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Energy Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65 ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$0.33 to -$0.86.  Averages to the downside: -3.65 to +3.08
January: Generally lower by -$4.57 to -$6.72.  Averages to the downside: -2.68 to +2.27
February: Generally higher by +$8.41 to +13.73.  Averages to the upside +3.07 to -2.54
March: Generally higher by +7.33 to +$15.62.  Averages to the upside by +2.84 to -2.14

Over the past 25 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Natural Gas is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$2.34 to -$5.26.  Averages to the downside: -0.81 to +0.69
January: Generally lower by -$5.14 to -$7.97.  Averages to the downside: -0.69 to +0.45
February: Generally lower by -$1.48 to -$3.62.  Averages to the downside -0.50 to +0.49
March: Generally higher by +0.63 to +$1.88.  Averages to the upside by +0.41 to -0.70

Over the past 35 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Heating Oil is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$0.16 to -$0.37.  Averages to the downside: -0.14 to +0.09
January: Generally lower by -$0.52 to -$0.96.  Averages to the downside: -0.09 to +0.10
February: Generally higher by +$0.48 to +$1.06.  Averages to the upside +0.11 to -0.08
March: Generally higher by +0.03 to +$0.11.  Averages to the upside by +0.09 to -0.10

This data suggests an extended Winter in the US may prompt further contraction in certain segments of the energy sector that may prompt an exaggerated downside price move in Crude Oil and Natural Gas.  Heating Oil may rise a bit if the cold weather continues well past March/April 2019.

Conversely, if an early spring sets up in the US, then Crude Oil may begin to base a bit as people begin to traveling more, but Heating Oil and Natural Gas may decline as cold weather demands abate.

Heating Oil has almost mirrored Crude Oil in price action recently.  Our modeling systems are suggesting that Crude Oil may attempt to move below $40 ppb.  This move would be a result of a number of factors – mostly slowing global demand and a shift to electric vehicles.  We authored this research post early in January 2020 – please review it.

January 8, 2020: IS THE ENERGY SECTOR SETTING UP ANOTHER GREAT ENTRY?

We believe any price level below $40 in ERY is setting up for a very strong basing level going forward.  We have identified two “pullback zones”.  The first is what we call the “Deep Pullback Zone”.  The second is what we call the “Deeper Pullback Zone”.  Any upside price move from below $40 to recent upside target levels (above $50) would represent a 25%+ price rotation.

Historically, February is a very strong month for ERY.  The data going back over the past 12 years suggests February produces substantially higher upside price gains (+1899.30 to -394.28) – translating into a 4.8:1 upside price ratio over 12 years.  Both January and March reflect overall price weakness in ERY over the past 12 years.  Thus, the real opportunity is the setup of the “February price advance”.

We believe any opportunity to take advantage of this historical technical price pattern is advantageous for skilled traders/investors.

This is a pure technical pattern based on price bar data mining.  This is something you may not have ever considered unless you had the tools to search for historical price anomalies and rotation patterns.  We have created a suite of tools and price modeling systems we use to help our members find incredible opportunities – this being one of them.

Get ready, February will likely prompt a very nice rally in ERY if historical price triggers confirm future price activity.  The price pattern in February suggests a large upside price move is likely in ERY and we believe these low price basing patterns are an excellent opportunity for skilled traders.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally And What is Next

Certain precious metals, Gold, Silver, and Platinum, have shown moderate upside price trending over the past 20+ months while Rhodium and Palladium have skyrocketed higher.  These more precious metals, Rhodium and Palladium, have many industrial and consumer uses.  Rhodium is used in electronics and plating and Palladium is used in a variety of consumer products from Automobiles to Medical Devices.

Still, the rally in Rhodium (over 300%) and Palladium (over 70%) over the past 12 months has been more than impressive.  Whey are we not seeing a similar rally in Gold, Silver, and Platinum yet?

The reality is that we are seeing a similar price rally in Rhodium and Platinum as we saw in 2004~2008 – just prior to the Global Credit Crisis.  Take a look at the composite chart below.

There are few interesting components of these charts that show how precious metals reacted throughout the 1997~2000 rally and the 2005~2008 rally – both of these events set up a bubble burst reversion event.

_  Rhodium rallied extensively in 2005 through 2008 – peaking at levels near $10,000 just before the credit crisis bubble burst.

_  Palladium rallied a moderate amount in 2005 through 2007, then sold off as the bubble burst.  Then rallied to over $800 after fear set into the markets.

_  Platinum began a rally in early 2000 that propelled it to a peak in 2007 (just before the peak in the US stock market).  Since then wild price rotation and a moderate reversion to levels near $1000 have set up a massive basing pattern.

_  Gold, like Platinum, began an incredible upside price rally in early 2000 and continued to rally till the peak in 2010

_  Palladium, being an industrial use metal and being deployed in a variety of advanced technology, would tend to rally as demand for technology products and consumer products associated with Palladium components are in very high demand.  Much like what happened in 1998~2000.

_  Rhodium’s rally is very likely related to manufacturing and institutional demand across the globe.

_  Platinum and Gold may be set up for an incredible upside price rally should Rhodium and Palladium extend their rallies even further.

_  We find it incredibly fascinating that Rhodium rallied nearly 1000% from 2004 to 2009 – just before the peak in the global stock markets and the start of the Global Credit Crisis.

_  We also find it incredibly interesting that Palladium rallied over 1000% from 1995 to 1999 – just before the DOT COM bubble burst.

_  We believe the rallies in Rhodium and Palladium are early warning signs that can’t be overlooked by skilled traders/investors.

The recent upside breakout of Platinum falls into the same category as the late 1998 Platinum rally as the valuations of the DOT COM rally began to overextend.  We believe this shift into high-value risk protection began to take place as investor’s fear levels increased in the late 1990s.  As we suggested recently – a shifting of the undercurrents in the markets.

The current rally above $1000 in Platinum suggests a new upside price rally is taking place after an extensive basing pattern (2015 to now).  Should Platinum rally above $1200 per ounce, a new technical bullish trend will be confirmed.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting price targets on the Weekly chart of $1090, $1130 and $1215.  Pay very close attention to this rally in Platinum as it could become the catalyst for a much bigger move in many of the major precious metals.  The Platinum rally in 1997 began an upward price advance of nearly 600% over the next 10 years.  A similar move today would put Platinum near $6000~$7000 – Gold would be near $3200+ should this happen.

Our belief is that the rally in Platinum will continue as valuations in the global markets push higher.  Fear is creeping back into the markets as investors are expecting some type of price reversion event.  We believe the current setup is very similar to a mix of the events we’ve highlighted in the composite metals chart, above.  A mix of what happened in 1995~1997 and a mix of what happened in 2005~2007.  Platinum and Gold are acting very similar to what happened in 1995~1997.  Palladium and Rhodium are a mix of 1995~1997 and 2005~2007.  Overall, the rallies in Rhodium and Palladium are strangely similar to “peak everything” bubbles.

Watch how this plays out over the next 12+ months.  Gold and Silver should begin to move higher as Platinum extends the rally.  Fear is starting to re-enter the markets as traders and investors extend their belief that a reversion event is setting up.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market

Even as we write this post, the US Stock Market continues to push higher as global traders and investors pour capital into the continued US rally.  The strong US Dollar continued to attract capital from around the globe and with fresh earning about to hit from Q4 2019, investors are expecting another round of solid income and earnings growth.

Yet, underlying all of this is the undercurrent of shifting capital into safe-havens like precious metals, Cryptos, and under-valued foreign markets.  This shift started to happen late in Q4 2019 and accelerated early in 2019.

HYG – HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BONDS DAILY CHART

One of our favorite measures of extreme bullishness is the scope of capital/trend pouring into High Yield Corporate Bonds.  This chart below highlights the scale of the rallies that take place before a price reversion event.  You’ll notice that each rally in HYG is nearly identical in size – and that each rally is followed by a fairly deep price reversion event.

The likelihood of some surprise earnings collapse from Q4 2019 is somewhat muted.  Other than the retail sector reporting some missed earnings expectations related to Christmas 2019, generally most market sectors should report earnings and growth near an average 2% to 3% growth expectation annually.

Still, with Rhodium, Platinum and Palladium rallying extensively and Gold and Silver recently setting up an upside breakout pattern (see our recent Gold and Silver research), we believe undercurrents are already at play in the markets where skilled traders are preparing for a price reversion event – attempting to mitigate risk.

Over the past 20 years, the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL has been positive in January by a ratio of 1.2:1.  In other words, the odds of a positive January for the DOW is near 60%.  The average upside price advance in January for the DOW is a little over 600 points.  As of right now, the DOW has advanced a bit over 525 points since the end of 2019.  We believe the undercurrent trends may result in a moderate price reversion event if our analysis is correct.

We’ll wait to see what happens with earnings data and other news, yet our proprietary technical price modeling systems are suggesting a reversion/rotation event should happen fairly early in 2020.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part 2

This, the second part of our Silver research article suggesting Silver may be forming a massive price base in preparation for an explosive upside move, will continue from Part I of this research series.

Our research team believes Silver is setting up in a price pattern that may already be “ripe” for an explosive upside move.  Our researchers have poured over the data and believe the disparity between Gold and Silver is already at excessive levels.

Historically, anytime the disparity between Gold prices and Silver prices (rationalized into comparative Gold price levels) breaches 30% to 60% and Gold begins an upside price advance, Silver typically begins to move higher with 4 to 8+ months.  This setup pushes the Gold to Silver ratio back below 50 or 60 as Silver rallies substantially higher, and faster than the price of Gold.

Comparatively, Silver continues to trade within a sideways price range after basing in early 2016.  This price range has been fairly consistent between $14.50 and $21.0.  With Gold recently starting to move higher because of the US/Iran military conflict, this raises an early warning flag for our research team because Silver has continued to trade below $18 – and well below recent highs near $20.

The price disparity between Gold and Silver is currently greater than 200% based on our proprietary modeling system.  Remember, anytime this disparity level is greater than 30% to 60% and Gold breaks out in a rally, Silver will break to the upside within just a few months.

The second stage rally in Silver, the real money-maker, will come when investors pile into Silver and Silver Miners as the breakout in Silver becomes explosive.  The time to get into this trade is/was now or 4 months ago.  Still, there is plenty of opportunity for skilled traders right now because the breakout move in Silver and Silver Miners has not really begun yet.

The first big upside move in Silver and Miners will be to attempt to move higher and target recent resistance.  Resistance in Silver is currently near $19.70 and $21.00.  This means any move above $19.75 (or higher) where the price of Silver fails to move above $22 or $23 would constitute a “Stage 1 Base Advancement”.

After this move is complete, a “Breakout Stage” price move will take place.  This may be where Silver prices advance from the $21 to $23 level up towards the $28 to $32 price level.  This upside price advance breaches the Stage 1 resistance and attempts to establish new support for a continued Stage 2 advance.

Remember, the current disparity level is just over 200% between Gold and Silver.  If Gold continues to rally higher and Silver attempts to break higher, attempting to narrow the disparity level, then Silver will (at some point) enter a near parabolic upside price move above $36 to $40.  Our researchers believe this may happen before June or July 2020.

This incredible opportunity is currently setting up for skilled traders.  Believe it or not, while Silver continues to trade below $18 per ounce and global investors are focusing on US stocks, Emerging Markets, and Gold, Palladium and others, this setup in Silver may become the biggest investment opportunity of 2020.  Sure, Gold may rally 80% to 140% over the next 12 to 24 months.  Palladium may rally even higher.  If Silver does what we expect it to do once this setup/trigger really breaks open, Silver could rally 500%+ over 12 to 24+ months on an incredible upside disparity reversion move.

This last chart highlights why we believe this setup in Silver should not be ignored.  In 2005, the rally in Silver as a result of this Disparity trigger resulted in Silver reaching a 38% higher peak than Gold.  In 2009, the same Disparity trigger prompted Silver to rally to levels nearly 300% higher than the peak in Gold prices.  If Gold rallies to levels above $2800 to $3100, which is our expectation, and this Disparity trigger prompts an upside move in Silver, we believe Silver could rally to levels 200% to 400% (or more) higher than Gold prices.  By our estimates, that would put Silver prices above $90 to $95 per ounce – possibly much higher.

Take advantage of any opportunity you have to position your portfolio for this setup and be patient.  The upside breakout in Silver happens like a train leaving the station.  Slow and steady at first, then building momentum, then finally running at top speed.  Each time this Disparity trigger sets up and executes, Silver starts a moderate move higher at first, then explodes to the upside as Gold continues to rally higher.  That last explosive move is why Silver reaches peaks that are substantially higher (in percentage terms) than the peaks in Gold.

Please pay attention to our research team’s efforts to help you create greater success and find great trades.  Take a minute to visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn how we can assist you in 2020 and help you build wealth, attain greater success and stay ahead of these bigger market moves.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Commitment Of Traders (COT) Data Suggests Gold In Rally Mode

Many people believe the price of Gold will need to fall to support Institutional short positions.  We don’t believe this is the case.  The Commitment Of Traders (COT) Data suggests Commercial Hedgers have a large and growing shot position that is a very positive sign for a continued rally in Gold and Miners looking forward months from now.

Don’t think about COT data like everyone else with it comes to gold.

Over the past 20+ years, every time the COT Commercial Hedgers position in Gold falls, weakens substantially, or makes new multi-year lows the price of gold rallies.

WHY RECORD COMMERCIAL SHORT HEDGE POSITION IS BULLISH

It is my belief that the markets will move in favor of where the big money (commercial/institutions) want it to go in most cases. so if the commercial’s keep adding a short hedge position that means they are adding to heir long exposure and need to add more of a hedge to help protect their growing LONG position.

The weakening COT data from 2001 through 2012 is a perfect example.  As Commercial Hedgers moved away from Gold, the price of gold rallied to the all-time highs.

Additionally, after the major bottom in Gold in 2016, Commercial traders would have bought and accumulated gold driving the price higher.

Now, in late 2018 and throughout all of 2019, the Commercial Hedger COT position in Gold has fallen to the lowest level in the past 20+ years. This suggests the rally in Gold has really just begun to accelerate to the upside and there are more people buying gold than ever before who are buying protection (hedging)

The COT data I find very deceiving because it’s displayed and delayed in a way that makes traders and investors think the opposite.

Wall Street is in the business of making a market, and that means they play a game of deception so you do the opposite of what they are doing. Wall Street show As you watch gold moving with your new view on the COT data, you will notice gold will rally and post strong moves, then a couple of weeks later the COT data comes out.

With all that said, this is just my view and opinion of how I read the COT data for gold specifically. As with every chart and trader, there are many different ways things can be analyzed and viewed.

Since the price just had a strong advance, and you now see the commercials have added to their short position you naturally expect a pullback after a price rally especially when you see the big players adding to their short/hedge position. But what really just happened? the big players bought gold, and they had to hedge some of their new position. Very bullish in my opinion. While I do not use it for trading, it is a good confirming indicator of a trend.

Our research team, as well as our proprietary price modeling systems, suggested that Gold may rally to levels above $3700 before reaching an ultimate peak.  Currently, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting the next target is well above $1600 and we believe our original target from our October 2018 analysis, of $1700 to $1750, is still very valid.

We believe this current upside price rally in Gold will attempt to clear the previous high levels near $1924 – from September 2011.  We believe moderate resistance/rotation near $1700 to $1750 will be the last level of price resistance before a continued rally will push Gold prices above the $1924 peak – possibly stalling just below $2100.  Once price breaches the previous high level, we expect a short period of price rotation before another upside price acceleration takes Gold prices above $2400 to $2500.

Gold Miners are poised for an incredible upside price rally if our analysis of Gold is accurate.  GDXJ is currently trading near $42 – showing moderate weakness while Gold has seen some strength this week.  We believe Miners will do very well once Gold really breaks out above $1750 and begins to target the previous all-time high level.

Much like our expectations for Gold, we believe GDXJ will rally to levels near $60 once this current overbought condition wears off. Then we expect it to head towards $60 and rotate lower for a few weeks before attempting to rally further to levels above $70+.

Take a minute to review some of our recent Gold research posts to gain further insight

January 2, 2020: ADL GOLD PREDICTION CONFIRMS TARGETS

December 30, 2019: METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF

December 4, 2019: 7 YEAR CYCLES CAN BE POWERFUL AND GOLD JUST STARTED ONE

You won’t want to miss this incredible run in Precious Metals and Miners.  Follow our research.  Learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.  We’ve been warning all of our followers of this move for months – now it is about to get very real. In fact, we are giving away free silver and gold bullion bars to all new subscribers of our trading newsletter!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry?

Another wild week for oil traders with missiles flying and huge overnight price swings in crude. As we recently pointed out within our current Oil research article, Oil and the Energy sector may be setting up for another great trade.  We recently commented on how the supply/demand situation for oil has changed over the past 20+ years.

With US oil production near highs and a shift taking place toward electric and hybrid vehicles, the US and global demand for oil has fallen in recent years.  By our estimates, the two biggest factors keeping oil prices below $75 ppb are the shift by consumers across the globe to move towards more energy-efficient vehicles and the massive new supply capabilities within the US.

Our researchers believe the downside price rotation in Crude Oil early this week, after the US missile attack in Iraq, suggests that global traders are just not as fearful of a disruption in oil supply as a result of any new military actions in Iraq, Iraq or anywhere near the Middle East.  If there was any real concern, then the price of Crude Oil would have spiked recently.

We talk more about what we expect with oil both the bullish and bearish outlooks in this recently recorded conversation with HoweStreet.

INVERSE ENERGY ETF ERY DAILY CHART

This leads us to believe the inverse Energy ETF, ERY, maybe setting up a very nice bottom in price below $40.  Ultimately, we believe a deeper price bottom may set up in the next 10 days where ERY may trade below the $36~37 range, but time will tell if we are correct about this or not.

Historically, price levels below $40 have resulted in some very nice long trade setups in ERY.  This ERY Daily chart highlights the Support Channel we believe exists in ERY and why we believe any entry-level below $36 is an outstanding entry point for any future upside price move.

WEEKLY ERY CHART

This Weekly ERY chart highlights the past rallies that have originated from within the Support Channel.  Pay special attention to the size and scope of these moves.  The October 2018 rally resulted in a 183% price rally.  The April 2019 rally resulted in a 57% price rally.  The July 2019 rally resulted in a 50% price rally and the last move in September 2019 resulted in a 41% price rally.

Could this next setup in ERY be preparing for another 40% to 60%+ upside price rally?

We believe the setup in ERY is very close to generating an entry trigger.  We have not issued any new trade triggers for our members-only service as we are waiting for confirmation of a potentially deeper price move in ERY.  Right now, get ready for what may become a very good setup in ERY over the next few weeks.

Watch what happens in the energy sector over the next 30 to 60 days.  We may be setting up for a fairly large price rotation as the tensions spill over into the global markets and precious metals.  We may find that Oil is the big loser over the next 60+ days.

Profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE BULLION!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Middle East Trouble Renews Interest in Gold

Last time oil peaked, it dropped nearly 20% soon afterward!

Profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

I am going to give away and ship out silver and gold rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1oz Silver Round FREE 1-Year Subscription 
1/2 Gram Gold Bar FREE 2-Year Subscription

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE BULLION!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

The Battle Between Safe Havens And Risk On Continues

With all the fear around the world, it is fascinating to watch the battle that is underway between risk-on and risk-off assets. Chris Vermeulen joins Cory Fleck to share the way he is trading these markets and what he thinks will cause a breakout in either risk-on or risk-off.

Profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

I am going to give away and ship out silver and gold rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1oz Silver Round FREE 1-Year Subscription 
1/2 Gram Gold Bar FREE 2-Year Subscription

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE BULLION!
Free Shipping!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil Reverses Lower Again After US Missile Attack

Normally, after tensions between Iran/Iraq and the US flare-up, Oil and Gold rally quite extensively but reversed sharply lower by the end of the session.

Yes, Gold is 1% higher today and was up over $35 overnight, but Crude Oil has actually moved lower today which is a fairly strong indication that disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East are not as concerning as they were 10+ years ago. Traders and investors don’t believe this isolated targeted missile attack will result in any extended aggression between the US and Iran.

When past conflicts in the Middle East happened, Oil would typically rally and Gold would spike higher as well.  Consider this a reflex action to uncertain oil supply issues and concerns that global market uncertainty could crash the markets.  Gold seems like an easy expectation related to this type of uncertainty as it continues to act as a hedge against many risks like missiles/war, financial uncertainties etc…

In my pre-market video report to subscribers today (Monday, Jan 6th) I pointed out how the price of crude oil was testing a critical resistance area form the last time there were missiles fired. Today’s reversal is not a huge surprise and in fact, it looks like an exhaustion top.

Oil, on the other hand, has experienced one of the longer price declines in recent history, from the peak price near $147 near July 2008 to levels currently near $63.  But we saw a low price for oil below $30 (near February 2016).

CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART

I believe a technical resistance channel may be pushing Oil prices lower today as the price has continued to rotate lower after moving into this extended Resistance Channel.  It may be that global traders don’t believe this conflict with Iran will result in any type of massive oil supply disruption or risk for the global markets right away.  The Resistance Channel, between $63 and $65.50, has continued to act as a price ceiling over the past 7+ months.

CRUDE OIL WEEKLY CHART

Our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling system is highlighting similar levels near $64 and $50.  This price modeling system maps and tracks price rotation using a proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price theory model.  These levels, highlighted on this chart, represent immediate price target levels for any upside move (CYAN, already reached) and any downside move (BLUE, suggesting a move back towards $50 may be in the works).

If Oil is not capable of breaking above this Resistance Channel, then Fibonacci Price Theory would suggest price must turn lower and attempt to establish a new LOW PRICE level that is below recent low price levels.

If this Resistance Channel continues to act as a solid price ceiling, Crude Oil may turn lower over the first few quarters of 2020 and attempt to target levels near or below $50 fairly soon.  Skilled traders should prepare for this type of move and identify opportunities for profits in the near future.

In fact, I also gave subscribers a head up that GDXJ and TLT were going to gap higher and likely be under pressure all session. Also, I showed how the SP500 was going to gap lower deep into oversold territory and likely rally strongly just like last Friday, all of these things happened perfectly today.

Pre-market GDXJ, SPY, TLT warning of price gaps into extreme territories beyond the small colored lines: Red (overbought level), and Green (oversold level)

PRE-MARKET CHART ANALYSIS

END OF DAY MARKET MOVEMENTS

My point is my team and I have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

I am going to give away and ship out silver and gold rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1oz Silver Round FREE 1-Year Subscription 
1/2 Gram Gold Bar FREE 2-Year Subscription

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE BULLION!
Free Shipping!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts In Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold

One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system.  It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy.  The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.

One of our more infamous ADL predictions was our October 2018 Gold ADL prediction chart (below).  This chart launched a number of very interesting discussions with industry professionals about predictive modeling and our capabilities regarding Adaptive Learning.  Eric Sprott, of Sprott Money, highlighted some of our analyses related to the ADL predictive modeling system in June and July 2019.  Our ADL predictive modeling system suggested a bottom would form in Gold near April/May 2019 and then Gold would rally up toward $1600 by September 2019, then rotate a bit lower near $1550 levels.

LISTEN TO WHAT ERIC SPROTT SAID ABOUT OUR ANALYSIS

OCTOBER 2018 GOLD FORECAST

CURRENT 2020 GOLD FORECAST

This next chart shows what really happened with Gold prices compared to the ADL predictions above.  It is really hard to argue that the ADL predictions from October 2018 were not DEAD ON accurate in terms of calling and predicting the future price move in Gold.  Will the ADL predictions for the NQ play out equally as accurate in predicting a downward price rotation of 1000pts or more?

CURRENT 2020 NASDAQ FORECAST

This NQ Weekly chart shares out ADL Predictive Modeling systems results originating on September 23, 2019.  The Price DNA markers for this analysis consist of 15 unique price bars suggesting the future resulting price expectations are highly probable outcomes (95% to 99.95%).  This analysis suggests the end of 2019 resulting in a broad market push higher in early 2020 may come to an immediate end with a downward price move of 800 to 1000+ pts before January 20~27, 2020.  The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price will be trading near 8000 by January 20th or so.

Only time will tell in regards to the future outcome of these ADL predictions, but given the current news of the US missile attack in Iraq and the uncertainty this presents, it would not surprise us to see the NQ fall below the 8000 level as this euphoric price rally rotates to find support before moving forward in developing a new price trend.

Pay attention to what happens early next week with regards to price and understand the 8000 level will likely be strong support unless something breaks the support in the markets over the next 30+ days.  Ultimate support near 7200 is also a possibility if a deeper downside move persists.

As we’ve been warning for many months, 2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders.  You won’t want to miss these opportunities in precious metals, stocks, ETFs and others.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

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Chris Vermeulen