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Indexes Struggle and TRAN Chart suggests a possible top

Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year.  History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.  It appears in 2019 is no different.  Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.

We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials.  In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size.  Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.

DAILY YM CHART

This Daily YM chart highlights the trading range that has setup over the past 5+ months with the YELLOW LEVELS.  Price continues to tighten into a more narrow range as we progress towards the end of 2019.  Our researchers believe a moderate price breakdown will occur near the apex of this move which will act as a “price reversion event” and allow the markets to rally into 2020 and beyond.  We are using our proprietary price modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs that can help us validate this research.  Until we have some type of validation of the move, we can only wait as the risks associated with taking trades at this time are much higher than normal.

The SP500 cycle analysis I did last week provides some solid forward-looking direction as well.

TRAN – TRANSPORTATION INDEX

The TRAN (Transportation Index) is also confirming our analysis of a sideways price range with very little opportunity at the moment for a high-risk trade.  The TRAN gapped higher on October 21 which may set up a massive top pattern formation, possibly a Three River Evening Star pattern of a massive Engulfing Bearish pattern.  We’ve highlighted the resistance range in RED on this chart and the support range in GREEN.  Caution is the name of the game right now.  Let the markets tell us what is going to happen next.

THE WEEKLY CHART OF THE TRAN

This Weekly chart of the TRAN shows a clearer picture of the sideways price range that is setting up and how close we are to the APEX of the Flag/Pennant formation.  Again, we know the markets are going to break clear of this Flag/Pennant formation, but the direction of the breakout will likely depend on future news events that we can’t predict.  Any global failure or crisis may push the markets lower.  Any global victory or success may push the markets higher.  Right now, we believe the risk factors are very high and we are suggesting that traders need to be extremely cautious throughout the end of the year.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

There are still massive opportunities in sector ETFs and commodity ETFs for traders that want to find quick/short-term trades.  Gold and Silver are setting up major momentum bottoms.  Natural Gas continues to set up a massive momentum bottom and Technology continues to set up a major topping type of pattern.  The shift in capital away from risk will surely drive some really big trends over the next few weeks and months.  A clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on my market trend charts to know when I should be buying or selling positions. Skilled technical traders will be able to find incredible opportunities if they are patient and don’t “blow up” their accounts chasing risky rotation.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals And VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher

The recent rotation in the US stock market and US major indexes have set up a very interesting pattern in the Metals and VIX charts.  Our researchers believe precious metals, Gold and Silver, are setting up a new momentum base/bottom and are beginning an early stage bullish price rally that may surprise many traders.  If you have not been following our research, please take a minute to read these past research posts :

September 24, 2019: IS SILVER ABOUT TO BECOME THE SUPER-HERO OF PRECIOUS METALS?

September 19, 2019: PRECIOUS METALS SETTING UP ANOTHER MOMENTUM BASE/BOTTOM

Our researchers believe the bottom in Metals has already set up on October 1, 2019.  This setup aligns with our earlier analysis that a new bullish price leg is setting up that will propel Gold to levels above $1600 before the end of November – possibly resulting in a rally that attempts to breach the $1700 price level.

DAILY GOLD CHART

Of course, for Gold to rally in this manner, some type of extended fear must enter the global markets.  We believe this fear could become known to traders within 3 to 10+ days based on our understanding of the schedules and calendars available within the news cycle.  The US/China trade talks appear to be breaking down again.  News that one of India’s largest banks is in the process of collapsing hit last weekend. And news that the US political parties are about to ramp up nearly all levels of activity ahead of the 2020 US Presidential election cycle is sure to throw the markets a few curve-balls.

As skilled technical traders, there are times when we must understand how the news cycles and external events can have dramatic impact on prices and trends in the financial markets.  These are times when we must protect our assets by deploying very skilled trades, proper position sizing and become even more skilled at understanding the global stock market dynamics.

DAILY SILVER CHART

Silver, or as we have termed it “The Super-HERO of Metals”, will likely move much higher, even faster than Gold.  If our research is correct, the next upside price leg in Metals will see Silver rally to levels well above $20, then stall briefly, then begin a move to levels above $26 (or higher).  The Gold to Silver ratio will likely fall to levels near 65 throughout this move.  That would mean that Silver would appreciate about 11% to 15% faster than Gold will appreciate over the next 60 to 90+ days.

VIX – DAILY VOLATILITY INDEX CHART

And finally, the VIX.  At this point, our research team believes a broader downside price rotation has already begun to set up in the US stock market (with Technology and “unicorn” sectors at severe risk) which may prompt a move in prices to retest the December 2018 lows.  This is why we believe the VIX is very likely to begin an upside price move over the next 30 to 60+ days and attempt to break above the 26 to 27 level as the US stock market reacts to increased fear and uncertainty.  This is, obviously, also why we believe Gold and Silver will begin to move dramatically higher very quickly.

September 17, 2019: VIX TO BEGIN A NEW UPTREND AND WHAT IT MEANS

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our researchers are attempting to follow all the news and price activity we can handle over the past 4+ weeks or longer.  At this point, it seems all the global markets are unstable in terms of price trends, extended volatility, and uncertainty.  We believe our expectations within the metals markets, us stock market and the VIX predictions are relatively saved expectations given the research we’ve completed.

It would be wise for skilled traders to prepare for a moderate to deep price correction at this point.  Price has failed to move higher above historic all-time high price levels and has begun to move lower.  Unless some extremely positive news, event or outcome is reached within the next 90+ days, it is very likely that price will continue to rotate within established ranges attempting to identify true support levels.  This ride could become very volatile – very quickly.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. My simple technical trading strategy using ETFs will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it so you never get caught on the wrong side of the market with big losses.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Bottom

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders don’t grasp just yet is that the US market could continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months, while precious metals continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months.  The reality is the fear and greed driving the upside price move in metals is related to foreign market concerns (China/Asia, Europe/EU/BREXIT, Arab/Iran/Israel, and others).  The true fear is that some type of war or economic event will start while the global markets are fragile.  The recent news that the overnight Repo Market is seizing is another indication that the global credit market is very fragile.  What will it take to launch metals higher?  We believe the world is waiting for this next event to happen while this momentum base continues to set up.

GOLD DAILY CHART

This Gold Daily chart highlights the momentum base setup between $1480 and $1525.  Any entry below $1500 is a relatively solid entry point for skilled technical traders.  The next upside target based on our Fibonacci price modeling tool is $1795.  Thus, the real upside move potential at this point is another +20% for Gold.

SILVER DAILY CHART

Silver is setting up a similar momentum base pattern after reaching levels just below $20 per ounce.  We still believe the early October breakout date is relevant and we believe the next upside target will be between $21 to $24 in Silver.  Any entry level below $17.60 is a solid area for skilled technical traders preparing for the next upside price leg.

There has been a lot of talk from analysts and researchers that Gold could rally well past $5,000 if the markets collapse.  One analysis came out recently and suggest Gold could rally above $23,000.  We are a bit more conservative with our initial upside target of $3,750.

The bottom line is you really don’t want to miss this opportunity in the precious metals markets once it forms a bottom and starts to rally.  This recent price rotation is a gift for skilled technical traders.  If you were to take a minute and really consider how precious metals would react to a foreign market credit collapse on top of the potential for a collapsing economic outlook resulting from the credit collapse, you’ll quickly understand that trillions of dollars will be seeking safety and security in the metals markets in due time.

My Wealth Building ETF Newsletter will hold your hand, and tell you what trades to take as these events unfold including the entry price, price targets, and most importantly stop prices. If you like what I offer ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Silver Will Pause Before Going Higher

Silver will likely find resistance near $15.60 and move slightly lower before another upside price leg takes place.  Both gold and silver have begun incredible price rallies over the past 10+ days and we believe this is just the start of a much bigger price trend.

We believe Silver, to be one of the absolute best potential trades and investment. It will likely pause just below $15.75, near the First Resistance level, rotate a bit lower (possibly towards $15.15), then attempt another rally towards the $16.50 level.

Daily Silver Chart Analysis

The $15.60 to $15.75 resistance level can be seen on this chart by our RED highlighted price peaks. Additionally, the upper RESISTANCE ZONE between $16.15 and $16.78 is a big range that has historically been a key price channel.

My cycle and trend trading indicators are suggesting this move is far from over, yet we believe this move upward will happen in advancement legs and this first leg is nearing exhaustion.  This is why we are issuing this warning to all investors right now.  We believe a downward price rotation, a stalling price pattern, will set up where a technical trader will be able to acquire silver below $15.25 again very soon.  The next leg higher may start fairly quickly as we don’t expect this rotation to extend out for many weeks.

See Our Previous Silver Breakout Prediction Call on June 7th

Monthly Silver Chart

This Monthly Silver chart with our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system suggests upside targets of $17.00 (CYAN), $17.65 (GREEN), and $18.50 (DARK RED).  Our RESISTANCE ZONE level on the chart, above, aligns perfectly with these objectives because the price would first have to rally into the RESISTANCE ZONE and break through this level to push to any higher target levels.

Therefore, we believe this upside price move won’t run into any solid resistance until reaching above the $16.30 level and possibly as high as the $16.75 to $17.00 level.  At that point, the price of Silver should find real resistance, stall, and set up for the next breakout move higher.

At this point, if you have not been following our research and analysis of the precious metals sector and already positioned your trades for this move, you should get another chance to set up some long trades as this downside price rotation takes place.  Remember, wait for silver to fall close to or below $15.25 before targeting your new trade entry.  This bottom in silver may only last for a few short trading periods, so when it happens, be ready with your orders.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The next upside leg in Silver should rally for a total of about +6% to +10% targeting the $16.25 to $17.00 price level – the RESISTANCE ZONE.  After that price level is reached and price consolidates to likely form another momentum base, another upside price leg should push the price of Silver towards our Monthly Fibonacci price targets – somewhere towards $18.00 to $18.50 before stalling again. !

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally

Here we go again..  We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research.  Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019 .  We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.

On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”.  Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future.  Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.

Our current research suggests the bottoming is over and the new price leg should begin to prompt a Gold price rally over the next 5~7+ weeks targeting a level well above $1375 initially.

This Daily Gold chart highlights the price rotation and the Double-Bottom that has currently set up in Gold.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price leg targeting at least $1330 (on this Daily chart) will become the initial upside price leg.  Remember, the Daily Fibonacci modeling system is predicting price moves over 10~30+ days.

 

This Weekly Gold chart is highlighting the same Fibonacci predictive price modeling system on long term data – weekly data.  You can see how we’ve highlighted the price rotation peaks and valleys as well as how the Fibonacci modeling system is predicting a broader upside price move with a target near $1425 or higher.

If you pay attention to the MAGENTA price rotations we’ve highlighted throughout the initial upside price move, you’ll see there are a total of FIVE (5) rotations within that first price leg.  A perfect 5 wave rotation upward.  Then, the following downside price move consisted of a THREE (3) wave downside price move – resulting in a DOUBLE-BOTTOM price formation.  Should this next wave, wave C, rally in equal form to Wave A, the upside price target for the move would be $1450.  We believe this next price advance will be bigger than Wave A and likely result in a price target range well above $1650.

 

As we’ve been saying for many months, get ready and here we go.  Once the protectionist moves into Cryptos have waned and traders realize the magnitude of this potential precious metals rally (as well as the fact that Cryptos will not provide the same level of protection as precious metals), the hunt for the shiny metals will be on.  It would be very wise to stay well ahead of this move and prepare for this upside leg now.

We have been trying to tell you about this move for over 6+ months.  We hope you’ve been paying attention and understand that even with a 4% to 8% price risk (or more) in your accumulation of Gold/Miners and precious metals positions, this trade is for the longer-term objective – not the short-term 8 to 12%.  This next upside price move could target the $2100 to $2400 level if it extends into a complex advancement wave.  That would mean Wave C could end well above $2100 and that Wave E could target the $5000 level or much higher.

We’ll keep you informed of this move, but you better start planning for this upside move before you miss this bottom. And just because we like to hear it – remember, we called this move back in November 2018 – over 6 months ago.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.

Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

The Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom?

Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”.  They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future.  The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.

So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable.  We’re here to help.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move.  The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research.  The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.

Let’s start with the Weekly YM chart.  The GREEN highlighted box on this chart shows where the past two Bullish Fibonacci price trigger levels were generated.  These, obviously, become key support levels going forward.  The narrow ORANGE box near the current peak is the resistance channel we highlighted many weeks ago that suggested a volatility rotation peak may be setting up.  We have also drawn an oblique/circle on the chart in BLUE that highlights upside Fibonacci target price levels.

It is our opinion that a further downside leg, possibly to levels below $25,000, are possible as this Shake-Out continues and as the global markets continue to revalue expectations.  We are watching the currencies very closely as the Chinese Yuan has devalued extensively over the past few days.  This US Dollar strength will keep metals fairly flat while prompting some extra stability in the US stock market over time.

 

This next chart, the NQ Weekly, shows a similar chart format to that of the YM.  Clear resistance can be seen near the recent highs and support is found near the $6600 level from previous Fibonacci Bullish Price Trigger Levels.  The NQ, being very heavily weighted in Technology and Internet stocks, may have the ability to fall the furthest within this price rotation – possibly as much as -700 to -800 pts before finding support.  Currently, a support level near $7400 is the first level we are watching.  If the NQ breaks below this level, then we could see a much bigger move to the downside unfold fairly quickly.

 

Lastly, the Transportation Index (TRAN) is showing us that the downside price move may have already reached a level that may prompt intermediate price support – or a potential base formation.  The $10,400 to $10,500 level, which was already reached, appears to be the initial support level for the TRAN.  It would make sense that the TRAN may begin to base near this level over the next few days/weeks while the US stock market attempts to hammer out a bottom.

Ultimately, the $10,000 level has proven to be very strong historical support for the TRAN.  So any breakdown in this index would immediately prompt a target level of $10,000 for the next support level.  Again, pay attention to the US Dollar and Gold as this movement continues.  Any real fear will translate into a weaker US Dollar and increasing prices in precious metals.

 

In closing, we believe the early signs of a potential price bottom are setting up right now.  This may not be the ultimate bottom, but the clear support level in the TRAN is a very good sign that the markets are setting up a support base that may prompt some sideways trading over the next few weeks as the market continues to digest all this global trade news.  A deeper “washout-low” price formation may set up in the INDU or the NQ over the next few days which means we may see a deeper price rotation before the downtrend actually ends.

Right now, pay attention to our continued research and we’ll help you find the bottom when it forms.  Our current expectations are for a continued downside price move that will establish a washout-low formation over the next 3 to 10 trading days.  We’re not out of the woods yet, but we are starting to see the early signs of price support – which means a bottom may not be too far off.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY

On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position today for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started today is up already 10%.

Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 13 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Bitcoin Setting Up For Another Drop

Last year just days before the big Bitcoin breakdown we notified everyone publicly to get ready for a swift drop from $6000 to $4000 which played out perfectly within a few days. Our cycle system and technical analysis skills combined can pack a powerful punch and this one of those incredible moves where the stars aligned for us as traders.

October 12, 2018 – Post and Chart Here

 

We then further updated our followers in March of this year that a breakout was about to take place and a run to $6000 should take place. After that upside breakout move on April 8th, we posted this video further confirming $5800-$6000 was still the target.

Today/May Bitcoin appears to be setting up a broader top formation that suggests another move lower is about to unfold.

This first Daily chart highlights both support and resistance in Bitcoin.  The Resistance goes all the way back to July 2018 where a Three River Morning Star pattern set up a gap with a Doji Star formation.  This created the support level that was ultimately broken in November 2018.  Support formed near $4000 in early 2019 with similar types of gap formations.  This support level was ultimately broken in April 2019 with a move back up to resistance near $6000.

 

We believe the setup of the most recent price activity is setting up a classic three mountains top formation.  A weak price rotation prompting a downside price move right now could be a short term ultimately top with next support near $5000. We believe a fairly quick downside price move toward the $4400 level (or lower) – near support.

Once price move to near the $4400 price level, or lower, if the support level is broken, we could see the price of Bitcoin fall all the way towards the $3500 level or lower.  Fibonacci price theory suggests the failed high price move, near $7500, would represent a major failed high.  This failure suggests a move lower attempting to establish a new price low.  For this to happen, the price of Bitcoin would have to fall below $3000 which may sound crazy, but so was $20,000 bitcoin!

Watch for a reversal to unfold in the coming days, could be another opportunity to profit from another cryptocurrency collapse. Any failure of this breakdown/reversal move would suggest Bitcoin is setting up a new Pennant/Flag formation where the price will trade sideways before prompting a bigger breakout move.  We believe a price breakdown is about to unfold and we expect prices to fall below $4400 within 14 to 28 days.

If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com