Posts

Short Covering & FOMO Fever Powering Stock Markets

I talked with HoweStreet.com yesterday about the markets and what is unfolding and how to play it.

This video shows the charts and thinking of what is to come this week/next as the rising wedge blow-off top takes place and gets everyone emotional (short covering / Fear of missing the next rally)

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Investor and Swing Trading Newsletters had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain, and we closed out another winning trade last Friday.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Chuck Jaffe Talks Technical Analysis on Money Life – Indexes & Metals

Chuck Jaffe, the host of Money Life, is a veteran financial journalist and nationally syndicated financial columnist whose work appears in newspapers from coast to coast. Today he talks with Chris Vermeulen.

Chuck has been named to MutualFundWire’s list of the 40 Most Influential People in Fund Distribution and was the first journalist to make the list. Over the course of his career, he has won numerous awards for business and personal finance journalism.

Chris Vermeulen has been a technical analyst and trader since 1997, he has been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. He has the pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Chris states “2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.”

If you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride Chris’ coattails as he navigates these financial markets and builds wealth while others struggle during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Silver Demand vs Gold Demand

I recently talked with Jim Goddard at HoweStreet radio about gold, silver, miners, the dollar, among other things. Many markets are at major turning points and its critical that investors understand where we are in the major market cycles.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our home.

If our retirement accounts are not protected during the next bear market which one will happen eventually, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly and uncertain like they are now. I will show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

LISTEN TO THIS CONVERSATION FOR MORE DETAILS.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

US Stock Market Enters Twilight Zone

The US stock market has rallied substantially since the bottom on March 23, 2020.  Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing us just how fragile the US stock market and certain sectors of the markets really are right now.  What’s going to happen next and how should you prepare for the next big move?  Let us try to explain our beliefs.

First, the US stock market bottom just as the US Senate and Fed announced major stimulus packages designed to support the collapsing markets.  Everything done prior to the March 23 date was “fodder” as the risk to the global markets was far greater than anything the US Fed or global central banks could muster.  On March 23, the US Fed initiated an unlimited asset purchase program to support the failing markets.  This changed the perspective of traders/investors immediately – but it also created a massive risk factor that few even considered. For a complete timeline on the US Fed actions, review this link.

Our own research team was calling for a breakdown in the US and global markets many months in advance of this move – even before the world knew about the Chinese/Wuhan virus event.  Take a look at some of our research posts from the past

January 26, 2020: The Black Swan Event Begins

January 29, 2020: Are We Setting Up For A Waterfall Selloff?

February 18, 2020: Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part II

Less than 3 days prior to the massive selloff event, we posted this:

February 24, 2020: Has The Equities Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity?

Today, we are posting this research article to highlight the unique setup in many of the major US stock indexes and sectors.  Using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system, two things become clearly evident in the charts…

A.  Price must hold above support levels (the upper TRIGGER ZONE level and/or the GREEN Fibonacci Trigger level on the right side of the chart) in order for the uptrend to continue.

B.  Price has already reached (in most cases) the CYAN Fibonacci projected target level and this level may turn into major resistance pushing the price back into a downtrend.

BEFORE WE CONTINUE, BE SURE TO 
OPT-IN TO MY FREE MARKET TREND SIGNALS 
SO YOU DON’T MISS OUR NEXT SPECIAL REPORT!

DAILY SPY CHART

This first Daily SPY chart clearly highlights the setup we are describing.  First, take a look at the CYAN line on the chart near the 282.97 level.  This Fibonacci target level becomes support when price moves above it and becomes resistant when price moves below it.  Currently, the SPY is trading very near to the 283 level and we believe this level may turn into massive resistance over the next 5 to 10+ days.

Secondly, take a look at the TRIGGER ZONE on this chart (a price zone drawn between the Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci price trigger levels).  This zone represents a very dangerous price area where the overall price trend may change directions and where volatility could explode. As long as the price stays above this zone, then moderate bullish price activity should be expected.

If the price falls below this zone, then moderate to strong bearish price activity should be expected.  The reason why the downside risk is much greater than the upside potential is because of the recent downtrend in the market that sets up a “recent higher high” near 295.50.

MONTHLY SPY CHART

This Monthly SPY chart highlights the longer-term Fibonacci price analysis.  The extreme breakdown in price has already broken below the RED Fibonacci Bearish price trigger level near $300 and broken through the BLUE initial target level near $279.00.  The next downside price target levels are GREY, near $173.40, and RED, near $128.00.  Currently, the SPY price has rallied back above the BLUE target level and is stalling near $282~285.  This price level is already below the $300 Bearish Trigger level – which suggests further downside price activity in our future.

Additionally, pay attention to the “arcs” that are on this Monthly chart.  These are our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that show us where price may target based on a theory that each price trend creates “price amplitude waves” into the past and future.  Currently, the “4D” area on this chart is our most likely bottom area.  There is also a “1.618” GREEN price arc that is just above the current price level (near $292).  We believe this Green 1.618 level is acting as major resistance and that price will reverse back to the downside within a 5 to 10-day window.

WEEKLY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

This Weekly TRAN, Transportation Index, chart highlights a similar pattern but also shows how much downside pricing pressure is still evident across different sectors of the markets.  Even though the ES, NQ, and YM have rallied to near 50% to 61% of the initial downside price move, the Transportation Index has only recovered to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.  This suggests that the US Fed and global central banks have poured capital into the blue chips and technology sectors while leaving much of the broader market bloodied and on the sidelines.

A similar type of setup is appearing in this TRAN chart.  The CYAN target level has been reached and the price has stalled just above this level.  The TRIGGER ZONE is clearly evident on the chart and the price is slightly above that level right now.  Very clear downside price targets are evident (RED, Blue and GREY) and any price move below $7565 will likely prompt a much bigger downside price move.  What we are seeing in the markets is that any substantial downside price rotation will potentially set up a much bigger downside price collapse in the US and global markets.

WEEKLY XLF CHART

This Weekly XLF chart, the Financial Sector SPDR ETF, sets up almost identical to the TRAN chart.  Deeper price targets, the price has already reached the CYAN target level and stalled recent downside price rotation, and a very real possibility that any downside price move could breach the Fibonacci Bearish Price Trigger Level near $21.

What happens if, suddenly, the US and global markets roll lower by 5% to 10% and a new wave of selling panics the markets?

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The answer is that the US and global markets will attempt to reach the most recent low price levels, or one of the deeper Fibonacci bearish target levels on these charts, and attempt to find support (or true market value) before attempting any move higher.  One must understand that until price shows us that it is capable of rallying above all-time highs, there is still a very real risk that another downside price move could take place.

These TRIGGER ZONES are key to understanding where the fragile balance in price is located on these symbols. As long as price stays above this zone, then continued bullish price action should be expected. If the price falls below this zone, then more downside price activity should be expected.

If you pay very close attention to almost all of these charts, you’ll notice that the next Fibonacci upside price targets (above the CYAN level) are well above the most recent all-time high levels.  This suggests that price will have to rally well above these all-time high levels to qualify the next bullish price target.  It could happen if the global markets recover much quicker than we expect and the earnings/GDP damage is minimal.  But given what we believe is really happening throughout the world right now, the downside targets seem more realistic outcomes (unless the US Fed and global banks absorb $40 to $50 Trillion in global risk assets over the next 60 days.

Watch how the markets react to these price levels and how the longer-term price pivots setup on these Weekly/Monthly charts.  The price will tell us where it wants to go.  We just have to be on the right side of the move so we don’t get slaughtered by a sudden price move.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Collapses Overnight On Supply Glut And Fractal Analysis Say $7 is Support

Crude Oil continues to be a big mover as the supply glut has really pushed global capacity to its limits. Dozens of full tanker ships are anchored off the California and Singapore coastlines waiting for demand to pick up.  As long as the Virus shutdown persists globally, the supply gut will continue to wreak havoc on oil price levels into Summer.  As of early Monday morning, Crude Oil is lower by -17% to $14.10 as I type.

What most readers of our articles here don’t fully grasp is just how accurate our long-term predictions truly are and its why we link to past research posts that clearly prove our analysis can be deadly accurate.

You may remember our incredible research post from July 2019 which suggested Crude Oil would collapse in early 2020 calling out a potential $14 price target.

You may also like to review our warning from January 2019 related to Oil and Energy. We also predicted the gold bullion breakout and bull market to happen last year in April, May, or June, which is it, and we called that six months prior. Eric Sprott talked about our gold prediction and how much he liked out analysis on his podcast back then.

Our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a support zone near $9 to $18 may become a new sideways trading zone for Crude Oil.  We believe the downside risk to price levels is still excessive, but we also believe that true price valuation levels will keep Oil above $4 ppb as global demand will eventually recover.  Thus, we believe Oil will likely settle into a sideways price range between $9 and $18 as this virus event continues.  It may attempt brief moves outside these ranges but eventually, settle back into this range until true demand begins to accelerate higher.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

DAILY CRUDE OIL CHART
ADAPTIVE FIBONACCI PRICE MODELING

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results and clearly shows the Support Zone.  We believe this Zone will become a new sideways price channel for Crude oil.

WEEKLY CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART – SUPPORT ZONE

This Weekly Crude Oil Price chart also highlights the Support Zone.  The potential for Crude prices to retest the $7 to $8 price range based on this massive supply glut is not out of the question.  We believe Crude Oil will settle into the Support Zone while attempting to establish a price bottom near $7 or $8 over the next 90+ days.  It may become an extended sideways bottom/flag formation as the bottom forms.

Our suggestion is to expect a more sideways bottom formation in Crude Oil over the next 60 to 90+ days.  The supply-side glut is really pushing price levels down to extreme levels.  Nothing will change that aspect of the market dynamic until we exit this Virus shut-down and demand starts to skyrocket higher.  That may come in August or later in the year.

We do believe Oil will attempt to find support above $7 to $8 ppb as we believe the supply glut will push oil prices to a “core value level” where global buyers will attempt to say “we can’t sell oil at anything less than $x.xx”.  We believe that level is $7 to $8 ppb overall.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part III

Our continued research into the state and status of the Real Estate market continues to point to a process that is starting to unfold in the US which may put price and activity levels at risk.  Within the past two segments of this research article, we’ve highlighted how market cycles and recent market data point to a Real Estate market that may be in the early stages of a downward price cycle.

Additionally, within Part II of this article, we highlighted the human psychological process of dealing with a crisis event which also suggests a deepening price contraction event may take place within the next 12 to 24+ months.

US NEW HOME SALES DATA WAS JUST RELEASED

We believe the psychological process is just starting to become evident in the current data.  For example, the US New Home Sales data was just released and it shows the sharpest decline in activity since June 2010 (nearly 14 months after the actual bottom in the US stock market in March 2009).


Source: https://www.investing.com

Our researcher team believes investors/traders and many consumers have become complacent with the current data and are simply in denial in attempting to relate future economic outcomes to the current set of circumstances.  There has never been anything like this to disrupt global economic activity and consumer engagement over the past 100+ years.  Not even the Great Depression or WWII was on this scale.

When you stop to consider the scale and scope of this COVID-19 virus event and the process of recovery, one should really ask serious questions about how quickly you believe the global economy will be able to recover to 2018/2019 economic activity levels, how quickly the world can create and sustain 25~75 million new jobs, and how quickly global nations can attempt to regain GDP output levels nearly equal to 2018/2019 levels?

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

IYR MONTHLY CHART

Take a look at this IYR Monthly chart, below.  The initial collapse in the markets in 2007 was the start of a similar type of economic and psychological crisis event.  Notice how IYR started to move lower in early 2007 – well before the real collapse in the US economy began in December 2008. Another aspect to consider is how long it took for IYR to recover back to near 2007 levels.  From the bottom in early 2009, it took nearly 6 years for IYR to reach levels above $80 again.

CASE-SHILLER US HOME PRICE INDEX CHART

This Case-Shiller US Home Price Index chart shows a similar setup taking place.  The peak in home price values on this chart happened in early 2006 – well before the peak on the IYR chart in early 2007.  The interesting component of this Case-Shiller chart is that real home price values didn’t bottom until early 2012 whereas the speculative traders pushed the bottom in IYR in mid-2009.  We believe the speculative side of investment and asset growth paired up near or after the 2011-12 time-frame where improved levels of economic growth and activity prompted real increased asset valuations in Real Estate.

Currently, using the Realtor.com Hotness Index (https://www.realtor.com/research/reports/hottest-markets/ ), we can see that data reported in December 2019 shows a moderate shift away from certain “hot” areas in larger market areas.  Pay attention to how the RED colors in 2018 have changed (in some areas) compared to Q1 2019 levels on these charts below.  We believe the continued shift towards a Real Estate recession is currently taking place and that these Hotness areas will suddenly cool very quickly as new data is published.

CALIFORNIA HOTNESS MAP

FLORIDA HOTNESS MAP

NEW YORK HOTNESS MAP

FRESH DATA RELEASED TODAY FROM REALTOR.COM

Fresh data released today from Realtor.com data (updated on 4/2/2020: https://www.realtor.com) suggests a peak in the housing market may be setting up.  Total active listings have declined steadily over the past 4+ years while median price levels have continued to climb.  This is a sign that the Real Estate market has been within a moderately tight “seller’s market” where buyers are competing for the best properties.  The Increase (Blue) to Decrease (Orange) data suggests that price levels tend to stabilize in Q4 of each year where sellers are unwilling to move away from their expected listing price.  Q1 through Q2 see dramatic increases in both levels of price alterations as the activity level tends to flatten out in the early portion of each year.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our conclusion from this data is that sellers may become increasingly desperate to reprice assets if a shift in the Real Estate market dynamics takes place as a result of the COVID-19 virus event. As of July 2019, price level decreases reached the highest levels over the past 4+ years reaching 30% of all total listings.  Currently, this ratio for March 2020 is at 21.8% and is certain to climb higher.

As the human process of dealing with this virus crisis event continues to take place, we are certain that asset values and expectations will shift as they have in the past.  Jobless numbers hit again today with another massive 4.42 million new jobless claims over the past week.  Take a look at the charts below to see just how dramatic this event is turning out to be for American workers.


Source: https://www.investing.com

Anyone expecting the Real Estate market to survive this massive virus event unscathed is simply not seeing the data as clearly as one should.  We believe once the data starts to breakdown to really show the contraction in activity, price, and expectations, then a new Real Estate recessionary trend will take place where real values will attempt to establish a true bottom.   Our belief is this process may take as long as 18+ months to really bottom out and the true bottom really depends on when consumers transition away from the fear and helplessness phases and start to become optimistic again.

I am hoping people can see what I am trying to warn about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak, and real estate will follow.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. Yesterday we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and our account is at another all-time high value. Exciting times for us technical traders!

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold on the Cusp of Reaching $2,100

Chris Vermeulen, CEO & Founder of Technical Traders Ltd., joins Tom Bodrovics at Palisade Radio to discuss the markets and Chris says, “This is the time to really be paying attention to the markets… It could be a bloodbath.”

Chris is seeing uncertainty that could bring equities lower as money is flowing into safe havens. The charts are showing that markets are approaching a major inflection point, which could go either way. Both gold and silver should rise rapidly once they get past resistance.

Time Stamp References:
0:45 – Equities and safe havens.
2:00 – Market weakness – bear rally?
4:45 – Charts show a coming inflection point.
9:20 – Charts testing support on gold.
10:20 – Silvers chart is still ugly.
12:15 – What happened in oil?
20:00 – Equities may top and rollover.

Talking Points From This Episode

  • Equity markets may have a limited upside.
  • If you don’t understand it, don’t buy it.
  • His bullish outlook for gold and silver.
  • Large caps are looking very good.

Chris Vermeulen is CEO & Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.

Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders around the world has taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.

Is Stock Market Volatility About to Spike Higher than March?

A very interesting setup is currently taking place in the VIX chart with our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system that has us quite concerned.  The Daily VIX chart running our Fibonacci Price Modeling system, which is one of our primary price modeling tools, is suggesting upside price targets for the VIX near 110, 134 and 158.  The reason these levels are extended into future price expectations is because of the recent explosion in volatility over the past 90 days.

Yet, the real concern originates from the question “what would it take for the VIX to rally to these levels and is this a real possibility in the current global markets?”.  So, we attempted to answer that question by attempting to identify what it would take for the VIX to skyrocket above 110 in the near future.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) DAILY CHART

First, pay attention to this VIX Daily chart and the targeted levels above 100.  Please understand that in order for the VIX to skyrocket higher reaching levels above 100 would require another massive downside price move in the US and global markets – something unexpected and very dramatic.  Is this an unrealistic expectation given the current global market environment headed into Q2 and Q3?  We really don’t believe it is an unrealistic potential expectation at this point.

We’ve recently authored a series of articles suggesting the global markets are marching through a human psychological process related to the virus event (crisis).  Somewhat similar to the “Grieving Process”, a crisis event prompts a similar set of human emotions ending in an angry and helpless feeling.  We believe this early stage crisis event process has positioned the global markets clearly within the Denial and Stigmatization phase of the crisis event. These are the Second and Third human responses to a major crisis event (Source: www.orau.gov/).

If we are correct and the markets are reacting to the Denial and Stigmatization phases of this virus event, then the next transitional phases are Fear and Withdrawal/Hopelessness.  Could this transition into a more fearful human instinct prompt a massive collapse in the US and global markets?  If so, what would be the cause of this transition into fear?

We believe the transition may come from the continued economic strain that is likely to become very evident in Q2 and Q3 of 2020.  Right now, the US stock market is only -10% to -15% from recent all-time highs.  The reality of the virus event for traders is that this is only a minor blip in the markets so far.  Yes, the markets fell much lower recently, but traders/investors have shrugged off the real risks and put their faith into the US Fed and global central banks to navigate a successful recovery.  What if that doesn’t happen as we expect?

What if the real numbers for Q2 and Q3 come in dramatically lower than expected?  What if global GDP contracts by -10% or -15% for the next 12+ months?  What if consumers don’t return as quickly as we expect?

The Race To Cash and Bonds Again: I talked with Cory Fleck from Korelin Economics Report today. Listen to our thoughts on the race to the safe-haven assets, bonds, and cash. What about gold and gold stocks? These have been more correlated to the US markets but the charts of the major stocks and gold are still very bullish.

CLICK TO HEAR OUR CONVERSATION

WEEKLY DOW (YM) CHART

Take a look at this Weekly YM Chart and pay attention to the downward sloping price channels that help guide us to a conclusion.  Additionally, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing us a new target near 12,475.  If this is accurate, then a breakdown in price over the next 6+ months may push the YM to levels near 12,500 (-50% from the recent peak in April 2020).  A move like this would certainly prompt a massive increase in the VIX and would frighten traders, investors, and consumers into a “helplessness” mentality.  What can you do when the markets are collapsing like this except wait for the bottom.

The one thing we can be certain of is that at long as humans exist on this planet, economies will continue to function at some level.  Being human in today’s world means we engage in economic activity and trade.  Therefore, we believe there is a moderate risk that the US and global markets have completely misinterpreted the true price valuations and expectations based on this research.  Simply put, we believe a Denial phase has taken root where investors and traders simply deny and ignore the real potential for future collapse.

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. Yesterday we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and our account is at another all-time high value. Exciting times for us technical traders!

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Must Watch Market Analysis Videos: Gold, Silver, S&P500, Oil

Here are a few of the best videos right now on where the financial markets are going next and how to trade them stress-free and with a trading plan.

This covers the S&P500, bonds, gold, silver, miners, natural gas, and crude oil

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL MARKET TOP

KILLER MARKET ANALYSIS ON PREDICTING PRICE THIS WEEK

HOW TO TRADE THE MARKETS, AND WHEN DO METALS GO BALLISTIC?

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Fed Induced Twilight-Zone

The past three weeks have been filled with intense drama, incredible highs and lows, political battles that continue to this day, and millions of questions from people throughout the world.  Throughout this COVID-19 virus event and the collapse of the US and global markets, one continued belief has prevailed – the US Fed will attempt to rescue the global markets (again).

Late last week, President Trump announced a task force to evaluate how and when to reopen the US economy and more than US nine states have already committed to a staged reopening process.  COVID-19 virus being what it is, the US is going to attempt to lead the way forward.  This means every resource and every effort will be taken to engage in a proper process to protect our future while battling this virus outbreak.

This was also a pivotal week for the US Stock market. With the US Fed in buying mode attempting to counter the recent weakness in the markets, literally trillions of dollars have poured into the US stock market over the past 5+ days.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 532 points (+2.2%).  The NASDAQ rallied 581.50 points (+7.06%). The S&P 500 rallied 89.25 (+3.2%).  Obviously, capital is pouring into the NASDAQ faster than the other major indexes and this suggests investors believe in the earnings and future capabilities of technology companies over more traditional market segments.

Continued global economic weakness and shuttered US states will have a chilling result on Q2 outcomes and revenue growth.  We continue to believe Q2 and Q3 of 2020 will be much weaker than investors are expecting and we believe the US Fed has lulled many investors into believing a “deep V bottom” is the most likely outcome.  Over time, we believe the loss of 20+ million working Americans and the destruction of the shuttered global economy will translate into much weaker global market price levels.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

NASDAQ (NQ) WEEKLY CHART

This NQ weekly chart highlights the real potential for downside risks.  The appreciation in price from the 2016 levels are a direct result of investor anticipation of growth after the 2016 election.  What’s changed is that a major risk to the markets has unraveled more than all the growth we’ve accumulated over the past 2+ years.  Investors should stop to consider the real economic outcome over the next 2+ years before jumping into the Fed-backed Twilight Zone.

As the total scope of the global economic environment continues to shift, it does make sense that certain technology companies may benefit from any type of extended virus event.  Gaming companies, technology suppliers and resellers, certain software companies and a host of streaming and content firms may gain users and incomes over the next 12+ months.  Yet, we continue to believe the COVID-19 virus event may continue to present risks in the markets going forward.

The NY Federal Reserve issues a GDP Nowcast which attempts to translate forward economic GDP outcomes in near-real-time.  The current level for Q1 2020 GDP is -0.4% and -7.9% for Q2 2020.  This suggests the second, and possibly third, quarters could be substantially weaker overall than what we’ve just experienced over the past 50+ days.    Even though the stock markets began to collapse on February 25, 2020 – we really didn’t begin to understand the total scope of the economic contraction until nearly the middle of March (very late in Q1).  Q2 may reflect the complete global economic burden of this virus event and we believe investors are failing to comprehend the total scope of this risk at the moment and how it relates to future earning capabilities.

Weakness in Q2 and possibly Q3 earnings for 2020 could have a shock-wave across many sectors of the US and global markets which we are somewhat blindly ignoring.  Asset values, belief in a “V” type bottom setup, lack of disruption for state and local governments and others seem to continue to be the prevailing attitude.  With the US Fed to the rescue, somehow investors seem to believe the recovery process will only take a few weeks or a few months.

We found this information very interesting in terms of how local governments generate revenues and how the virus event may present a very real 20 to 40% revenue contraction for state and local governments over the next 24+ months.  Based on this data, nearly 40 to 50% of annual revenue to state and local governments may be at risk.  When we consider the 20+ million people in the US that have recently filed for unemployment (nearly 6% of the total US population and 8% of the total working population), we can’t expect a stellar economic output.

S&P 500 (ES) MONTHLY CHART

This ES Monthly chart highlights our expectation that the US Stock market will attempt to establish a deeper bottom in price that may take the form of a FLAG formation setup.  We don’t believe the continued disruption to the global markets will do anything to support the past 3+ week recovery in the US markets.  Global investors will likely end up backing the US as the leader in this recovery, yet we believe the actual bottom in the markets will take place over the next 12+ months and likely complete just before the November 2020 elections.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our proprietary modeling systems have reflected the recent strength in the US stock market adequately – yet they have failed to result in any changes regarding allocation into the markets.  For right now, everything stays the same as it was.  We do believe the Fed’s buying will potentially prompt a “false trigger” if the rally continues.  We will assess the trigger when and if it happens in the near future.

Until we get a more accurate understanding of the risks, we feel it is much safer to assume the worst-case scenario going forward.  There is simply no way to paint a positive picture when people throughout the globe are losing their jobs, incomes, and all sense of normalcy.  The reality is that this disruption in the global banking and financial sector is certainly a big one that could last well into summer. If you read this article or watch the video you will understand the magnitude of this market top that looks to be forming.

As of right now, skilled investors are preparing for a potentially deeper price bottom and watching what is happening in the markets with interest – waiting for the right trigger to jump on the next big trend.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.