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What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? Part I

I have been going over the past data to attempt to identify future price targets and to help traders understand the true potential for the current precious metals price rally.  We’ve been sharing our data and research with you for many months are pleased to continue to share our predictive modeling system’s outputs and data.  Today, we wanted to play a bit of “what if” with the data in an attempt to relate just how explosive this move in precious metals may be over the next 6 to 12+ months.

Given our belief that precious metals prices will hold last weeks breakout to the upside and that Gold will rally in a parabolic price mode, we have attempted to identify how Silver would react given the price advance of Gold and the historic price ratio between Gold vs. Silver.

A number of pricing dynamics are taking place throughout the global stock markets and the historical measures of price relationship in advancing and declining markets could help us better understand the potential upside for Silver as the price of Gold continues to rally.  Here we go with our “what if” results.

Gold Fibonacci Price Amplitude – Weekly Chart

You may remember when we were calling for Gold to rally from $1200 to just above $1300 earlier this year?  We warned that once this move completed, a pause and pullback back below $1300 would set up a “Momentum Base” near April 21 that would become the launchpad for a much bigger move to the upside.  Now that we’ve seen this setup complete almost exactly as we predicted months in advance, we are waiting for the price to breach the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that is currently acting as resistance for Gold (see the chart below).

Once this level is broken, we believe Gold will rally to levels near or above $1560 and attempt to set up another “Momentum Base” somewhere between $1560 and $1640.  This price level represents a key price zone where multiple price inflection points align and where a larger Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc exists.  It is very likely that price will run into resistance near this zone – although it may become very brief price resistance.

Let’s assume that Gold could target various upside price levels in the near future and that Gold may attempt to reach levels just below $2000 before the end of this year (2019).  We’ve broken our research into price segments that will help us understand and breakdown Gold price advancement levels for future reference.  We’ve selected : $1650, 1750, 1850 & 1950 price levels for our research.

The Gold/Silver ratio chart, below, highlights the incredible rotation we’ve recently witnessed as Silver exploded higher last week.  Gold followed this move higher roughly 24 hours later.  The ratio between the price of Gold vs. Silver was at historical highs near 93 just a few days ago.  Currently, it is at 88.1 – after Silver rallied to help close the price gap between the two metals.  As you can also see from this chart, historical normal price levels are much closer to the 45 to 65 range.

What happens when this Gold/Silver ratio value becomes extended is that Gold holds more value than Silver.  Silver is a precious metal that is often overlooked because Gold is the primary focus of metals traders.  Yet, when a panic hits the global stock markets and Gold begins to move dramatically higher, Silver becomes an incredible opportunity as traders pile into Silver expecting it to close the price ratio gap quickly.

How big is this price disparity between Silver and Gold?  How much more will Silver potentially rally if Gold hits certain key upside price targets?  You should take a look at my article talking about the best metal to own for 2019 and beyond here. I compare gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Let’s find out and explore some really incredible opportunities.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Using special reference points, the current ratio level, and our expected ratio level, we can determine that for every drop of 5.0 points in the ratio level, the price of Silver should increase by 6.5% to 7.5% to the price of Gold.  Therefore, if Gold trades higher to $1500 and the ratio drops from 88 to 83, Silver should be trading at a level of $18.29.

We determined this ratio relationship process by identifying “anchor points” within the historic ratio chart, mapping out price levels that occur at these levels in advancing and declining metals markets, then mapping the corresponding ratio relationships so we could attempt to make these types of predictions.

Just wait to and see our PART II the shows what silver should do just reach a normal price ratio in tomorrows article!

I love to take on these types of challenges and to play “what if”.  The idea that we may find some unknown or unseen opportunity for traders and investors is very exciting.  We’ll share more of our research in Part II of this article and we’ll show you exactly what we expect to happen in the metals markets as the ratio continues to “revert”.

In short, the opportunities for skilled technical traders over the next 16+ months is incredible.  Huge price swings, incredible trends, big rotations and we could see nearly 300%+ profits to be had if you know what to trade and when.  These types of opportunities are perfect for skilled technical traders like us and we want to help you prepare for and trade these opportunities.

This bear market for stocks and the new bull market for metals has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil Breaks Down – Target $40

Our incredible ADL predictive modeling system predicted a moderate price anomaly on July 10th, 2019 in Crude Oil.  We wrote about this oil set up on July 10th. Within this article, we suggested that Crude Oil would rotate to levels near $47~$48 rather quickly, then find some moderate support in December and January where support is likely to be found near $45 to $50. After that, the price of Oil should weaken dramatically where price could fall to levels below $30 ppb on extreme price weakness.

We are writing to you today to suggest that Oil prices may attempt to find very brief support near $55.25 as this level represents a key price trigger level which acts as support/resistance.  After such a big downside move for the week, it is our opinion that Oil will briefly hold near this $55.25 level as oil tries to hold support for a couple of days.

We believe the selling may abate or weaken slightly early next week as earnings continue to hit the news cycle and future expectations are adjusted based on this data.  Quite a bit of data will be released next week with the worlds biggest firms releasing Q2 data and Q3 expectations.  We believe this news/data will result in a brief pause in the decline of oil prices and allow traders to set up for the next move lower.

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights the downside price action this week as oil collapsed from the $60 upside target called from our early June oil video forecast. The chart below also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool that is currently suggesting support will be found just above $51 ppb – which is aligned with the previous price bottom in early June 2019.  Mild resistance is also found near $56.70 (the BLUE projected price level).  This level will likely act as a “congestion range” as price rotates and attempts another downside leg.

This Weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the bigger picture for oil.  The recent breakdown in price has just crossed the Bearish Fibonacci trigger level (RED LINE near $55.20) and this breach suggests the downside price move may just be starting. Ultimate downside targets near $40 to $44 are where we believe the price will find support over the next 30 to 60+ days.  Beyond these levels, the price may continue much lower and eventually breach the sub $30 level in Q1 or Q2 of 2020, which would likely be a strong cause of the pending bear market.

Concluding Thoughts:

Any deep downside price move like this in Crude Oil would suggest that economic weakness and supply/demand issues are the root causes of a Crude Oil price collapse.

If the downside move continues as we are suggesting, many foreign nations will come under extreme economic pressures and currency levels/support could become threatened as the foundation for many oil-based economies will begin to crumble.  This could create an extreme debt/credit issue for many nations throughout the planet and could push the US Dollar well above $100.  The implications for extended trends and trades is incredible when you consider the scope of the economic shift that will take place if Crude Oil does begin trading below $30 in early 2020.

$30-$40 crude oil could spark or further deeping the pending bear market which has been a long time coming. Almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start so get ready. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.  The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Gold and US Stock Election and Decade Cycles

Recently I have been trying to show all the different angles to look at and analyze the US stock market and the precious metals sector. At the end of this report, I will share with you several other crucial angles and charts you must see for our self.  There are several very intriguing things unfolding right now which are interconnected in ways you may not have known.

Gold Years and Seasonality

Let’s start off with the price of gold and what it typically does each month during the presidential election year, which is this year 2019. The graph below shows the average price movement during the elections since 1971 and I think the chart speaks for its self.

What I get from this, is that investors become uncertain with the future and accumulate gold. This years election I feel is much like a Midterm election. With recent past presidents, they have been in for two terms so this election, in my opinion, is much like a Midterm election if Trump stays in power.

This next chart is the seasonality of gold. Meaning which direction gold trades during each month on average every year. This second chart along with the election chart above both show gold tends to pull back the second half of July, so don’t be alarmed if it happens.

Dow Jones Election Years

The US stock market in general, but in this case, I’m using the Dow Jones industrial average you can see where stock prices should move during the rest of this year as we go into the November election.

Dow Jones Decade Cycle

As you may or may not know, I have a thing with cycles when it comes to trading. Yes, it seems a little far fetched and can be perceived as Voodoo to some people but statistics don’t lie and I have made an incredible living from the financial markets incorporating cycles in all my trades from long term investing right down to my 30-minute trading charts.

The website SeasonalCharts.com shares this really interesting information and chart about the decade cycle and I want to share it with you here:

“The stock market appears to follow a 10-year cycle. During the first half of the decade, equity prices on average do not increase, however in the second half they clearly do. In addition, U.S. equities have demonstrated very good performance in years ending with the number 5 (e.g. 1995 or 2005). Their average profit amounted to 30 %. That equals 40% of the average profit for the entire decade! 

The decade-cycle chart of the Dow Jones shows the average 10-year trend of the index over the last more than 100 years.”

As you can see from those four graphs the odds are pointing towards a market top in the US stock market based on statistics and long-term cycles. And for gold to become the investment of choice and rally the second half of this year.

Below are several other eye-opening charts about gold and US equities. You should take a quick look at each because what I’m sharing in this post and links below is more than enough to know where the markets are headed next. No need to look anywhere else and I think you will agree after you review each section. My analysis is logical, proven, and easy to understand the big picture trends no matter if you are a total newbie to the trading and the financial markets.

Top 5 Important Gold And Stock Market Analysis Posts

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

On June 17th I showed my chart of the transportation index forming a double top formation. It’s known that the transportation index leads the broad stock market and if the transports are breaking down then we must expect the bear market is close. I then went on to talk about the precious metals breakout with silver and silver miners leading the way. Gold miners broke out as well while gold continued to hold its bullish formation. See Transportation index double top.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, this years election I feel is much like a Midterm election in terms of what stocks and gold should do. With recent past presidents, they have been in for two terms so this election, in my opinion, is much like a Midterm election if Trump stays in power. you should now have a firm grasp of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next few months and beyond. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Topping Signals

Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12.  Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level.  In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.

The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity.  If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity.  If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.

This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.

Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price.  We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.

MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.

Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is today within this cycle:  https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/

TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping

Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next! 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the
next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Financial Crisis Bear Market Is Scary Close

Everyone knows something bad is brewing not just in the USA but globally within the financial systems. Most countries are bankrupt, and almost all currencies have been losing value for the past year. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs and getting creative with how they borrow, lend, create, and steal money in hopes the world does not catch on to just how corrupt and bad things really are.

It’s just a matter of time before we see another financial market meltdown and what I show you here today gives you an idea of just how close we could be to a market collapse.

The financial markets rarely repeat the same type of crisis, but most crisis’ cause the stock market to sell off and crash in the same way. Human nature and emotions do not change, and because traders and investors drive the price action of stocks we are able to profit from bear markets.

In fact, bear markets can be life-changing in a good way for those who know how to trade these market conditions. Because stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise, you can generate the same amount of returns someone who invested at the beginning of a 10-year bull market and sold at the top, but you can do this in 8-12 months because of how quickly prices fall.

Three Leading Sectors To Watch
Transports, Industrials, Small-Cap Stocks

The transportation sector refers to the transportation of goods or customers using major and regional airlines, railroads, shipping firms, ocean freight haulers, trucking, etc… It is these companies that see a slow down in the economy before almost everyone else as less shipping is required when sales slow or the economy is tightening using less food, fuel, or buying things in general.

The second sector is industrials. This works much like the transportation sector.

Last but not least is the Russell 2ooo small-cap stock index. These small and volatile stocks are the first to show signs that traders and investors are tightening their risk-reward ratios because they feel the stock market is overpriced and that a bear market could be near, and the last type of stock you want to own during a bear market are small-cap stocks.

2016 – 2019 Custom Chart of Three Sectors
Trans (IYT) + Industrials (XLI) + Russell (IWM) / 3

The chart below shows the recent and current day price action of these three leading sectors. Notice the long multi-year rally into the high of 2018 followed by the sharp distribution selling that warns the big money players unloaded their positions in these leading and leveraged sectors.

The 2019 rally has been strong but when you look at the big picture, the price is far from its 2018 highs and the price pattern is bearish (it points to lower prices) from a technical analysis standpoint.


2004 – 2008 Custom Chart of Three Sectors

The last bull market looks nearly identical in terms of the run-up in price, the top in 2007, and the distribution sell-off in these sectors. The 2008 rally was strong as well, but far from the 2007 highs as well.

What I want you to notice is the fact that these charts have moved nearly the same. Just like I mentioned earlier how bear markets price patterns repeat, so do bull market price patterns. The 2009 price action and 2019 price action are nearly identical and when you see the next chart you will see why the financial market is scary close to the next crisis/bear market.


2009 Market Crash Custom Chart
Trans (IYT) + Industrials (XLI) + Russell (IWM) / 3

Bases on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading meaning when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already completed.


Eye Opening Gold Miners Charts and Analysis from 2008-09

There are several other really intriguing things happening that further confirm this analysis like how gold miners are outperforming US stocks, the gold : silver ratio above 85, the presidential cycle, the decade cycle and many more. It was actually all these other things that made me review these leading sectors here today. I’ll touch on these other topics in the next few articles later this week

The chart below shows you what the stock market and gold miners did just before the bull market topped and what they did after. Be aware, if you’re a gold bug you may not like this chart but you can’t argue with the truth of what miners did during the bear market and other bear markets for that matter.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is as of today within this cyclehttps://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/


Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for Part II 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the
next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping

With earnings data starting to hit the markets and recent news that China’s economic activity levels shrank to levels not seen in nearly 30 years, we believe our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is showing us a target level in the NASDAQ (NQ) that will likely be reached within the next 7 to 10 days.  We believe once this target level is reached, the US stock market will immediately begin an extended topping formation with sideways price action and increased volatility) which will culminate in our August 19, 2019 setup date for a much deeper price correction.

At this time, traders should start to prepare for this topping event and prepare for price resistance to be found as the NQ nears this 8031 level – only 60 pts away.  If you are sitting on a bunch of profitable long trades, our suggestion would be to scale back 50% to 60% of these open positions and prepare for a top setup to begin within 7 to 10 days.  The volatility we expect to see over the next 30 days will likely be 2x or 3x current levels.

Nasdaq Daily Chart

This Daily NQ chart highlights the Fib Target Resistance level and shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s current downside price targets (7760, 7400 and 7265).  These downside price target will change as the new price peak is established near the 8031 price level.

Nasdaq Weekly Chart

This NQ weekly chart highlights the same suggested resistance level (the YELLOW LINE drawn near the recent highs) and highlights deeper Weekly Fibonacci downside price targets near 6950, 6000 and 5950.

Our expectations are that economic weakness and price rotation will set up and begin a downside price move on or near August 19, 2019, based on our cycle research.  We believe this move will initially target a -6 to -9% downside price move, then extend into a much deeper price decline ending near the start of 2020 or within Q1 of 2020.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Conclusion:

Our researchers believe traders should be actively scaling back existing long positions in preparation for this top setup.  Key psychological levels have already been reached and the minute the NQ breaks above 8000, the key Fibonacci target level and the key psychological level (8000) become critical elements for the market top formation.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT WITH US

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Earnings may surprise the stock market – Watch Out!

I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years.  We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.

Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here

This week I will share a report showing some really interesting charts rm a very different point of view that signal a larger correction is coming based on some leading sectors and proprietary analysis. You can get this report by joining my free newsletter located at the bottom of my Current Index Trade Signal Page here.

Earning Season Expectations For This Week

Early this week, July 15 through July 19, a total of 173 companies will be reporting earnings – including a number of very large firms such as Bank Of America (BAC), Alcoa (AA), US Bancorp (USB), IBM, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), E-Bay (EBAY), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), United Airlines (UAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) and others.  The mix of reporting firms this week includes financial, consumer, basic materials, healthcare, home builders and many others.

If anything has disrupted these industries over the past 3+ months it has been the shock to the markets related to the October 2018 to December 2018 US stock market price collapse and the continuing trade wars/issues with China.  It is our opinion that these trade wars and pricing disruptions have resulted in a much more difficult environment for certain US and foreign nations to achieve Q2 expectations.  Thus, we are planning for a few interesting surprises over the next 10 to 15+ days.

Next week, July 22 through July 26, a total of 659 companies will be reporting earnings. We believe the bulk of these earnings reports will provide increased US and global market price volatility and could actually present a number of surprise results (both positive and negative).

The Nasdaq website reported this article on June 17, 2019, which we found interesting.

Expectations for Q2 2019, and to be quite honest – the rest of 2019, is overall quite negative from this article.  We believe the US markets will still be the top-performing global stock market because of the strength of the US economy and dynamic foundation of growth and opportunity going forward 2 to 4+ years.  But we are very concerned that the second half of 2019 stock market correction is about to hit and shock traders with a -15% to -20% (or more) price collapse initiated by the recent psychological price levels being breached and the Q2 earnings data that could shock the global markets.

From the Nasdaq article, Zacks Sector analysis for Q2 vs. Q1 2019 shows concern in a number of sectors while Consumer Discretionary and Retail/Wholesale shows Revenues increase and Margins fall.  Overall, it is quite distressing to see these expectations when one considers the strong economic data being released recently.

(Source)

The computer and technology sector seems uniquely poised for a very rough year based on Zachs expectations.  Overall, Q1 2019 earnings expectations were -6.7%, Q2 2019 earnings expectations are -11.5% and Q3 earnings expectations are -11.5%.  This does not look like a very positive set of data for the rest of this year and we believe this is where the real risk of a US stock market price collapse resides.

(Source)

Our Index Prediction Looking Forward

Months ago, we warned that a July 2019 market top is setting up and that we believed the US stock market would rotate much lower after a peak in July setup.  About 45 days ago, we adjusted our expectations to suggest that this top would likely form in August or early September based on our predictive modeling system output and our cycle tools.  We’ve honed the date down to August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 days) as the date that we believe the US stock market will TOP and/or initiate a new downside price move from this date.

You can see from the chart, below, that we believe the current price top may actually be near the highest point reached over the next 30+ days.  We believe earnings data will change the dynamics of price activity and increase volatility over the next 2 to 3 weeks.  Setting up a sideways Pennant price formation as the global markets and investors digest this new economic data.  Ultimately, a price breakdown is likely (a price revaluation event) that will allow for continued upside price growth in the future.

This Daily DJI chart highlights our expectations and highlights our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that suggest the true price top formation will happen sometime near August 19, 2019.  We believe this date is critical and that price could begin a very quick and dramatic downside price move near this date based on the data we are expecting to see from Q2 earnings.

In previous articles, we’ve suggested a simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move.

Earnings and Prediction Conclusion:

We urge traders to plan and prepare for this potential setup by reducing risk in long positions and preparing for a potential downside price move that could be related to global market concerns, Q2 earnings data and continued global trade/economic issues.

Overall, once this price revaluation event is completed, much like the event in Oct~Dec 2018 and the event in May 2019, the US stock market will very likely resume the upward price bias/trend and continue to attempt to establish new all-time price highs into 2020 and beyond.

Price rotations, like the one we are suggesting, may happen after August 19, 2019, are very healthy for the markets.  These types of moves allow price to establish support and resistance levels, revalue assets, shake out certain biases and provide for future price moves/trends.

Be prepared.  The data may result in a very big increase in volatility over the next 10~15+ days and this could result in a very dramatic price correction setting up as we’ve suggested.  Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these bigger market moves and find incredible trading opportunities as these big moves take place.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks

Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months.  Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.

Post 1: NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP

Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM

Our research team now believes that August 19 (+/- 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for.  Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels.  We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.

Volatility Index Signaling Selloff

This VIX Weekly chart highlights our expectations with regards future VIX activity and the initiation of the VIX SPIKE that will coincide with our expectations of a price collapse in the US stock market.  We believe the VIX level will continue to move moderately higher over the next two to three weeks before the August 19 date – possibly as high as 16 to 18.  We believe the VIX will begin the spike move from levels near 14 to 16 (just before August 19).

Transportation Index Underperforming = Bear Market

This TRAN weekly chart clearly shows the Pennant formation (BLUE LINES) and the critical price support channel (Upward sloping RED LINE) that we believe are critical to the future outcome of this breakdown price move setup happening on August 19, 2019.

First, the price must attempt to reach the Apex of the Pennant formation, then attempt a breakout/breakdown move.  We believe the breakdown move is the higher probability outcome of this Pennant formation based on technical and price pattern details.

Once the breakdown move begins, price support near the price channel (RED LINE) will become critical as a future support level.  If that level is broken, then we believe the TRAN may attempt to fall to levels near the middle of the Standard Deviation price channel range – near $4000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average At Inflection Point

This DIA Weekly chart shows a similar price pattern, although the Pennant formation is a bit harder to see.  The Pennant formation on this DIA chart is set up across the Double Top price level, near $269.50, and the upward sloping price channel line (RED LINE).  The 2018 deep price low sets up “leg 1” and we believe we have completed “leg 4” of this Pennant formation already.  This leads us to believe the Double Top formation in conjunction with our other research components suggests the markets are currently setting up for a sideways/rounded top formation over the next 20 to 30+ days before beginning a moderate breakdown price move headed into August 19, 2019.

We believe there is a strong possibility that the key psychological levels ($300 SPY, $3000 ES and $30k INDU) are likely to be breached throughout this Q2 earnings season.  We believe that key psychological price level may be the “trigger point” for an immediate price reversal and the beginning of the setup for our expected August 19 price collapse.

Trend and Trading Conclusion:

We urge traders to understand the risks that are currently prevalent in the markets as prices continue to trade near all-time highs.  Our suggestion would be to pull 40% to 60% off the top right now (or at least before early August) in preparation for this next price rotation.

Watch the US Dollar, Gold, Oil and the Transportation Index for signs of weakness that may erode price support before the August 19th date.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

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I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Right on the Gold Bull Market

 


Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio