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Election Year Cycles – What to Expect?

Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events.  Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric.  The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar – yet still important for our researchers.

The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets.  Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.

We’ve published research articles about this technical setup/pattern that occurs in the markets nearly 8 to 15+ months before the US Presidential election cycle before. The basic theory of the setup/pattern is as follows…

_  12+ months prior to the election date, the parties consolidate around specific candidates where the first battles of the US presidential election cycle conclude.

_  Over the next 12 months, the battle between the selected candidates becomes more heated and aggressive as voters are pushed information and disinformation related to their decisions.

_  The process of the election and the decision-making process for consumers/voters is very stressful and distracts from the normal economic activity for many.  This distraction translates into an indecisive market where future expectations (optimism and pessimism) greatly depend on the outcome of the election.  Thus, the markets are stuck in a “no man’s land” type of “stasis” waiting for the election event to conclude.

Depending on the events that lead up to the election date, the stock market could be biased towards a bullish trend or a bearish trend which can have a big impact on the pre and post-election outcomes.

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S&P 500 INDEX 2006-09 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE

Lets start by taking a look at the 2006-09 (2008 US election cycle) data/chart.  First, we can see the price trend in 2006-07 was moderately bullish within the early election cycle.  The first real signs of a crisis in the markets took place in mid-2007 where a deep low price move setup a double-bottom. Near the end of 2007 and into very early 2008, the stock market collapsed below those lows and never really recovered.  The real collapse in price began in June 2008 – after a moderate price recovery from the new lows. Price continued to collapse more aggressively just prior to the election date and even after the election was completed.

Yes, we know this collapse was related to the 2008-09 Housing/Credit market crisis and was not related to the directly related to the Presidential election event.  Yet, we, as technicians, believe price translates all external factors into a form that we can use to derive future information from.  The point we want to try to make is that election cycle years tend to be much more volatile and aggressive.

The pre-election price declines appear to set up a bottom or double-bottom price level 12 to 15+ months prior to the election date.  After that completes, the markets may attempt to rally above previous highs at some point, but will likely attempt to retest recent lows 4 to 12 months prior to the election date.  As voters/consumers’ attention is consumed by the election process, news and rhetoric, consumers change their habits and become more protective of their assets and future expenses.

The one thing to consider when reviewing this chart is that the uncertainty and indecision in the markets related to the Presidential election cycle were compounded by the collapse of the housing, financial, and credit markets. This event created additional price and economic concerns fairly early in 2008.  Additionally, pay attention to the June 2008 change in price trend that sets up a deeper downside price collapse.

S&P 500 INDEX 2014-2017 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE

This next chart is the 2014-2017 US Presidential Election cycle and this chart highlights a very different time in US history.  There was no massive housing/credit crisis event.  There was no massive implosion of the US or global markets taking place throughout this time.  There was only a heated battle between two candidates.  The chart shows how 2015, nearly 12 months prior to the election date, the market price collapsed twice to complete a double-bottom pattern.  This pattern seems to set up prior to election cycles with fairly high consistency.

As we progress to the 12 month period just before the election date (highlighted in CYAN), we can see the 2016 election year resulted in a moderate upside price bias after establishing a bottom very early in 2016.  Still, there was a decent amount of volatility throughout the year – particularly in June and the 60 days prior to the actual election date.

Remember, other than political drama, this election cycle didn’t include any massive economic crisis events which could have altered the direction of the markets closer to the election date.  The deeper double-bottoms set up the price range headed into the election date and the lack of surprise/crisis events prompted a moderate upside price bias leading into the election event.

S&P 500 CURRENT 2017-2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE

Now, we take a look at the current 2017-2020 setup.  This time, because of the prior extended rally in the markets from 2017, we’ve seen a series of deeper price lows setups into an expanding bottom/downward sloping price trend.  This is somewhat unusual and suggests volatility is excessive at this time in the markets. We’ve also experienced the COVID-19 virus event occur, which is acting like the 2008 housing/financial crisis event.

At this point, heading into early June 2020 and understanding that these Presidential election cycle events typically result in much greater volatility as we get closer to the election date, our research team believes the June through August period could prompt a broad market downside retracement which coincides with Q2 data/expectations.  The month of June prior to the election date (Q2) appears to be a very instrumental period for the markets.

The downward sloping lows on this chart suggest a deeper price rotation may occur as the markets move closer to the election date and continue to process the technical and economic data.  The uncertainty related to Presidential election cycles is still at play in the markets. Should some type of crisis event unfold in the midst of the final 5 to 6 months prior to the election date, the risk of a downside price event would become much more excessive.

GDP BASED RECESSION INDICATOR

Currently, the COVID-19 virus event has set up a critical price event headed into the 2020 Presidential election cycle which is somewhat similar to the 2008 election cycle.  Pay attention to the GDP Based Recession Indicator chart below.  Notice how the 2008 election cycle correlated with a massive increase in the GDP Based Recession Indicator?  Now, see how the current GDP Based Recession Indicator has already begun to spike upward?  Unlike what happened in 2016 where the GDP Based Recession Indicator stayed below 30, the current level of this indicator suggests a crisis event is beginning to unfold in 2020.

If this crisis event continues, the process where the price will attempt to properly identify risks and valuation levels will likely take place over the next 8 to 12+ months – which is very similar to what happened in 2008 and 2009.  Our researchers believe June 2020 could become a critical month for price activity where the future price trends are established.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Currently, we are urging our friends and followers to stay overly cautious of this upward price trend in the US stock markets.  Even though we have seen the NQ and other sectors rally to near all-time highs, we believe the markets are still excessively volatile and the indecision leading up to a Presidential election cycle could prompt some really big price moves in the future.  We are still trading the long side of the market and advising our clients to take very low-risk trades which have been properly sized.  This is a traders market where skilled technical traders can find incredible gains.

June through August will likely become critical in regards to the future price trends and will likely determine if the markets continue to push higher or rotate downward as concerns and potential crisis events continue to unfold.  Historically, June through August prior to a Presidential election cycle are very important measures of what happens near and after the election event.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Comparing Bitcoin to Other Sectors – Risk vs. Value

Quite a few traders have been discussing the recent rally of Bitcoin to recently breach the $10,000 level on May 7, 2020.  This psychological price level is a major milestone for Bitcoin – even though the price has fallen into an extended Flag/Pennant formation since reaching the recent peak.  Many traders and speculators are expecting Bitcoin to rally alongside the precious metals sector as there appears to be a strong belief that Bitcoin aligns with precious metals well.  Our researchers attempted to put this assumption into a simple test and this is what we found. Bitcoin appears to be similarly volatile in comparison to precious metals, although the overall trending of Bitcoin has been moderately lower since the peak levels in February 2020 whereas the Gold/Silver sectors have seen advancing price activity over the same span of time.  Precious metals rallied much quicker after the bottom near March 2020 whereas Bitcoin didn’t really begin to rally until late April 2020. Because of this disconnect in price association, we don’t believe Bitcoin is aligned with the precious metals segment. Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be aligned with the price action of the Dow Jones either. Initially, after the peak in February 2020, the price alignment between Bitcoin and the DJI was almost in sync.  A broader price disconnect appears to be more evident in late April where Bitcoin rallied and the Dow Jones stayed rather flat.  Because of this shift in price alignment – we believe Bitcoin is not aligned with the Dow Jones well enough to derive any cross-market correlation.

BITCOIN – DOW JONES – METALS CHART

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Additionally, we attempted to compare Bitcoin to major consumer sectors (communications, staples, and utilities) to see if we could find any measurable correlation to these sectors in relation to Bitcoin price activity.  Again, the early price alignment of all of these seemed somewhat in-sync in the early downside price collapse in February 2020.  Yet that alignment quickly deteriorated in early March 2020 as Bitcoin prices collapsed and bottomed while the consumer sectors continued to trend a bit lower until after March 20, 2020.  The one thing we did notice is that the consumer sectors appear to be much less volatile than Bitcoin in both downside and upside price activity.

BITCOIN – COMMUNICATIONS – STAPLES – UTILITIES

Lastly, we compared Bitcoin to the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 attempting to find any price correlation between these major market sectors.  Although the price correlation is not perfect, our researcher believes Bitcoin is moderately closely correlated to the Russell 200 more than any other symbol/sector we have attempted to analyze.  Many of the bigger, more prominent, upward, and downward price cycles/trends seems to align with the Russell 2000 price action (often within 1 or 2 days of the Bitcoin trends – if not immediately). For example, the bottom/base near April 21 aligned almost perfectly between the two symbols, the rally starting near April 25 began 1 day apart on both symbols, the peak in price before a moderate selloff on March 26 happened on almost the same day for both symbols, the moderate upside peak before the big collapse on March 4 occurred only one day apart.  Even though there is a broad price volatility difference between Bitcoin and the Russell 2000, the correlations between the two symbols seem much more aligned than any symbols we’ve attempted to run other comparisons. We will add that appears a recent shift in price activity may be starting to disassociate Bitcoin to the Russell 2000 over the past 7+ days.  Our researchers have identified the Russell 2000 (and other consumer sectors) appear to be attracting new investments from skilled technical traders while the major sectors appear to be weakening.  We believe this is because capital is shifting away from already pricey assets and moving into undervalued assets that may do well as the recovery strengthens.

BITCOIN – NASDAQ 100 – RUSSELL 2000

Will Bitcoin continue to rally above the $10,000 level?  Eventually, the answer to that question is “probably – yes”.  The one thing we want to bring to our reader’s attention is the immediate downside price correlation of Bitcoin to all of the various sectors and symbols we’ve presented today.  When a broader downside price collapse happens in the US/Global markets – it appears Bitcoin is not immune or considered a decentralized asset class in any form.  Bitcoin seems much more aligned with the Dow Jones and/or the Russell 2000 than any other symbols/sectors. Because of this alignment, we suggest traders watch the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 for price trend correlations that may relate to how Bitcoin price activity may react in the near future.  Until this correlation is broken, we believe the alignment in price is relatively predictable for skilled technical traders. I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategies Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Metals Nearing Critical Momentum For New Parabolic Rally

While the US stock market has rallied over the past 5+ weeks, Gold has stalled near $1730 to $1740.  We issued a research post suggesting the GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc was acting as major resistance and once that level is breached, we expect a big upside move in Gold.  Currently, Gold has reached just above the Green Price Amplitude Arc and this week may be a critical moment for both Gold and Silver in terms of a momentum base. Gold has continued to move high in a series of waves – moving higher, then stalling/basing, then attempting another move higher.  This recent base near $1740, after the deeper price rotation in February/March, confirms our 2018/2019 predictive modeling research suggesting that $1750 would be a key level in the near future.  Part of that research suggested once $1750 is breached, then a bigger upside move would take place targeting levels above $2400 – eventually targeting $3750. April 25, 2020: Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs Predict Big Gold Breakout

GOLD FUTURES WEEKLY CHART

This consolidation after the COVID-19 event near $1750 is a very real confirmation for our researchers that the upside breakout move is about to happen.  How soon?  It could begin to break out next week of the following week?  How high could it go?  Our upside target is $2000 to $2100 initially – but Gold could rally to levels near $2400 on this next breakout move.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals  before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

SILVER FUTURES WEEKLY CHART

While Gold has been consolidating near $1740, Silver has exhibited an incredible upside price move after a very clear Flag/Pennant formation (highlighted in YELLOW on the chart below).  The current upside price rally in Silver appears as though it may breach the MAGENTA downward sloping trend-line and this breakout move may prompt a rally to levels near or above $21 over the next few weeks. Eric Sprott is very excited about silver and miners. Also, he talks about the demand for physical delivery which is way out of whack and how something could finally give which would be metals go parabolic. We’ve been suggesting that metals will transition into a moderate parabolic upside price trend as the global markets deal with concerns related to economic activity, debt, solvency, and continued operational issues.  For skilled technical traders, this setup in Metals may be a very good opportunity for skilled technical traders to establish hedging positions in ETFs or physical metals before the breakout really solidifies.

Concluding Thoughts:

Longer-term, we believe metals could continue to rally for quite a while, yet we understand skilled technical traders want to time entries to limit risks.  We believe skilled technical traders should consider hedging their portfolio with a moderate position in Metals/Miners at this time – allowing traders to trade the remaining portion of their portfolio in other sectors/stocks. If the US/Global markets continue to struggle to move higher over the next 60 to 90+ days, metals/miners should continue to push higher – possibly entering a new parabolic upside price move.  The deep washout low in Silver was an incredible opportunity for skilled traders to jump into Silver miners and Silver ETFs at extremely low price levels.  Now, with Silver at $18.40, it’s time to start thinking about $21+ Silver and $2100+ Gold. Now is the time to really tune up your trading and get ready for some really great trading opportunities. You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop. I offer trading signals for active traders, long-term passive investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth. Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/tti to learn more about our passive long term investing signals, Also, get our swing trading signals here www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/ttt.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple. Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of Technical Trader Ltd.

Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming

Current data released for the May Real Estate and Consumer Spending activity suggests a wave of refinancing is taking place – and not much else.  Pending home sales slipped to 69.  That level is 7.4 points below the lowest level in 2010 – at the height of the 2008-09 credit crisis that collapsed the global Real Estate values.  How big is this new low level in Pending home sales?  It’s HUGE.

It suggests the rate of sales in the US for Real Estate has collapsed beyond levels that were seen at the worst possible time in recent history (July 2010).  In fact, over the past 20 years, there has never been a time when the pending home sales index has collapsed below 74 to 75 – until today.

2008-2011 PENDING HOME SALES DATA

The sudden collapse of Pending Home Sales as a result of the COVID-19 virus event should not have come as any surprise to skilled technical investors.  Don’t misread this data – there are still homes selling in the US market, buyers are just being far more selective and discerning in regards to their purchases and timing.

Anyone who understands Supply and Demand theory knows that when price levels are perceived to be excessive, consumers slow their purchases considerably as the supply is determined to be overvalued in price.  This slowing of purchasing results in a supply glut that will eventually push price levels lower (attempting to attract more buyers).

It is this process of shifting perceptions in the Supply and Demand relationship that is likely taking place right now in the Real Estate market.  Low rates in combination with the COVID-19 virus are not prompting more sales of Real Estate right now.  Consumers simply don’t have the confidence (perception) that future price appreciation in Real Estate will be substantially based on the current market environment.  Thus, the perception of the value of Real Estate changes from optimism to caution.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

2020 PENDING HOME SALES DATA

Source: https://www.investing.com

A large portion of the issue related to Real Estate is consumer confidence in their ability to earn real incomes and the stability of employment and opportunity related to their future.  The COVID-19 virus event has really disrupted a large portion of the US consumer market as well as the future expectations of consumers and spending habits.  This disruption is likely to take at least 12 to 24+ months to settle before any real bottom is likely to take place on a broad scale.

Real consumer spending has collapsed in April and May 2020.  Even though the US government has spent trillions attempting to support the US economy, the continued shutdown of cities and states has cut consumers’ jobs, incomes, and the need to go out and spend like normal.  Even though they may be saving some extra money throughout this time, the destruction to local and state economies/revenues is devastating.

MAY 2020 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING DATA

Source: https://www.investing.com

The one aspect of the low-interest rates that we do expect to peak soon is the refinance market.  Stronger homeowners with solid income opportunities are able to refinance at lower rates now and that activity seems to be spiking.  This is very similar to what happened in 2009-2011 where stronger consumers were able to take advantage of very low-interest rates and were able to shed the 5 to 7%+ mortgages and refinance at much lower levels.  Once these transactions peak, these homeowners will likely be settled in their homes for another 5 to 10+ years with new lower rates (unless something disrupts their financial/income situation).

MAY 2020 MORTGAGE REFINANCE INDEX

Source: https://www.investing.com

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Combining all of this data into a consensus analysis for technical traders, we come to the conclusion that a wave of refinancing has likely peaked and that consumers are now in the early stage of attempting to understand what the recovery will look like going forward over the next 6 to 12+ months.  Add into the mix that we have a US Presidential election taking place in 6 months and the potential policy and tax changes that could take place as a result of this election and we have a real “consumer abyss” setting up over the next 6+ months.

With the Fed doing all they can to support the markets, the COVID-19 virus still causing shutdowns and other issues and the consumer waiting for some clear skies and positive expectations, the US and global economy could be stuck in a mode of greatly decreased consumer activity over the next 6 to 12+ months – which translates into a shift in perspective related to business creation, optimism, income/earnings and much more.  A dramatic shift in consumer expectations over a longer period of time could result in far more damaging longer-term issues for assets, state and local governments, and more.

Once the wave of refinancing is completed, we’ll have to see how the housing market data relates to increased consumer optimism.  At this point, we don’t believe anything is likely to change consumer attitudes until after the November 2020 elections.  Skilled technical traders should prepare for some really big price swings over the next 12+ months. This is the time for technical traders to shine with the setups and data that is being presented right now as well as in the future.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer trading signals for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/tti to learn more about our passive long term investing signals, Also, get our swing trading signals here www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/ttt.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Trader Ltd.

Real Estate Showing Signs Of Collateral Damage – Part IV

This final part of our multi-part Real Estate article should help you understand what will likely transpire over the next 6+ months and how the unknown collateral damage may result in a “Double-Dip” price event taking place before August/September 2020.  In the first three parts of this article, we’ve attempted to highlight how the current COVID-19 virus event is different than any of the previous two crisis events.

We’ve also highlighted how consumer psychology will change over the next 12+ months as this event continues to unfold.  Most importantly, we attempted to highlight how the disruption in income, one of the biggest factors we should consider, for businesses, individuals, states, and governments will likely present a very real contraction event over the next 24+ months.

It is difficult to really explain how so many people fail to see what we are seeing in terms of our research.  Yes, the COVID-19 virus event will end at some point and the economy will begin to engage at growing rates.  Yet, the process of getting to that stage is likely to be full of unknown economic events over the next 24+ months.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

We’ve published articles suggesting our Super-Cycles and generational cycle research suggests we have entered a 10 to 20 year period of “unraveling and crisis processes” before a rebuilding phase can begin to take place.  If our research is correct, this unraveling and crisis phase will end near 2025~26.  This suggests we have another 5+ years of unknown collateral damage and unknown economic events

On February 24, 2020, we published this article which is very important because it warned our followers to prepare for a crisis event and to protect your portfolios with what to expect in the yield curve.

Our suggestion is to plan to set up your portfolio so you have sufficient cash in reserve in the event of an unexpected market decline.  We also suggest proper protection/hedge investments, such as precious metals and metals miner ETFs.

The reality is that mortgage delinquencies have already begun to skyrocket higher.  It is obvious to anyone paying attention that the lack of real income opportunities for individuals and businesses will translate into major economic collateral damage processes (crisis events) playing out over the next 12+ months. Depending on how the COVID-19 virus lingers throughout the world and the extent of the global shutdowns, we could be on the cusp of experiencing one of the biggest “revaluation events” in history.

This Bloomberg article summarizes our research and thinking nicely. Despite government support, we believe a massive revaluation event related to Real Estate and other assets is just starting to unfold.  Skilled technical traders will stay keenly aware of this potential event and position their portfolios to protect assets in the event of a sudden change in trend.

Price trends have just started to move lower based on this data from Realtor.com up to March 2020.  We believe the April and May data will show a substantial collapse in pricing levels – particularly in areas that continue to experience high COVID-19 issues.  This suggests California, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and other areas could experience a sustained price decline lasting more than 12to 24 months.

Florida Real Estate Price Trends

Washington Real Estate Price Trends

Watch as more populated areas (cities and larger regional areas) see a shift in consumer sentiment related to Real Estate price levels over the next 6+ months.  Once the consumers start shifting away from seeing Real Estate as an opportunity at any price and begin to watch the price levels drop, their psychology changes in terms of “when will the bottom happen?”.  Once this happens, the markets change into a Bear market trend for real estate as at-risk homeowners are placed under severe pricing pressure and markets continue to implode.

What this means for skilled technical traders is that opportunities will be endless over the next 12+ months to target real gains through skilled technical trades.  As capital shifts from one sector to another – avoiding risk and attempting to capitalize on the opportunity, skilled technical traders will be able to ride these trends and waves to create substantial gains.

Protect your portfolios now.  Don’t fall for the overly optimistic “follow the NQ higher” trade as risks are still excessive.  Wait for the right setups and determine how much risk you can afford to take on each trade. This is not the time to bet the farm on one big trade – wait for the right setups and wait for the collateral damage to play out.

It doesn’t matter what type of trader or investor you are – the move in Gold and the major global markets over the next 12+ months is going to be incredible.  Gold rallying to $2100, $3000 or higher means the US and global markets will continue to stay under some degree of pricing pressure throughout the next 12 to 24 months.  This means there are inherent risks in the markets that many traders are simply ignoring.

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

If you have been following me for a while, then you know my analysis and trades are the real deal. You also would know that I made over $1.9 million from the financial markets during the 2008 crash and recover into 2010. I have been semi-retired since the age of 27.  I continue to follow, predict, and trade the markets because its the ultimate business and my passion.

A bear market and its recovery can make your rich in a very short period. I believe this is about to happen again, so why not follow my super simple SP500 ETF investing strategy?  Trade with your investment account and become a stock market success with me!

I’m offering my investing signals for the next few years to those who want to know their investment capital is in the asset. Let face it; there is a time to be 100% long stocks, to own an inverse fund, and when to sit in cash. Your financial advisor would NEVER recommend a cash position, why because he is not allowed, he and his firm will not make money. Instead, they will keep you long stocks, with some bonds, and you will have to ride out the bear market rollercoaster again.

During the March Market crash, the BEST position was cash for short term trades. EVERY asset fell in value (stocks, bonds, gold, commodities) two months ago. Only one asset rallied, guess what it was? The USD dollar (CASH), moving to USD cash, gained a whopping 11% while most indexes and sectors fell 35-80+%. all you had to do was close all positions in your portfolio, and you would have looked like a hero, and that’s what I did with my account and members of my swing trading newsletter.

Follow me to success. Trade my most simple single ETF investing strategy and know when to own stocks, when to own an inverse ETF, or be in cash. For only $149 you can have the keys to the kingdom during a time when we are going to experience more historical price swings. This is as good as it gets, in my opinion.

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As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Signs Of Long Term Devaluation Real Estate

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
before leaving this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

2008-09 REAL ESTATE PRICE COLLAPSE CHART

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

MULTI-SECTOR PRICE TREND CHART (DAILY)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch.com article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels:

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold Stock About To Rally While Oil Becomes Less Than Worthless, What?

Another great morning talking with the team at TraderTV.live

These guys are nothing short of incredible traders, educators, and entertainers. If you want a morning trading show that timely, gives out trade ideas, and will make you laugh, this is it, guys!

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. Yesterday we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and our account is at another all-time high value. Exciting times for us technical traders!

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Real Estate Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop

The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event.  We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event.  We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”.  Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…

Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:

Real Estate Crash Predicted Part I – Click Here
Real Estate Crash Predicted Part II – Click Here

The COVID-19 virus event is a global crisis event that is currently in the very early stages of consumer psychological processing.  All types of crisis events prompt some forms of typical human reaction.  We believe the Real Estate market may be the next big asset revaluation event as consumers continue to process the COVID-19 virus crisis and the consequences of this event.

REAL ESTATE CYCLES

Real Estate cycles typically transition through the following phases as supply and demand functions work through the markets.  Pay attention to the middle of this cycle chart.  In the Expansion and HyperSupply stages, once supply peaks and prices somewhat peak/stabilize, a transition takes place in the market where buyers chase premium properties and push price levels moderately higher.  The Recession Cycle is typically a disruptive cycle that is the result of an economic/income disruption.  When people can’t earn enough to satisfy their debt obligations and or provide for their families, then the Real Estate cycle begins to contract.

(Source: www.carealtytraining.com)

An event like this, the COVID-19 virus event, would typically start out as a regional/local event.  This did happen as it roiled certain areas of China in late 2019.  Watching how China attempted to manage and hide the extent of the virus explosion within their country was painful to watch.

The Chinese state media was pushing out information and numbers which didn’t match anything seen on the streets and being reported by others within China/Hong Kong.  This “disconnect” and the misinformation presented within this early virus pandemic event is critical to understanding how the world will now deal with this mess.  So, keep in mind, everything was somewhat “clicking right along” in late 2019 and early 2020 as China was fooling the world.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

AS IT UNFOLDED…

The Chinese New Year celebration fell on January 25, 2020 (Year of the Rat).  Near this time in China, hundreds of millions of people travel “back home” to celebrate the New Year with their families and friends.  As this travel starts typically 4 to 5 weeks ahead of the date of the New Year, China allowed potentially infected people to travel throughout the world before shutting down travel within China on January 23, 2020.  This locked infected and uninfected people into areas within China while the Chinese government began extended efforts to control the virus outbreak.

By early February 2020, the virus had been confirmed in India, Philippines, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Singapore, the US, the UAE, and Vietnam.  In essence, the Chinese lock-down presented a very real opportunity for those that had visited China and left to be “locked into location” outside the quarantined areas within China.  If they were infected or asymptomatic carriers, these people now became source-spreaders.  On February 3, 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping indicated the Chinese government knew about the virus well before the public alarm was raised – as reported by the Chinese state media.

By Mid February 2020, China had over 40,000 infections and over 900 confirmed deaths related to the COVID-19 virus.  Nearly a week later, near February 19, China reported more than 74,000 total cases and 2,100+ deaths.  By this time, general global panic had already been set up and this is the point of this article – how consumers respond to a crisis event like a virus pandemic. (Sources: www.aljazeera.com, www.businessinsider.com)

The reason we went through all of this detail is to illustrate how the virus event started as a localized event in China, near the end of 2019.  Yet, by early February 2020, less than 35 days later, the virus event suddenly became a global event – panicking the world.  The COVID-19 virus event has now turned into a global economic disruption event that has dramatically reduced most people’s ability to earn an income.  Businesses and individuals will feel the consequences of this event and we believe the economic contraction is just starting. How do consumers respond to an event like this?

In PART II of this series, we’ll continue to delve into the reasoning behind our research and why we believe the Real Estate market will become very risky for investors over the next 24+ months.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Fed Induced Twilight-Zone

The past three weeks have been filled with intense drama, incredible highs and lows, political battles that continue to this day, and millions of questions from people throughout the world.  Throughout this COVID-19 virus event and the collapse of the US and global markets, one continued belief has prevailed – the US Fed will attempt to rescue the global markets (again).

Late last week, President Trump announced a task force to evaluate how and when to reopen the US economy and more than US nine states have already committed to a staged reopening process.  COVID-19 virus being what it is, the US is going to attempt to lead the way forward.  This means every resource and every effort will be taken to engage in a proper process to protect our future while battling this virus outbreak.

This was also a pivotal week for the US Stock market. With the US Fed in buying mode attempting to counter the recent weakness in the markets, literally trillions of dollars have poured into the US stock market over the past 5+ days.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 532 points (+2.2%).  The NASDAQ rallied 581.50 points (+7.06%). The S&P 500 rallied 89.25 (+3.2%).  Obviously, capital is pouring into the NASDAQ faster than the other major indexes and this suggests investors believe in the earnings and future capabilities of technology companies over more traditional market segments.

Continued global economic weakness and shuttered US states will have a chilling result on Q2 outcomes and revenue growth.  We continue to believe Q2 and Q3 of 2020 will be much weaker than investors are expecting and we believe the US Fed has lulled many investors into believing a “deep V bottom” is the most likely outcome.  Over time, we believe the loss of 20+ million working Americans and the destruction of the shuttered global economy will translate into much weaker global market price levels.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

NASDAQ (NQ) WEEKLY CHART

This NQ weekly chart highlights the real potential for downside risks.  The appreciation in price from the 2016 levels are a direct result of investor anticipation of growth after the 2016 election.  What’s changed is that a major risk to the markets has unraveled more than all the growth we’ve accumulated over the past 2+ years.  Investors should stop to consider the real economic outcome over the next 2+ years before jumping into the Fed-backed Twilight Zone.

As the total scope of the global economic environment continues to shift, it does make sense that certain technology companies may benefit from any type of extended virus event.  Gaming companies, technology suppliers and resellers, certain software companies and a host of streaming and content firms may gain users and incomes over the next 12+ months.  Yet, we continue to believe the COVID-19 virus event may continue to present risks in the markets going forward.

The NY Federal Reserve issues a GDP Nowcast which attempts to translate forward economic GDP outcomes in near-real-time.  The current level for Q1 2020 GDP is -0.4% and -7.9% for Q2 2020.  This suggests the second, and possibly third, quarters could be substantially weaker overall than what we’ve just experienced over the past 50+ days.    Even though the stock markets began to collapse on February 25, 2020 – we really didn’t begin to understand the total scope of the economic contraction until nearly the middle of March (very late in Q1).  Q2 may reflect the complete global economic burden of this virus event and we believe investors are failing to comprehend the total scope of this risk at the moment and how it relates to future earning capabilities.

Weakness in Q2 and possibly Q3 earnings for 2020 could have a shock-wave across many sectors of the US and global markets which we are somewhat blindly ignoring.  Asset values, belief in a “V” type bottom setup, lack of disruption for state and local governments and others seem to continue to be the prevailing attitude.  With the US Fed to the rescue, somehow investors seem to believe the recovery process will only take a few weeks or a few months.

We found this information very interesting in terms of how local governments generate revenues and how the virus event may present a very real 20 to 40% revenue contraction for state and local governments over the next 24+ months.  Based on this data, nearly 40 to 50% of annual revenue to state and local governments may be at risk.  When we consider the 20+ million people in the US that have recently filed for unemployment (nearly 6% of the total US population and 8% of the total working population), we can’t expect a stellar economic output.

S&P 500 (ES) MONTHLY CHART

This ES Monthly chart highlights our expectation that the US Stock market will attempt to establish a deeper bottom in price that may take the form of a FLAG formation setup.  We don’t believe the continued disruption to the global markets will do anything to support the past 3+ week recovery in the US markets.  Global investors will likely end up backing the US as the leader in this recovery, yet we believe the actual bottom in the markets will take place over the next 12+ months and likely complete just before the November 2020 elections.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our proprietary modeling systems have reflected the recent strength in the US stock market adequately – yet they have failed to result in any changes regarding allocation into the markets.  For right now, everything stays the same as it was.  We do believe the Fed’s buying will potentially prompt a “false trigger” if the rally continues.  We will assess the trigger when and if it happens in the near future.

Until we get a more accurate understanding of the risks, we feel it is much safer to assume the worst-case scenario going forward.  There is simply no way to paint a positive picture when people throughout the globe are losing their jobs, incomes, and all sense of normalcy.  The reality is that this disruption in the global banking and financial sector is certainly a big one that could last well into summer. If you read this article or watch the video you will understand the magnitude of this market top that looks to be forming.

As of right now, skilled investors are preparing for a potentially deeper price bottom and watching what is happening in the markets with interest – waiting for the right trigger to jump on the next big trend.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Banking & Finance Expected To Get Crushed

Big news out today on CNBC about Gilead drug cured all 125 people from serious COVID-19 conditions within 5 days, This is amazing to hear, stocks are popping today up 3-5% which is to be expected for this type of news but the damage to the financial markets has already been done.

But early data recently published suggests the Banking and Finance sector may continue to get crushed under a massive weight of real losses and exposure to risk in the Derivatives Markets.  As with the 2008-09 Credit Crisis, Derivatives losses extended compound risk factors by 10x to 20x or more for in some instances.  We believe the banking and finance sector may be setting up for a massive implosion if global derivatives implode as leveraged accounts collapse.

Two very interesting news articles that may assist readers in understanding the current Financial market contagion event are:

Bank Earnings Armageddon by TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst.com

Xi fears Japan-led manufacturing exodus from China by Asia.Nikkei.com

The Chinese/Asian economy is built upon the premise that global demand will continue without interruption over the next many decades.  Additionally, China and Asia have leveraged capital systems and financial functions by deploying a very shadowy measure of lending and banking functions.  We’ve all heard the stories of how collateral-based loans were offered many times over as stock in Copper or other raw materials were simply moved from one location to another to secure loans on the same material.

As with any great Ponzi scheme – it all starts to collapse when investors decide they don’t want to play games any longer.

FEDERAL RESERVE – RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES SALES

These recent St. Louis Federal Reserve charts paint a fairly clear picture that retail and food services sales have collapsed to below levels of 4+ years ago – and this is just getting started.

FEDERAL RESERVE – BORROWER DELINQUENCY RATE

This next chart shows that sub-prime borrower delinquency rates have already peaked above both the 2000 and 2008-09 peak levels.  The current virus event collapse is a completely different beast of destruction than what we’ve experienced before.

This is why we believe the Banking and Financial sectors are about to get hammered over the next 6+ months as a massive credit and debt deleveraging process continues to take place.  Consumers recently displaced from the workforce will suddenly find themselves without the ability to pay their bills and credit card balances.  This is not just happening in the US or select areas – this is happening throughout the world right now.  Banking and Finance are staring into a black hole in terms of just how big and destructive the displacement of consumer jobs/earnings capacity really is.

We believe the recent recovery in the US stock market was a reactionary event prompted by the US Fed stepping in to “stick their finger in the dike” as an effort to thwart the downside price collapse.  When the reality of the situation really begins to settle in about 60 days, banks and other financial institutions are going to have a difficult time explaining losses and exposure to derivatives risks that were clearly evident in March and April 2020.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY CHART – NASDAQ REGIONAL BANKING INDEX

This first Weekly chart of the NASDAQ Regional Banking Index shows just how destructive the initial downside price move has been.  Even though the US Fed stepped in with a massive $5+ trillion rescue plan, the recovery in this sector has been minor.  We believe that is because most investors understand the true risks in this sector are likely in the hundreds of trillions range with derivatives and leveraged positions.

UCC WEEKLY CHART – CONSUMER SERVICES SECTOR

This UCC Weekly chart shows a bit more of a recovery after the US Fed stepped in to save the day.  Yet, we fully believe a deeper price low is likely to set up as the full extent of total newly unemployed put additional strains on expectations.  Consumers without income can suddenly collapse multiple trillions in credit/debt over a very short period of time.

XLF FINANCIAL SECTOR WEEKLY CHART

The XLF Financial Sector Weekly chart paints a very clear picture of the downside risks current in play.  After a massive initial collapse, a brief sideways recovery has taken place.  Yet the true risk for this sector takes place over the next 24+ months as these newly displaced workers attempt to manage with little or no income and attempt to satisfy debt levels that were acquired expecting pre-2020 income expectations.  New cars, new homes, new credit card debt, new everything purchased on credit has suddenly become the beast that destroys the financial/banking sector.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our researchers believe the true scope of this crisis won’t be known for at least another 30 to 60+ days.  The closer we get to the end of Q2, the more likely we are to see real data reflecting real risks in the Banking and Financial sectors.

Until we get a more accurate understanding of the risks, we feel it is much safer to assume the worst-case scenario going forward.  There is simply no way to paint a positive picture when people throughout the globe are losing their jobs, incomes, and all sense of normalcy.  The reality is that this disruption in the global banking and financial sector is certainly going to be a big one that could last many months or years and if you read this article or watch the video you will understand the magnitude of this market top that looks to be forming.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.