Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September. We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.
Our original research posts to review :
June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE
June 25, 2019: NATURAL GAS SETS UP BOTTOM PATTERN
Our research tools suggest that September has a 65% probability of rallying more than 6x the historical range. This would suggest a rally potential of more than $2 exists in September for Natural Gas. Our tools also suggest that October has a 75% probability of rallying more than 3.2x the historical range. This would suggest a potential rally of more than $1.20 in October.
Combine those potential moves and probabilities over a 60-day span and we are talking about a $2.50 to $3.50 potential price rally with a 70%+ historical probability of success. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter.
Daily Natural Gas Chart
This Daily Natural Gas Chart highlights the price rotation as price continued to base below the $2.40 level. We’ve also highlighted the basing range as a blue rectangle on this chart. We expect the upside move to begin in early September and to continue to rally towards the $2.75 level before finding initial resistance. It is very likely that this rally will build momentum as we end October and start into September. It will not be “straight up” as we have drawn on this chart.
Weekly Natural Gas chart
This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights our longer-term expectations for the price rally. The initial move will likely end just below $3.00 (likely in the $2.75 to $2.95 range). After that level is reached, we expect a bit of resistance as price rotates near the Bullish Fibonacci Price Trigger Level, then rallies beyond it to target levels above $3.65. Once price moves above $3.50, we could experience a price spike as we had in 2018 where price reached as high as $5.00 in Natural Gas. Skilled technical traders could play this move for incredible profits if they time their entries and exits well.
UGAZ 3x Long Natural Gas ETF Chart
We believe most skilled technical traders that want to avoid massive leveraged risks should consider trading UGAZ – the 3x Long Natural Gas ETF. Yes, risks still exist in this trade as any further downside price rotation before a rally begins could present a moderate degree of loss. Yet, we believe the upside potential for the rally and the historical data supporting the very strong probability for an upside price rally outweighs the risks at this time. Support near $11 would be our ultimate downside price risk. Any entry below $14 would be acceptable given the current setup and expectations. Immediate upside expectations are for price to move towards the $18 level, then pause before moving even higher towards the $22 to $24 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Remember, we called this move over 60 days ago and are alerting you to the very real possibility that the basing pattern is complete. We expect the upside price rally to begin very early in September at this point and the timing of this trade seems perfectly aligned with our historical price modeling systems and other predictive modeling tools.
This could be one of the best short term trades going into the end of 2019. You won’t want to miss this one.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/130.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-27 10:33:262019-08-27 10:33:26Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed?
This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us). You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us. We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019. Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
This incredible research targeted the $1600+ level by September/November 2019. We are only about $70 away from that level right now and we have new ADL research to share with all of our followers.
If you are a fan of our research or you can understand the value of the ADL predictive modeling system and what we have highlighted for our followers – you already know that any future ADL predictions for precious metals should be of particular interest to all of you. What are metals going to do over the next few months and how can you prepare for this move, let us help you try to prepare for this next move.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
This Gold Monthly chat highlighting the ADL predictive modeling system results shows why gold traders need to be patient and wait for the next setup. That setup exists over the next 30 days as the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that Gold will attempt a downside price rotation to levels near $1490 before attempting another rally back above $1600. This is the next proper price rotation setup that traders need to look for. The second setup occurs in Jan/Feb 2020 where the price is expected to rotate from above $1600 to levels near $1540 before launching into another big rally to levels above $1870.
The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is one of the most incredible price modeling tools we use in our research. We’ve just shown you what our research tools believe Gold will do over the next 14+ months. We believe we are helping more traders and investors by proving our incredible research tools work better than any other technology solutions available in the market right now and are proving it by posting these types of charts many months before price can attempt to prove or disprove our research.
Now, one of the biggest moves is going to be in Silver and we’ve all been waiting for the incredible reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio. It is at that point when Silver begins to rally faster than Gold is rallying that we will see a true reversion in the Gold/Silver ratio. That event will result in an incredible rally in silver that could push the price of silver above $35 to $40 per ounce – or higher.
Our ADL predictive modeling system running on a Quarterly Silver chart highlights the opportunity that still exists for metals traders. Silver will continue to rally as Gold rolls higher. Silver will continue to rally to levels just below $20 over the next 8+months. The big breakout to the upside starts to take place Q3 2020. That move will push Silver prices to levels above $20 where a brief rotation will take place. By Q1 2021, the price of silver will be rallying extensively and the cat will be out of the bag in terms of what or why the metals are skyrocketing.
These moves in precious metals are going to be once of the most incredible opportunities for investors. There will be other swings in market sectors and major global market indexes as well. This is the time for all traders/investors to take advantage of the resources that are available to learn to take advantage of these setups. Our research team continues to deliver some of the most incredible research and predictive modeling results anyone has ever seen. If you can not see the value of being able to see 14 to 24 months into the future.
We urge you to consider finding resources and a team of researchers that can assist you over the next 12+ months as the moves in the global markets are going to be incredibly large and varied. Now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities and to find the right partners to assist you in finding the right trades.
CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/112.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-26 14:48:442019-08-26 14:48:44Precious Metals ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move
As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward.
Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/global-central-banks-move-to-keep-the-party-rolling-onward/
The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”. Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect. We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.
Much of the capital that was dumped into the markets was deployed into the global equity markets as investments in emerging markets, capital markets, and the US stock market. As much as everyone wants to think this capital went into infrastructure and other essential investments, much of it went into the only thing that was capable of generating an easy return with limited risk – the global stock market.
At first, after 2008, we saw an immediate jump in emerging markets. This sector of the global economy had been hard hit by the collapse in 2008-09 and an incredible opportunity existed because of a price anomaly that was created near the bottom in 2009. Emerging markets were recipients of some capital when the central banks began to infuse money into the system, but their equity markets were uniquely positioned for advancements because of the pricing levels after the crash.
The SPEM chart below highlights the recovery in the emerging market that took place almost immediately after the bottom formed in 2009. We can clearly see the immediate price advance and the resulting sideways price action after 2011. Once this sector recovered up to previous 2007 levels, there was really nothing else to push it much higher.
Traders should also take notice of the rally in 2016 and 2017. This rally was based on forward expectations that renewed interest in emerging markets would result in increased returns. These aligned with expectations resulting from the US Presidential election (2016) as well. This price advance consisted of a +86% price advance from $23 to $42. Could it happen again?
We believe the next phase of the global market recovery will result in a similar type of price advance after new lows are established in emerging markets. Skilled technical traders should continue to plan for and prepare for this type of setup once emerging markets complete a process of exploring lower lows to form a bottom. This process should complete just before the 2020 US presidential elections and will likely result in another price anomaly setup where the price is well below expected asset levels (extreme pessimism) and will set up as an incredible +40% to +80% upside potential as renewed optimism and the continued transitional process of the global economy persists. Traders just need to wait for the setup – then execute their trades.
The continued process of how capital rolls from one environment to another in search of returns is something we have attempted to explain in detail over the past months. We call it the “capital shift” process. Our belief is that capital (cash) is always hunting for suitable investments in various forms and continues to shift from one environment (market segment) to another as opportunities (ROI) and risks (healthy investment environments) change. So, think of capital as a migratory asset that continues to shift into and out of various segments of the market as opportunities and risks present themselves.
One of the biggest benefactors of the quantitative easing and central bank policies of the past 10+ years has been the US equity market. Take a look at this NAS100 chart to see what we mean.
When we take into consideration the post 9/11 market rally in this NAS100 chart (highlighted by the blue rectangle) we can see that, at that time, the capital was focused away from the US markets because other foreign markets were better positioned in terms of ROI and risk. Even though the US was engaging in moderate QE processes to recover from a moderate economic crisis, a price advance in the NAS100 was muted – nothing like the right side of this chart.
The post-2009 advance in the NAS100 is a completely different story. The technology sector in the US had shifted away from a heavy risk factor and into a “unicorn” mode by 2012/2013. This shift in the investment environment meant that global traders saw the US technology market (NAS100) and an excellent opportunity for capital deployment. As more and more cash poured into the NAS100 chasing these gains, prices continued to skyrocket higher. What next?
Unless the dynamics of this market shift away from expected gains or the US Dollar weakens dramatically, we believe the US stock market will continue to experience some volatility and continued price advancement while capital waits to see what happens throughout the rest of the global market.
We do believe the increased volatility of the past 2 years highlights an extended risk for rotation over the next 2+ years and we believe a move lower may be something we have to prepare for as the 6000 level has already been established as support. Therefore, we are not suggesting the NAS100 will go straight up from here. We are suggesting that unless something dramatic happens to change the economic environment, the US markets will continue to be viewed as opportunistic by global investors and that dips in price, even big ones, will likely respond with a nearly immediate recovery in price – even if a dip were to happen well below the 6000 level.
Once the economic environment shifts away from opportunity in the US, then all bets are off in terms of downside risk – if this ever happens.
Another factor that everyone must be aware of is Real Estate. Recently, US real estate has continued to rally as rates have continued to maintain some level of affordability throughout most of the US. Certain areas have gotten very un-affordable and these markets are already experiencing a pricing reversion where prices are declining as sellers attempt to attract buyers at high prices. Overall, though, the health of the US real estate market is still moderately strong.
One thing that we would be concerned about is a perceptional shift away from buying if the US Fed and global central banks engage in new stimulus processes. Consumers may view this process as a warning that some concern is underlying the efforts of the central banks and hold off on buying real estate while they wait to see what happens after the US 2020 elections. We believe this may already be happening right now.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The REZ real estate ETF continues to push higher as pricing becomes an issue and sales levels continue to support a fairly active market. We are concerned that a sharp change in perception could be taking place over the next 12+ months as fears of a change in US political leadership may thwart or diminish some forward expectations. Investors need to pay attention to all aspects of the markets in order to prepare for future opportunities and price moves.
In Part III of this article, we’ll look into some of the fundamental elements of the US and global economies and how the past actions of the US Fed and global central banks may have set up the global markets for the bigger price rotations we are expecting over the next 12 to 24+ months.
Also, takes a look at today’s charts compared to the 2008 market top and I can’t warn enough that the next financial crisis (bear market) is scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION
TO PREMIUM TRADE SIGNALS!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/21.png544850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-13 10:26:432019-08-13 10:26:43Part II – Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again
The recent news that the US Fed, China and many of the global central banks are continuing to make efforts to lower rates and spark further consumer spending and economic activity is reminiscent of the late 2010~2013 global economic recovery efforts. This was a time when the economy was much slower than current levels and when central banks were doing everything possible to attempt to raise consumer and business activity related to capital.
The world’s governments and banks operate on a very simple premise – transactions and economic activity must continue to operate within a fairly standard range of consistency in order for tax revenues and transactional fees to drive profits/income. If extended periods of economic contraction persist, the capacity to function within standard operating parameters diminishes very quickly for these institutions. A -5% to -10% contraction in asset values, transactional business, tax revenues and/or consumer activity over an extended period of time could result in a catastrophic set of events taking place.
All the credit issues and interest rate changes recently allowed us to profit from collapse in the stock market and rally in metals for a quick 24.16% profit last week.
The 2008-09 global credit market collapse
In the 2008-09 global credit market collapse, we witnessed an event that accelerated well beyond this -10% contraction very quickly. We believe the reason the US Fed and Global Central Banks are engaging in stimulus that is designed to attempt to spark further lending, borrowing and increased consumer activities to prompt another round of expansion within the global economy. We believe these efforts to support global asset prices and transactional processes and fees may end up supporting a process where many central banks and governments may end up paying consumers to borrow (negative interest rates) and pay consumers to continue engaging in economic activities.
Historically, central bank rates have never been this low in recent history and recent news that global central banks may continue to lower interest rates, ease monetary policy and introduce new stimulus programs suggests that concerns of a global market recession are real and that concerns the global consumer may contract economic activity and spending are real. Yet, is the answer to this problem related to real lending rates or something else?
Countries where risks are excessively higher rates
It appears from our research that the only countries that are capable of operating at rates that are closer to normal are countries where risks are excessive and rates are higher because they need to attract investment into their debt/bonds. Established markets appear to be operating in a mode where lending rates are not conducive to traditional economic mechanisms of spending, saving, investing and rational accounting fundamental. The closest example we can use to attempt to explain this process is to state that we believe the credit markets never fully recovered after the 2008-09 credit market collapse and the new debt created from that event has, as of yet, failed to prompt any real economic expansion.
We believe the global economy is within a transitional process that will result in a longer-term economic expansion – yet we believe the process of achieving this expansion may require the destruction of certain aspects of the current economic system. The chart below highlights the efforts from 2003 through early 2019 of global banks to stimulate and stabilize the global economy with every tool available.
As difficult as it is to see in this image, global central banks have engaged in various efforts, at various times, to enact a concerted effort to stimulated the global economy, then back away from stimulus to evaluate the individual processes of the global economy and its ability to support itself. Each rise in QE activity is marked with new challenges and new efforts to spark economic activity. We believe one of the main challenges of this policy is that QE efforts may have benefited the wrong segment of the global population at the time and further eroded the intended outcome of these efforts.
Throughout this incredible global effort to stimulate and stabilize the global economy, certain facets of the global economy have reacted positively while others have reacted negatively. Obviously, the benefits and failures of this continuing effort to transition through the recent economic malaise have resulted in a number of various advancements and declines over the years. It is rather interesting how capital has shifted into and out of various markets, segments, commodities and other forms in an effort to chase opportunity and returns while it appears the fundamental components of the global economy are still somewhat weak.
Next, in Part II of this article, we’ll take a look at some of the winners and losers over the past 10 to 20+ years as a series of global economic events continue to roil the global markets and we’ll discuss what we believe may become the final transitional phase of this global event.
MORE WARNING SIGNS AND TRADES TO BE AWARE OF: GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/11.jpg488678adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-12 23:22:072019-08-12 23:22:07Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward
Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing. Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55. Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President Trump was elected on November 2016, yet has recently fallen as trade and global economic concerns become more intense.
This should be viewed as a strong warning sign that institutional traders and investors are very concerned that the future economic and manufacturing activities throughout the world are continuing to contract. Copper is used in various forms throughout all types of manufacturing and consumer products, such as computers, building & infrastructure, electronics, chemical & medical use as well as automobile and aircraft manufacturing. It makes sense that copper prices would be a leading indicator for much of the global economy and relate to economic output and capacity.
Copper Monthly Long Term Chart
As the US/China trade war continues and we enter the final stretch of the US Presidential election cycle, we believe that copper will breakdown below the $2.50 level and attempt to identify past support levels below slightly $1.50 over the next 6 to 12+ months. We believe the next big move in commodities will be a contraction move where certain commodities (mostly manufacturing & industrial related) will collapse as the world focuses on two of the most important events that are about to conclude in 16+ months: the US Presidential elections and the Global Trade/Economic issues.
Copper Monthly Pennant Pattern
The breakdown in commodity prices as related to slower expectations and global economic demand may see a dramatic downside move or may see a more measured “slide” towards the $1.45 level (much like what we saw happen between 2013 and 2016). Overall, though, we believe the downside price move outweighs the upside at this time – unless some type of dramatic resolution to the US/China trade issues and global economic slowdown are ended.
We’ve also highlighted an extended long-term Pennant/Flag formation in Copper that should provide further insight as to the range of price rotation before the bigger breakdown in price occurs. This pennant formation will likely contain the immediate price range/rotation over the next few months to between $2.30 to $3.00. Should price break below the $2.25 level within the next 2~6+ months, then we would expect an immediate downside move towards the $1.50 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets. Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations. We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.
These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders. You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present. In fact, last week we closed out 24.16% in profits for the first week of August and you can see the charts here.
Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets. Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas, and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations. We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.
These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders. You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present.
Recently warning that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1.png328850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-12 23:01:542019-08-12 23:01:54All Eyes On Copper
In the first part of this multi-part research post, we highlighted what we are calling a Crazy Ivan price event (borrowed from the movie Red October – (source). The one thing we want you to take away from this article is that August 19, 2019, should be a major price inflection date where the price is very likely to begin a new downside price trend in the US and global stock markets. This will likely push commodity prices to extremes and may very well push Gold and Silver into the stratosphere as fear and greed take hold across the planet.
Part I we highlighted how the VIX and the NQ are set up to react to this Crazy Ivan pricing event and how we believe many traders/investors are simply unaware of the potential for this type of large reversion price move. We want to be clear, we believe the US markets will be somewhat immune from extended downside risks. This does not mean there won’t be a downside price move and this does not mean that the markets won’t experience the Crazy Ivan reversion trend. It will likely happen just as we are expecting, yet we believe the US stock markets will quickly recover from this move – like it has done many times in the past.
Our research that highlighted this August 19, 2019 date and the potential for what we are calling the Crazy Ivan price move is rooted in our super-cycle analysis, predictive modeling tools, and other specialized proprietary price modeling solutions and utilities. We believe we’ve identified a key inflection point/date that will start what we are calling a “breakdown move” which will lead to the Crazy Ivan event throughout the globe. As we stated in the first part of this article – we don’t know the exact composition of this event yet, but we do know that is should begin to happen near or after August 19, 2019.
Now, let’s get busy digging into the Gold and Silver charts for all our followers.
Gold 2-Week Chart Interval
This first Gold 2-Week chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool and helps to show us where the price is targeting for the initial upside move from the April 21~24 Momentum Base pattern that we called back in January 2019. We believe the current breakout upside price move will initially target the $1597 level before briefly stalling, then rallying further to target the $1785 level or higher.
We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push Gold much higher than our projected levels under certain circumstances:A. The US Dollar weakens throughout the initial process of the Crazy Ivan event
B. Cryptos collapse as governments clamp down on rogue exchanges/currencies
C. Massive credit and debt issues arise in China, Asia or the EU that threaten future economic output and operations
D. Some type of crisis event unfolds where global investors believe war or conflict is imminent. (think Hong Kong, North Korea or somewhere in that general vicinity).
Without these additional impetuses in the metals market, we believe the price will follow our Crazy Ivan expectations (YELLOW LINES, below) fairly closely over the next 30 to 60+ days.
Silver Daily Chart Interval
Silver, on the other hand, is set up to break substantially higher based on the upside move we expect in Gold and the possibility that the Gold/Silver ratio will continue to contract to lower levels. Recently, the Gold/Silver ratio fell from approximately 93 to 86. This move relates the total number of ounces of Silver one must buy to equal the price of one ounce of Gold. Currently, this level is back up to 89.5 as Gold has rallied faster than Silver has rallied.
But what happens when traders catch onto the fact that Gold and Silver will rally as this Crazy Ivan event takes place and that Silver is the true undervalued metal across the planet? At the peak of Gold/Silver prices near April 2011, the Gold/Silver ratio was resting near 32 (yes you read that properly). What would that look like on the Silver chart, below, if Gold continued to rally to levels above $2000? It is really simple to find out.
$2000 (Gold per ounce) / 32 = $62.50 per ounce for Silver
What if Gold rallied a full 100% Fibonacci measured move from the previous 1999-2011 rally? That peak level would be $2700 in Gold and the calculation is still simple.
$2700 (estimate Gold peak) / 32 = $84.375 per ounce for Silver.
Could it happen like this? Yes, in theory, and reality it really could happen that Gold rallies to a level that equals a full 100% Fibonacci price extension and the ratio level falls to levels near 32. If that were to happen, then these calculations would be accurate.
This is why we believe the Crazy Ivan event will become the catalyst for some really incredible trading opportunities and big price swings over the next 6 to 13+ months.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Our $21 upside price target in Silver is really muted compared to our long term price projections. Yet everything hinges on this August 19, 2019 breakdown cycle date and what happens after that. Our research suggests this current downside price move may have been a volatility explosion related to the lack of liquidity in the global markets and to hint that the markets are capable of being far more irrational for far longer than anyone expects.
We are only 9 days into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.
We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures. This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/121.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-10 01:04:352019-08-10 01:04:35Part II – Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan”
I hope this weeks sell-off and rally whipsaw didn’t catch you off guard? Subscribers of TheTechnicalTraders Wealth Building Newsletter pocketed a whopping 24.16% return this week with three positions (SDS, UGLD & SIL).
Anyways, on Wednesday I sent you a reminder that I will be adding my short term trading signal software signals to my newsletter like the ones listed above and once I add these I will be raising the newsletter price.
My ETF Trading Newsletter is available with up to a 30% discount plus I am giving away a free silver or gold bars for select membership levels which could be worth a lot of money a year or two from now and pay for most of the newsletter. I just wanted to let you know this lower rate and offer will end soon so this will be your LAST CHANCE to get on board and test drive an ETF trading service that truly makes money for its subscribers and teaches you at the same time!
Summer is coming to an end which means it’s time to prepare for a strong fourth quarter in trading. The Wealth Building ETF trading and education program has been navigating its members through the market with precision for many years.
In fact, we just broke the 100% return
on our entire portfolio since Jan 2018.
The focus is on US-based exchange traded funds but if you live in Canada or overseas you can use our trades one similar ETFs for your own exchanges and make similar returns!
In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Chris Vermeulen the founder and editor of the Wealth Building Newsletter to make navigating the financial market as easy as it gets. I provide simple low-risk ETF trading analysis sharing all of my trades ideas with the subscribers. You start the day knowing exactly what type of volatility to expect in the coming session and where the key support and resistance levels are for the key underlying asset type being the Dollar, Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and S&P 500.
If you have a smaller trading account this is the perfect service for you because of the scalability which ETF’s provide. Be sure to check out my website www.TheTechnicalTraders.com because he has a killer offer to become an exclusive member before this Friday.
As we head towards the fourth quarter I have a few great trade ideas queued up. Overall it looks like 2019 will continue to be another banner year for the newsletter!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/115.png435640adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-10 00:39:252019-08-10 00:39:25Up over 24.16% in Gains this month and its only Aug 8th Sent Thursday, August 8, 2019
We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”. We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.
Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event. It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event. We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues. God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.
Please review these earlier research posts for more information :
July 24, 2019: PART II – BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED
July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET
July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION – ARE YOU READY?
July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS
Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen. Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let’s focus on the “Crazy Ivan” event and how we can attempt to profit from it.
First, let’s take a look at the VIX chart. The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase. The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets – so this is expected. What is not expected is the August 19th price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets. We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond.
If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion. This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible “price anomaly” for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits.
We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 – although we can’t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities. All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months. So here it is – the Crazy Ivan (as we’re calling it).
Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations. The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart :
Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ
The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ.
What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart? How about a move to above 42 on the VIX? Hello Crazy Ivan.
This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work. This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies). Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at. Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up. This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels.
We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019.
You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020. If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020. Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In the second part of this article, we’ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out. You won’t want to miss this one.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/110.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-10 00:10:492019-08-10 00:10:49Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” – Part I
Larry Jacobs the owner of TradersWorld magazine which is the best publication for technical analysis and technical trading featured a great article on the where the stock market is as of today, and how this exact setup in price is what we experienced in 2008 JUST before the big crash.
Download the magazine here free and skip to page 7 which is the first article and give it a quick read, it’s packed with incredible insight for what is next, not only for the US stock market but gold, silver and miners also.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/105.png447345adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-09 23:52:142019-08-09 23:52:14Lead Story in TradersWorld Magazine – Free and A Must Read pg 7
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins Cory Fleck today to share his thoughts on the recent downtrend in US markets and oil, plus a couple of comments on the gold uptrend. Long term trends are still the most important and until a larger break happens the trend is still higher. more importantly, the gold uptrend seems to just be beginning.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/audio-image.jpg10001000adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-09 10:10:212019-08-09 10:10:21A LOOK AT THE DOWNTREND IN US MARKETS AND OIL, AND THE UPTREND IN GOLD
