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About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Crash Again?

Does history repeat itself?  Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up?  What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?

First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup.  This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen.  We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike.  They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.

Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup?  We hope not.

The peak that occurred in 2007 setup about 19 months before the 2008 Presidential election took place.  The 2019 peak occurs about 13 months before the 2020 Presidential election.  In both instances, a highly contentious political battle is taking place which may distract traders and investors from really paying attention to the underlying factors of the global markets.

A real estate crash is no something to dismiss. For most of the people, their home is the nest egg, or their largest investment and watching this asset tumble in value 10, 20, 30% or more is serious. Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.

2007 VS 2019 REAL ESTATE MARKET TOPPING FORMATIONS

Recent economic data suggests that builders and permits experienced an increase over the past 60 days – which is vastly different than what happened in 2006-2007.  By the time the Bear Flag had setup in IYR in 2007, new building permits had already started to fall dramatically – for at least 12+ months prior to March 2007.  Currently, the number of building permits on record is sitting near 50% of the range established between 2000 and 2009.

We authored a number of research articles this year that more clearly highlight our expectations:
– PART II – Is The Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?
– Are Real Estate ETFs the Next Big Trade?

The recent increase in building permits could indicate a euphoric level of buying/flipping by builders and speculators thinking “its easy to make profits flipping these homes in this market”.  Much like the euphoric activity before the 2007 crash.

The collapse that happened after the Bear Flag setup in IYR in 2007 resulted in a dramatic -73% decline in value over a very short 24 month period.  Could something like this happen again in today’s market?

Our research team raised a couple of interesting points relating to the potential for a “rollover” type of event taking place over the next 12+ months.

First, the US Presidential election cycle could setup a very real fear that a new president could attempt to derail/damage the marketplace with new policies, taxes and other unknowns.

Second, the current Real Estate market has experienced real price growth for almost 10+ years since the 2009-2010 bottom and wage earners may already be priced out of certain markets – reducing overall demand at current price levels.

Third, a lot of recent news has been published showing massive amounts of people moving away from larger cities/states like New York, California, New Jersey, Chicago, and other locations.  These people are moving away from higher taxes and housing costs and trying to move to areas that are cheaper and quieter.

Forth, there are an estimated 40+ million “baby boomer” homes that must be liquidated over the next 10+ years as these people/families transition into elderly status.

The reality is that unless price levels revert to levels that make housing more affordable or earnings levels dramatically increase over the next 3+ years, the price level for homes in the US and Canada is already historically high.

2007 REAL ESTATE HOUSING SELLOFF

REAL ESTATE PRICES/VALUATION TESTING 2007 EXTREME HIGHS

How high?  Take a look at this last chart of IYR and pay attention to the fact that current price levels are already at the historic high price levels from 2007.  This should tell you almost all you need to know.

Unless earning levels somehow rise dramatically over the next 24 to 36+ months, housing prices are already at or near peak levels for most consumers – even if the US Fed decreases interest rates another 25 to 50 bp.

The other thing to consider is what type of new policies, taxes, costs would a new US president do to the housing market and global stock market?  What would happen in Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were to suddenly take the lead in the polls wanting to raise taxes on everyone and install new trillion-dollar policies while attacking America’s millionaires and billionaires?  Think that may have some pull on the markets?

Our researchers believe we should cautiously watch IYR for further signs of weakness over the next few weeks and months.  Yes, there is a very real potential that the US and global housing markets could collapse over the next few years – but right now we are looking at a Bear Flag pattern that may be an early warning sign of a potential price selloff.  Nothing is confirmed yet but any week now could spark the start of something ugly for home prices.

Yes, housing market economic data show some weakening while building permits and construction ramped up last month.  Housing has certainly reached a mature economic state and we believe any collapse in the global stock market could send a wave of fear throughout the housing market as people attempt to get out before prices start to collapse. We’ll keep you updated as we continue to watch the Real Estate market and our researchers pour over the data.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

We’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Oil Begins To Move Lower – Will Our Predictions Come True?

Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future.  Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal.  On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?

Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/

OUR ORIGINAL RESEARCH CHART FROM JULY 2019

Our original research post, from July 2019, included this chart showing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system and where it believed the price of oil would go in the future.  This chart highlights expected price ranges and directions all the way into April 2020 with a low price level near $25 somewhere between February and April 2020.  Is Oil really going to reach a low price near $25 ppb in the near future?

On July 10, 2019, we authored a research article using our ADL predictive modeling for Oil.  At that time, we predicted Oil would fall in August, recover in September and October, then collapse to near $42 (or lower) in November and December.  You can read our followup to this article here.

In order for these predictions to continue to hold true, Crude Oil will have to fall below $47 ppb over the next 30+ days and then consolidate through December and January into a fairly tight price range between $42 and $49.  If this happens as we predicted back in July, then there would be a much higher probability that the February, March and April price targets are valid going forward.

On November 19, Crude oil reversed quite extensively to the downside after weeks of upward price pressure.  We believe this downside price rotation may be setting up a bigger, deeper price move that is aligned with our ADL predictive modeling systems results from July 2019 – eventually targeting the sub $50 price level near the end of November or early December. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This potential move in Crude Oil is setting up a potentially great trade for active traders if you know how to profit from falling prices and I even talked about how to trade this move in my member’s only trading newsletter service. Remember, if our ADL research is correct, December and January will see very mild price action in Oil.  The bigger breakdown move happens in late January or early February.

On Monday another commodity gave us another trade and it popped 3.4% in our favor within the first trading session. Big moves in stocks, metals, and energy are ready for big price swings here, get ready!

As a trader, you need to be aware of the greater implications for the global markets if Crude Oil falls below $45 ppb (eventually, possibly falling below $30 ppb).  A large portion of the global market depends on oil prices being relatively stable above $50 ppb.  A decrease in oil prices will place extreme pressures on certain nations to maintain oil production and to generate essential revenues.  Depending on how this plays out in the future, falling oil prices could translate into far greater risks for the global stock markets and global economics.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Trader Ltd.

Gold Cycle Forecast Signals Bottom Is Near

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1450 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.

GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/

GOLD CYCLE FORECAST – DAILY CHART

Take a look at the most active cycles for gold and where our gold forecast is pointing to next. The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most.  This new momentum base should setup and complete once the gold cycles bottom.  The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.

GOLD MINERS SELL OFF – DAILY CHART

Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.

HAVE YOU OUTPERFORMED GDXJ THIS YEAR?

If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?

Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.

Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up when our cycle bottoms – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Bottom

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders don’t grasp just yet is that the US market could continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months, while precious metals continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months.  The reality is the fear and greed driving the upside price move in metals is related to foreign market concerns (China/Asia, Europe/EU/BREXIT, Arab/Iran/Israel, and others).  The true fear is that some type of war or economic event will start while the global markets are fragile.  The recent news that the overnight Repo Market is seizing is another indication that the global credit market is very fragile.  What will it take to launch metals higher?  We believe the world is waiting for this next event to happen while this momentum base continues to set up.

GOLD DAILY CHART

This Gold Daily chart highlights the momentum base setup between $1480 and $1525.  Any entry below $1500 is a relatively solid entry point for skilled technical traders.  The next upside target based on our Fibonacci price modeling tool is $1795.  Thus, the real upside move potential at this point is another +20% for Gold.

SILVER DAILY CHART

Silver is setting up a similar momentum base pattern after reaching levels just below $20 per ounce.  We still believe the early October breakout date is relevant and we believe the next upside target will be between $21 to $24 in Silver.  Any entry level below $17.60 is a solid area for skilled technical traders preparing for the next upside price leg.

There has been a lot of talk from analysts and researchers that Gold could rally well past $5,000 if the markets collapse.  One analysis came out recently and suggest Gold could rally above $23,000.  We are a bit more conservative with our initial upside target of $3,750.

The bottom line is you really don’t want to miss this opportunity in the precious metals markets once it forms a bottom and starts to rally.  This recent price rotation is a gift for skilled technical traders.  If you were to take a minute and really consider how precious metals would react to a foreign market credit collapse on top of the potential for a collapsing economic outlook resulting from the credit collapse, you’ll quickly understand that trillions of dollars will be seeking safety and security in the metals markets in due time.

My Wealth Building ETF Newsletter will hold your hand, and tell you what trades to take as these events unfold including the entry price, price targets, and most importantly stop prices. If you like what I offer ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Where’s the Market bottom? Is This It?

Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend.  Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT?  The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”

Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for.  This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets.  Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we’ve been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.

At this time, if you have not been paying attention to our research and have not already scaled back your long trades in preparation for this type of volatility, you may get one more chance to reposition your portfolio before the move really breaks.  We believe the US markets are over-reacting to this US/China trade issue and the new tariffs with regards to this current downside price move.  We believe that once the news settles and reality returns, investors will suddenly realize the US economic outlook, as well as 4th quarter expectations, are much more opportunistic than current global trade issues.

There are three critical aspects that we, as skilled technical traders, have to consider at this time.

_  First, the 6 to 18-month pre-election price weakness cycle that should prompt a price decline sometime between now and May or June 2020.  Every major Presidential election cycle in the US has prompted this type of price weakness cycle as concerns regarding the future leadership in the US as well as a moderate economic stagnation in the US related to the election cycle create a pause/rotation in the US equity markets.  Is it starting early because of the US/China trade issues?  Take a minute to read this.

_  Second, the global trade issues and Asia/China banking issues present a very interesting dynamic related to global expectations.  As we’re reported, Asia/China have attempted to take advantage of cheap US Dollar QE functions and extended this debt into all sorts of projects and banking instruments.  As the US Fed pushes interest rates higher while the Asian/Chinese economic outlook weakens, at some point the Asian/Chinese markets may enter a “death spiral” mode with a domino-effect type of collapse.  Once the Asian/Chinese economy turns from expansion/growth to contraction/fear, it is just a matter of time before panic sets in as consumers watch assets, markets, capital and opportunity contract into the abyss.  How much longer can China continue to keep their citizens immune from reality? Take a minute to read this.

_  Third, the EU is starting to crumble under the weight of the lack of foreign investment and growth expectations.  Recent news suggests that Germany has entered a negative rate process with GDP and manufacturing shrinking considerably over the past 16+ months.  We believe this contraction in the EU is starting to take root and could be a much broader problem in the EU than anyone really wants to admit. Take a minute to read this.

ES Mini – SP500 Index Daily Chart

Using our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system, we’re going to attempt to highlight why we believe this move may be very close to being over (bottoming) and why traders need to pay attention to the rotation/reversion that may begin to unfold very shortly.  First, we’ll take a look at this ES Daily chart and we want all of our readers to pay attention to the deeper price low setup in June 2019.  Until the current price breaks below that low price level, near 2720, Fibonacci price theory teaches us that this downside rotation is nothing more than a bearish price rotation in a BULLISH trend.  Fibonacci price theory suggests that price will attempt to identify new price support (likely near the GREY and RED projected Fib price levels on the right side of the chart) and then attempt to rotate higher after support has been found.

If our analysis is correct, then the price has already found support, near 2900, and is already exploring a “washout low” price level below this critical support level on the ES.  This would suggest that price may attempt a rebound upside price move (reversion) back to levels near 3000 fairly quickly once this downside pricing pressure (news) abates.

Just like we saw back in May, we profited from the rally before the May sell-off, then we profited from the falling market using SDS just like we did again for the recent rally now this market crash/correction. Our Current SDS ETF is up over 8.5% in a couple of days during a time when everyone else is losing a lot of money.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Daily Chart

This INDU chart paints a similar picture where price has already broken lower, below the 26,000 GREY Fibonacci projected target level and is currently resting just 400 points above the ORANGE Moving Average support level.  If our analysis is correct and this is a washout low price rotation that will prompt a price reversion move, the upside potential in the INDU is +1000 to +1750 points higher.

NASDAQ Daily Chart

Lastly, this NASDAQ chart represents the most volatile of the three markets we are highlighting.  The NQ Fibonacci price modeling system suggests the downside price move has yet to reach the GREY or RED Fibonacci projected targets and that suggests the NQ could still see some price weakness over the next few days.  Overall, though, the ES and INDU are suggesting the bottom is likely already starting to form and we would not be surprised to see the NQ trading above 7800 before August 19, 2019 (+300 points).

The one thing we want to keep in mind is that the total global stock market matrix is not a single entity – it is a combination of various entities that make up a basket of trading instruments.  As the old saying goes, it is not a “stock market”, it is a “market of stocks”.

Pay attention to how capital shifts play out as we get nearer to the US election date and what is happening throughout the world.  The German elections, BREXIT, Asian/Chinese market turmoil and commodity price deflation are all playing out to generate these huge swings in the global markets.  Our members have already seen incredible success from our calls and trades.  Isn’t it time for you to learn how TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you stay ahead of these incredible market moves?

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed for the next. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern

In less than two weeks, our prediction that Natural Gas would move lower into our “basing zone”, between $2.00 and $2.20, has come true.  Natural Gas has fallen into our expected basing/bottoming zone and traders should be looking to target low price entries as the extended setup of this base takes place.

You can read our original research post regarding our Natural Gas analysis from June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

It is our belief that anytime Natural Gas falls below $2.20, or lower, traders should consider jumping into NG related ETFs or NG future as this bottoming zone will likely push NG back above $2.35~$2.40 fairly quickly.  Historically, any price move to levels closer to $2.00 have been very strong support for Natural Gas and this early basing pattern is setting up for an incredible opportunity for traders.

Ideally, we are expecting an upside the month of July to represent continue basing/bottoming in NG where we expect NG prices to rotate between $2.00 and $2.75.  There is a moderate change that NG prices may attempt a move above $2.75 after July 20.

We believe August will result in a sideways downward sloping price pattern that may last only through the first 10 to 15+ days of August.  The month of August is typically relatively muted in terms of price trend but includes greater price volatility – bigger price bar ranges.

The big breakout move will likely begin to happen in late August or early September.  September, October, and November are all historically strong months for NG.  September is the strongest month historically, October represents about half the upside strength of September and November represents, again, about half the upside strength of October.

Overall, this basing/bottoming pattern in NG is something skilled traders do not want to lose focus of.  The opportunity at these sub $2.25 levels is incredible if traders are able to time their entries and plan for the August/September upside price launch.  Looking back at historical price patterns, we could begin an upside price bias (a slower moving upside price trend) in early July.  After NG hammers our a bottom near this $2.00 level and settles near support, the new trend should become evident as an upside price bias before the August/September liftoff.

This Daily NG chart shows the RED and CYAN Fibonacci projection levels (near $2.18 and $2.28).  These levels will act as both a floor and ceiling for the future price as the basing pattern continues.  Any breakdown in price below $2.18 would be a great entry level for skilled traders.  There is a potential that price could drift a bit lower, possibly down to near $2.00 over the next few weeks, but we believe the basing/bottoming setup is beginning and support will be found above $2.00.

This Weekly NG chart shows a BLUE rectangle that highlights the support level identified by our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system.  Right now, this support level is between $2.10 and $2.30.  These Fibonacci downward price projection points on the Weekly chart represent expected levels/targets for downward price SUPPORT to form.  In other words, from the last price peak, price should move lower and target these Fibonacci projected targets where they will likely stall, bottom or attempt to find support – potentially setting up a new price “trough”.

We believe the next upside price move will happen between now and July 25th where NG will move from the $2.15 level to somewhere near $2.55 to $2.65.  After that move, we expect the price of NG to stall briefly before beginning another leg higher towards $3.00 or higher.  Our expectations of that last leg are that it may begin near mid-August and really begin to accelerate as we get closer/into September.

Remember, this is a very early set up – we still have 40+ days of expected basing/bottoming before any real upside potential is likely.  Now is the time to trade this as short term 4~8% price objectives taking very skilled trades near the low price levels and targeting quick profits.  As we enter July and move into August, we suggest traders switch from the short-term scalping mode and begin to consider the September, October & November historical price patterns to truly understand the upside potential.

Take a look at that huge move in 2018 over those same three months (September, October, November) in the chart above.  That move started from the $2.65 level and ran all the way up to near $5.00.  The same thing could happen again this year with price originating from a $2.00 basing level.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in the energy sector but in metals, and stock indexes and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand guide and charts. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, Nat Gas is oversold and showing signs of a bounce.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Take a look at my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms

On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce.  This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions.  There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.

You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.

Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post.  These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley).  The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move.  The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg.  The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).

In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed-through exactly as we predicted.

This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels.  As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations.  Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations.  But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.

Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup.  They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.

This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed.  It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this.  Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.

At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg).  This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon.  There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.

Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs.  The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets.  After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.

Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg.  The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals.  This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time.  Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.

More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here

We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

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Chris Vermeulen

US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom?

The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50.  This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about.  Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.

This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.

It is important to understand the strength in the US dollar and the US economy should continue unless something interrupts the growth and continued out what from the US. It is very likely capital will continue to seek out the best returns and the best safety which we believe is available only in the US right now. Eventually, things may change where foreign markets become more opportunistic for investors and capital begins to shift away from the US markets. Until that happens we believe the US markets will continue to drive higher and likely push towards new all-time highs.

The strength of the US dollar is muting the upside potential in precious metals as well as the US stock market. We believe the underlying strength and opportunities resulting from the capital shift, where capital is rushing into US markets, will eventually override the strength of the US dollar. In other words, investors will continue to pour money into US stocks and into precious metals as a protection mechanism against risk while the US dollar continues to rise.  If and when the US dollar does rate below the lower price channel, the US stock market may likely breakdown as well and precious metals should skyrocket higher. Until that time, we expect a moderate price advance to continue in the US stock market major and mid-cap sectors, the US dollar, and precious metals.

Gold will likely rally from the 1340 level to just below 1380 on the next leg. Then Gold will likely cause and rotate to near 1360, pause briefly, then rally to levels above 1400. We believe this rally may happen before July 12-15, 2019.

Follow our research to stay ahead of the market moves.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 will include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We’ve also been calling these major moves very accurately. With the US elections only 15 months away, we urge all traders and investors to pay very close attention to our research and insights.

We have recently suggested that a major price may set up in late August or early September 2019. Once we get to this date or closer to this inflection point, we’ll provide more insight as to what our modeling systems are suggesting.

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I have taken advantage of the flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, and most importantly precious metals (GLD up 3.68%, GDXJ up 11.16%). I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members was a quick 3.11% winner. Our VIX ETF trade also hit our 25% profit target within a few days of entry.

Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who joins me with a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription if you a current subscriber or join one of these two exciting offers below, and you will receive:

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Chris Vermeulen

Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected

We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.  Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.  In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.  Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted.  In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again.  At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows.  Guess what happened?  The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.

We’ve recently called the precious metals move perfectly with our originating research being done in October 2018.  We called the Oil downturn in 2018 as well as the rally starting near December 2018.  Now, we are going to share with you some incredible market insights and help you prepare for what will likely become the most frustrating next six months of trading for everyone.

Why is it going to be frustrating?  Because everyone has already made up their minds as to what they expect to happen in the markets and WHY.  We read a report today from an analyst that suggested he “moved into a defensive position and initiated positions in Inverse ETFs and Put Options”.  Probably a smart move if he timed it right.  What he’s going to do over the next 6 months will either make him a king or a pauper.

The fact is that the US stock market has initiated a very moderate downside price rotation recently and multiple levels of support must be breached before we could consider any of the recent downside pricing pressure as a “major trend reversal”.  We believe many of these analysts are hyperventilating with regards to this move and seeing what they want to see from it – THE BEAR MARKET.

At this time, we do not agree with this narrative.  Yes, the US stock market is under pricing pressure.  The US/China trade deal is far from completed and the new US/Mexico tariffs are sure to roil the markets. Europe has just completed EU elections and must continue to navigate the hard questions of future management and opportunity with a BREXIT hanging over everyone’s heads.  The Prime Minister of Malaysia is calling for a new “gold backed SE Asian currency” to help prevent the wild currency valuations as Malaysia saw in the mid-1990s.  The US Presidential election cycle is just 15 months away and it is sure to be a blood-bath in some ways.

Could it be the start of the bear market??  Maybe, but our research suggests otherwise.

Our research suggests there is still another chance that the US stock market could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again.  Be cautious about how we stated this…  “could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again” does not mean “rally beyond recent highs” or “another leg to the upside will take place”.  It means that we believe the current support will prompt a brief price rally back to “near all-time highs” before the end of August 2019.

This Weekly ES chart highlights the support levels we are watching and the peak zone near $2961.  We believe the current support levels will attempt to provide a floor for price above $2630 and will prompt an upside price channel that will likely see price climb higher from recent lows.

The bottom line here for the broad stock market is that we should see bounce over the next couple weeks, then we follow the market higher with a big rally or short a collapse in price.

This chart is a little noisy with analysis and our custom indicator lines but it shows key analysis levels. The same type of setup is also taking place in the NQ – although we believe the NQ may have a bit further downside price risk than the ES or YM at the moment. We believe the support levels near $6800  and $6400 will act as a price floor and attempt to drive price moderately higher over the next 25 to 45 days.  We believe the NQ will come under increased price pressure because of a capital rotation away from risk in Technology and future risk factors.

The YM is setting up very similar to the ES.  Very clear support and the current price level is still relatively bullish compared to the two most recent bigger downside price moves.  The idea that analysts could call this “The Big One” with little to know price confirmation is very confusing.  We believe support above $23,400 will likely hold and price will begin a moderate upside price move (within a channel/pennant formation) over the next 25 to 40+ days in the YM.

One very clear exception to this analysis would be a very clear price breakdown below the lowest support level while attempting to target the December 2018 lows.  Should this happen over the next 30 to 60 days without any sign of the support rotation and upward price channel we are expecting, then we would consider this analysis to have failed and we could be looking at a much bigger downside price move in the US stock markets.  At this point, we don’t believe this will happen UNLESS some massive US or foreign crisis event unfolds over the next 30 to 60+ days.

We believe a shift in the “Capital Shift” process we have been discussing for the past 2+ years is still taking place.  This is a “risk off” move prompted by a renewed FEAR level and currency price trends over the past 6+ months.

This currency chart clearly shows everyone is selling their currency and moving into what they believe is the safest currency which is the USD.

We believe Capital Shift process will go through a weakening process while fear drives investors out of high performing assets. This process will likely shift back towards searching for undervalued US equities as global investors seek new opportunities after these support levels prompt a base.  The hunt to find returns will eventually lead everyone back into the US stock market as there is too much turmoil in the global markets currently.

If you missed this move, sit back and wait for these support levels to settle and then look for new trade opportunities.  There will be lots of time to get into the BIG SHORT TRADE when it finally sets up and confirms.

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Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

My Gold and Miners Rally & Prediction

We’ve been trying to alert all of our followers of the setup in precious metals for well over 6 months.  Here is our research post from February 6, 2019 (nearly 4 months ago) that highlights our prediction of an April 21~24 momentum base and our earlier calls predicting a move above $1300, then a stall and move lower towards the base in April, then the next leg higher.

We could not have been clearer in our analysis and we predicted the bottom and rally in gold in Oct, called the top and closed our GDXJ miners position near the in February, and called for gold to bottom this April/May over 7 months in advance.

 

SEE GOLD PREDICTION CHART FROM OCTOBER 2018
Predicted the rally, then the correction which brings us to today
See Blog Post

 

SEE GOLD CORRECTION FORECAST FEB 6th
Expecting pullback to $1275 level
Read these articles and see for yourself why our research and predictive modeling system are second to none.

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