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Is This The Start Of The Next Bear Market?

Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets.  Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up.  So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.

First things first, the foundation of Fibonacci price theory is that price will always attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS.  Many of the US major indexes have recently established new price highs in early July 2019.  Think of this as a fundamental element in price structure when attempting to apply Fibonacci price theory.

When any chart establishes a new price high (a high price that is above the previous rotational peak level in price), the trend is established as BULLISH and we would immediately expect, at some future time, that price will rotate lower attempting to validate that new price high or attempt to reach a new price low.  At certain times, external news can create “price over-reaction” events within the scope of price volatility.  I’m certain many of you have experienced these types of expanded price ranges that turn into a “wash-out” type of wide-range rotations in the markets.

The combination of the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failures, as well as the rally in Gold, Silver and the US Dollar, are all acting to create a hyper-active rotation in the markets with larger volatility.

We suggest that everyone read these earlier research posts to better understand what is really happening in the markets right now :

July 30, 2019: August 19 Market Top Prediction

July 31, 2019: US Fed is rattling the global markets – Part II

It is our opinion that the US Fed announcement followed immediately by the US/China trade talk failure created a “hyper-active” price rotation event that will likely turn into a short-term buying opportunity.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will attempt to target levels above 8200 before the August 19, 2019 peak sets up.  Therefore, it is still our belief that the markets are setting up a unique “price anomaly” with this current downside price rotation and that a move higher is in the works before the bigger downside price rotation actually begins.

This Daily NQ chart highlights the support level near 7600 that was set up by the June 2019 price rotation.  Yes, the price has moved lower into this zone, but we believe this zone will act as a moderate support level and that price will rotate higher early in the week of August 5, 2019.

This Weekly NQ chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows the “Critical Support” level from the October 2018 highs as well as the Bullish/Bearish trigger levels (the RED/GREEN lines near the right edge of the chart) that constitute confirmed price rotations.  At this time, the current BEARISH trigger levels are near 7540 and the NQ is still 140 points above this level.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders.  Failure to reach levels below 7400 on the NQ would be a very strong indication that this is a “failed new price low rotation” on the Weekly chart.  And, as Fibonacci price theory suggests, price must always attempt to establish a new price high or new price low – at all times.  Thus, a failure to establish a new price low on this weekly chart would mean it MUST rotate higher to attempt to establish a new price high.  8200+, here we come.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Financial Crisis Bear Market Is Scary Close

Everyone knows something bad is brewing not just in the USA but globally within the financial systems. Most countries are bankrupt, and almost all currencies have been losing value for the past year. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs and getting creative with how they borrow, lend, create, and steal money in hopes the world does not catch on to just how corrupt and bad things really are.

It’s just a matter of time before we see another financial market meltdown and what I show you here today gives you an idea of just how close we could be to a market collapse.

The financial markets rarely repeat the same type of crisis, but most crisis’ cause the stock market to sell off and crash in the same way. Human nature and emotions do not change, and because traders and investors drive the price action of stocks we are able to profit from bear markets.

In fact, bear markets can be life-changing in a good way for those who know how to trade these market conditions. Because stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise, you can generate the same amount of returns someone who invested at the beginning of a 10-year bull market and sold at the top, but you can do this in 8-12 months because of how quickly prices fall.

Three Leading Sectors To Watch
Transports, Industrials, Small-Cap Stocks

The transportation sector refers to the transportation of goods or customers using major and regional airlines, railroads, shipping firms, ocean freight haulers, trucking, etc… It is these companies that see a slow down in the economy before almost everyone else as less shipping is required when sales slow or the economy is tightening using less food, fuel, or buying things in general.

The second sector is industrials. This works much like the transportation sector.

Last but not least is the Russell 2ooo small-cap stock index. These small and volatile stocks are the first to show signs that traders and investors are tightening their risk-reward ratios because they feel the stock market is overpriced and that a bear market could be near, and the last type of stock you want to own during a bear market are small-cap stocks.

2016 – 2019 Custom Chart of Three Sectors
Trans (IYT) + Industrials (XLI) + Russell (IWM) / 3

The chart below shows the recent and current day price action of these three leading sectors. Notice the long multi-year rally into the high of 2018 followed by the sharp distribution selling that warns the big money players unloaded their positions in these leading and leveraged sectors.

The 2019 rally has been strong but when you look at the big picture, the price is far from its 2018 highs and the price pattern is bearish (it points to lower prices) from a technical analysis standpoint.


2004 – 2008 Custom Chart of Three Sectors

The last bull market looks nearly identical in terms of the run-up in price, the top in 2007, and the distribution sell-off in these sectors. The 2008 rally was strong as well, but far from the 2007 highs as well.

What I want you to notice is the fact that these charts have moved nearly the same. Just like I mentioned earlier how bear markets price patterns repeat, so do bull market price patterns. The 2009 price action and 2019 price action are nearly identical and when you see the next chart you will see why the financial market is scary close to the next crisis/bear market.


2009 Market Crash Custom Chart
Trans (IYT) + Industrials (XLI) + Russell (IWM) / 3

Bases on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading meaning when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already completed.


Eye Opening Gold Miners Charts and Analysis from 2008-09

There are several other really intriguing things happening that further confirm this analysis like how gold miners are outperforming US stocks, the gold : silver ratio above 85, the presidential cycle, the decade cycle and many more. It was actually all these other things that made me review these leading sectors here today. I’ll touch on these other topics in the next few articles later this week

The chart below shows you what the stock market and gold miners did just before the bull market topped and what they did after. Be aware, if you’re a gold bug you may not like this chart but you can’t argue with the truth of what miners did during the bear market and other bear markets for that matter.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is as of today within this cyclehttps://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/


Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for Part II 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the
next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks

Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months.  Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.

Post 1: NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP

Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM

Our research team now believes that August 19 (+/- 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for.  Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels.  We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.

Volatility Index Signaling Selloff

This VIX Weekly chart highlights our expectations with regards future VIX activity and the initiation of the VIX SPIKE that will coincide with our expectations of a price collapse in the US stock market.  We believe the VIX level will continue to move moderately higher over the next two to three weeks before the August 19 date – possibly as high as 16 to 18.  We believe the VIX will begin the spike move from levels near 14 to 16 (just before August 19).

Transportation Index Underperforming = Bear Market

This TRAN weekly chart clearly shows the Pennant formation (BLUE LINES) and the critical price support channel (Upward sloping RED LINE) that we believe are critical to the future outcome of this breakdown price move setup happening on August 19, 2019.

First, the price must attempt to reach the Apex of the Pennant formation, then attempt a breakout/breakdown move.  We believe the breakdown move is the higher probability outcome of this Pennant formation based on technical and price pattern details.

Once the breakdown move begins, price support near the price channel (RED LINE) will become critical as a future support level.  If that level is broken, then we believe the TRAN may attempt to fall to levels near the middle of the Standard Deviation price channel range – near $4000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average At Inflection Point

This DIA Weekly chart shows a similar price pattern, although the Pennant formation is a bit harder to see.  The Pennant formation on this DIA chart is set up across the Double Top price level, near $269.50, and the upward sloping price channel line (RED LINE).  The 2018 deep price low sets up “leg 1” and we believe we have completed “leg 4” of this Pennant formation already.  This leads us to believe the Double Top formation in conjunction with our other research components suggests the markets are currently setting up for a sideways/rounded top formation over the next 20 to 30+ days before beginning a moderate breakdown price move headed into August 19, 2019.

We believe there is a strong possibility that the key psychological levels ($300 SPY, $3000 ES and $30k INDU) are likely to be breached throughout this Q2 earnings season.  We believe that key psychological price level may be the “trigger point” for an immediate price reversal and the beginning of the setup for our expected August 19 price collapse.

Trend and Trading Conclusion:

We urge traders to understand the risks that are currently prevalent in the markets as prices continue to trade near all-time highs.  Our suggestion would be to pull 40% to 60% off the top right now (or at least before early August) in preparation for this next price rotation.

Watch the US Dollar, Gold, Oil and the Transportation Index for signs of weakness that may erode price support before the August 19th date.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE GOLD BAR and enough trades to profit through the next metals
bull market and financial crisis!

SUBSCRIBE -> FREE GOLD or SILVER-> WINNING TRADE SIGNALS

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next?

On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts.  We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC).

Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today.  The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels.

May 21, 2019, Technical Analysis Post:
GLOBAL ECONOMIC TENSIONS TRANSLATE INTO OIL VOLATILITY

Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected.  This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets.  The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES.

After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019.  Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel.

The price rejection and subsequent collapse in price on July 2 represents a clear rotation from the $60 price level.  This failure to achieve a “higher high” price level ($60 is lower than the previous peak near $66) is a very clear indication that price MUST move lower in an attempt to establish a new “lower low” – near or below $50.60.  This is how the Fibonacci price theory works.

We believe the last level of support for Oil is currently near $54.50. If this level is breached, we should see a very clear and quick price move lower targeting the $50.60 to $52.50 level where historical support resides.  If that level fails, then a move to deeper historical support, near $42 if very likely.

Everything hinges on what Oil will do near the $54.50 level as the price continues to push lower from the recent peak near $60.  Technical traders should be prepared for a bit of volatility over the next few days, but we believe the $54.50 level will be breached and that oil prices will continue to fall back towards the previous low price level near $50.60.  If price fails to find support there, it really has only one target left to reach – that is the $42 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In a previous article, we’ve shown you when the bottom was in for oil and stocks using our simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points for SP500 and Crude Oil  – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move. Now a month later we are providing more insight about oils potential drop to $42 if support is broken.

If the price drops below $52 would also create selling pressure as the price will have fallen below the 200-period historical moving average level.  This technical condition would suggest price weakness to the masses and could result in additional selling pressure from traders exiting the oil market and potentially even short selling pressure.

Technical traders should have all eyes focused on the $54.50 price level right now.  That is the key price level for any future move in Crude Oil as it is oversold currently and near support. Either way, up or down, Crude Oil continues to be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in crude oil, but real estate, metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are even going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Next Bull and Bear Markets are Now Set Up

Sharing market analysis and my opinions every day is far from easy and sometimes I feel like a song on repeat. My focus and goal has always been to try to alert fellow traders and investors of what is unfolding now in the financial markets around the globe because it appears we are about to experience another financial life-changing event much like the 2000 stock market top, and the late 2007 bull market top which will play out over the next 24+ months

If you lost money during the last bear market then you need a new game plan to take advantage of falling prices and the solution is not just to by gold, silver, and miners. In fact, you could lose a lot buying and holding them over the next year if you are not careful. We all know what the precious metals sector did during the last equities bear market (they crashed 64% with the stock market before starting to rally).

2007 Bull Market Top – SP500 and XAU Gold Miners Index

From a technical analysis standpoint, we are still a long ways away from a confirmed bear market. We do need a see a rather larger drop to break the December low we saw in the SP500 index. But, each month more warning signs pop up to confirm we would be in a full-blown bear market b the end of 2019.

Miners Are Outperforming US Equities – Top Is Near!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 16% while the SP500 is up only 6%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

It’s a known fact that stock market prices lead earnings, news, and the economy. Stock prices start to flatten, chop sideways, and sell off typically 3-6 months or more before negative data starts to become daily headline news.

I have been predicting a top for form since early 2018 with the book I co-authored called “The Crash of 2019 and 2020 – How You Can Profit” only available to subscribers of the Wealth Building Newsletter.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand guide and charts. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the financial markets including commodities move in a wave like pattern and you want to own them and be to long when they are rising, and in cash or sell short (inverse ETF) when they are falling.

Everyone is excited about the gold, silver, and miners market here and now, but if everyone already owns them, and is buying more, that’s the signature herd/masses set up that we could see that market pullback hard here at any time.

The reality is, we just sold our gold and miners position because we expect a pullback/correction. Just like we played that last move in metals from the Sept bottom we called and exited near the top in mid-March. I got lots of flack for selling because everyone was SCREAMING BULL MARKET FOR METALS/MINERS (just like now) but what followed, yup a multi money correction that allowed us to take the next wave in this market which we just closed the positions.

The reality is, we never know which rally will be the TRUE breakout rally, and which selloff ill be the one that starts a new down trend, but we must stick with strict trading rules for long term consistent gains. We can reenter a position at any time with a click of a button and I don’t get worked up if I don’t get in at the exact bottom or out at the exact top because that is just called luck. The key is to get the middle low-risk gains, time and time again.

FUN FACTS
FIFTEEN 5% WINNERS = 107% ROI
JUST $500 PROFIT PER/MONTH = 30% ROI WITH $25K ANNUALLY
POSITION SIZING = TRADING SUCCESS

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected

We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.  Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.  In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.  Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted.  In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again.  At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows.  Guess what happened?  The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.

We’ve recently called the precious metals move perfectly with our originating research being done in October 2018.  We called the Oil downturn in 2018 as well as the rally starting near December 2018.  Now, we are going to share with you some incredible market insights and help you prepare for what will likely become the most frustrating next six months of trading for everyone.

Why is it going to be frustrating?  Because everyone has already made up their minds as to what they expect to happen in the markets and WHY.  We read a report today from an analyst that suggested he “moved into a defensive position and initiated positions in Inverse ETFs and Put Options”.  Probably a smart move if he timed it right.  What he’s going to do over the next 6 months will either make him a king or a pauper.

The fact is that the US stock market has initiated a very moderate downside price rotation recently and multiple levels of support must be breached before we could consider any of the recent downside pricing pressure as a “major trend reversal”.  We believe many of these analysts are hyperventilating with regards to this move and seeing what they want to see from it – THE BEAR MARKET.

At this time, we do not agree with this narrative.  Yes, the US stock market is under pricing pressure.  The US/China trade deal is far from completed and the new US/Mexico tariffs are sure to roil the markets. Europe has just completed EU elections and must continue to navigate the hard questions of future management and opportunity with a BREXIT hanging over everyone’s heads.  The Prime Minister of Malaysia is calling for a new “gold backed SE Asian currency” to help prevent the wild currency valuations as Malaysia saw in the mid-1990s.  The US Presidential election cycle is just 15 months away and it is sure to be a blood-bath in some ways.

Could it be the start of the bear market??  Maybe, but our research suggests otherwise.

Our research suggests there is still another chance that the US stock market could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again.  Be cautious about how we stated this…  “could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again” does not mean “rally beyond recent highs” or “another leg to the upside will take place”.  It means that we believe the current support will prompt a brief price rally back to “near all-time highs” before the end of August 2019.

This Weekly ES chart highlights the support levels we are watching and the peak zone near $2961.  We believe the current support levels will attempt to provide a floor for price above $2630 and will prompt an upside price channel that will likely see price climb higher from recent lows.

The bottom line here for the broad stock market is that we should see bounce over the next couple weeks, then we follow the market higher with a big rally or short a collapse in price.

This chart is a little noisy with analysis and our custom indicator lines but it shows key analysis levels. The same type of setup is also taking place in the NQ – although we believe the NQ may have a bit further downside price risk than the ES or YM at the moment. We believe the support levels near $6800  and $6400 will act as a price floor and attempt to drive price moderately higher over the next 25 to 45 days.  We believe the NQ will come under increased price pressure because of a capital rotation away from risk in Technology and future risk factors.

The YM is setting up very similar to the ES.  Very clear support and the current price level is still relatively bullish compared to the two most recent bigger downside price moves.  The idea that analysts could call this “The Big One” with little to know price confirmation is very confusing.  We believe support above $23,400 will likely hold and price will begin a moderate upside price move (within a channel/pennant formation) over the next 25 to 40+ days in the YM.

One very clear exception to this analysis would be a very clear price breakdown below the lowest support level while attempting to target the December 2018 lows.  Should this happen over the next 30 to 60 days without any sign of the support rotation and upward price channel we are expecting, then we would consider this analysis to have failed and we could be looking at a much bigger downside price move in the US stock markets.  At this point, we don’t believe this will happen UNLESS some massive US or foreign crisis event unfolds over the next 30 to 60+ days.

We believe a shift in the “Capital Shift” process we have been discussing for the past 2+ years is still taking place.  This is a “risk off” move prompted by a renewed FEAR level and currency price trends over the past 6+ months.

This currency chart clearly shows everyone is selling their currency and moving into what they believe is the safest currency which is the USD.

We believe Capital Shift process will go through a weakening process while fear drives investors out of high performing assets. This process will likely shift back towards searching for undervalued US equities as global investors seek new opportunities after these support levels prompt a base.  The hunt to find returns will eventually lead everyone back into the US stock market as there is too much turmoil in the global markets currently.

If you missed this move, sit back and wait for these support levels to settle and then look for new trade opportunities.  There will be lots of time to get into the BIG SHORT TRADE when it finally sets up and confirms.

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND 
TRADE WHAT MATTERS – PRICE ACTION! 
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.