The recent news that the US and China will restart trade talks resulted in a fairly large upside price rotation as this “good news” suggests that some resolution to the trade issues may be in the works soon. Yet we want to warn traders that the US will likely want to see progress and action regarding any trade resolution before tariffs are reduced and eventually removed. We can’t imagine that the US would take any promises stated by China as any real progress towards balancing trade or normalizing relations. We believe the process of resolving the US/Chinese trade dispute could still be many months away from any real opportunities for traders and the global markets.
The other issue on the table this week and in the immediate near future is the “no-deal” BREXIT. News that the Queen assisted Boris Johnson by shuttling Parliament in the UK to help facilitate a “no-deal” BREXIT could send shock-waves throughout the global markets over the next 30 to 60+ days. Even though the US and UK appear to have settled on some strong trade resolutions to help calm the waters, the fallout in the EU as well as the reverberations that may be felt throughout the world over the next 12+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter
Weekly Transportation Index
Overall, we are relying on some of our favorite alternate charts to help us understand what the markets are really showing us in terms of price action and direction. One of our favorites, the Transportation Index, has recently crossed below the Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Level (early Aug 2019) and continues to trail below 10,400.
A double-bottom setup has formed near the 9695 level that appears to be a fairly strong level of support. If this level is broken in the future, our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting downside price targets below 8500 (below the lows in December 2018). This would suggest that any real downside risk could extend the US indexes below the December 2018 lows on a breakdown move.
SP500 Daily Index Chart
]As we try to translate the Transportation Index analysis into the ES chart, the very first thing we focus on is the tight, sideways price range that continues to “coil” before a breakout/breakdown move. The low set up in early August 2019 (near 2775.75) is still the most recent critical low in price formation. The other recent low present a very interesting setup – a potential Double-bottom setup near 2817.75, yet we also see a recent “new low” setup from the dip in price on August 26 (with a low of 2810.25). This new low follows the Fibonacci price theory rules to support a bearish/downside price trend setup that should continue to dominate the markets until we see any type of “new highs”. Therefore, the analysis of the TRAN chart and the current setup in the ES continues to suggest a breakdown move is likely.
SP500 Weekly Index Chart
This Weekly ES chart highlights how the Fibonacci price modeling system is interpreting the recent volatility and price rotation over the past 18+ months. Pay very close attention to the current Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Levels. While you are at it, pay very close attention to the previous Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Levels. What you will notice is that the current price rotation over the past few weeks is right between the current and past Fibonacci trigger levels for both the Bullish and Bearish price rotation going all the way back to the downside rotation in November/December 2018. This would suggest that the current price level is very fragile in terms of future direction.
We are not seeing any real clear price direction or trend right now, the current Fibonacci price trigger levels are more than 100 points away from the current price (either direction) and the support level near 2800 is still holding. The Daily chart suggests price is attempting to hold above support near 2880. Yet the new low on the Daily chart suggests price has recently shown a Fibonacci Trend with potentially confirms price weakness and a potential bearish outcome.
How are traders to interpret all of this information and make decisions?
Headed into this weekend, our research team suggests pairing back any open long positions you may have in your portfolio off of these recent highs and preparing for a bigger price move going into the end of 2019. Our researchers still believe a breakdown in price will occur as the BREXIT, US/China trade issues and further economic contractions continue to undermine real growth opportunities going into the end of 2019. But time will tell if we are correct in our interpretations or not. Check out these other exciting trading tools and chart full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
We believe the news events are artificially supporting the markets with expectations that may prove to be many many months away. Watching the other “alternative” charts (like the TRAN, XLF, IWM, YINN, and others), we can clearly see the price recovery in the ES, NQ, and YM are somewhat isolated price moves related to news related expectations. The rest of the market is not reacting like these major indexes.
We would advise traders and investors to take advantage of these higher prices to pull profits out of open long positions and take some risk off the table at this juncture in price. We entered a new trade today and our portfolio is primed and ready for big moves going into next week.
We believe super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months.
We are only 5 to 11 days away from a new major event and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/21.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-02 15:49:362019-09-02 15:49:36Transportation Index Points To Stock Markets Weakness
Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments. Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members.
One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY. Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter
You can read our original research here:
July 10, 2019:PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWERJuly 26, 2019: ENERGY SETS UP TWO NEW TRADES – HERE THEY ARE
While the original setup resulted in a fantastic trade setup and completion – where both targets hit and the price extended more than $10 beyond our Target 2, we are now alerting you that ERY will likely set up another, even bigger, opportunity over the next 30+ days.
We believe our previous research, particularly related to Crude Oil, will result in ERY rotating lower over the next 20+ days, possibly towards the $50 level, before setting up another momentum base and beginning an upside move targeting the $70 to $75. If our research is correct, this move will come at a time when global markets are expecting must slower economic activity and/or a massive supply glut in Oil.
Daily ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)
This Daily ERY Chart shows the original trade setup that occurred after our July 26 post and includes the original target levels drawn as YELLOW ARROWS on the chart. It is easy to see the success of this trade and how ERY rotated higher as Crude Oil weakened.
Weekly ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)
This Weekly ERY chart highlights what we believe will be the next trade setup which will start to complete the momentum base sometime near the end of September or into early October. We expect the rally in ERY to begin in mid-October and carry on into November, based on our ADL predictive modeling system (see the original article listed above).
We believe the downside rotation in ERY that we are expecting will coincide with a moderate upside move in Crude Oil over the next 30+ days before a bigger breakdown in Oil prices creates this incredible opportunity in ERY. Skilled technical traders just need to wait for the momentum base to complete. I just posted this gold and silver trading setup unfolding here.
If you follow our ADL predictive modeling system’s research, you’ll see that it expects Crude Oil to break down to levels below $40 before or near the end of 2019. That move could come quicker than we expect is global markets accelerate the economic slowdown we’ve seen recently. We’ll keep you informed of this, and other, great trades as they setup.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/11.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-30 16:16:252019-08-30 16:16:25Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade
Be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletterRide my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/HoweStreet.png251400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-30 13:34:102019-08-30 13:34:10Markets Ready to Pop, But Up or Down?
Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.
The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible. The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well. The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold. Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold. This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
What is the Crazy Ivan event? It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year. In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now. This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support. Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.
August 9, 2019: PART II – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”August 8, 2019:PART I – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further. In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed. This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.
Gold should pause near $1600, roll a bit lower towards the $1500 level near the end of September 2019, then begin setting up another “momentum base” to launch into the next rally. Skilled technical traders should be very aware of this setup and not try to chase short term trades at this point. Wait for the rotation to setup and wait for the momentum base before entering your next Gold trades.
Silver Weekly Price Chart
Silver will likely Follow Gold in this manner and rotate by a smaller amount – likely only $0.60 to $0.75 from a peak near $18.75. Therefore, any opportunity to buy Silver below or near $18 is still a valid entry point before the next big move higher.
We, honestly, hope you were following our research last year and earlier this year where we continued to urge our followers and members to load up on physical metals while they could (before this big move started). Even right now, you can still take advantage of the relatively low price levels before the next big move higher.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
RAY DALIO SAYS BUY GOLD AND ERIC SPROTT IS A MEGA HOLDER OF METALS ESPECIALLY SILVER!
A recent article by Ray Dalio, he stated gold is the asset in which we should all be accumulating as it will be a top performer globally when things start to fall apart. On May 31st Eric Sprott talked about my gold forecast in detail. Since then I have accumulated more gold and silver from Eric Sprott’s company https://www.SprottMoney.com/and you should too.
Eric Sprott Gold & Silver
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This is the start of the Crazy Ivan price move we warned you about nearly a month ago. We need to wait for one last minor price rotation in both Gold and Silver before the bigger Crazy Ivan price event hits. We are only 7 to 14 days away from the start of that event. Wait for Gold to rotate as we suggest and set up the Momentum Base near the middle of September – then get ready for the next leg of the Crazy Ivan even to hit. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/0.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-30 12:43:462019-08-30 12:43:46Precious Metals About To Pull A Crazy Ivan
Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September. We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.
Our original research posts to review :
June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE
June 25, 2019: NATURAL GAS SETS UP BOTTOM PATTERN
Our research tools suggest that September has a 65% probability of rallying more than 6x the historical range. This would suggest a rally potential of more than $2 exists in September for Natural Gas. Our tools also suggest that October has a 75% probability of rallying more than 3.2x the historical range. This would suggest a potential rally of more than $1.20 in October.
Combine those potential moves and probabilities over a 60-day span and we are talking about a $2.50 to $3.50 potential price rally with a 70%+ historical probability of success. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter.
Daily Natural Gas Chart
This Daily Natural Gas Chart highlights the price rotation as price continued to base below the $2.40 level. We’ve also highlighted the basing range as a blue rectangle on this chart. We expect the upside move to begin in early September and to continue to rally towards the $2.75 level before finding initial resistance. It is very likely that this rally will build momentum as we end October and start into September. It will not be “straight up” as we have drawn on this chart.
Weekly Natural Gas chart
This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights our longer-term expectations for the price rally. The initial move will likely end just below $3.00 (likely in the $2.75 to $2.95 range). After that level is reached, we expect a bit of resistance as price rotates near the Bullish Fibonacci Price Trigger Level, then rallies beyond it to target levels above $3.65. Once price moves above $3.50, we could experience a price spike as we had in 2018 where price reached as high as $5.00 in Natural Gas. Skilled technical traders could play this move for incredible profits if they time their entries and exits well.
UGAZ 3x Long Natural Gas ETF Chart
We believe most skilled technical traders that want to avoid massive leveraged risks should consider trading UGAZ – the 3x Long Natural Gas ETF. Yes, risks still exist in this trade as any further downside price rotation before a rally begins could present a moderate degree of loss. Yet, we believe the upside potential for the rally and the historical data supporting the very strong probability for an upside price rally outweighs the risks at this time. Support near $11 would be our ultimate downside price risk. Any entry below $14 would be acceptable given the current setup and expectations. Immediate upside expectations are for price to move towards the $18 level, then pause before moving even higher towards the $22 to $24 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Remember, we called this move over 60 days ago and are alerting you to the very real possibility that the basing pattern is complete. We expect the upside price rally to begin very early in September at this point and the timing of this trade seems perfectly aligned with our historical price modeling systems and other predictive modeling tools.
This could be one of the best short term trades going into the end of 2019. You won’t want to miss this one.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/130.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-27 10:33:262019-08-27 10:33:26Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed?
This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us). You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us. We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019. Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
This incredible research targeted the $1600+ level by September/November 2019. We are only about $70 away from that level right now and we have new ADL research to share with all of our followers.
If you are a fan of our research or you can understand the value of the ADL predictive modeling system and what we have highlighted for our followers – you already know that any future ADL predictions for precious metals should be of particular interest to all of you. What are metals going to do over the next few months and how can you prepare for this move, let us help you try to prepare for this next move.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
This Gold Monthly chat highlighting the ADL predictive modeling system results shows why gold traders need to be patient and wait for the next setup. That setup exists over the next 30 days as the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that Gold will attempt a downside price rotation to levels near $1490 before attempting another rally back above $1600. This is the next proper price rotation setup that traders need to look for. The second setup occurs in Jan/Feb 2020 where the price is expected to rotate from above $1600 to levels near $1540 before launching into another big rally to levels above $1870.
The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is one of the most incredible price modeling tools we use in our research. We’ve just shown you what our research tools believe Gold will do over the next 14+ months. We believe we are helping more traders and investors by proving our incredible research tools work better than any other technology solutions available in the market right now and are proving it by posting these types of charts many months before price can attempt to prove or disprove our research.
Now, one of the biggest moves is going to be in Silver and we’ve all been waiting for the incredible reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio. It is at that point when Silver begins to rally faster than Gold is rallying that we will see a true reversion in the Gold/Silver ratio. That event will result in an incredible rally in silver that could push the price of silver above $35 to $40 per ounce – or higher.
Our ADL predictive modeling system running on a Quarterly Silver chart highlights the opportunity that still exists for metals traders. Silver will continue to rally as Gold rolls higher. Silver will continue to rally to levels just below $20 over the next 8+months. The big breakout to the upside starts to take place Q3 2020. That move will push Silver prices to levels above $20 where a brief rotation will take place. By Q1 2021, the price of silver will be rallying extensively and the cat will be out of the bag in terms of what or why the metals are skyrocketing.
These moves in precious metals are going to be once of the most incredible opportunities for investors. There will be other swings in market sectors and major global market indexes as well. This is the time for all traders/investors to take advantage of the resources that are available to learn to take advantage of these setups. Our research team continues to deliver some of the most incredible research and predictive modeling results anyone has ever seen. If you can not see the value of being able to see 14 to 24 months into the future.
We urge you to consider finding resources and a team of researchers that can assist you over the next 12+ months as the moves in the global markets are going to be incredibly large and varied. Now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities and to find the right partners to assist you in finding the right trades.
CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/112.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-26 14:48:442019-08-26 14:48:44Precious Metals ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move
Our August 19th breakdown prediction aligns with our other analysis tools and predictive modeling systems. The key to understanding price action lies in two modes of operational aspects for analysts. Either the analysis is going to be correct and the markets will break down as we have predicted or the analysis will be incorrect and the markets will break higher to rally to new highs. We call this the “failure to fail” mode or the “failure to succeed” mode of compliance for price. Either it will do what we expect or it won’t.
There are a few things that we, as analysts, must take into consideration with regards to future predictions of price action and direction. First, sometimes we fail to make perfect predictions. It is not easy or 100% guaranteed that our predictions will become valid or accurate on the day we suggest price should move in a certain direction.
We are going to show you the ADL charts that support our predictions and we are going to discuss why we believe the setup is still valid, but we are going to have to let price confirm our prediction and wait for it to move in a direction that either confirms our research or invalidates it.
As many of you know, we use advanced tools to help us understand and predictions regarding future price moves. Many of our tools align with price cycles, predictive modeling, and other price modeling tools that we use to try to understand where and when the price may turn or continue to trend in a specific direction.
One of our most advanced tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling tool. With it, we can ask the ADL tool to show us what price will attempt to do in the future based on a type of DNA candlestick mapping that attempts to isolate the highest probability outcomes.
Weekly NQ Futures Index Chart
Below, we’ve included a Weekly NQ ADL chart that shows you what our ADL predictive modeling system it expecting the NQ price to do over the next 10+ weeks. You can see from this chart that price is expected to trail lower from current levels and to potentially reach a low point of 6500 by early October 2019.
One other aspect that we must consider is that price can sometimes react 2-5 weeks later than the ADL predictive price levels show. We call these Price Anomalies. This is where price sets up an unusual price formation that is actually moving against the ADL predictive price level (in this case, staying higher while the ADL predictive price level moves lower).
We determine these to be price anomalies because, in most cases, the price will eventually break toward the ADL predictive price level in a reversion move. Therefore, these anomalies can sometimes be very good trading signals as price moves against the ADL predicted trend.
Be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter
VIX Weekly Chart
The ADL of the VIX Weekly chart shows a spike in the VIX levels over the next 3 to 7+ weeks. This spike will likely coincide with a downward price move in the US markets that could begin as early as early September 2019.
The purpose of this ADL VIX Chart is to show you how our ADL modeling system is able to warn us of future price moves and how we can align certain analysis results with other charts to form a larger perspective of the markets in general.
Concluding Thoughts:
As of right now, the August 19th breakdown prediction we shared more than a month ago still stands as the price has yet to rally above 8050 on the NQ to present a new upside price trend. Our ADL predictive modeling system is still suggesting that the price wants to move lower from current levels and attempt to target the 6500 price level.
Even though the exact August 19th date did not result in a price breakdown event, you must understand we were calling for a breakdown to happen “on or near August 19”. That means sometime this week or next week most likely – possibly a bit later if the price anomaly of the stock indexes holding up at the upper end of our ADL price range.
If you’ve followed our research long enough you’ll understand that we can make these predictions about the future based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and research – yet we can’t be 100% accurate on the date/time of the event because we don’t have the ability to see that much detail or control what the global markets do in terms of price, trends, global central banks, and other factors. We can only relate what we see in the markets using our modeling tools and attempt to help you understand what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.
Right now, a price anomaly where the price is trading above our expected price prediction level appears to be set up which will likely result in a price breakdown in the near future (3 to 10+ days). Time will tell. If price rallies because of some external factor and breaks the 8050 highs on the NQ, then we would consider the ADL predictive analysis result to potentially be invalidated because of this new high. Currently, that is not the case and we are waiting for the breakdown event to begin and will position our money accordingly when price confirms the move.
If you like this big-picture analysis and forecasts be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter or let me send you my low-risk index ETF trade signals plus my analysis with my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/102.png6071024adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-23 23:34:112019-08-23 23:34:11The August Stock market Breakdown Prediction and Analysis
So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels. A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future. B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.
In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently. The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars. This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.
Our research suggests that given current global market factors, we are looking at a very narrow pricing structure for US fed rates that are completely dependent on consumer activities (consumer optimism and activity, perception of the economic opportunities and supply/demand price equilibrium). Which is why we believe the next 15+ months could be very interesting for global traders and consumers.
We use a simple tool to track the levels and scope of the changing markets in various areas of the US and have noticed a dramatic increase in the numbers of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures in various prime markets over the past 12+ months. Take a look at some of these maps.
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In each one of these maps, there are more than 500+ current active Foreclosures and/or Pre-Foreclosure listing. These are prime real estate areas like Los Angeles/Hollywood, CA, New York City, NY, San Francisco, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Chicago, IL and Newark, NJ. Either the market is changing or the consumer is changing because affordability is sky-high.
The law of supply and demand dictates that when the price gets too high and affordability is beyond the scope of the average buyer, then price MUST fall to levels that support healthy buyers and re-balance the marketplace. This type of price reversion has happened many times in the past, but this time we believe the US Fed may just let the dust settle and allow these foreclosures to funnel through the traditional channels (banks and financial institutions.
We do believe the US Fed is slightly behind the curve in terms of rate levels and actions. The Fed waited till 2016 to begin raising rates when our model suggested rates should have been raised in 2013. Additionally, the Fed raised rates above the 2.25% upper boundary of our modeling system. The Fed recently began to decrease rates from the 2.5% level which we agree with. The Fed target should be between 1.5% to 2.0% at this point and levels should fluctuate up and down within this range for the next 4+ years – gradually settling near 1.25% near 2024.
Again, there are only two outcomes that can dramatically alter the path without our modeling system – dramatic debt reduction or dramatic GDP increases. Possibly, we may see a combination of both of these over the next 10+ years, but our belief is that the US Fed is trapped in a low growth, mild inflationary mode waiting for GDP to increase while attempt to PRAY that no asset bubble pops. The reality is that bubble will pop and price levels will revert to find “true value” before any real GDP increases begin to take form.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
It’s going to be an interesting 10+ years, folks. Get ready for some really big price swings in almost all the global markets and various sectors.
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with select real estate ETFs which we are keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/90.png588850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-23 00:04:172019-08-23 00:04:17Part III – Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Chris-and-Other-Guy.png220266adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-21 21:31:102019-08-21 21:31:10THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL
In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward. We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.
We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. The process is always somewhat similar. Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential. The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments. This is how the process starts.
Once it starts, a shift takes place in the market that can be sudden or it can be transitional. The shift is often termed as a change from a “Seller’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market”. This terminology is used to describe who is in control of the transaction and who has the advantage within the transaction. When it is a “Seller’s Market”, buyers are typically offering to pay MORE for an item/home and the seller does not have to stress about trying to sell their property/items. When it is a “Buyer’s Market”, the buyer is able to negotiate with the seller, demanding more concessions, lower prices, better deals and often has a wide variety of sellers wanting to court the buyer away from other property/items. See how this shift in market dynamics can really change the way a marketplace works.
Now, lets take a look at how the US consumer is doing, overall, and how it might reflect a change in the marketplace if certain fundamental change.
This chart of the delinquency rates for All Loans and Leases in the US shows an increase in the levels of delinquencies starting near the 2016 year. This aligns with the year that the US Fed began raising the Fed Funds Rate and is exactly 1 year after the Chinese initiated capital controls to attempt to prevent local currency (Chinese Yuan) from leaving the country and landing in other countries as foreign assets. In 2015, the delinquency rate for All Loans and Leases was near 2004~05 levels (below 30,000). Right now, the level is above the 2008 level near 36,000.
Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies are rising sharply. Since 2016, the increase in sub-prime credit card delinquencies has skyrocketed above the peak levels of 2008-09 and continues to stay above 5.5%.
Meanwhile, those nasty Mortgage Backed Securities held outright are still massively higher than in 2008/09 based on this Fred data. We are unsure why the data is reported as ZERO in 2008, but we can safely assume that a $1.55 Trillion risk factor in these MBS levels is not something that we would consider a minor risk factor.
Now, in the first part of this article, we promised to show you some data from our proprietary Fed modeling utility and to show you what we use to determine if the US Fed is ahead of the curve or behind it. Here you go..
Our original research model of the US economy and the Fed Rate levels into the future are shown below. You can see that our model suggests the US Fed, as of 2013, should have been raising rates towards the 1.5% level then gradually raising them further towards 2.0% to 2.25% before 2017. This type of increase would have slowed the advance of the real estate price levels and moderated the expansion of the debt levels that are currently associated within this sector. Instead, the US Fed was late in their efforts to raise rates – starting only in late 2016.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Based on our model, current rates should be dropping toward levels near 1.25% to 1.75% as US debt, GDP and population levels continue to increase. In the 4 years after the 2020 election, rates should stay below 2% as the US Fed is somewhat trapped until GDP increases dramatically. Our modeling system suggests there are only two ways the US Fed can attempt to raise rates above 2.5% in the future; a. the US GDP increases dramatically (increasing to levels more than 1.5x total US debt annually), or b. US debt is dramatically reduced while GDP continues to grow at moderate rates.
In the last part of this 3 part article series, we’ll show you more data that will allow you to prepare for the future events that may unfold and show you how to watch for some of these trigger events yourself.
If you are like me and have friends who know nothing about real estate like cops and techie programmers building spec homes and thinking its easy money, then you know the market is or has already topped. In fact, take a look at home sales month over month in Canada.
House Values Declining Month Over Month
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/15.png431889adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-21 11:45:372019-08-21 11:45:37PART II – Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?
