The Next Big Market Correction

Our researchers have been working overtime trying to help you stay ahead of these market moves.  You may recall that we called this current downward price rotation in the US stock market over 25 days ago?  You may recall that we called the downside price move in Gold over 40 days ago?  Now, we’re going to help you understand how to find profits from these movements and how to look for opportunities throughout this rotation.

Our expectations for this move are that the NQ will see the biggest price rotation compared to the ES and YM.  We expect the ES and YM to rotate downward by about -4~8% while we expect the NQ to rotate downward by -6~12%.  The reason for this is that we believe investors are already in the midst of a capital shift moving capital away from technology and into Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.  We believe this transition away from technology will continue and we believe this price weakness may result in the NQ/Technology establishing much lower price levels than many expect.

Currently, our expectations are for support near $6860 to hold with a potential for prices to reach a lower support level near $6740.  We do expect this downside move to last at least 2~3 weeks before setting up a “momentum base” and starting to move higher again.

 

Opportunities currently exist for skilled traders to play this downside move in technology as well as to play an upside pop in the Inverse ETFs related to technology and the NASDAQ.  Additionally, a similar trade could be made in the ES & YM, although we must warn you that price moves in the ES & YM are expected to be much more shallow in nature.

Our research suggests a bottom may form from this move sometime near April 10~17, 2019.  We believe this rotation may last at least 3~4 weeks as expectations of global markets may continue until Brexit, US/China Trade and or Q1 Earnings start to hit the markets near the April 10~17 dates.

Once we enter April and get past April 5th or so, we should switch gears and start to look for Buying opportunities in the ES, YM, and NQ with a bias towards the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.  We believe these will be the bigger upside winners over the next 3~6+ months and could show an incredible upside price move after this new “momentum base” completes.

It is very important to take a minute to view our 5 PART Series because it shows you predicted price levels going all the way into 2021 and highlights why this “new bull market” may just be getting started.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

RECENT CLOSED TRADES

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Are you ready for the next big move in Gold?

If you were following our research, you would have known that Gold had reached a short-term peak in February. On Feb 19th the day gold posted a huge gain for the day and everyone was bullish and feeling like million bucks I did a radio show with HoweStreet’s Jim Goddard and said that strong day and overly positive sentiment was the going to be the top, which it was – Listen Here.

We had been advising our members that Gold would likely retrace below $1300 possibly beeper by and mid-April.  Our advanced Adaptive Learning price modeling systems had warned us that Gold would likely setup a price rotation before the next move higher back in January 2019.  This is what you need to know about the next 4+ weeks in Gold.

First, this downside price move is not over yet.  It will likely continue through early April – attempting to establish a price base and new momentum bottom.  Our opinion is that $1260 is currently the ultimate low price objective – although this is a soft target.  Meaning, the price could retrace below this level (possibly towards $1240) before establishing a true price bottom.  Be prepared for a low price near or below $1265 at some point in the near future.

Second, this downside price move in Gold will likely create opportunities for skilled traders over the next 3~6+ months.  Our longer-term predictive modeling systems suggest that Gold will rally towards $1500 or higher near May/June of 2019.  Thus, this downside move in an opportunity for skilled traders.

Third, we believe global economic and political news cycles are prompting a shifting capital across the planet at the moment.  Global capital is likely shifting into safety in the US Stock market and away from high-flying technology and biotech stocks.  Because of this, the fear that would typically drive a rally in Gold has been partially abated.  The strength of the US dollar and the willingness of investors to shift capital into larger Blue Chips and Mid-Caps helps to reduce the true “fear hedge” that would drive Gold prices higher.

Lastly, we believe this trader psychology will change in late April or early May of this year.  Our predictive modeling systems suggest a strong price advance in Gold will take place in May/June of 2019.  Our cycle analysis suggested that April 21~24, 2019 are “key dates” for a cycle bottom or some type of news event that could change the dynamics of the precious metals markets.  Pay attention.

This means that we need to be prepared for the downside price rotation in Gold and be aware that April 21~24 are likely to be a major inflection point in the precious metals markets.  Skilled traders would be looking for opportunities before these dates and positioning themselves for the upside move.

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., believes the $1260 level is true support – although we believe $1245 or so maybe an ultimate “washout low” price level to watch for.  At this time, we are waiting for a clearer basing formation to establish new long positions and we are watching the US Dollar as well.

There is still plenty of time for this base/bottom to setup.  Remember the April 21~24 date range and plan for key opportunities to setup 7~10 days before this key date.  The next move higher in Gold should push prices well above $1400 with a high price target near $1540 for the longer term.  If you are a “gold-bug” and/or want to find some real opportunity in the markets, then you won’t want to miss this next move.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

RECENT CLOSED TRADES

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Strong Historical Probability of NG Long Trades Setting Up

Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher.  Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April.  Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.

How do we know this?  We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data.  This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above.  When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.

The weekly historical data analysis for March shows a 53 to 46 positive price advantage with an average of $0.99 upside advantage over 99 tested weeks.  The weekly historical data analysis for April shows a 58 to 45 positive price advantage with an average of $0.89 upside advantage over 103 tested weeks.

Although the Weekly data is not as overwhelming in terms of positive to negative weekly results, the overall results still support the Monthly data – resulting in nearly a $1.00 upside price advantage.  Therefore, we believe any price rotation down in Natural Gas near recent lows, below $2.70, would be an excellent opportunity to take long positions with an upside target between $3.10 and $3.35.  We are not attempting to target the full $1.00 potential upside because we want to target safer, quicker upside objectives – not the lower probability targets.  In doing so, targeting a $0.40 to 0.60+ range allows us to execute very high probability objectives and trade almost like a “sniper”.  Get in, get our target and GET OUT.

If you want to see recent trade we closed on natural gas take a look at this post which I think you will agree is nothing short of simple and awesome!

We believe the current Buy Zone in NG is below $2.70.  Once price rotates a bit lower, any entry near the $2.70 level or lower would be an excellent entry level for skilled traders.  Our targets would be anything north of $3.00.  Ideally, we would pull half of our trade-off as soon as the price reached above $3.00 and pull the second half off when prices reached above $3.20 or $3.25.

Remember, we’re showing you that the months of March and April share this upside price advantage.  This means there is a higher probability of upside price moves throughout March & April in NG and all we have to do is find the strategic entry points and “run our trades”.  Get ready for some great trading opportunities this year and pay attention to NG.  Remember, you can trade the ETFs for Natural Gas as well.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Recent Closed Trades

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

MOMENTUM VS SENTIMENT FOR GOLD

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on the recent pullback in gold. There is a debate over sentiment (which remains strong) vs momentum (which is negative) and which one will carry the market in the short term. We also look at the USD and the tech sector in terms of just how much more they can run.

Click to Listen/Download

Chris’ Most Recent Closed Trades

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PART II – What Commodities and Transportation Telling Us

In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.

This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED).  This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations.  First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017.  We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.

We believe this Key Bottom in both the Commodities Index and the Smart Cash Index reflect a dramatic pricing shift that took place at that point in time.  Although Commodities have yet to rally beyond upper high ranges, we can see the Smart Cash Index rallied to incredible new all-time highs.  The rally that started near the end of 2016 in the Smart Cash Index was likely the result of a “Capital Shift” that we have discussed extensively in the past.  With commodity prices staying historically low and an increase in economic optimism, capital shifted away from “commodity-based sectors” and into “technology and biotech sectors”.  Now, it appears this rally has run its course and a new capital shift is taking place.

Until Commodities begin to break out of the downward price channels we’ve highlighted on this last chart, global capital will be searching for two primary objectives; safety and hedged returns.  By this, we mean to say that global capital and investment will be seeking out strong Blue Chip and Mid-Cap performers that can produce safety in growth, dividends and hedge against currency swings or further eroding commodity price levels.  Think of this as a move to “key elements supporting the global economies”.

Heavy equipment, support services, and retailers, tool suppliers, and mid-level equipment suppliers, transportation services for these items and the repair parts and services to keep these tools running efficiently.  Human services, labor, labor services, medical services, and entertainment services are likely to do well over the next 12~24 months.  In an economy where commodity prices are relatively low and Transportation and Capital is flowing quite well, one could easily identify that Capital will seek out and identify the strongest opportunity for safety and growth as sectors continue to shift.  After a massive rally in Technology and Bio-Tech, we believe a continued shift towards Blue Chips and Mid-Caps is taking place right now.  Technology and Bio-Tech will likely find some support in the near future and become “opportunistic investments” eventually.  But right now, we believe global investors are focusing on different targets to hedge the risks that are associated with certain technology stocks.

In closing, our research highlights that Commodities are not increasing as one would expect in an expanding global market/economy.  We believe this is one core factor that will continue to drive a “capital shift” toward opportunity and performance in the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.  Global investors will re-enter the Technology and Biotech sectors when pricing levels become more opportunistic – at some point in the future.  This means we have a very strong likelihood of the US and global Blue Chips, Banks, Industrial Supply, Basic Materials and Human Services (Entertainment, basic human essentials, regional human services, and utilities) will continue to perform well.

The US and the global economy is growing, just not as one would expect in a “total growth” environment.  We believe the global economy has shifted to support “fundamental growth elements” that are related more closely to the types of industry and market sectors that support the fundamental growth components.  We’ve discussed our theory that the global economies operate in a “growth or protection mode” many times before.  We believe the current global economic stance is more in tune with  “moderate growth while still being overly protective”.  Watch Commodities and the Transportation Index for signs of when the global economy enters a larger growth phase and when more opportunity for a broader capital shift will take place.

This concludes this two-part series and how we identify market opportunities for us to trade. Analysis like this has allowed us to generate substantial profits in the past 30 days with UGAZ 30%, NIO 21.6%, ROKU 18%, GDXJ 10.5%.

If you want to learn how we can help you find success throughout this shifting market and throughout 2019 and beyond, then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

What Commodities and Transportation Telling Us – PART I

Our ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices.  These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets.  When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy.  When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies.  When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.

Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”.  Let’s get into the research.

First, the NASDAQ Transportation Index is painting a very clear picture that the upside price move starting near the end of 2016 drove prices well above historical normal ranges.  Even today, we are well above historical ranges originating from the lows in 1998 and including the range expansion from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009.  Given the premise that the Transportation Index would be highlighting increased economic activities across the planet and particularly those of more mature economies, one should expect that global trade/economic activity should be near all-time highs.

We would like to point out a defined upward price slope, highlighted by the RED LINE on this chart.  We believe any potential downside price swing will find clear support near the $5025 level (the first upper range level from historic deviation ranges) or near $4690 (the RED LINE support channel).

 

In order to further our research, we’ll take a look at our “Custom Smart Cash Index” which highlights a broad range of global market indexes and weights them in a US Dollar basis.  Obviously, the results of this Smart Cash Index is designed to highlight the total global valuation levels of a variety of mature economies/markets.  We can easily see the volatility range established by the concerns prior to the 2016 US Presidential Elections created a very deep volatility range.  We believe this is important because it establishes a “relative high point” and a “relative low point” that reflects human psychology and expectations.  In other words, we believe the high point in early 2015 reflects an optimistic investor sentiment and the low point in early 2016 reflects a pessimistic investor sentiment.

This range can help us determine if current Smart Cash valuations are reflecting optimistic or pessimistic expectations by determining if the current price is near the lower areas of this range or the upper areas of this range.

Currently, the Smart Cash Index is moving higher after reaching an ultimate low point near December 24, 2018. This would indicate that optimism is increasing in the global markets.  Additionally, The Smart Cash Index has breached a downward sloping price channel, drawn in BLACK.  We believe continued optimism will drive global market valuations higher over time.  Yet, we believe numerous 4~7%+ price rotations will occur in the US Stock Market as the total valuations continue to rise over the next 12~24 months.

What we would expect to find to help confirm our analysis is the price levels of general commodities would be increased to match the renewed optimism we believe is growing in the global markets.  Obviously, if the global economies are doing well and trade/sales are increasing, then we would expect core commodity levels to increase as demand stays strong which we have seen this happen time and time again during economic cycles.

This concludes PART I and how we identify market opportunities for us to trade. Analysis like this has allowed us to generate substantial profits in the past 30 days with UGAZ 30%, NIO 21.6%, ROKU 18%, GDXJ 10.5%. IF you want to know our conclusion on what commodities and transports are telling us then visit our website to read PART II in the next 24 hours.

If you want to learn how we can help you find success throughout this shifting market and throughout 2019 and beyond, then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members create success.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

NASDAQ and DOW – Two Spectrum’s of the Stock Market

Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets.  The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268.  It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away.  We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.

This first chart of the YM on a Weekly charting basis shows how dramatic the upside price move since December 24th has been  It also shows the current high prices are very near to the high price levels near the end of November 2018/early December 2018.  We believe this “intermediate double top” formation will prompt a downside price rotation towards support near 24985 (or a bit lower).  This represents a -5.5% price rotation and will likely frighten a few long traders.  It will also embolden the shorts to start to power back into the markets expecting “This is IT! – the Big One”.  We believe this downside price rotation will become a very healthy moderate downside price swing that will revalue equity prices, re-establish support and prompt a new upside momentum move that may eventually break all-time highs later this year.  In other words, we believe this rotation will be an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders. We show our volatility VIX setup forming here.

 

This next NQ, NASDAQ Futures, Weekly chart highlight the dramatic difference between the Blue Chips and the Technology sectors.  Unlike the previous upside price swings, between 2016 to early 2018, where the Technology sector was the big gainer, this time it appears the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps are the strongest sectors in this recent move.

We believe this divergence between active price levels may continue through most of 2019 as traders and investors appear to be concerned with technology and the capability of continued earnings/growth going forward.  It appears global investors are more likely to move capital into Blue Chips and Mid-Caps because of stronger earning capabilities, dividends and overall strength of price appreciation.

If our prediction of a 4~6% downside price rotation come true, then we believe the Technology sector will likely result in a larger price rotation than the Blue Chips, Mid-Caps & S&P500 sectors.  We believe this downside rotation is about to hit the markets currently as the NQ has stalled near the 75% Fibonacci retracement level and our proprietary modeling systems are suggesting a “price anomaly” has setup in the NQ.

Be prepared for a moderately large, -4~6%, downside price rotation over the next 5~15 days where support will likely be found near the -5 to -6% levels for the YM and ES.  The NQ may fall a bit further towards 6295 ~ 6773 (-6% to -12%).  We believe the weakness in the technology sector will be much greater than the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.

As skilled traders, we urge you to properly protect your open long positions and prepare for this price rotation.  Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

VIX Likely to Pop Before March 21

Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon.  Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.

Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently.  We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.

Currently, we are expecting Technology to be the biggest rotation of US majors.  In other words, we expect the NQ, NASDAQ and Technology stocks to take the biggest hit while this price rotation takes place.  This would make sense as new price valuation levels (lower) in technology would allow for a solid momentum base and renewed accumulation going forward.

Plan and prepare for this expected rotation by pulling some of your profits from any long trades while being aware that downward price swings are often 3~7x faster than upside price swings.  Our expectations are that we will see general price weakness beginning near March 5th and a strong likelihood that the VIX will rotate above 16 as this volatility begins to increase.  Overall, we believe any VIX move above 20 will likely start to form a support/momentum bottom fairly quickly.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

NG Bottom Rotation Sets Up New Opportunities

Our recent UGAX trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members.  We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders.  Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.

The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now.  Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial.  The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15.  These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.

Still, our researchers believe any price level below $2.60 is an excellent buying opportunity with upside targets of $2.90 or higher in NG.  Trading the UGAZ ETF can provide incredible opportunities for skilled traders.

 

If you are bullish on gold, silver, or miners be sure to take a look at our previous gold prediction because it’s playing our as expected based on the US Dollar.

Read all of our published research posts by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/  We believe 2019 will be an incredible year of opportunities for skilled traders and have already helped our members find some incredible trades.  Isn’t it time you invested a bit into your future success?

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

US Dollar Set to Rally and Gold Collapse?

The US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends.  We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.

A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”.  We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place.  We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold.  We believe the US Dollar strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.

 

Just take a look at the weekly gold chart price range and support zone. As we know, in most cases when the dollar rallies gold falls.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to read all of the most recent research – including our very detailed 5-part global economic research series.  This post is very important because it shows predicted price levels going all the way into 2021 and highlights why this “new bull market” may just be getting started.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com