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ES Must Hold Above 2800 Or The Selling Will Intensify

First off, we were so happy to hear from all of our followers over the weekend and early today regarding their support for our incredible market predictions – specifically the call about the August 19th breakdown prediction.  We stuck to our guns believing in our predictive modeling systems and our research team.  We knew it would be just a matter of time before the weakness our models were showing us to actualize in a real price breakdown.  We want to thank all of you who wrote to us and thanked us and our team for their hard work and dedication.

Now, we’ll highlight some recent events in the ES chart (S&P500 E-Mini Futures) and how it related to the bigger picture in the markets.

Before we get into the details of the market recovery today, we want all of you to understand that is natural for the markets to move in rotational waves as price establishes new highs or lows.  In fact, it is essential and healthy for the markets to do this.  When the markets move in an unnatural way by trending excessively over short periods of time, it reflects an imbalance in the fundamentals of the markets or the core elements of supply/demand economics.  When the bottom falls out of a market, for example, it is usually because of some type of external news item or some other type of external factor/event.  The markets themselves naturally have a way of processing expectations and price value through the process of buying and selling in an open market.

Therefore, as we continue this research post, please understand that any further price breakdown will likely become a process of price waves or rotations over the next few days and weeks that continue to break the most recent series of upward sloping highs and lows (from January 2019 till July 2019). But first, be sure to opt-in to our free stock market forecast newsletter.

Let’s get started with the analysis.

240 Minute ES Chart Highlights

This first 240 minute ES chart highlights the intraday rotational price structure and how the Fibonacci price modeling system is currently identifying 2850 to 2897 as a key Support/Resistance level for the price.  Initially, as the breakdown in price happened on Friday and late Sunday, price blew past the projected Fibonacci target levels.  This can sometimes happen in extended trending or when outside news drives market price one direction or another.  The basics of Fibonacci price theory are that price will attempt to revert to within the last trending range before attempting to establish a new price highs or new price low.  So with each subsequent higher or lower move within a trend, the price will attempt to revert within that range before attempting another trend/move.

In this case, the 2850 to 2897 level is the target level identified by the Fibonacci Target Levels that we want to watch.  This is where the price will likely initiate the next big move from and we believe it will be to the downside.

Daily Chart Highlights

This Daily chart highlights the 2887 level for both the LONG and SHORT Fibonacci Trigger Price Level.  The one thing we want you to take away from this research article is how the levels all seem to align with one another.  This Daily chart is suggesting levels that align with the 240-minute chart.  This is very important and provides consistency across multiple intervals for the Fibonacci system.

At this point 2887 is critical for price.  Any measure to stay above this level would provide greater confidence that some type of price recovery may form in the future.  Any failure to stay above this level would mean the breakdown should continue lower.

The last item we want to highlight on this Daily chart is the 2817 level (the BLUE projected Fibonacci target level).  This aligns very closely with the data you’ll see on the next Weekly chart.  Pay attention to how these levels work together to pinpoint price structures.

Weekly ES chart

This Weekly ES chart shows the bigger Fibonacci price modeling system and the key levels we are watching on the longer-term charts.  Obviously, the 2790 to 2800 level is critical on this chart.  That is a price level that aligns with the BLUE Fibonacci downside target level and the past Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Level from June 2019.  It is very likely that this level will be the last level of defense for a price if the breakdown continues.  This weekly chart also highlights that we need to see price move below 2575 to qualify as a “new Bearish Trend” on this chart.   So we have a long way to go before we can really attempt to confirm a new longer-term Bearish trend is in place.

The way the Fibonacci modeling system address volatility can sometimes extend the range of the Trigger levels based on how price reacts and sets up.  In this case, because of the extended volatility in the markets and because of how the price has rotated recently, the Fibonacci price modeling system will not confirm a new bearish price trend until price moves below 2575.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This sets up a type of “ladder pricing event” in our future.  First, the 2887 level (from the Daily chart).  Then 2850 (from the 240-minute chart).  Then the 2795 to 2817 level.  After that – LOOK OUT BELOW.

Over the next few days and weeks, we’ll see how these levels are targeted and/or breached as the price continues to rotate.  We believe this downside rotation is just starting at this point and we have yet to really break below the 2728 lows from June 2019.  Price MUST break these levels if the true breakdown move we are expecting is going to take place.  Get ready for some really great trades – they are about to unload on all of us.

Check out these other exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing with our followers.

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As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart.

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months.  So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event.  Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect.  If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.

August 12, 2019: AUGUST 19 (CRAZY IVAN) EVENT ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY

August 7, 2019: OUR CUSTOM INDEX CHARTS SUGGEST THE MARKETS ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDE

July 30, 2019: AUGUST 19 PRICE PEAK PREDICTION IS CONFIRMED BY OUR ADL PREDICTIVE SYSTEM

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS

Originally, our research team identified July 2019 as a market top potential back in April/May 2019.  Later, our research team updated our analysis to include the August 19 breakdown date prediction based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and cycle analysis tools.  This became a critical event in the minds of our research team because it aligned with much of our other predictive research and aligned perfectly with what we were seeing in the charts as we neared the Summer.

The top prediction for July 2019 by our research team became true as we entered early August.  This confirmation of our research and prediction back in April/May helped to solidify our belief that our August 19th breakdown prediction would likely become valid as well.  Whenever we make a prediction many months in advance, one has to understand that we are using our predictive analysis tools to suggest what price “wants” to try to do in the future.  External events can alter the price level by many factors to create what we call a “price anomaly”.  When the external events and price predictive outcomes align as they have been doing over the past 4+ months, it lends quite a bit of credibility to our earlier predictive research.

In other words, we couldn’t be happier that our research team has been able to deliver incredible insight and analysis regarding the global markets and how the price will react over the past 4+ months.  This is something no other investment research firm on the planet is capable of doing with any degree of accuracy right now.  In fact, it is amazing to us that we’ll read some research post by a multi-national investment firm that may suggest something now that we’ve alerted our followers to 90 days earlier.

Now, onto some new details about the August 19th breakdown event…

First, be very cautious about investing in Cryptos throughout this event.  The initial move, if our research continues to play out, maybe an upside rally in BitCoin based on fear as the global markets start a breakdown process.  But we believe this move in Cryptos will be very short-lived as our current research suggests central banks, governments, and other institutions are getting ready to pounce on unregulated Crypto Currencies.  It is our belief that the breakdown event will possibly push Bitcoin higher on a “move to safety” rotation.  But once Bitcoin investors understand that governments and institutions are targeting these digital currency exchanges as criminal enterprises that threaten central banks and that there is no real safety in putting capital into a digital enterprise that can be shut down in minutes, we believe a rush to the exits will begin to take place.

We believe the shift to real physical assets will take place as a shift in asset valuations continues to take place.  We believe the downside risk in Bitcoin is currently at least 30 to 40% from current values.  Our initial downside target is a level near $5570 for Bitcoin with potential for price support near $7900.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights arrows that we drew in mid-July based on our expectations for future price rotation.  You can see that price, for the most part, followed our expectations and stayed within the Fibonacci price channel, near the lower price levels, while navigating the MAGENTA Fibonacci price amplitude arc (across the tops in price) as it moved towards our August 19th breakdown date.  It is critical to understand that price will attempt to either establish new price highs or new price lows based on Fibonacci price theory.  It is our belief that an upside rally towards the $11,300 level will be the “last rally” before a breakdown price trend pushes Bitcoin much lower.  This is likely the reaction of the “flight to safety” that we suggested earlier.

Weekly Bitcoin Chart

This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a broader picture of the same event and how it will likely play out in the near future.  Remember, initially, global investors will attempt to pike into anything that is quick, easy and efficient to protect against perceived capital risks.  We are certain that some investors will attempt to pile into Cryptos as the breakdown event starts.  The question is, will this transition of capital stay safe long enough for investors to capitalize on the move?  We don’t believe so based on our research.

If the price of Cryptos breaks through that Magenta Fibonacci price amplitude arc and initiates a move to new higher highs, then we’ll have to rethink our analysis.  But for right now, we are sticking to our belief that Cryptos will see an impulse rally that will quickly be followed by a breakdown event (likely the result of some government intervention or broader risk event).

Weekly S&P 500 Chart

This Weekly S&P 500 chart highlights what we believe is the most likely immediate price trend related to the October 2018 price decline.  If a downside price move does initiate as we expect because of the August 19 breakdown inflection point, we believe the S&P will target immediate support above $2400.  If you’ve followed any of our research, you already understand we believe the move dynamic economies on the planet are uniquely situated to actually benefit from this downside price event.  Therefore, we must understand that a “price exploration event”, like this, is a mechanism for investors to seek out true value levels for global assets.  All major price corrections are, in essence, a process of seeking out price levels where investors believe “true value” exists.

NASDAQ Weekly Transportation Index

The NASDAQ Transportation Index paints a very clear picture for our research team.  In fact, we find the TRAN particularly useful in our research of the global and US markets.  Even though we follow dozens of symbols and instruments, one of our key objectives is to attempt to validate our analysis across multiple instruments/charts and to attempt to identify faults in our expected outcomes.

The recent downside price move in the TRAN aligns perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation.  It is very likely that some news or pricing event over the next 7+ days pushes the TRAN below the RED price channel and downward towards the middle Standard Deviation level near $3900.  Once the TRAN breaks the RED support level, you should expect the US and global markets to also begin a broader move lower.

Ideally, the $3500 level should operate as a moderately hard price floor for this downside move.  $3900 would be considered the initial target of the downside price move whereas $3500 would be considered the initial “hard floor” support level.  Given these expectations, we have to consider the potential for a -15% to -25% initial downside price move in TRAN which would translate into a -18% to -35% downside price move in the S&P or NASDAQ.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In closing, August 19th is tomorrow (Monday).  This is where we’ll find out if our prediction will be viewed in the future as accurate or not.  The one thing about making public predictions for many months in advance is that you can’t go back and try to lie to your followers/readers.  Either it works out as we suggested or it does not.  We believe in the skills of our research team and predictive modeling systems.  We’ve seen how accurate they have been in the past and we believe we’ve delivered top-tier analysis to all of our followers and readers.  In fact, we know you can’t find anything like this type of research from other investment or research firms.

Over the next 10 to 30+ days, we’ll be able to look back at our August 19th prediction and say “we were right” or “we were wrong” – that is part of trading, folks.  You use your best tools to make an educated assessment of current and future expectations, then act on it (if you want).  We’ll follow up on the other side of August 19th with all of you.

Stay fluid as this event plays out, and most importantly, know that we don’t blindly trade on predictions, we use our short-term technical analysis and current market trends to enter and exit trades. The reality is, no matter if the markets roll over and crash or rocket higher, we will follow and trade with the market. The best thing about being technical traders is we don’t care which way the markets go. We just analyze and trade with the current market trend and make money in both directions and at the drop of a hat!

If you want to trade and invest without the stress of a pending market collapse or missing out on another extended rally to new highs then join my Wealth Building Newsletter today and copy my proven technical trading setups and trade with me!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Event Only A Few Days Away

Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019.  Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019.  In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.

It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data.  Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event.  It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.

Crazy Ivan Market Prediction for Stock Market and Volatility Article

Crazy Ivan Precious Metals Prediction Article

FANG Custom Index Weekly Chart

This FANG custom index weekly chart highlights how our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs work in alignment with price rotation and trends.  The theory behind this analysis is that price trends operate at a frequency and amplitude that we can map out – much like Tesla’s theory of Mechanical Resonance.

In our studies, we have learned how to identify relative price amplitude and frequency factors, then align these to price peaks and valleys.  The result is that we can see where hidden support and resistance channels form and where the price will potentially reach an “inflection point”.

Right now, this week and next on this FANG chart are likely to see increased volatility and the potential for a price breakdown as the current RED arc level sets up a massive resistance channel.

Custom Smart Cash Index Chart

Our custom Smart Cash Index chart is also highlighting an overall weakness in the US and global markets.  Once this chart breaks the lower price channel level, there is a very strong possibility that this index will break down toward the $134 level (or lower) as the global markets attempt to identify price support.  Overall lows could target the $111 level (seeing in 2016) if the breakdown is excessive.

Custom Volatility Index

This Custom Volatility Index is suggesting a deeper price low is setting up if the August 19 breakdown date acts as we suspect.  If the global markets break lower, then this Custom Volatility Index will be pushed into an extreme low territory (below 5.5) were a very deep bottom/base will setup (as we have seen before).  If it reaches levels below 4.0, then we should be very close to a very deep “V” type bottom.

The recovery from this base/bottom will likely be somewhat extended as the shift in the capital around the globe seeks out the best, safest locations and returns.  We believe this bottom will complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020 where the US markets will quickly gain acceptance as the location for global assets to avoid extended risks.

What Does All This Mean?

August 19 is only a few days away and we could see fireworks start in the global financial market place.

If our analysis is correct, we have only 4 to 7+ days before a major breakdown in price starts and we are yet unsure of the source or intensity of this event if there is one. Multiple analysis types are pointing to August as a key turn date and the market could fall by as much as 16-25% if there is a trigger event to spark the crisis.

What should you do? Well, being a pilot, quasi engineer, and technical trader using logic, rules, and processes to do things. I always wait for the price to confirm a new trend before taking action and entering a position. This is how we profited last week from the SP500 index falling. We traded the 2x bear fund SDS and locked in a quick profit.

The days are long gone where I would buy or sell stocks or trends based on tips and forecasts. That type of trading is really called legal gambling and the odds generally are not in your favor unless you tips are coming from insiders who actually know something.

Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.

Join Me And Trade With a Proven Strategy Today!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com