Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime. It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off. After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it. What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US. It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level. After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210. This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.
Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now
The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”
When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013. This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors. The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now. The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels. More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did). But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?
US 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average). We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The global markets are setting up for some type of event. Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020. Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting.
Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well? As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market? Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend?
In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years. We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now.
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
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Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies. The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital. In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.
Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe. We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions. We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.
We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :
Aug 14, 2019:GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING
Throughout our research, we referenced a number of current articles to determine our own outcomes and expectations. Some of the articles we used as reference are listed below.
Sources for some of our research:
Each of these resources helped to create a bigger picture of what we believe will likely happen and how the process may unfold. We’ll start by attempting to understand the core elements of the negative yield perspective and how/when it may change.
Negative yields are a result of expected economic malaise rooted in the understanding that GDP growth and economic output are relatively flat and not expected to rise. It comes down to the fact that if investors identified true growth opportunities in the major global economies, the yields for the debt instruments would reflect investor optimism (resulting in higher yields). Thus, the core element of the current global economic malaise is that the planet is transitioning from a very fragile 19th-century economic model into something new – we call it the 21st-century economic model.
This process will likely take an additional 10+ years to really begin to complete and may require many false starts as the world begins to understand exactly what is required to make this transition. Debt, as a process of engaging in economic activity, is something that is essential for some level of inflation, income, and the creation of future growth. Debt becomes a major issue when growth declines over extended periods of time resulting in a default risk for some nations/countries. Yet, as the human population continues to expand and global central banks continue to attempt to find the spark that will launch the new economic growth model, debt is essential to avoid economic contraction.
As we’ve hinted to, above, we believe the true answer is the transition away from 19th century economic structures that have resulted in massive risk factors (like unfunded pensions, unfunded state, and federal liabilities and massive global bank, investment banking and industrial level economic “black holes”) and to move towards true new world economic model. What that looks like is something we are considering at the moment and have a few ideas of.
Currently, there are a few new industries that show promise across the globe in terms of the new 21st-century economy and fledgling new industries.
_ Cannabis industry
_ Human Care Services Industry
_ Alternate housing Solutions
_ Eco-Sustainability Solutions
_ Fintech Wealth Creation Solutions
_ Social/Infrastructure Restoration Solutions
We believe the next 10+ years will become very fluid as traditional economic models are replaced with newer, more alternative, types of economic solutions that spark real growth industries and opportunities. We hope this process of transition initiates fairly quickly before any extended failure process takes place to start the reduction of capacity and resources that will be required for the rebuilding of the new 21st-century economy. Time will tell.
What this means for the rest of us is that we need to stay very focused on the fact that transitional asset shifts are very likely over the next 10+ years. The only time in history that we believe was similar to the current global economic environment was shortly after WWII. Global debts had skyrocketed and economic expectations throughout the planet were mild at best. Germany and most of Europe was beginning a rebuilding process while most of SE Asia and Japan were also attempting to rebuild and restructure after a brutal series of global wars. Much of the outside world was still in some form of an undeveloped economic structure at that time. For most of the developed world, the process of rebuilding and identifying real economic growth came nearly 20 years after the end of WWII – near the late 1950s and early 1960s as a type of Renaissance Era.
Given today’s world and how quickly things progress, we believe the process may take about 7 to 14 years to complete this time – depending on how quickly we are able to transition the global away from risks and systematic failures that are a result of clinging to failed 19th-century components.
It is our opinion that wild price rotations in a variety of global assets will plague the global markets over the next 7+ years as pools of capital are moved into and out of opportunities for returns and gains. We believe all of the world’s global markets are at risk for these very volatile rotations in price levels and that individual segments of the global markets will become targets for price declines and advances as capital attempts to force a “price discovery” process that seeks to identify true price values.
The process of true price discovery is convoluted with the steps of shaking off old expectations, risks, liabilities, falsehoods, and processes while attempting to identify real future value and executing the steps to transition these resources into renewed future expectations. It is almost like tearing down a structure in order to build something better and more efficient from the usable pieces of the old structure.
Our opinion is that skilled technical traders need to stay very fluid right now and to understand that broader risk factors are at play throughout the globe. Every major and minor economy on the planet will likely feel some aspect of the transition that is taking place within the global economy. We’ve highlighted a few charts, below, to show variations of risk as related to the trends that have taken place over the past 8+ years. Two of these charts shows a Pitchfork type of price channel. Once price breaks below these price channels, we enter a new territory of downward price trends that will begin the price discovery process.
This chart of the German DAX suggests the lower price trend channel is currently near $9300. As time progresses, that channel continues to rise. We would expect the $10,000 level to be a critical psychological level going forward.
This chart of the FSTE 100 shows a similar pattern where the lower price channel is near $5450 currently. As we progress further in time, that level continues to rise. We would suggest the $6000 will become critical for price support in the FTSE going forward.
The SPY sets up a similar pattern but shows more of our cycle and other research elements. The lower BLUE price channel, near $240, is our current price channel providing longer-term support. Below that level, we would fall back to the 2016 lows near $209.40.
Pay attention to what happens in the global markets over the next 6 to 18 months. The US Presidential election, Brexit and a host of other global issues are still playing out. We believe we are just starting this transition process and we believe now is the time for all skilled technical traders to fully understand that risks, price rotation, and true price discovery are very likely outcomes that may drive very wild price moves for many years into the future.
We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :
Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, sit back and think about all the opportunities that will be created over the next 7+ years if you are skilled enough to trade these massive price swings. Think about how the world will transition away from risk factors that continue to plague our future and towards something that will usher in a 50+ year run of opportunity and gains. If you are young enough to enjoy this run, now is the time you will want to find a solid team of people that can help you navigate this process and find success.
We are only halfway into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.
We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures. This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/70.png895572adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-19 09:44:242019-08-19 09:44:24Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership
Good morning, Lots of great analysis including Bitcoin today.
Executive Summary:
– Stocks set to gap higher and at short-term resistance. We will see if sellers jump back into the market and drive prices lower to fill the gap. Its Friday so if we have a weak close in price near the lows then Monday could be another huge sell-off.
– Bonds are trading a major long term resistance trend channel on the monthly chart. I would expect bonds to stall and pullback over the next few months. The video shows this very clearly.
– Metals are giving mixed signals and gold hit our key price target and resistance area yesterday for a quick 22% profit.
– Oil and natural gas are still in downtrends but not giving much insight at this time.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/TTT-VIDEO-LOGO.png480640adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-16 11:53:572019-08-16 11:53:57Today’s Stock, Metal, and Energy Forecasts – Aug 16 2019
As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets. It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance. In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).
In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals. Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure. Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming. Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).
If our analysis is correct, the peak that ends Wave 1 could be well above $2000 for Gold and well above $24 to $28 for Silver. Then, of course, we’ll set up for a corrective Wave #2 before another, BIGGER, upside wave #3 sets up in precious metals.
Taking a look at this Weekly Silver chart, you may be able to see the waves as we see them.
_ The upside price move from Dec 14, 2015, to July 4, 2016 sets up the initial upside Wave 1 leg.
_ The low in November 2018 sets up the end of corrective wave B from the initial bottom on December 14, 2015.
_ This setup suggests we are currently starting a Wave 3 upside move which is usually 1.5x larger (or more) than Wave 1.
_ Keep in mind that we believe all of these “minor wave” formations are part of a much larger 5 wave structure that is setting up.
As you look at the Fibonacci diagram, above, remember that within each of those waves (1 through 5), a typical complex price wave formation (1, 3, 5, or other more complex wave formation) will set up to complete the broader wave formation. Therefore, as you review the chart below, keep in mind that we believe everything originating from the bottom on December 14, 2015, till now is still part of the WAVE 1 formation on that Elliot Wave chart. We are just getting started with this move, folks.
Silver Weekly Chart with Wave 1
The YELLOW arrows we’ve drawn on this Silver chart are our expectations for Silver over the next 6+ weeks and will potentially complete the initial upside minor wave 3 formation/ Leg 1. We do understand that Elliot Wave counting can be difficult to understand, but please allow use to preface this research by suggesting that every larger wave consists of smaller waves. And those smaller waves, consist of sets of even smaller waves. And so it continues all the way down to sub-one-minute charts. The point we’re trying to make is that the $21 endpoint on this chart is very likely just the end of Wave 1, subwave 3, impulse move C which may target a total of D moves before reaching the end of subwave 3. To put it in more simple terms, we are only about 20% into this upside move right now based on our expectations.
Why is the move in precious metals so important for our August 19 breakdown date prediction? Because we would expect precious metals to begin a massive price rally if the global stock markets were expecting some type of major downside rotational event. A more into metals is a safety play for global investors. If something is happening in the markets and fear becomes more evident, then precious metals should start to rally. This sets up an expectation that some type of price revaluation event is likely to take place in the near future.
Thus, the upside price moves in Gold and Silver align perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation. The key to this, in our opinion, is that Silver has really started to skyrocket on large volume. This creates “confluence” in the metals group that fear is now driving investors into the lesser Silver market in preparation for a price reversion move soon.
Weekly Transportation Index chart
This Transportation Index chart highlights the fact that investors believe the future 3 to 6 months in the global economy will be moderately slower and that transportation activity and revenues will likely continue to diminish. The Transportation Index is an excellent measure of future global economic expectations that can be used as a “general market indicator” for future expectations.
Dow Jones Weekly Chart
This YM Weekly chart highlights the key Fibonacci price trigger level that has setup near $26,170. This is the critical price level for the YM to actually generate a confirmed Bearish price trend (end of week closing bar price level) which may be the initial downside price trigger. As of the creation of this chart, the YM price was above this Fibonacci trigger level. But as of right now, the YM price is already below the Fibonacci trigger level and if the YM closes the week below this level, then we would have a new confirmed Bearish Fibonacci price trend.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The interesting fact behind all of this is that these predictions were made by our research team months before today. Our Gold prediction was initiated near October 5, 2018. Our August 19 breakdown date was initiated near May 2019 (originally as a July Topping pattern expectation and later revised to the August 19 breakdown date). All of these predictions were created using our proprietary price modeling, predictive analysis tools, and advanced cycle analysis tools.
We find it absolutely incredible that we are able to make these types of predictions many months into the future and watch the markets do exactly what we suggested would happen. Obviously, we hope you are finding value in our research posts and modeling systems as well?
If you have not already prepared for the August 19 breakdown date prediction, we would suggest that you consider how you would want to protect any open long positions at this time (headed into the weekend) and set up your portfolio for a broader market rotation and upside move in precious metals over the next 3+ months. It is not too late to take action to protect your assets – even weeks past August 19, you can still act to take advantage of these bigger price moves. We are simply urging you to plan and prepare for these moves as you read our research posts.
FORECASTED MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND STOCK INDEXES
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/60.png588975adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-16 09:43:022019-08-16 09:43:02PART II – Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next?
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions. Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.
It is our belief that capital is still doing what capital always does, seeking out the best opportunities for safety and returns. Right now, that location is easily found in only certain segments of the markets; volatility, precious metals, certain energy sectors, US Treasuries and CASH. The future events, including the massive rotational event that we believe is about to unfold in the global markets, will change the way capital is deployed for many years to come.
It is very likely that this rotation event will create incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders or subscribers to our trade signal newsletter over the next 12 to 36 months and will likely prompt a further shift towards the new 21st-century economic model that we believe will be the ultimate outcome.
Taking a brief look at our recent history highlights the fact that capital becomes fearful about 12 to 16 months before a major US election event. Additionally, certain other factors related to the global economy heighten this fear as US/China trade issues, global debt issues and economic output issues continue to plague the markets. The combination of these types of events set up a “perfect storm” type of economic cycle where skilled technical traders are just waiting for the impact event to hit before the markets begin a bigger rotational event.
These types of events, similar to the 2000 and 2008-09 market crash event, are a process where price rotates out of a normal range and attempts to explore lower price levels that act as price support. It is not uncommon for these types of events to happen, although the severity of these events is difficult to determine prior to their execution.
The US Fed and global central banks set up an easy money process over the past 9+ years that allowed for capital to be deployed as a process that has setup this current massive rotational event. At first, the intent was to support collapsing markets and institutions – we understand that. But the nature of capital is to always seek out suitable safety and returns, so capital did what is always does hunt out the best opportunities for profits. First, it rallied into the crashing real estate market and emerging markets – which had been crushed by the 2008-09 credit crisis event. Next, it piled into the Asian markets and healthcare/technology markets. At this time, it also started piling into the startup/VC markets throughout the world as well as certain commodities. The recovery seemed to have created a booming and cash-flush market for anyone with two dollars to rub together.
Then came the 2015-16 market contraction and the end of the US Fed QE processes. At this time, China realized the need to control capital outflows and the US/Global markets slowed to a crawl as the US Presidential election cycle ramped-up. It was just 12 months prior to this 2015-16 event that oil crashed from $114 to $46. Within 2015-16, Oil continued to crash to levels below $30. This was the equivalent of the blowout cycle for the global economy. Headed into the 2016 US elections, the global economy was running on only 5 of 8 cylinders and was limping along hoping to find some way out of this mess.
The November 2016 US elections were just what the global economy needed and everyone’s perceptions about the future changed almost overnight. I remember watching the price of Gold on election night; +$75 early in the evening as Clinton was expected to win, then it continued to fall back to +$0 fairly late in the evening, then it fell to -$75 as the news of a Trump win was solidified. This rotation equated to a nearly 10% rotation in less than 24 hours based on FEAR. Once fear was abated, global investors and capital went to work seeking out the safest environments and best returns – like normal.
This resurgence of capital into the markets set up of a new SOP (standard operating procedure) where capital began to be deployed in more risky environments and into broader and bigger investment structures. This is the SETUP I’m trying to highlight that was created by the US Fed and central banks. I don’t believe anyone thought, at that time in early 2017, that the current set of events would have transpired and I believe global governments, central banks, and global financial institutions thought, “Party on, dude! We’re back to 2010 all over again”. Boy, were they wrong.
This time, the global central banks, governments and state-run enterprises engaged in bigger and more complex credit/debt structures while attempting to run the same game they were running back in 2010 and 2011. The difference this time is that the US Fed started raising Fed Fund Rates and destroyed the US Dollar carry trade while putting increasing pressure on the global market, global debt and global trade. The continued rally of the US Dollar after the 2018 lows helped to solidify the advantages and risks in the markets. This upside rally in the US Dollar, after the 2014 to 2016 rally, really upset the balance of the global markets and setup an increasing pressure point for foreign markets.
It soon became very evident that risks in the foreign markets could be partially mitigated by investing in the US stock market and by moving capital away from risky currencies and into US Dollar based assets. Capital is always doing what it always does – seeking out the best environment for returns and protection from risk. Thus, we have the setup right now – only 15 months before the 2020 US Presidential elections. What happens now?
This setup is likely to prompt a rotation in the global markets as well as within the US stock market. It is very likely that a continued contraction in consumer and banking activity (think business, real estate, trade, commodities, and others) will prompt a contraction in global economics very similar to what happened in 2014~2016. This process will likely put extreme risk factors at play in some of the most fragile economies and state-run enterprises on the planet. Once the flooring begins to crack in some of these markets, we’ll see how this event will play out. Right now, our eye is watching Europe and Asia for early warning signs.
The US Fed will continue to manipulate the FFR levels in an attempt to help mitigate the risks associated with this contraction event. It is likely that the US Fed already sees what we see and it attempting to position themselves into a more responsive stance given the potential outcomes. Inadvertently, the US Fed and global central banks presented an offer that was too good for anyone to ignore – easy cash. What they didn’t expect is that the 2014 to 2019 rally in the US Dollar and US stock market would transition capital deployment within the global market in such a way that it has – setting up the current event cycle.
We believe a downside pricing event is very likely over the next 10 to 25+ days where the US stock market may fall 12 to 25%, targeting levels shown on this chart (or slightly lower) as this rotational event takes place. Ultimately, the US markets will recover much quicker than many foreign/global markets. Our estimates are that the recovery in the US markets will likely begin to take place near March or April 2020 and continue higher beyond this date.
This Custom Smart Cash Index chart highlights the type of capital shift activity we’ve been describing to our readers and followers. It is easy to see that capital moved out of risky investments within the downturns on this chart and into the most opportunistic equity markets within the uptrends on this chart. Remember, most opportunistic markets are sometimes outside of the scope of this Smart Cash index. For example, this chart does not relate strength in the Precious Metals markets or other commodities/currencies. All this chart is trying to highlight for followers is how capital is being deployed in viable global equity markets and when capital is exiting or entering these markets.
Given the current setup, we would expect a breakdown in this Smart Cash Index over the next 4+ months to set up a new lower price level establishing a base/bottom before attempting to move higher. We believe the 100 level, shown as historical support, is a proper target price level for this move initially.
Lastly, we believe capital is moving aggressively into the precious metals markets and we urge all skilled technical traders to pay attention to this chart of the Gold/Silver ratio. If our analysis is correct and a larger rotation price cycle is about to unfold in the global markets, which may last well into 2020 (or beyond) for certain global markets, then you really need to pay attention to the upside potential for this Gold/Silver ratio.
As we’ve drawn on this chart, if this ratio recovers to 50% of the 2011 peak levels as this rotation unloads on the global market, this would push Gold and Silver prices to levels potentially 60% to 140%+ higher than current levels. I understand how hard it is to understand these types of incredible price increases and how they could possibly be relative to current prices, but trust us in our research. Gold and Silver prices have been measurably depressed over the past 3 to 4 years. Unleashing the real valuation levels of these precious metals at a time when risk factors are excessive suggests that Gold could easily be trading above $3200 and Silver above $60 to $65 within 6 to 12 months.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, we want to urge all skilled technical traders to keep a very open perspective to the “Party on, Dude” mode of the global central banks and be aware that a very fragile floor is the only thing holding up the markets in another massive US presidential election cycle event. In our opinion, the writing is already on the wall and we are preparing for this rotational event and alerting our members on what to do to profit from these moves.
The Federal Reserve and global central banks will attempt to keep the party rolling for as long as possible because they know the downside event could be something they don’t want to have to deal with. So watch how these global central banks attempt to nudge public perception away from risks and towards the “party on” mode. Stay alert. Stay aware. When this breaks, it will break quickly and aggressively.
Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.
NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/52.png544850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-14 14:56:552019-08-14 14:56:55PART 4 – Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling
As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward.
Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/global-central-banks-move-to-keep-the-party-rolling-onward/
The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”. Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect. We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.
Much of the capital that was dumped into the markets was deployed into the global equity markets as investments in emerging markets, capital markets, and the US stock market. As much as everyone wants to think this capital went into infrastructure and other essential investments, much of it went into the only thing that was capable of generating an easy return with limited risk – the global stock market.
At first, after 2008, we saw an immediate jump in emerging markets. This sector of the global economy had been hard hit by the collapse in 2008-09 and an incredible opportunity existed because of a price anomaly that was created near the bottom in 2009. Emerging markets were recipients of some capital when the central banks began to infuse money into the system, but their equity markets were uniquely positioned for advancements because of the pricing levels after the crash.
The SPEM chart below highlights the recovery in the emerging market that took place almost immediately after the bottom formed in 2009. We can clearly see the immediate price advance and the resulting sideways price action after 2011. Once this sector recovered up to previous 2007 levels, there was really nothing else to push it much higher.
Traders should also take notice of the rally in 2016 and 2017. This rally was based on forward expectations that renewed interest in emerging markets would result in increased returns. These aligned with expectations resulting from the US Presidential election (2016) as well. This price advance consisted of a +86% price advance from $23 to $42. Could it happen again?
We believe the next phase of the global market recovery will result in a similar type of price advance after new lows are established in emerging markets. Skilled technical traders should continue to plan for and prepare for this type of setup once emerging markets complete a process of exploring lower lows to form a bottom. This process should complete just before the 2020 US presidential elections and will likely result in another price anomaly setup where the price is well below expected asset levels (extreme pessimism) and will set up as an incredible +40% to +80% upside potential as renewed optimism and the continued transitional process of the global economy persists. Traders just need to wait for the setup – then execute their trades.
The continued process of how capital rolls from one environment to another in search of returns is something we have attempted to explain in detail over the past months. We call it the “capital shift” process. Our belief is that capital (cash) is always hunting for suitable investments in various forms and continues to shift from one environment (market segment) to another as opportunities (ROI) and risks (healthy investment environments) change. So, think of capital as a migratory asset that continues to shift into and out of various segments of the market as opportunities and risks present themselves.
One of the biggest benefactors of the quantitative easing and central bank policies of the past 10+ years has been the US equity market. Take a look at this NAS100 chart to see what we mean.
When we take into consideration the post 9/11 market rally in this NAS100 chart (highlighted by the blue rectangle) we can see that, at that time, the capital was focused away from the US markets because other foreign markets were better positioned in terms of ROI and risk. Even though the US was engaging in moderate QE processes to recover from a moderate economic crisis, a price advance in the NAS100 was muted – nothing like the right side of this chart.
The post-2009 advance in the NAS100 is a completely different story. The technology sector in the US had shifted away from a heavy risk factor and into a “unicorn” mode by 2012/2013. This shift in the investment environment meant that global traders saw the US technology market (NAS100) and an excellent opportunity for capital deployment. As more and more cash poured into the NAS100 chasing these gains, prices continued to skyrocket higher. What next?
Unless the dynamics of this market shift away from expected gains or the US Dollar weakens dramatically, we believe the US stock market will continue to experience some volatility and continued price advancement while capital waits to see what happens throughout the rest of the global market.
We do believe the increased volatility of the past 2 years highlights an extended risk for rotation over the next 2+ years and we believe a move lower may be something we have to prepare for as the 6000 level has already been established as support. Therefore, we are not suggesting the NAS100 will go straight up from here. We are suggesting that unless something dramatic happens to change the economic environment, the US markets will continue to be viewed as opportunistic by global investors and that dips in price, even big ones, will likely respond with a nearly immediate recovery in price – even if a dip were to happen well below the 6000 level.
Once the economic environment shifts away from opportunity in the US, then all bets are off in terms of downside risk – if this ever happens.
Another factor that everyone must be aware of is Real Estate. Recently, US real estate has continued to rally as rates have continued to maintain some level of affordability throughout most of the US. Certain areas have gotten very un-affordable and these markets are already experiencing a pricing reversion where prices are declining as sellers attempt to attract buyers at high prices. Overall, though, the health of the US real estate market is still moderately strong.
One thing that we would be concerned about is a perceptional shift away from buying if the US Fed and global central banks engage in new stimulus processes. Consumers may view this process as a warning that some concern is underlying the efforts of the central banks and hold off on buying real estate while they wait to see what happens after the US 2020 elections. We believe this may already be happening right now.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The REZ real estate ETF continues to push higher as pricing becomes an issue and sales levels continue to support a fairly active market. We are concerned that a sharp change in perception could be taking place over the next 12+ months as fears of a change in US political leadership may thwart or diminish some forward expectations. Investors need to pay attention to all aspects of the markets in order to prepare for future opportunities and price moves.
In Part III of this article, we’ll look into some of the fundamental elements of the US and global economies and how the past actions of the US Fed and global central banks may have set up the global markets for the bigger price rotations we are expecting over the next 12 to 24+ months.
Also, takes a look at today’s charts compared to the 2008 market top and I can’t warn enough that the next financial crisis (bear market) is scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION
TO PREMIUM TRADE SIGNALS!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/21.png544850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-13 10:26:432019-08-13 10:26:43Part II – Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again
The recent news that the US Fed, China and many of the global central banks are continuing to make efforts to lower rates and spark further consumer spending and economic activity is reminiscent of the late 2010~2013 global economic recovery efforts. This was a time when the economy was much slower than current levels and when central banks were doing everything possible to attempt to raise consumer and business activity related to capital.
The world’s governments and banks operate on a very simple premise – transactions and economic activity must continue to operate within a fairly standard range of consistency in order for tax revenues and transactional fees to drive profits/income. If extended periods of economic contraction persist, the capacity to function within standard operating parameters diminishes very quickly for these institutions. A -5% to -10% contraction in asset values, transactional business, tax revenues and/or consumer activity over an extended period of time could result in a catastrophic set of events taking place.
All the credit issues and interest rate changes recently allowed us to profit from collapse in the stock market and rally in metals for a quick 24.16% profit last week.
The 2008-09 global credit market collapse
In the 2008-09 global credit market collapse, we witnessed an event that accelerated well beyond this -10% contraction very quickly. We believe the reason the US Fed and Global Central Banks are engaging in stimulus that is designed to attempt to spark further lending, borrowing and increased consumer activities to prompt another round of expansion within the global economy. We believe these efforts to support global asset prices and transactional processes and fees may end up supporting a process where many central banks and governments may end up paying consumers to borrow (negative interest rates) and pay consumers to continue engaging in economic activities.
Historically, central bank rates have never been this low in recent history and recent news that global central banks may continue to lower interest rates, ease monetary policy and introduce new stimulus programs suggests that concerns of a global market recession are real and that concerns the global consumer may contract economic activity and spending are real. Yet, is the answer to this problem related to real lending rates or something else?
Countries where risks are excessively higher rates
It appears from our research that the only countries that are capable of operating at rates that are closer to normal are countries where risks are excessive and rates are higher because they need to attract investment into their debt/bonds. Established markets appear to be operating in a mode where lending rates are not conducive to traditional economic mechanisms of spending, saving, investing and rational accounting fundamental. The closest example we can use to attempt to explain this process is to state that we believe the credit markets never fully recovered after the 2008-09 credit market collapse and the new debt created from that event has, as of yet, failed to prompt any real economic expansion.
We believe the global economy is within a transitional process that will result in a longer-term economic expansion – yet we believe the process of achieving this expansion may require the destruction of certain aspects of the current economic system. The chart below highlights the efforts from 2003 through early 2019 of global banks to stimulate and stabilize the global economy with every tool available.
As difficult as it is to see in this image, global central banks have engaged in various efforts, at various times, to enact a concerted effort to stimulated the global economy, then back away from stimulus to evaluate the individual processes of the global economy and its ability to support itself. Each rise in QE activity is marked with new challenges and new efforts to spark economic activity. We believe one of the main challenges of this policy is that QE efforts may have benefited the wrong segment of the global population at the time and further eroded the intended outcome of these efforts.
Throughout this incredible global effort to stimulate and stabilize the global economy, certain facets of the global economy have reacted positively while others have reacted negatively. Obviously, the benefits and failures of this continuing effort to transition through the recent economic malaise have resulted in a number of various advancements and declines over the years. It is rather interesting how capital has shifted into and out of various markets, segments, commodities and other forms in an effort to chase opportunity and returns while it appears the fundamental components of the global economy are still somewhat weak.
Next, in Part II of this article, we’ll take a look at some of the winners and losers over the past 10 to 20+ years as a series of global economic events continue to roil the global markets and we’ll discuss what we believe may become the final transitional phase of this global event.
MORE WARNING SIGNS AND TRADES TO BE AWARE OF: GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/11.jpg488678adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-12 23:22:072019-08-12 23:22:07Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward
Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing. Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55. Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President Trump was elected on November 2016, yet has recently fallen as trade and global economic concerns become more intense.
This should be viewed as a strong warning sign that institutional traders and investors are very concerned that the future economic and manufacturing activities throughout the world are continuing to contract. Copper is used in various forms throughout all types of manufacturing and consumer products, such as computers, building & infrastructure, electronics, chemical & medical use as well as automobile and aircraft manufacturing. It makes sense that copper prices would be a leading indicator for much of the global economy and relate to economic output and capacity.
Copper Monthly Long Term Chart
As the US/China trade war continues and we enter the final stretch of the US Presidential election cycle, we believe that copper will breakdown below the $2.50 level and attempt to identify past support levels below slightly $1.50 over the next 6 to 12+ months. We believe the next big move in commodities will be a contraction move where certain commodities (mostly manufacturing & industrial related) will collapse as the world focuses on two of the most important events that are about to conclude in 16+ months: the US Presidential elections and the Global Trade/Economic issues.
Copper Monthly Pennant Pattern
The breakdown in commodity prices as related to slower expectations and global economic demand may see a dramatic downside move or may see a more measured “slide” towards the $1.45 level (much like what we saw happen between 2013 and 2016). Overall, though, we believe the downside price move outweighs the upside at this time – unless some type of dramatic resolution to the US/China trade issues and global economic slowdown are ended.
We’ve also highlighted an extended long-term Pennant/Flag formation in Copper that should provide further insight as to the range of price rotation before the bigger breakdown in price occurs. This pennant formation will likely contain the immediate price range/rotation over the next few months to between $2.30 to $3.00. Should price break below the $2.25 level within the next 2~6+ months, then we would expect an immediate downside move towards the $1.50 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets. Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations. We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.
These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders. You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present. In fact, last week we closed out 24.16% in profits for the first week of August and you can see the charts here.
Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets. Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas, and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations. We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.
These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders. You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present.
Recently warning that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1.png328850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-12 23:01:542019-08-12 23:01:54All Eyes On Copper
In the first part of this multi-part research post, we highlighted what we are calling a Crazy Ivan price event (borrowed from the movie Red October – (source). The one thing we want you to take away from this article is that August 19, 2019, should be a major price inflection date where the price is very likely to begin a new downside price trend in the US and global stock markets. This will likely push commodity prices to extremes and may very well push Gold and Silver into the stratosphere as fear and greed take hold across the planet.
Part I we highlighted how the VIX and the NQ are set up to react to this Crazy Ivan pricing event and how we believe many traders/investors are simply unaware of the potential for this type of large reversion price move. We want to be clear, we believe the US markets will be somewhat immune from extended downside risks. This does not mean there won’t be a downside price move and this does not mean that the markets won’t experience the Crazy Ivan reversion trend. It will likely happen just as we are expecting, yet we believe the US stock markets will quickly recover from this move – like it has done many times in the past.
Our research that highlighted this August 19, 2019 date and the potential for what we are calling the Crazy Ivan price move is rooted in our super-cycle analysis, predictive modeling tools, and other specialized proprietary price modeling solutions and utilities. We believe we’ve identified a key inflection point/date that will start what we are calling a “breakdown move” which will lead to the Crazy Ivan event throughout the globe. As we stated in the first part of this article – we don’t know the exact composition of this event yet, but we do know that is should begin to happen near or after August 19, 2019.
Now, let’s get busy digging into the Gold and Silver charts for all our followers.
Gold 2-Week Chart Interval
This first Gold 2-Week chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool and helps to show us where the price is targeting for the initial upside move from the April 21~24 Momentum Base pattern that we called back in January 2019. We believe the current breakout upside price move will initially target the $1597 level before briefly stalling, then rallying further to target the $1785 level or higher.
We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push Gold much higher than our projected levels under certain circumstances:A. The US Dollar weakens throughout the initial process of the Crazy Ivan event
B. Cryptos collapse as governments clamp down on rogue exchanges/currencies
C. Massive credit and debt issues arise in China, Asia or the EU that threaten future economic output and operations
D. Some type of crisis event unfolds where global investors believe war or conflict is imminent. (think Hong Kong, North Korea or somewhere in that general vicinity).
Without these additional impetuses in the metals market, we believe the price will follow our Crazy Ivan expectations (YELLOW LINES, below) fairly closely over the next 30 to 60+ days.
Silver Daily Chart Interval
Silver, on the other hand, is set up to break substantially higher based on the upside move we expect in Gold and the possibility that the Gold/Silver ratio will continue to contract to lower levels. Recently, the Gold/Silver ratio fell from approximately 93 to 86. This move relates the total number of ounces of Silver one must buy to equal the price of one ounce of Gold. Currently, this level is back up to 89.5 as Gold has rallied faster than Silver has rallied.
But what happens when traders catch onto the fact that Gold and Silver will rally as this Crazy Ivan event takes place and that Silver is the true undervalued metal across the planet? At the peak of Gold/Silver prices near April 2011, the Gold/Silver ratio was resting near 32 (yes you read that properly). What would that look like on the Silver chart, below, if Gold continued to rally to levels above $2000? It is really simple to find out.
$2000 (Gold per ounce) / 32 = $62.50 per ounce for Silver
What if Gold rallied a full 100% Fibonacci measured move from the previous 1999-2011 rally? That peak level would be $2700 in Gold and the calculation is still simple.
$2700 (estimate Gold peak) / 32 = $84.375 per ounce for Silver.
Could it happen like this? Yes, in theory, and reality it really could happen that Gold rallies to a level that equals a full 100% Fibonacci price extension and the ratio level falls to levels near 32. If that were to happen, then these calculations would be accurate.
This is why we believe the Crazy Ivan event will become the catalyst for some really incredible trading opportunities and big price swings over the next 6 to 13+ months.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Our $21 upside price target in Silver is really muted compared to our long term price projections. Yet everything hinges on this August 19, 2019 breakdown cycle date and what happens after that. Our research suggests this current downside price move may have been a volatility explosion related to the lack of liquidity in the global markets and to hint that the markets are capable of being far more irrational for far longer than anyone expects.
We are only 9 days into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.
We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures. This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/121.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-10 01:04:352019-08-10 01:04:35Part II – Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan”
