Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down. China has vowed to retaliate for the move. The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown. The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market. What next?
Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about. Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.
Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows. Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move. We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next. The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.
Gold is showing signs of a potential upside price leg in the early stages, just as we had been suggesting. Our April 21~24 momentum base call from months ago appears to be incredibly accurate. At this point, we are just waiting for the upside price swing to begin. When it starts, the momentum behind this upside move will increase as it will catch the attention of many gold traders and solidify the “fear” aspect of this move.
Silver is still lagging behind Gold – as usual. We continue to believe the real opportunity for a great trade lies in Silver. The potential for a $22 o ~$28 upside price swing on a market breakdown or fear play is still very solid. Headed into the 2020 US election cycle and with all the uncertainty in the global markets, we believe this is the “sleeper trade” of the next 16+ months. When Gold begins to breakout to the upside, Silver should follow about 20 days later.
These new US trade tariffs puts pressure on China to come to the table and develop and honest deal. This is not the old way of slow negotiations with no real consequences. For China, the lack of access to the US market could be devastating in both the short and long run. Skilled traders should not be overly optimistic throughout this weekend. Protect your longs and prepare for more news over the next few weeks. This is the type of market that will make or break many traders.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY
On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.
Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 11 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart7.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-13 10:09:532019-05-13 10:09:53US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Markets, Gold, and Silver
Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”. They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future. The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.
So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable. We’re here to help.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move. The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research. The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.
Let’s start with the Weekly YM chart. The GREEN highlighted box on this chart shows where the past two Bullish Fibonacci price trigger levels were generated. These, obviously, become key support levels going forward. The narrow ORANGE box near the current peak is the resistance channel we highlighted many weeks ago that suggested a volatility rotation peak may be setting up. We have also drawn an oblique/circle on the chart in BLUE that highlights upside Fibonacci target price levels.
It is our opinion that a further downside leg, possibly to levels below $25,000, are possible as this Shake-Out continues and as the global markets continue to revalue expectations. We are watching the currencies very closely as the Chinese Yuan has devalued extensively over the past few days. This US Dollar strength will keep metals fairly flat while prompting some extra stability in the US stock market over time.
This next chart, the NQ Weekly, shows a similar chart format to that of the YM. Clear resistance can be seen near the recent highs and support is found near the $6600 level from previous Fibonacci Bullish Price Trigger Levels. The NQ, being very heavily weighted in Technology and Internet stocks, may have the ability to fall the furthest within this price rotation – possibly as much as -700 to -800 pts before finding support. Currently, a support level near $7400 is the first level we are watching. If the NQ breaks below this level, then we could see a much bigger move to the downside unfold fairly quickly.
Lastly, the Transportation Index (TRAN) is showing us that the downside price move may have already reached a level that may prompt intermediate price support – or a potential base formation. The $10,400 to $10,500 level, which was already reached, appears to be the initial support level for the TRAN. It would make sense that the TRAN may begin to base near this level over the next few days/weeks while the US stock market attempts to hammer out a bottom.
Ultimately, the $10,000 level has proven to be very strong historical support for the TRAN. So any breakdown in this index would immediately prompt a target level of $10,000 for the next support level. Again, pay attention to the US Dollar and Gold as this movement continues. Any real fear will translate into a weaker US Dollar and increasing prices in precious metals.
In closing, we believe the early signs of a potential price bottom are setting up right now. This may not be the ultimate bottom, but the clear support level in the TRAN is a very good sign that the markets are setting up a support base that may prompt some sideways trading over the next few weeks as the market continues to digest all this global trade news. A deeper “washout-low” price formation may set up in the INDU or the NQ over the next few days which means we may see a deeper price rotation before the downtrend actually ends.
Right now, pay attention to our continued research and we’ll help you find the bottom when it forms. Our current expectations are for a continued downside price move that will establish a washout-low formation over the next 3 to 10 trading days. We’re not out of the woods yet, but we are starting to see the early signs of price support – which means a bottom may not be too far off.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY
On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position today for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started today is up already 10%.
Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 13 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart5.jpg14602053adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-10 11:02:112019-05-10 11:02:11The Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom?
Unless you were following our research, see below, and were already aware of the many warning signs we’ve been posting in our continued efforts to help traders and to help educate skilled investors, you were probably caught completely off guard by the news of near trade tariffs last Sunday, May 5th. Let’s face it, the short position in the VIX was an indication that institutional and retail investors had gone “all in” on this rally and had failed to even consider anything disrupting the narrow range price rally that had been in place over the past 45+ days. Well, all of that changed on Sunday night and many traders woke up Monday morning to the INDU down nearly -500 points.
The most incredible facet of this rotation was that the markets had already discounted the trade tariff news and began to rally almost immediately after the opening bell on Monday. Sure, we are not out of the woods at this time with the potential for continued price volatility and price rotation, but the fact that the US stock market was capable of rallying back from a very deep opening price shows just how resilient the US stock market and the economy really are. The issue this time, we feel, will be felt in the global market and in foreign currency rates. We’ll get into that more as we continue.
In case you missed our most recent research posts, we suggest you take a few minutes to review the following posts to bring you up to speed with our analysis/research. Reviewing these posts may help you to better understand the rest of this article and our expectations for the next 60 to 90 days.
Now that we’ve covered a bit of our past research, allow me to attempt to summarize things a bit.
_ First, we continue to expect new high prices to be established over the next 30+ days. Yes, volatility will be larger than it was 30 days ago, but we believe the “Shake-out” is just starting and we believe the US stock market will continue to push higher – at least for the next 3+ weeks.
_ Second, we are very cautious of the July/August 2019 Cycle Predictions, see above. We believe these cycles could be a warning of a major price trend change that prompts some type of “dynamic shift” in the global markets. Right now, it appears a “Shake-out” in China/Asia may be in play. But we believe a bigger “Shake-out” may be brewing somewhere else in the world.
_ Lastly, we believe any top formation in the US Stock market will result in a Pennant/Flag formation, rotational top formation, that will give traders ample time to reposition their trades and reduce risks.
Just a few days ago, we posted this research to help traders understand just how close the markets are to topping and what to expect – see below. We continue to believe this “Shake-out” is more about disrupting low volatility expectations and less about a major market top in the US stock market
The Chinese stock markets will likely continue to drop as new expectations are suddenly realized and trade issues, especially IP and future IP partnerships, become a major contention moving forward. Every step China takes, right now, is very fragile in terms of US expectations and the ability to show the world China is willing to become a responsible player in the technology field. If China fails to realize this, the world will clearly see that China’s intention is to take as much as they can from global technology leaders while stuffing their pockets full of foreign cash – it will not end well.
The Shockwave that has just started to unfold across the global stock market/financial world is that trade, economic expectations, and currency valuations will continue to “revalue” to address these ongoing concerns until some formal resolution works itself into place. In the meantime, any new issues that become present could further complicate these “revaluation” efforts. The concert just started, folks. We have a long way to go before this is all over with.
This Weekly YM chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting we have a “long way to go” before we could consider any downside price rotation a major risk. The recent price highs in this YM chart have prompted a Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Price near the December 2018 lows (see the RED line near the $21,450 level). You might be asking, “why so low?”. This “learning modeling system” attempts to learn from price and attempts to identify where key price levels are that MUST be reached for a confirmed trend change. As price has continued to rotate within a very wide range over the past 7+ months, the Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting that price could fall all the way back to near the December lows WITHOUT triggering a new “long term” bearish price trend.
In other words, the current price range that would constitute “normal price volatility” is anywhere between $21,450 and $26,950. When we said to expect increased volatility, we really meant it. This is a $5,500 range in the YM that could become a “normal volatility zone”.
The NQ Weekly chart, on the other hand, is providing us a much clearer Bearish Fibonacci Trigger level, near $7,393. Once the price is able to close below this level, then we would consider the NQ entering a new Bearish trend as long as price stays below the $7,393 level. If it was to rally back above this level, then the trigger is negated as long as it stays above the trigger level.
Pay very close attention to the YELLOW price channels that originate back in early 2018. Those levels are likely to play a very important role in going forward as price attempts to establish new price ranges/channels throughout this expected price rotation and volatility.
Lastly, we’ve been warning that the Financial Sector could come under some intense pressures over the next 5 to 16+ months as all of this “Shockwave” plays out. The reason we believe the Financial sector is vulnerable to this crazy volatility is that the exposure to multiple levels of capital risk could complicate the long-term earnings capabilities of this sector. Almost all of these firms are involved in Personal, Corporate/Business, Real Estate, Trade, Global financing, Currency, and Bond related business ventures. These firms are not remotely immune to any “Shockwave” – they are located right in the Bullseye/Target zone.
We believe the XLF may come under increased pressure over the next 3~6+ weeks as the Shockwave event continues to unfold. We believe issues with Personal/Consumer credit will be the first sign of a Shockwave event and further pressures from Corporate/Business/Global/Currencies would likely be the second shoe to drop over the next 8+ months. We believe a rotation in the XLF to near $25 is very likely over the next 3~6 months and that this move could be the result of extended risk factors originating from the “Shockwave event” we’ve been suggesting is currently unfolding.
Skilled traders should be watching technology stocks, the NASDAQ, the INDU, the Financial Sector and commodity prices over the next 4+ months for any signs that the Shockwave event is increasing in amplitude. Additionally, pay very close attention to how currencies are moving and where the US Dollar is moving in relation to other currencies. Gold and Silver should also be on your radar over the next few months as well. Lastly, prepare for the major cycle event in July/August 2019.
The past four tradings sessions with volatility has kept us busy check out our most recent index trades on the SP500
Our advice continues to be to look for opportunities as the volatility increases and continue to expect an upside price bias in the US stock market – at least until we have any strong evidence that price trend has changed. Don’t buy into the doom-sayers just yet. In our opinion, this US upside price move is not over yet.
If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart14.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-07 22:31:392019-05-07 22:36:44US/China Trade Issues Create SHOCKWAVE Around The Globe
Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low. We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern. This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.
Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area. It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th. Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.
You may remember our analysis from January 2019 regarding the ADL price predictions for Gold (the chart is below). Pay very close attention to the “April/May 2019” dates as we are targeting that low price level right now and the upside price potential showing predicted price levels well above $1400.
Skilled traders need to try to understand a move like this in Gold will likely be predicated on some external global news events that create a level of fear in the markets. We don’t know what they may be at the moment, but our suspicions are that they are going to be related to the EU and/or China (or both).
This is it. This should be the last low price rotation (if it happens) before Gold begins to skyrocket higher. Pay attention and remember we were very early in making this call – so it will be an incredible run if it happens as we predicted 5 months ago.
With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Coursesare designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart36.png585700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-30 10:30:362019-04-30 10:30:36Gold May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows
Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen. Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections. We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year. Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago. We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.
The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling. With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders. What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?
Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.
First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday. This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week. A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings. I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time. These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.
With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets. We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ). At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.
Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24). It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future. Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms. The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks. Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/
The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked. Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong. We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs. It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.
The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050. As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations. Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.
Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966). This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move. Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other. We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now. Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs. Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months. But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.
Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA. Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion. Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation. We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past. Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility. This aligns with our broader market analysis. The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis. Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.
If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart29.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-29 09:50:002019-04-29 09:50:00Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared
