June 16, 2010
It’s been a bright week so far for stocks and commodities. It appears that the down trend could have ended as of yesterday (Tuesday June 15th). In this mid-week report I figured I would bring back the 80’s colors to see if I can spice things up!
Below are some charts I did showing my current views on the market. You may want to put on your hyper color shirt, sunglasses and zinc when viewing them in order to get into the zone… lol
SPX – S&P500 Index Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart
I’ll keep this short and sweet here are the main points.
Moving Averages crossed over this week and when we see this a trend reversal generally occurs. That being said it is best to wait for the moving averages to cluster which means we need a pullback or sideways movement for a few days. I feel this is very likely to happen.
NYSE Buying Spikes have returned! We saw these during the previous bottom back in February. As the market continues to trend higher and mature these volume spikes tend to increase also.
Long Term Cycle has bottomed and should start to rise this week. As we can see from the February bottom the cycle was also bottoming which is very bullish for the index.
We Are Here shows where I think we are currently trading. The market is over bought right now and I feel a quick pullback or sideways move is needed before we see a continued move up.
Gold is trading in a tight wedge at the moment. The long term picture is pointing to higher prices but I feel there is a good change of one last drop which should shake out a bunch of traders before rocketing upwards. August and September are good months for gold to move up and if you have been following the market as long as I have then you know patterns and prices can drag out much longer than we anticipate. So as much as the chart of gold looks like an imminent breakout is about to occur, it could still be a few months way. And to be honest that’s how the market works…. If it doesn’t shake you out, it will wear you out!
Crude Oil Futures – Daily Chart
Oil is trading a key pivot point and also looks to have formed a possible bear flag. At the moment I am neutral on oil, it’s a 50/50 guess as to which way it will go, so I am just watching for now… But I have pointed out some key resistance and support levels for those with oil positions… This small chart makes it look like I put a ling at ever $2 but if you look closer some are above and below those even numbers.
Mid-Week Stock and Commodity Wrap Up:
In short, I think the market is on the verge of another rally which is very exciting since we cashed out in late April before the market had the big sell off. It will be nice to put some long term plays to work so we are not so dependent on the short intraday plays which last 1-2 days because of the extreme volatility in the market.Last week we saw the financial market including commodities move higher which was great to see. But the recent run up has brought both equities and commodities to their key resistance levels. With Gold, Oil and the SP500 trading near key resistance points we will most likely have some sharp movements this week so buckle up tight!
Gold – Daily Chart
Gold Future Prices continue to form the large cup and handle pattern and is trading near resistance. This week I figure we will see gold make a move up or break the dotted support trend line and drop towards the blue support level. I continue to wait for a low risk setup for gold.
Crude Oil – Daily Chart
Crude oil has been trending down for a couple months and recently rebounded to test its resistance level. It looks as though oil is forming a bear flag which generally means we should see lower prices in the near future. But another $1-2 move up could trigger a surge of buyers if this resistance level is broken which is why this week should be volatile… it’s a 50/50 chance for commodities to either rally or sell off.
SP500 – Daily Chart
The SP500 has posted some decent gains the past couple days but it’s still no in the clear just yet… Most technicians are looking for a move above 1100-1110 area with heavy volume before they start to commit serious money to the long side.
It looks and feels as though the market could drop or rally very sharply from here and if you are caught on the wrong side of the move then it’s going to really hurt the trading account. During times like this when the market is at a critical pivot point with increased volatility levels along with mixed market internals I tend to stay on the side lines until some dust settles.
Weekend Gold, Oil and SPX Trading Conclusion:
In short, everything is trading near key pivot points giving mixed signals for prices to rally or drop. My analysis is pointing to a small move up Monday morning to break Fridays high followed by some selling late Monday or Tuesday. How much of a move down I don’t know for sure but there is potential for a 3-4% move. On the flip side if buyers step in pushing the price above 1100 then we could see a surge higher of 3-4%…
Very dicey times right now to be trying to pick a direction, which is why it’s best to wait for the risk level to diminish before getting involved or at least trade a small position with a protective stop if you feel confident in a direct.
I figure we will see stocks and gold move up together but I’m not really sure about oil at this point… If oil does not move up then the market will have limited up side and instead of a new bull market rally to new 2010 highs we could just see move up to test near the April high. Then it could roll over and start heading back down triggering much larger sell off as we enter another bear market.
All that being said… it looks to be a couple months away still and a lot can happen in that time. As a market technician I take each chart one day at a time.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-06-13 14:42:192014-03-10 08:34:57SP500, Oil and Gold Trading at Resistance Levels