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Revisiting Our ADL Predictions for S&P 500

Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020.  This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction.  From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction.  This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.

Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/

In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels.  The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event.  It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

ORIGINAL ES ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL WEEKLY

This is the ES chart showing our ADL predictive modeling system results from the May 23, 2020 date.  You can see the ADL predicted price levels near 2520 on this chart and the fact that the markets rallied away from these levels in late May created what we call a “price anomaly”.  This is when price moves away from the ADL levels in a manner that is somewhat unreasonable.  The same thing happened during the peak price level in early February 2018 and the October peak in 2018.

SPY ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL DAILY

Based on our ADL predictive modeling system and the targeted price levels, we believe the SPY will fall to levels close to or below $260 over the next 10 to 15+ days.  It makes perfect sense that the markets over-extended a speculative price rally based on the context that the US economy would rebound from the COVID-19 shutdown.

Now that the US Fed has deflated that expectation and the riots and other issues related to social and political events are pending, we believe a “sudden realization” within the markets could send the US stock market price levels much lower over the next 2+ weeks – eventually attempting to find support near recent lows.

We actually posted our technical forecast for the market crash, the 30% rally, and called this blow-off top and reversal 4 days before it happened in this video a while back.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Remember, developing a winning strategy is not about trading every trend and day-trading every move, it is about timing your trades and strategically positioning your portfolio to take advantage of the “best asset now”.  We’ve developed proprietary technology that assists us in determining the best assets to be invested in and our predictive modeling and other proprietary tools assist us in identifying confirmed trade triggers.  Our objective is to assist our clients in generating consistent profits – not hundreds of trades.

If you were caught on the wrong side of this move recently, please remember that we tried to warn you of our multiple research articles and clear content.  We’ve been warning that this upside rally was a speculative price move driven by foreign and US investors believing the V-shaped recovery was real.  The reality of the situation is that this recovery is going to be much more volatile than many people believe.  This is a global economic event – not just a Fed Blip or some other isolated panic volatility.

You better stay on top of these trends and risks in the markets to stay ahead of these bigger moves.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Chuck Jaffe Talks Technical Analysis on Money Life – Indexes & Metals

Chuck Jaffe, the host of Money Life, is a veteran financial journalist and nationally syndicated financial columnist whose work appears in newspapers from coast to coast. Today he talks with Chris Vermeulen.

Chuck has been named to MutualFundWire’s list of the 40 Most Influential People in Fund Distribution and was the first journalist to make the list. Over the course of his career, he has won numerous awards for business and personal finance journalism.

Chris Vermeulen has been a technical analyst and trader since 1997, he has been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. He has the pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Chris states “2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.”

If you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride Chris’ coattails as he navigates these financial markets and builds wealth while others struggle during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Market Wrap Technical Take with Moe & Chris – Audio


Yesterday I had a great call with Moe Ansari, who has over 40 years of experience trading and investing. We talked about the market and some technical analysis as to what we think about everything happening right now.

Moe and I share a comment thought which is:

IT IS NOT WHAT YOU MAKE, IT IS
WHAT YOU KEEP THAT COUNTS.

I have been pounding on the table for weeks since we closed out last trade in TLT for 20.07% profit on Feb 23rd, that cash is king, and it is more important to avoid uncertainty than it is to try and trade the random and volatile price action.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter love the fact that our trading portfolio is at a NEW HIGH WATERMARK, and we completely sidestepped this market correction, which turned into a full out market crash.

I won’t lie. I knew a market correction was starting, which is why I adjusted our trailing stops to protect us if things began to turn south. But I did not expect a market collapse that would start a new bear market.

The good news is that because I strictly use technical analysis, position-sizing, and management of positions for profit-taking and trailing stops. We will never be caught on the wrong side of the market for more than a few days. So when a market collapse happens like what we are experiencing now, it does not affect our financial outlook.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Lots of Upside Ahead for the Metals and Miners

Palisade Radio talks with Chris as he discusses his approach to trading and why technical analysis works for him. He focuses on the chart and price action and explains why investors need to follow a trading strategy that suits their personality.

He cautions that a broad sell-off is likely when stocks move into the next bear market. This liquidation will pull everything down, including gold, for a time. Afterward, he anticipates a massive rally in the juniors.

Time Stamp References:

0:40 – Chris’s early career.

3:25 – What led him to technical analysis.

5:30 – Stage Analysis and market trends.

8:15 – Why investors need a strategy.

13:40 – Indicators for market timing.

17:20 – Avoid too much information.


As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Stock Market Reaches Pivot Point With Trader

Many online brokers are cutting their trading commissions to zero. There are ways to benefit from this beyond just zero commissions. It is now better than ever to buy individual stocks as opposed to ETF’s when investing in a sector. I talk about this topic and then interview Chris Vermeulen who runs thetechnicaltraders.com to get his take on the current trends of the markets.


GET CHRIS’ ETF TRADE SIGNALS – CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen on Gold, Silver, Miners, Crude Oil, Bonds, and Bitcoin.


As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members and most importantly we did this with very little portfolio risk. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION – OFFER ENDS SOON!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

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Chris Vermeulen Tells You How To Become a Full Time Trader – Interview by: FuturesPortal.com

By Futures Portal

Chris Vermeulen www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com a full time trader shares
his experience of trading futures and ETFs.
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You call yourself the “Gold and Oil Guy”, are the gold and oil sectors are your specialties?

I follow gold and oil closely and give my analysis, thoughts and trades ideas to my followers each morning before the market opens. While I follow them closely the SP500 is my baby and what I prefer to trade. I found that emotions run wild in the stock market and once you understand what state of mind the majority of traders are in, then you are able to accurately track and forecast future moves 1-3 days in advance.

How did you get started trading?

I started years ago in college trading from my laptop. It didn’t take long before I decided this was what I was meant to do for a living. I have never stopped since. I work with several financial websites and professional traders each week and trade each day either managing swing trades or taking a day trades.

What instruments do you trade the most?

Depending on the risk and type of trade (swing, momentum or day trade) I jump between trading ES Mini Futures, 1x ETFs, 2x ETFs and 3X ETFs. I prefer index trading specifically the SP500 as that has been my main focus for day one. It’s better to be really GOOD AT ONE THING than average at a bunch of things. This strategy has many benefits to it including less time searching for trade setups, less stress, lower risk levels etc…

How did you choose the time frames you trade on?

Choosing the time frames to trade took many years of trial and error. But I did eventually find a couple time frames which have proved to be VERY accurate when trading the SP500 specifically. Money flows in and out of the market in waves (cycles) and once I realized these cycles and could identify fear and greed in the market place finding and timing trades was the difference between night and day.
The really exciting thing about the SP500 and its cycles/timeframes is that I can trade full time and have trades almost every other day or site back and wait for the longer term swing trades and enjoy time with my family, friends and exercise. I have built a trading system that automatically breaths with the market using current volatility levels, various cycles, buy/sell volume levels and momentum and it alerts me in pre-market trading each day if I a buy, sell or position adjustment is to be made. The time frames I focus on are the daily, 30 minute, 10 minute and 3 minute.

Do you trade leveraged instruments? Do you trade them differently from non-leveraged investments?

I trade all types of instruments based around the SP500. In short, the more leverage I use the smaller the position I take and the shorter term the trade is.

For example I will trade the ES mini futures for day trades which are always closed out at the end of the day.

Momentum trades which last 1-3 days I will use a 2x or 3x ETF like SSO or SPXU to get more juice from a play but maintain a healthy risk level as overnight trading and price gaps cut both ways.

Swing Trades I take the largest positions in up to 50% of my trading account in a single position using a 1x ETF like the SPY. These trades can last up to 4 months at times.

I do at times make things a little more complicated when trading with a strong trend. Sometimes when I get a swing trade buy signal I will buy a position using the 1x ETF. If in the next 3 days I get lower prices of more than 1% against me while the uptrend remains alive I will add more of a position using a 2x and 3x ETF also. Once the market bounces back a little I close out the leveraged positions to a quick gain and continue to ride the swing trade. I do this same thing in down trends when I am on a hot streak and in the zone with the SP500.

What has been your biggest hurdle becoming a full time trader?

The toughest part of trading for me is keeping laser-beam focus on my strategy as it is mandatory for success. I work with, talk to and read a lot of market opinions of other traders each day and it can cloud my judgment causing me to break my own rules.

In your opinion, what do most traders don’t realize about the “game” of trading?

Most traders/investors do not understand risk/reward for positions. I would say 90% of people I talk with take much too large of positions in investments which carry very high risk. Also they do not use protective stops based of technical analysis/risk tolerances. Those are the two main things, but this list could go on and on… There are a lot of moving parts in the market and each must be closely monitored, managed and understood clearly.

Again, It’s better to be really GOOD AT ONE THING than average at a bunch of things meaning you should be jumping around trading random stocks, sectors, commodities and investment types like options, equities, forex etc… Just learn one, master it and then expand.

Without revealing your proprietary method, could you please tell us what tools you use for trading? Any specific indicators?

I am a technical trader so I focus 100% on Price, Volume and Momentum. News, economic data and rumors mean absolutely nothing to me. The only thing that pays traders is price action so that is what I follow. It’s simple supply and demand. High volume means there is power behind a move and momentum is how fast the price is moving on various time frames.

As long as you trade with the daily trend direction forget about picking market tops or bottoms you instantly have the odds in your favor. Problem is people always want to try and outsmart the market by going against the trend and trying to pick these tops and bottoms.
As for the indicators I use. Again they are simple and based off price, volume and momentum. Each of my indicators has been customized for the SP500 and is unique. I do like stochastics and bollingerbands but they each need to be tuned for the underlying investment to provide a trading edge.

What advice would you give new traders to start on the right foot?

I would tell a new trader to spend a lot of time thinking about what their ideal/dream lifestyle would be like if they could choose. Do you want to be looking at the computer and trading every day? Or do you want to always be in positions and actively managing them on a weekly basis so you can enjoy life little more? Or A mix of both?

Then you need to figure out what you would like to trade. Stocks, Options, ETFs, Futures, or currencies?
Once you know these things then you should spend a lot of time looking for a successful trading doing EXACTLY what you want and do everything in your power and never give up to learn, master and live that lifestyle. Learning to trade is not cheap. You either lose a lot of money or spend a lot of money to fast track things… either way it’s going to cost you thousands of dollars.

Personally I do a hybrid with laser-beam focus. I focus on only one investment (SP500). And I have learned and created my own trading system so I can day trade, momentum trade and swing it. This give me total freedom as I can spend 20 minutes a day looking at the market to manage my swing trade if needed and then walk away. Or can be replying to emails and see a setup unfolding on the intraday chart and take a quick trade and pocket a few hundred bucks on a day trade.

Final question is about drawdowns. How do you handle them in your trading?

Drawdowns are simple really… Depending on the type of investment you are trading the percentage amount will vary. But the same rule should apply. You should have a maximum loss per trade set so that you never blow your account up. Hopefully your protective stop is set way before that level is ever reached but sometimes price moves beyond normal volatility levels.

My general rule is to never lose more than 1% of my account in a trade. So once I spot a setup and then calculate where my stop should be and figure out how much capital to put to work so that if my stop is hit I do not lose more than 1% of my trading account. Because I focus on the SP500 the volatility is low compared to trading individual stocks so moves in price as easy to digest and reduces fear/stress when in a position.

Chris, thank you very much for sharing your experience with us and our readers.
Best of luck on everything.

FuturesPortal.com Editorial

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Technical View of What’s Next for Precious Metals, Stocks & the Dollar

March 14, 2010
Last weeks price action unfolded just as we expected. Money poured into stocks with the focus being on small cap, banks and technology stocks. The fact that these sectors are showing strength while utilities, health care and consumer staples lag is a good sign that investors are once again taking risks in the market.

Because investors and traders are bullish on the stock market again the money flow into the safe havens like Gold and Silver decrease. I believe this is the reason stocks moved up last week while precious metals drifted lower.

Below are three charts (Dollar, Gold and Silver) showing what I think is most likely to happen in the coming week or two.

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US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

The US Dollar has put in a very nice bounce/rally since the low in November 2009. Last month the dollar finally reached a key resistance level of 81. I have been talking about this major resistance level since January as the Dollar would find it difficult to break above this level.

Take a look at the daily chart below. You can see a head & shoulders pattern and a neckline which appears to have broken late Friday afternoon. There is a strong chance we could see 78 reached which is the measured move down. If we get follow through selling this week then I would expect 78 to be touched within 5-10 days.

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GLD & SLV ETF Trading Charts

Precious metals have been moving very well for us recently. From looking at the charts using technical analysis we were able to catch the Feb. 5th low and also the Feb. 25th low on a several ETF’s.

As you can see from the GLD and SLV charts, both metals are now in an uptrend showing bullish chart patterns and trading at support. If we see the US Dollar break down next week then be ready to go long gold, silver and stocks.

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Precious Metals, Stocks and the Dollar Trading Conclusion:

As a technical analyst the above charts are pointing to higher prices in the coming day’s which is exciting for us all. BUT when things are this perfect looking we must be very cautious as the market has way to suck people into setups like this and spit them out a couple days later for a nasty loss.

Understanding how the market moves is crucial for avoiding and/or minimizing losses when trades go against us. That is why I continue to wait for my signature low risk setup before putting any money to work.

My focus is to take the least amount of trades possible each year, only focusing on the best of the best setups. My low risk setups require downside risk to be under 3% for the investment of choice when the broad market shows signs of strength, as well. I use several different types of analysis to confirm if a setup has a high probability of winning and those which do are the trades I take along with my subscribers.

It is very important to wait for the market to confirm a move higher before taking a position with this type of setup. The market could go either way quickly and jumping the gun is not a safe bet.

Get My Precious Metals and Index ETF Trading Alerts: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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How Much Higher for the Indices, Gold and the Dollar?

Last week was exciting as we saw stocks and gold close above the February highs which confirms we are in a new up trend. The question everyone is wondering is:
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How far will this market go before rolling over?

This is a tough question but we can get a good feeling about the risk and if it’s worth putting money to work or not at this point. Here are my quick points and thoughts about the stocks indexes at the current price (March 5th closing price).
• The market is extremely overbought on the hourly and daily charts. Buying here is just chasing prices around, and that is a net losing game.
• Small Cap stocks have been on fire making a new higher for the year. This is very bullish but again buying here carries too much risk because after such a sharp price appreciation, we can see it all be given back just as quick.
• Volume over the past three weeks has been below average and when I see higher prices on declining volume I expect prices to drop very quickly once the thrust upwards ends.
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Stock Market Indexes – 21 Trading Days
Here is a simple chart showing the past 21 trading sessions. It compares the Nasdaq, NYSE, Russell 2000, Dow Jones, SP500, and Amex indexes.

As you can see the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) and Nasdaq (tech stocks) have been on fire the past couple weeks while the solid large cap stocks lag.

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Are The Small Caps Stocks Telling Us Something?
Its means investors and traders are confident enough to buy higher risk companies. This is good for the overall market because small cap stocks tend to lead the market in both up and down trends. What has me concerned is the low volume rally, which I don’t like.

One thing to note is that small cap stocks tend to do well during times when the US Dollar is rising. This is because they are not multinational dealing with currency exchange. So this small cap stock rally has me wondering if the US Dollar is about to continue its up trend or if investors really are comfortable with buying riskier stocks?

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GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
Gold gained some ground last week but the majority of the money seemed to flow into small cap stocks. But take a look at this bullish chart.

This is a text book bull flag pattern complete with and ABC retrace, trend line break, and reversal candle off of a support zone. I am bullish on gold long term but think we could see prices rise a couple percent from here but will trend sideways/down for the next 2-3 weeks to digest the recent move up.

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US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
I have posted this chart several times in the past few months with 83 being a key resistance level. The dollar’s recent price action is very bullish and it is flagging just under this key resistance level. I feel the price is heading lower from here but only time will tell. A breakout to the upside will put a lot of pressure stocks and precious metals.

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Weekend Trading Conclusion:
Last weeks strong rally into the close will most likely carry over into Monday and possibly Tuesday. The reason being is simply because retail traders and investors (John Doe’s) get excited when they see higher prices, thus it attracts more money into the market.

In short, I feel the market is overbought. All indexes are trading at resistance other than the Russell 2K index, and volume is below average. I am going to wait and see how things unfold this week before thinking about getting committed to any more long positions. If anything I will be looking to short the market using the intraday charts for a quick trade. Again low volume rallies that are overbought tend to snap back very quick on an intraday time frame providing a 1-4 hour trade.

Get My Free Weekly Trading Reports:

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com