In today’s video, Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders joins Greg Dickerson to talk about Bitcoin, Gold, Commodities, and the markets in general.

Although Bitcoin is not Chris’ ideal trade set up right now, looking at his daily charts of Bitcoin, he can see it selling off from those highs back in November. Bitcoin has a massive range resulting in it being pretty tough to trade. Overall, bitcoin had that massive euphoric move and looks like it will trade in this huge range for a while, tough to trade in shorter moves.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT BITCOIN AND COMMODITIES – WATCH THE VIDEO

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Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

In today’s video, Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders talks about the best assets to own today based on his chart analysis. Looking at the daily charts, we can see that TLT has sold off from the highs, over 12% and that is not a very good safe-haven play.

Overall, when the markets are not favorable, there are generally other areas where we can own assets and try to take advantage of them if we want to start to become more active in this market.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE BEST ASSETS TO OWN NOW – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events.

As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment.

IWM MAY RALLY 12 TO 14% – TARGETING $238 TO $240

This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles.

I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240.

The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets.

These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur.

Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture.

We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.”

Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting.

WARNING: MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME

Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets.

Chart Source: Zero Hedge

Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down.

Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy.

One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle’s analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver.

Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there’s a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia.

WHAT THE HECK IS CPI?

The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary.

Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long.

SHOULD I INVEST IN GOLD TODAY?

Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases.

CONCLUSION:

It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels. 

WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?

Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.

I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

Using the daily charts, Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders talks about the Copper Miners ETF COPX which had a massive rally back from the 2020 lows up until early last year. Since then we’ve seen the Copper Miners ETF goes into a sideways bull flag pattern. Overall, Copper Miners ETF appears to be on the verge of happing another big rally.

Chris also talks about XME which is another miners sector ETF that is already pushing to some new highs as of 2-3 days ago trading sideways.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT COPPER MINERS ETF COPX – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO, PLEASE VISIT US AT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

I’ve been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game?

Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders’ minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets?

Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally

This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases.

(Source: SeekingAlpha.com)

Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where’s the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy’s commercial phrase).

This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months.

After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets.

The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation.

The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions.

From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles.

(Source: St. Louis Fed)

Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake.

The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less.

The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.

What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?

Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.

I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

While the reality is hopefully not quite that bad, as Traders and Investors, we need to consider our silent partner, the “Taxman,” and how to minimize his cut of our profits. Having a “tax problem” can be a good “problem” to have. But we’re not obligated to pay any more in taxes than tax laws and regulations in our jurisdiction require.

As George Harrison of the Beatles famously penned…

“Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman
Yeah, I’m the taxman”

Are there strategies we can use to significantly reduce our tax bill, even to as low as $0? You bet!

Before we dive in, here are a few caveats…

We’re not tax advisors. You absolutely should review any taxation questions, strategies, or issues with a tax professional that is well-versed in your tax jurisdiction and familiar with your circumstances.

Much of the following pertains to those in the USA. But there’s some information here that may be useful to those outside the USA as well.

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Tax strategies can range from simple to complex. Some have rock-solid legal standing, while some of the more aggressive strategies may invite unwelcome scrutiny from tax authorities. Personally, I prefer simple strategies that are easy to maintain and not subject to “debate” with the IRS.

Lastly, laws and tax codes are subject to change. You need to continually educate yourself and have a good tax advisor to stay on top of any changes.

Traders Tax-Free Accounts

PayPal Founder Peter Thiel famously used the Roth IRA to turn a small investment in Founder’s shares into more than $5 billion tax-free. Google it. It’s a fantastic testimony to the power of the Roth IRA.

Hands-down, the Roth IRA (first created in 1997) is a simple and powerful tool for legally avoiding taxes. Why? Because any gains in the account are not taxed. Not now, not ever!

Reporting individual trades on your tax return in a Roth IRA is super simple. Why? Because none is required! Maintenance and reporting for a Roth IRA couldn’t be easier.

The tradeoff is that – like a Regular IRA – you generally cannot withdraw funds tax-free until age 59 ½. (There are ways around that with a 72t Plan, for example.) And contributions to a Roth IRA are not tax-deductible like they are with a Regular IRA.

If you have Earned Income in the United States, you should seriously consider maximizing contributions to a Roth IRA. Even if you currently don’t have Earned Income, but you have a regular IRA, there are ways to convert all or part of those funds into a Roth IRA should you choose to do so. Typically, you’d have to pay taxes on the converted funds. But once that’s done, the taxes are paid in full. This is commonly known as the “Backdoor Roth IRA,” which is also a way around the income-based annual contribution limits for a Roth.

Tax-Deferred Accounts

Second-best to the Roth IRA is a Regular IRA. Contributions are tax-deductible in the year made. Capital gains in the account are not taxed until funds are withdrawn. Distributions after age 59 ½ are taxed as regular income when they are made.

It used to be that the investment vehicles and strategies that could be used in both Regular and Roth IRAs were somewhat limited. Now there is an extensive range of asset classes and strategies permitted. For example, as an options trader, almost any defined risk strategy is permissible in either a Regular or Roth IRA at most options brokers.

Special Tax Treatment

Section 1256 contracts were created to eliminate a tax avoidance where contracts were sold near year-end to show a loss, and like-kind were repurchased in the following tax year. Section 1256 contract rules were created to require “marked-to-market” at year-end whether the contracts are sold or not.

The big side benefit of Section 1256 contracts is the 60/40 tax treatment, where 60% of gains are treated as long-term capital gains and taxed at a lower rate. The other 40% are treated as short-term capital gains and taxed as ordinary income. If you’re trading in a taxable account, it can be very beneficial to choose Section 1256 contracts where those happen to fit into your strategy. Section 1256 contracts include futures, options on futures, and certain indexes like SPX and VIX and options on those indexes. Be sure to verify Section 1256 treatment and report with your broker and tax advisor.

State Taxes

An additional layer of the tax burden is at the state level. One way to avoid that is to live in one of the states with no income tax for individuals. These are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. You generally must file a federal tax return in those states.

Keep in mind that the “tax-free” states tend to have higher excise, sales, and property taxes. You should consider your overall tax burden and affordability ranking if you’re thinking about moving to one of those states.

Some traders live in multiple states and claim their “residency” in a tax-free state. That can get a little tricky as rules and enforcement will vary. You’ll need to keep good records of your time spent in the tax-free state and be sure to comply with all regulations for both states.

Tax Splitting

Regardless of where you live, it can be possible, legal, and common to create a separate entity, such as a C Corporation, that is domiciled in a tax-free state such as Nevada. Instead of capital gains bumping you into a higher marginal tax bracket as an individual, you could “tax split” and have the entity pay taxes on its gains at a lower Federal level and with no state taxes due. Typically, there are tax implications in your home state if you take income out of the entity for your use as an individual. But be aware that you can create and control a separate entity from yourself that has its own P/L for taxation purposes and that can reduce the overall tax burden.

Summary

Roth IRA.  If it’s available to you, think about maximizing it.  Outside of that, consider tax-deferred accounts, Section 1256, income splitting, and tax-free residency strategies as may be advantageous to your situation.

Now That You Know About Lessening Your Tax Burden, Read On To Learn More About Options Trading

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about their Precious Metals forecast and break down interest rates and oil charts. As we start the year, commodity and energy prices are roaring to life. It’s the perfect time to look at the charts and see if precious metals are about to break out or are just scratching the surface.

Looking at the monthly chart of Silver, it is at a multi-year base just like gold or miners and is trading in a tight range. The daily chart gives us a better view showing that we are getting close to wanting to break and run to the upside.

Based on the shorter-term charts, we are starting to see precious metals come to life. From a long-term standpoint, we are still trading sideways. We are likely very close to seeing metals and miners become a leading sector.

SEE LATEST PRECIOUS METALS forecast

Precious Metals Forecast

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Gold And Silver ETF Trade Signals.
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

Using the daily charts, Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders talks about XBIthe S&P 500 Biotech Sector. Looking at the recent price actions from the 2021 highs, XBI is down roughly about 50%. From a longer standpoint, you can see the Biotech Sector ETF had a very nice rally, a bull flag, and ended up having the second half of the move to the upside.

Overall, Biotech is setting up daily and 30-minute chart patterns that point to pop and rally of 8 – 15% in the next 1-2 weeks.

LEARN MORE ABOUT THE BIOTECH SECTOR ETF XBI– WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The technical traders. You’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

Discussing Precious Metals’ latest bounce and rally and recent trends in the stock market are Chris Vermeulen, founder of The Technical Traders, and Kerry Lutz from the  Financial Survivor Network.

The markets had a relatively large correction and huge sell-off in the SPY 500 in the last couple of weeks. Panic took hold, and the VIX spiked. From the low to the high, we swung 4-5% on a daily basis. With the recent bullish news from the Fed, we are starting to see this turnaround. Is this a bounce or a rally or perhaps a knee-jerk reaction? As positive news hits the wires, money flows back into the market, buying the dip in the lucrative speculative stocks. Having said this, the market is still showing signs of fatigue, so be careful of the news-based one-day bounce. As technical analysts, we watch the charts, not the news.

Fear often results in traders liquidating their stock holdings, causing gold, silver, and their miners to be pulled down as well. Recently the precious metal sector charts show higher highs and lower lows, meaning that they are chopping around all over the place. The hope is that precious metals are putting in a base while gearing up for a swing to the upside.

On the other hand, Oil has gone through a series of rallies and controlled pullbacks or pauses. The charts indicate a running correction to the upside. With world events, supply chain issues, and so on, will we hit the $100 mark? And if we do, what could this mean for the stock market?

Chris and Kerry continue their discussion by delving into the US Dollar, Natural Gas, Rates, Bonds, and Commodities.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE LATEST BOUNCE AND RALLY OF THE STOCK MARKET – WATCH THE VIDEO

TO EXPLORE THE Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The technical traders. You’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.