Archive for category: $SPY

Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon.  Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5^th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.

Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently.  We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.

Currently, we are expecting Technology to be the biggest rotation of US majors.  In other words, we expect the NQ, NASDAQ and Technology stocks to take the biggest hit while this price rotation takes place.  This would make sense as new price valuation levels (lower) in technology would allow for a solid momentum base and renewed accumulation going forward.

Plan and prepare for this expected rotation by pulling some of your profits from any long trades while being aware that downward price swings are often 3~7x faster than upside price swings.  Our expectations are that we will see general price weakness beginning near March 5^th and a strong likelihood that the VIX will rotate above 16 as this volatility begins to increase.  Overall, we believe any VIX move above 20 will likely start to form a support/momentum bottom fairly quickly.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

The US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends.  We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.

A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24^th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”.  We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place.  We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold.  We believe the US Dollar strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.

Just take a look at the weekly gold chart price range and support zone. As we know, in most cases when the dollar rallies gold falls.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to read all of the most recent research – including our very detailed 5-part global economic research series.  This post is very important because it shows predicted price levels going all the way into 2021 and highlights why this “new bull market” may just be getting started.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

This, the final segment of our multi-part research post regarding the potential future market direction as well as to identify if there is any real concern for traders regarding a “total market collapse” as some Doomsayers are predicting should help you understand what our researchers believe is the most likely outcome.  In the previous segments of this research post, we’ve covered everything from the globalization of markets and economies to key elements of core pricing levels and valuation levels of economies, equities markets and more.  The data is out there if you know where to find it and how to read it.  All one has to do is step back from the shorter term charts and see the bigger picture for a bit.

As promised, we’re going highlight some very informative future market predictions using our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling tool.  This modeling tool has been able to call the past 20+ months of market activity very accurately and help to guide us in understanding what is really taking place in the US stock market – read more about it here.

The one key element of the ADL predictive modeling system is that it accomplishes two key components.  First, it can provide a very clear “high probability” outcome for nearly any market in any time-frame.  Second, it can also provide us with a very clear “point of failure” with regards to the predictive modeling results.  We’re certain you understand the value of the first component, but do you understand the value of “knowing when you’re wrong”?

The concept of “failure to fail” or “failure to succeed” continues to baffle many traders, investors, and researchers.  If you break it down into the simplest terms, it means “you are absolutely correct” or “you are dead wrong”.  The question then becomes, “do you have a plan of action for both of these potential outcomes?”.  Keep this in mind as we continue reviewing charts.

This first QUARTERLY SPY chart highlights our ADL predictive modeling system results originating from October 2016.  The ADL predictive modeling system plots the highest probability outcome for price based on a very unique “price pattern and technical indicator DNA marker/lookup” algorithm. What makes it so unique is that it is able to learn from any price data and apply that data/outcome to any newer price par that appears on the chart.  Thus, we can ask the ADL to show us what is likely to happen well into the future with a relatively high degree of accuracy.

In this case, if you follow the YELLOW, WHITE and CYAN dash levels on this chart, you’ll see the predicted outcome from the ADL price modeling system matched real price levels quite accurately and actually predicted the Q4 2018 market collapse very accurately.  You can read about how we called this market move here.

Currently, the ADL predictive price modeling system is suggesting the current price of the SPY is well above projected ADL price levels.  Thus, we would be expecting the price to rotate lower over the next few weeks/months to settle near the 250~270 level.  You should be

able to clearly see the YELLOW dash levels to the right of the current price – these are the ADL predictive price levels going forward.  Our research team believes the US and global markets will enter a Pennant/Flag formation over the next few months before setting up for another massive upside breakout.  More detail about this setup can be read here.

This QUARTERLY TRAN chart shows a similar setup, yet there is one key difference between these two charts.  This TRAN chart shows that price is currently below the predicted ADL price levels and we can see the ADL predicted price levels trade near 10,750 to 11,200 levels over the next 4 to 5 quarters.  This would likely result in an upward price bias, from these current levels, with a very strong possibility of a sideways, volatile Pennant/Flag formation setting up over the next 6~10+ months.  Somewhere near Q1 or Q2 of 2020, the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that TRAN prices will begin a new upside price rally that may result in a +20% to +30% upside target.

By showing you these two predictive modeling charts and the results of our advanced, proprietary ADL predictive modeling system, we hope we have been able to help to settle your nerves going forward and to help to prove to you that 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders.  All we have to do is understand what price and other technical data are showing us and then sit back and wait for the shorter term price triggers to generate strategic entry triggers.

In order to properly answer our initial question that set us off on this quest: “Are the Doomsayers correct in their predictions or are our predictive analysis models correct in their predictions?” – the true answer is that the future will prove one of us right and one of us wrong.  We believe in our predictive modeling system because it has been able to call the past 20+ months of trading accurately and we’ve seen the power of this tool first hand – many of you have as well.

Overall, yes there are risks still within the global markets and they are still in the midst of a very fragile “revaluation phase” that could include unknown risks for all traders.  Additionally, the ADL predictive modeling system does not take into account geopolitical events (war, regional power struggles, famine or “acts of God”).  It just shows us what it believes is the highest probability outcome in the future.  Therefore, we suggest all traders/investors continue to stay “cautiously optimistic” going forward and learn to exercise proper risk controls.

The global market data that we’ve presented within this multi-part article should help to paint a very clear picture of what is really happening throughout the planet at the moment – at least we hope it does.  We want all of our followers and friends to understand the risks and opportunities that are currently ahead of us and we want to make sure you understand just how important good skilled research is to make informed decisions.

If you like this type of research and how we present these details, then please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can benefit from the hard work our research team puts forth to provide our members with clear opportunities for success.  Take a look at some of our recent winners to see how we help people, just like you, create success.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.  Isn’t it time you invested in your future success by joining a team of professionals dedicated to giving you an advantage in the markets every day?

We still take trades just like the rest of the planet’s traders – we measure risk and opportunity and make decisions to “take the trade” or not.  The only difference is that we have some very cool, proprietary modeling systems that help us find and execute these trading decisions.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can become a member today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Welcome to Part IV of our multi-part research post delving into the global markets, global opportunities and the current “revaluation” even that is taking place.  We started this quest from a simple question, “are the Doomsayers correct in their analysis that the US and global markets would collapse in a spectacular form in the near future?”.  We wanted to dig into this in more detail to prove they were right or to prove our analysis was correct and the markets are simply “re-balancing” in the process of developing greater opportunity.

So far, we’ve covered topics related to globalization, central banks, global GDP and capital asset deployment forms.  We’ve highlighted how the transition from regional economies into global inter-connected economies is now nearly complete and we’ve highlighted how we believe a collapse event could only take place if the largest global economies were to experience some type of massive crisis event.  Unless these types of massive crisis events unfold, the most likely outcome is what we have been proposing all along – a re-balancing/revaluation event cycle that is preparing current market valuations for a momentum breakout rally in the future.

Let’s continue our research.

The chart, below, highlights just how critical global capital flow is in today’s world.  Imagine, back in the 1950s and 1960s – the process of money flowing around the planet in an instant for investment purposes and global central bankers being able to capitalize on various global economies was very difficult to achieve.  Now, with the speed of fiber-optics, these transactions can be completed in seconds and traders/investors can move capital across the planet multiple times throughout a single 24-hour span of time.

In our opinion, the reason the September 11, 2001 market crisis and the 2009~2014 market crisis events were so catastrophic and REAL was because they targeted the US economy (the biggest economy on the planet and the leader of growth throughout the planet) as well as the extended credit, debt and derivatives markets that were formed as the total globalization process expanded.  When this “froth” began to implode, the underlying value of the assets supporting this “frothy fringe investment” imploded at dramatic rates.

(Source : http://ngkf.com/globalcities/2017/over-there.html)

The current issues that should concern investors are China and Europe.  We believe a re-balancing of capital and expectations are currently taking place within these regions that could result in a “de-frothing” process in the near future.  We would like it to be orderly and structured, but we don’t always get what we want – right?  This process of revaluing the future expectations and opportunities within these global markets could create some issues for fringe elements as well (Russia, SE Asia, South America and Africa).  Remember, many of these nations are operating on a “capital high” right now after seeing many decades of “easy money” and extreme growth.  This is the reason for being cautiously optimistic.  We have not completely transitioned into the “total global growth mode” yet.

The one thing that we believe is taking place at the moment is the positioning of capital in preparation for the final revaluation event.  Capital is currently shifting towards safer and more secure global markets in preparation for this last revaluation event cycle.  Our interpretation of this event is that a shakeup of banking/finance institutions as well as larger scale infrastructure projects (Belt Road) and economic coalitions (EU) will result in a more solid and rooted opportunity to build upon success for our future.

A “de-frothing” economic event will likely continue throughout the next 2~5+ years where localized markets will attempt to eliminate the “at risk” top and bottom end players.  Think of this as a process of re-establishing core values and core opportunities.  In an ecosystem, living organisms operate in two separate modes: survival and expansion.  When the environment is hostile and difficult, the organism falls into “survival mode”.  This is where froth and at-risk elements are terminated because the important aspect for the organism is “to survive the environment”.  If the environment improves and becomes more “friendly and supportive”, then the organism will transition into “expansion mode” where it will try to grow, expand and “flower”.  This is where the organism becomes very healthy and is able to begin taking on new risk/froth elements.

Currently, we believe the global economy is nearing the end of the de-frothing/revaluation phase and will begin to establish new growth footing over the next 2~5+ years.  Our hypothesis is that the 2009~2014 Global Credit Market crisis started a massive global de-frothing process that is currently working through the global markets.  Intentional or unintentional, we don’t know.  But we do understand that the process of “survival or expansion” is key to the long term economic events that continue to work through the global markets.  Let’s look over some charts.

One element typically happens near the early/middle stage of economic expansion is a Commodities price increase.  Looking at the larger picture of the global price of all commodities, we can see that an expansion channel existed between 2004 and the peak near 2008 and, since then, global commodities have been within a Major Downward sloping price channel.  It is our opinion that global commodities will stay near the lower range of this price channel as the revaluation/re-balancing phase continues.  Eventually, global commodities will likely attempt to setup a Flag/Pennant formation before attempting a true price advance after the froth/risk has been sufficiently eliminated from the global markets.

Additionally, this chart showing total international debt securities of all countries clearly shows WHEN the global markets entered the revaluation/re-balancing phase.  It all started with the 2009~2014 global credit market crisis – not with the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.  This information supports the process that the global economy was much healthier in 2001 as a result of the expanded opportunities supported by the new Internet/technology boom.  The crisis event in 2001 was dangerous as it could have resulted in a global economic contraction, yet it appears the expansion in commodities prices and the continuous expansion of debt was unabated.

The 2009~2014 global credit crisis event was a completely different story for the markets.  This event consisted of a core element implosion that touched nearly every corner of the planet and started a “de-risking” event that is still taking place.  True economic expansion will not begin until this event is completed.  The process of revaluing the markets is currently taking place and a true “capital shift” is still underway where capital is being deployed in the safest and most secure markets on the planet in order to secure proper ROI as well as seeking “speculative ROI” from undervalued international markets.

We continue to expect debt consolidation to continue throughout most of the established world.  The single purpose of this Revaluation event is to find and secure proper valuation levels for the entire global market before true expansion can begin.  We’ve already experienced a massive revaluation process across most of the planet and the only thing left to complete are the proper valuation levels of the most frothy and unhinged global markets on the planet.

This process may not be pretty at times, but it certainly will provide skilled traders and investors with incredible opportunities for profits.  You won’t want to miss these moves over the next 3~5+ years.

Don’t miss Part V of this incredible research post as we’ll show you exactly what to expect over the next 24~30+ months in the US markets and who you why skilled and professional research, like this, is key to understanding where opportunity really exists in these markets.

If you want to learn how our proprietary price modeling systems, a dedicated research team, daily videos, and more resources will help you find and execute better trades, then please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you.  If you want to know how and when we are trading these markets to help our members, then consider becoming a member and enjoying all the benefits we offer our subscribers.  This is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Isn’t it time you invested in something that can really help you develop greater success?

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com