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Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019?

Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019.  The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside.  Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.

IWM RUSSELL 2K STOCK INDEX CHART

Our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system is capable of learning from past price activity and attempts to present key price data and trigger levels that are important for future trending.  The GREEN and RED horizontal lines on the right edge of this chart shows where the TRIGGER LEVELS are for the Fibonacci system.  The bullish trigger level (GREEN) is 2.5% above the current price levels.  The bearish trigger level (RED) is nearly 16% below the current price level.  This suggests that price would have to target either of these levels to establish a new price trend, or continue rotating within these levels to setup new minor peaks and valleys in the price – thus creating revised TRIGGER LEVELS. Get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.

What we find interesting is the current “scouting party” type of rally that is taking place on the right edge of this chart.  This upside price move is above historical resistance (the CYAN LINE) and appears to be an attempt to test the support levels above the $160.50 level.

If the price is successful in establishing support above this level, a new bullish trend may begin.  If not, the price will rotate lower and potentially begin a new bearish price trend.  Remember, the downside Bearish Trigger level is 16% below the current price – so that the downside move could be quite dramatic.

TRANSPORTATION INDEX WEEKLY CHART

This TRAN Weekly chart highlights a similar range-bound price setup where the bullish and bearish Fibonacci TRIGGER LEVELS are well above/below the current price.  The upside Bullish Trigger Level is 4.15% above the current TRAN price level – thus price would have to rally at least 4.5% higher to qualify as a breach of this Bullish Trigger Level and qualify as a potential new bullish trend.  The Bearish Trigger Level is near 18.4% below the current price level – thus the price would have to fall 18.5% from current levels to breach this Bearish Trigger Level and to qualify as a new Bearish Trend.

Where does this leave us headed into the end of 2019?  Our researchers believe the Santa Rally that most traders expect maybe more like a lump of coal in 2019.  We don’t expect any big breakout rally to happen over the next 35+ days and we don’t expect a massive 40% price correction either.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that any rotation within this 20% price range would be considered “absolutely normal” given the ranges that have been set up over the past 2+ years.

Last week we share these charts on the VIX that paint a clear picture of what is likely to unfold in the next week. This current week is one of the strongest months of the year so

Therefore, the downside price move of 6 to 12% would be completely normal.  And the upside move of 2~3% from current levels would be completely normal.  Any price rotation within the GREEN/RED Fibonacci triggers levels would be considered “normal price rotation” given the established price ranges, peaks and valleys.

We’ve been saying for months, 2019 and 2020 are certainly going to be interesting years for traders.  We believe any price rotation or breakout could lead to a wide range of price rotation that may shock skilled technical traders.  At this point, a 22%+ “normal” price range has setup in the markets.  Prices could rotate within this range and “not really go anywhere” in technical terms.

I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and if you find this type of analysis interesting be sure to visit my website and sign up to get both my swing trade and investing ETF trade signals at 41% discount, plus a free bar of silver or gold with my Black Friday Offer Today! Visit: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Breaks Down – Target $40

Our incredible ADL predictive modeling system predicted a moderate price anomaly on July 10th, 2019 in Crude Oil.  We wrote about this oil set up on July 10th. Within this article, we suggested that Crude Oil would rotate to levels near $47~$48 rather quickly, then find some moderate support in December and January where support is likely to be found near $45 to $50. After that, the price of Oil should weaken dramatically where price could fall to levels below $30 ppb on extreme price weakness. We are writing to you today to suggest that Oil prices may attempt to find very brief support near $55.25 as this level represents a key price trigger level which acts as support/resistance.  After such a big downside move for the week, it is our opinion that Oil will briefly hold near this $55.25 level as oil tries to hold support for a couple of days. We believe the selling may abate or weaken slightly early next week as earnings continue to hit the news cycle and future expectations are adjusted based on this data.  Quite a bit of data will be released next week with the worlds biggest firms releasing Q2 data and Q3 expectations.  We believe this news/data will result in a brief pause in the decline of oil prices and allow traders to set up for the next move lower. This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights the downside price action this week as oil collapsed from the $60 upside target called from our early June oil video forecast. The chart below also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool that is currently suggesting support will be found just above $51 ppb – which is aligned with the previous price bottom in early June 2019.  Mild resistance is also found near $56.70 (the BLUE projected price level).  This level will likely act as a “congestion range” as price rotates and attempts another downside leg.
This Weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the bigger picture for oil.  The recent breakdown in price has just crossed the Bearish Fibonacci trigger level (RED LINE near $55.20) and this breach suggests the downside price move may just be starting. Ultimate downside targets near $40 to $44 are where we believe the price will find support over the next 30 to 60+ days.  Beyond these levels, the price may continue much lower and eventually breach the sub $30 level in Q1 or Q2 of 2020, which would likely be a strong cause of the pending bear market.

Concluding Thoughts:

Any deep downside price move like this in Crude Oil would suggest that economic weakness and supply/demand issues are the root causes of a Crude Oil price collapse. If the downside move continues as we are suggesting, many foreign nations will come under extreme economic pressures and currency levels/support could become threatened as the foundation for many oil-based economies will begin to crumble.  This could create an extreme debt/credit issue for many nations throughout the planet and could push the US Dollar well above $100.  The implications for extended trends and trades is incredible when you consider the scope of the economic shift that will take place if Crude Oil does begin trading below $30 in early 2020. $30-$40 crude oil could spark or further deeping the pending bear market which has been a long time coming. Almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start so get ready. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.  The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

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So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019?

We asked our researchers a question recently, “Could Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?”.  We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.  We wanted to hear what they thought it would take for a move like this to happen and if they could support their conclusions with factual conjecture. Now we ask you to review these findings and ask yourself the same question.  What would it take for Gold to rally above $3750 (over 200% from current levels) and why do you believe it is possible? Our research team came to two primary conclusions in support of a Gold price move above $3750 : A)   The US Presidential election cycle/political environment could prompt a vicious global economic contraction cycle of fear and protectionist consumer and corporate activity that propels the global economy into a deflationary (mini-crisis) event. B)   The global trade wars could complicated item A (the US Presidential election cycle) and create an accelerating component to this global political event.  The result is the mini-crisis could turn into “ a bit more” than a mini-crisis if the global trade wars prompt further economic contraction and disrupt global economic activities further. Our research team suggested the following as key elements to watch out for in terms of “setting up the perfect storm” in the global markets. A)  The US Dollar falls below $94 and continues to push a bit lower.  This would show signs that the US Dollar is losing strength around the world B)  The Transportation Index falls below $4350 and begins a bigger breakdown in price trend – targeting the $3000 level.  This would indicate that global trade and transportation is collapsing back to 2007-08 levels. C)  Oil collapses below $45 would be a certain sign that global Oil demand has completely collapsed and the sub-$40 level would very quickly come into perspective as a target. D)  Global Financial stability is threatened by Debt/Credit issues while any of the above are taking place.  Should any of the A, B or C items begin to take form over the next few weeks or months while some type of extended debt or credit crisis event is unfolding, it would add a tremendous increase of fear into the metals markets. Our researchers believe the US Dollar is safe above the $91 level throughout the end of 2019 and that any downside risk to the US Dollar would come in brief price rotations as deflationary aspects of the global economy are identified. In other words, at this time, we don’t believe the US Dollar will come under any severe downside pricing pressures throughout the end of 2019.  We do believe a downside price move in the US Dollar may be setting up between now and early July 2019, but we strongly believe the $91 to $93 level is strong support for the long term.
The Gold Spot price / the US Dollar price chart highlights the incredible upside price move in Gold after 2001-02.  It was almost a perfect storm of events that took place after this time to prompt a move like this to the upside.  Not only did we have multiple US based economic crisis events, we also had a series of global economic “shifts” taking place where capital and assets were migrating all across the globe searching for superior returns.  Could this happen again??  Of course it could.  Although, we believe the next move in precious metals will be met with a completely different set of circumstances – very likely targeting foreign nations and not the US economy.
This SPDR GLD chart shows a moderately safer play for investors and traders.  The potential for a 20%+ upside price move over the next 60+ days is quite likely and our belief is that traders should be able to trade GLD throughout many of the upside and downside price rotations over the next few weeks and months.  Ultimately, if you are skilled enough to pick proper entries, a decent trader could focus on GLD and pick up 65% to 120% ROI over a 7 to 12 month span of time. – Our Last Gold Forecast From October 2018 Unfolding Perfectly – Pay attention to where the opportunities are for your level of skill and capital.  As we’ve been saying for many months, 2019 and 2020 will be fantastic years for active traders.  Stick with what you can execute and trade well because there will be dozens of trades available to most traders over the next 16+ months.
Overall, our research team believes that precious metals have just begun to move higher on a WAVE C impulse move.  We authored a research post suggesting that Gold and Silver were currently 20 to 30% undervalued back in late May 2019.  The current upside move in Gold and Silver may be just the beginning of a much bigger move. Ideally, we believe this initial impulse move will end above $1650.  From these current levels, that reflects a 25% to 30% upside move in GLD.  If any of the fear-inducing items, listed above, begin to take shape over the next 12+ months, we could certainly see Gold above $2100 before too long.  $3750 may seem like “shooting for the stars”, but all it takes is a combination of fear and deflation/inflation to drive investors into a gold-hoarding mode just like we saw after 2003-2004 – and that move prompted a 500% price rally from the $300 base level. That same move today would put the current price of Gold near $7800.  It might seem like it could never happen – but it could. Bottom line, we forecast the markets and share some extreme analysis like this to open your eyes to some potential opportunities. But, you cannot just jump into gold or miners after reading this and think you are set for success. The markets are never that simple. You must actively adjust and trade with the market and our daily video analysis is what will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. This week, we locked in some profits on our long gold ETF, and gold miners ETF, why? because our analysis says both of these are at resistance and could pullback before heading higher. We don’t buy, hope and hold, we enter positions, lock-in profits, rinse, and repeat over and over again. Get my daily video analysis and trade alerts today by subscribing to the Wealth Building Newsletter. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Financials Setting Up An Island Top Formation

As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears.  Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs.  We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.

Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future.  We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.

An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap.  In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue.  Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends.  Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.

This Daily FAS chart highlights the GAP as well as the Resistance levels that are currently acting as a ceiling.  A breakout above the resistance level would indicate that we have more room to run higher.  Any failed breakout to the upside, where price briefly rallies above the resistance level, then falls back below it, would be a pretty strong indication of a rotational peak.  The Financials could fall 10% from current levels and still be within the range of the March/April lows.  It would take a much bigger move to qualify as a breakdown bearish trend.

 

This Daily XLF chart highlights a similar pattern to the FAS chart.  The key element of the XLF chart is that the Resistance level provides more key fundamental price peaks than the FAS chart.  On this XLF chart, we can see that the current Resistance level aligns perfectly with the Nov/Dec 2018 highs.  We can also see a short GREEN Fibonacci trigger level line in early March 2019 above the Resistance level.  That Fibonacci trigger level is still valid and any move above that level would constitute a new bullish price trend trigger.

Any failure to break the Resistance level would qualify as a price rotation to fill the GAP and potentially set up a move back to near $25 looking to find new support.  Overall, the Financials are poised for a move – up or down.  Our research suggests the US stock market is not done rising, thus we are concerned that certain sectors may begin to show signs of weakness as the broader market continues to rise.

 

Our research team believes a critical peak formation is likely near the end of May or in early June 2019.  It is because of this belief that we are warning traders to play the next 15~25+ days very cautiously.  Watch the Financials, the Transportation Index, the US Dollar, and Precious Metals.  We believe any early signs of weakness will be found within these symbols.

With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Courses are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen