move will likely continue for many months into the future – well into and past the 2020 US presidential election event.  The markets wait for no man or woman.  This shift in the global markets is different than 2008-09.  The reason it is different should be clearly evident in the strength of the US Dollar and the early shift in the precious metals markets that didn’t happen in 2008-09.  Something is spooking global investors into metals and we believe we know what it is – the mature credit cycle rooted in foreign market credit/debt exposure/liability.

It is our opinion that the falling foreign currencies and lower economic expectations are related to the fact that global foreign markets took advantage of the cheap US Dollar between 2010 and 2014, borrowed like fools and leveraged their economies to the max while never expecting the economic shift to happen quite like this.  Now, with credit and debt piled up in the expensive US Dollar, weak economic and trade data and outlooks and further concern originating from the “grey/shadow banking sector” – we believe the dance has already begun and investors know the tune.  Run into safety – run into Gold/Silver and the US Dollar.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Predictive Modeling Suggest Oil Headed Much Lower

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil will likely continue to find resistance near $64 as a price ceiling and trend lower over the next 3 to 5 months – eventually breaking below the $40 price level near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.

Our research team believes this move could very well be contingent on a continued decline in global economic activity as well as our research suggesting that global currencies could be setting up for a breakdown event.

The USA and FED will do everything in their powers to keep the economy looking strong and to hold markets up like talking about rate cuts, but eventually the music will stop, but until then we need to be long and strong stocks and keep a close eye on leading indicators like small caps, oil, transportation and industrial sectors for early warning signs.

Please read the following research posts for more information:

Report #1: PART III – DEBT CRISIS TO BE REBORN IN 2020

Report #2: KING DOLLAR RIDES HIGHER CREATING PRESSURES ON FOREIGN ECONOMIES

Report #3: FEAR DRIVES MARKET EXPECTATIONS

We believe the breakdown in support for Crude Oil will coincide with a general perception of global economic weakness, foreign Central Bank posturing and the possibility that foreign currency weakness may push global demand for Oil much lower than current expectations.

The volatility increased suggested near the right side of this chart, in late 2019 and early 2020, are indicative of oil prices reaching a critical support level while attempting to re-balance supply/demand-side economic factors against historic price lows.  This will likely become a period where global oil traders feel the need to try to push oil prices higher while supply/demand factors settle to establish a basis price level for future price trends.

IN CONCLUSION:

If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019.  This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50.  After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.

As we’ve continued to state, 2019 and 2020 are going to include incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders and investors.  Think about how a more like this in Oil and the global markets will reflect into the precious metals markets and the US Dollar?

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPS
AND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE GOLD BAR and enough trades to profit through the next metals
bull market and financial crisis!

SUBSCRIBE -> FREE GOLD BAR -> GET WINNING TRADES

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher

Almost counter to current institutional thinking, the strength in the US Dollar will likely continue to push the US stock market higher over the next few weeks/months and act as a supporting price bias in any event of a short term global/us stock market price collapse.  Many traders/investors fail to understand the capacity of the US Dollar to wreak havoc on foreign markets as well as to act as a support level for US equities and US investments.

The support level near $96 is currently acting as a solid price floor.  Our researchers believe an attempt to breach the $99 level will happen soon and this continued strength will put further pressures on foreign currencies, commodities, metals and trade issues.

These shifting dynamics of the currency markets are presenting very clear evidence that investors believe stronger, more mature economies are going to continue to perform over the future months that weaker, more at-risk economies.  The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar are all performing quite well in this Year-To-Date comparison graph (below).  The New Zealand Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar are all dramatically weaker.

Our research team put this comparison chart together to further illustrate the weakness of Asian currencies in relation to the relative strength of the US and major global currencies.  This chart attempt to compare currency strength by grouping relative currency pairs and comparing them as an Asian Currency Group vs a Global Major Currency Group.  As price advances, the Asian Currency Group is relatively stronger overall.  As price declines, the Asian Currency Group is weakening and the Global Major Currency Group is strengthening.

Currently, this chart shows the fragility of the Asian Currency Group.  Any break of the lower price channel level and we enter a new downside price trend that may attempt to establish a much lower price support channel for Asian Currencies, Asian Stock Markets, and the overall global markets.

Our researchers believe the continued strength of the US Dollar and the US stock market are pushing historical normal price ranges beyond expected boundaries.  As gold increases because of fear and greed, countries with larger gold reserves can attempt to offset certain losses from currency and economic weakness.  Yet companies and governments that attempted to leverage the “Dollar Carry Trade” environment from years ago may find themselves in very dangerous territory as Asian currencies continue to weaken.

A stronger US Dollar will attempt to mute the upside price activity of Gold and Silver while pushing these currencies into deeper and deeper valuation declines.  See our recent charts and short term dollar/gold forecast here. A continued shifting of capital away from “at-risk” economies/nations could push these currencies into a death spiral type of free-fall over time.

We believe the US Dollar will continue to move moderately higher over the next 4+ weeks and likely attempt to move towards the $99 price level.  This move will somewhat mute the advance of Gold and Silver, yet we believe the weakness that is likely to unfold in the foreign currency markets will prompt renewed fear and greed – pushing Gold prices much higher – even as the US Dollar continues to strengthen.

Once the XAUUSD level breaks the $1440 level – it should rally up to the $1615 to $1625 level very quickly.  This would likely be the breaking point for the Asian currencies as well.  A move like that would likely push these Asian currencies below historical price envelopes and create a panic-type of a capital shift away from risk.

Our research team believes this move will likely happen sometime between Mid-August and early September 2019.  This means we are only about 35 to 45 days away from an incredibly volatile price swing in the global markets.  This is something that most traders/investors have failed to even begin to comprehend or consider.

What would happen if the Asian capital markets and currencies collapsed on broad weakness and a major credit/debt crisis event?  An event where currencies devalue to a level that suggests forward operations are severely threatened, the rising price of Gold is not offsetting losses and commodity prices collapse pushing even further pressures on commodity/currency backed loans/debt?

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPS
AND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE GOLD BAR and enough trades to profit through the next metals
bull market and financial crisis!

SUBSCRIBE -> STACK GOLD BAR -> GET WINNING TRADES

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls

The Federal Reserve announced they were leaving rates unchanged on Wednesday, June 19.  The markets were expecting this or a quarter percent price decrease.  Initially, the markets reacted to the news by moving to the downside recently. The markets immediately reversed the upside rather dramatically showing that investors believed that that may move into an easy stance within a few months.

The big movers after the bad news which we expected were in gold, silver, miners and the US dollar.  Subscribers locked in another 17.4% winning trade on this fed news while the US dollar rotated lower on Tuesday, June 18 prompting a further downside move after the bad news. It is very likely that the US dollar will move lower an attempt to retest support near 96.50.  A weakening US dollar will help to support the US stock market and precious metals prices.  Additionally, a weaker US dollar will help support trade, economic growth, employment, and GDP output.

We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance.  We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY.  This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.

Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.

The transportation index paints a very clear picture of price channels, support and resistance, and expected price rotation going forward. The current price channels indicate a high target area near 5250.  This upward channel range is still only 3% or 4% higher from current levels.

After this peak level is reached the market should reverse downward attempting to retest support. We believe we are very close to a market top at this point and believe that the US stock market may attempt to move above the major psychological levels – as indicated above.

There are a few items which could change our outlook currently.

A.  Positive news regarding trade issues with China

B.  Renewing or new central bank easing policies

C.  Any type of dramatic positive economic news

D.  China attempting to resolve banking issues by taking the problems and addressing them with capital/gold reserves.

Ideally, there are quite a few opportunities for the stock market rally far beyond the psychological levels. Yet with only about 14 months to go before the US presidential elections and no indication that any of our four critical components for renewed price advance are anywhere close to being accomplished, we hold to the belief that the markets will complete the Pennant/Flag formation as we have originally been stating.

We urge traders to pay attention to precious metals and the US and foreign stock markets as we enter this critical phase of the market. We believe the US stock market will continue to rotate within the channels clearly on the transportation index chart.  We believe any excessive fear will become evident in the bond markets and precious metals well before the US stock market rotates lower.

In our opinion, this is not the time to buy into technology or the US stock market expecting a massive breakout to the upside. We are urging our clients to be very cautious over the next 30 to 60 days and to trade with short profit targets in mind. There are a lot of moving components throughout the global economy and we are urging our members to be very aware of the larger patterns that are setting up.

Our super cycle research has given us a very clear picture as to what to expect over the next 16 months or longer.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

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Chris Vermeulen

US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom?

The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50.  This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about.  Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.

This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.

It is important to understand the strength in the US dollar and the US economy should continue unless something interrupts the growth and continued out what from the US. It is very likely capital will continue to seek out the best returns and the best safety which we believe is available only in the US right now. Eventually, things may change where foreign markets become more opportunistic for investors and capital begins to shift away from the US markets. Until that happens we believe the US markets will continue to drive higher and likely push towards new all-time highs.

The strength of the US dollar is muting the upside potential in precious metals as well as the US stock market. We believe the underlying strength and opportunities resulting from the capital shift, where capital is rushing into US markets, will eventually override the strength of the US dollar. In other words, investors will continue to pour money into US stocks and into precious metals as a protection mechanism against risk while the US dollar continues to rise.  If and when the US dollar does rate below the lower price channel, the US stock market may likely breakdown as well and precious metals should skyrocket higher. Until that time, we expect a moderate price advance to continue in the US stock market major and mid-cap sectors, the US dollar, and precious metals.

Gold will likely rally from the 1340 level to just below 1380 on the next leg. Then Gold will likely cause and rotate to near 1360, pause briefly, then rally to levels above 1400. We believe this rally may happen before July 12-15, 2019.

Follow our research to stay ahead of the market moves.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 will include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We’ve also been calling these major moves very accurately. With the US elections only 15 months away, we urge all traders and investors to pay very close attention to our research and insights.

We have recently suggested that a major price may set up in late August or early September 2019. Once we get to this date or closer to this inflection point, we’ll provide more insight as to what our modeling systems are suggesting.

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Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who joins me with a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription if you a current subscriber or join one of these two exciting offers below, and you will receive:

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Chris Vermeulen

King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies

One of the biggest movers of the day on Friday was the US dollar.  The US stock market appeared very weak prior to the opening bell and precious metals, especially gold, appeared to be rocketing higher.  Almost right from the open, the markets washed out the fear and changed direction. The US dollar did the same thing.

This renewed strength in the US dollar continues to baffle foreign investors and foreign governments as they continue to try to support their economies and currencies against a stronger and more agile US economy and currency. Even as the US dollar strength is frustrating many investors, it is also attempting to keep a lid on traditional safe havens such as precious metals.

This further complicates many foreign nations because their gold reserves are not appreciating at the same rate that their currencies are devaluing. Couple that with capital outflows, consumer protectionism, waning economic outputs, and the need to protect local currencies to avoid populist panic, and King Dollar seems to be riding high.

A friend of ours and foreign currency trader suggested we read the article below today.

Does China have enough US dollars to survive the US trade war?

We’ve authored many articles about the US dollar over the past few months.  We believe the strength in the US dollar will continue and that a support level above $92 is likely to continue to support the price for some time. That being said, the current price rotation near $96.50 provides a recent low price rotation level that could turn into future support after recent highs near $98.40 are broken.

Many times you’ve probably read our comments about a “capital shift” and how this shifting capital across the planet will be driving future investment in the US and other foreign markets.  At this point in time, it’s almost like a dog chasing its tail.  The more support the US dollar receives, the more pressure there is for foreign markets to support their currencies and economies. The weaker foreign economies become and foreign currencies devalue, the more demand for US dollars increases to help offset local weakness. It starting to become a vicious cycle.

We believe the defined price channel between the two magenta colored lines will continue to dominate US dollar price activity until price breaks through either the upper or lower range of this price channel. The current support near $96.50, will likely turn into a new price floor once price breaks above $99.

There are a number of factors that could ease the upward pricing pressure in the US dollar.  First, increased economic output and activity in foreign markets illustrating economic growth and prosperity would likely ease the capital shift into the US stock market and US dollar. Once foreign markets begin to act as though real opportunity exists over an extended period of time, then the dominance of the US dollar may begin to weaken.

Additionally, suitable trade deals, such as we witnessed between the US and Mexico recently, will help to alleviate currency pricing pressures on foreign currencies. This strength in foreign currencies presents an opportunity for global investors to take advantage of pricing gains.

Stronger foreign currency valuations and economic output will help to ease the US dollar dominance eventually.  Until that happens, as traders we need to be aware of the pricing issues related to the capital shift that is taking place, the pricing pressures on precious metals, and the likelihood that foreign investors will continue to pile into US equities while King Dollar is dominating.

Pay very close attention to foreign market weakness and news of banking issues or government bailouts of foreign banks. Much like the US credit crisis in 2008/2009, bank failures and extended credit risk exposure can lead to waterfall events.  This would be our biggest fear for the global economy if foreign governments and banking institutions are not properly prepared for extended devaluation periods. If things really started to crumble overseas we could see gold and the dollar move up together, it has happened before in times of crisis.

We’ll keep you informed as we see things transpire. In the meantime, King Dollar rides high end of the sunset and foreign governments/nations will continue to attempt to support their economies and currencies. Eventually, the fear factor will push precious metals broadly higher.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Happy Fathers Day Guys!
Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation

As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk.  We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.

The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60.  Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally.  Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.

We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth.  Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets.

This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up.  Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower.  This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction.

We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit.  We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy.  Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%.  We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k.

Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts.

This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high.  We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance.  We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.

This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High.  This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish.  Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES.  Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant.

The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect.  This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.

Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart.  We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs.

We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward.  If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move.

Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still.  We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market.

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com