Its been a volatile week with last Friday kickstarting things with both volatility and the correction in the stock market we have been expecting.

On August 31st my trading partner posted an update to TheMarketTrendForecast.com members with his 2100 downside target for SP500. This week the SPX hit 2100 perfectly and has since bounced back up. This move happened quicker than he anticipated but the level was reached none the less. This weekend he will work on the new forecast for those members and it will provide us with more insight on the market direction next week.

Also, in the Aug 31st update, he updated the gold price forecast with is starting wave 3 of 3. Gold bounced strongly off our technical and EW support level just as expected. Since then, gold has faded back down in a bullish fashion with broad market selling pressure this week. He does expect higher prices in the near term for gold which could provide traders with another NUGT trade.

At this point in time, stock picks are tough as the market has been trading in a VERY tight range for many weeks with low volatility with the exception of the last 5 trading sessions. This just may be the bottom and the starting point of another run higher with the SPX meaning some new explosive stock trades like VUZI.

Take a look at the last two trades he gave subscribers of ActiveTradingPartners.com service:

atp-closed

If the stock market starts to rally he will focus on new long positions, but if things roll over and breakdown more, then inverse ETF and short trades will be more the focus.

Chris Vermeulen

The market is EXTREMELY oversold and is not yet in the Trending Mode!  Therefore, with NO CONFIRMED Trend and oversold momentum oscillators, the market should bounce back, early this week.  The SPX was in a Bollinger Band Squeeze for 5-6 weeks, but finally broke down, last Friday, September 9th, 2016.  Every asset class was down.  This is NOT “buy the bounce” situation.

spx15

In the medium term, there should be a sizeable decline.

I would not use this bounce back, if one does occur, to establish new long positions.  I must view any bounce back, that may occur, as an opportunity to get out of stocks and prepare to go short.  The markets’ decline could be a long way to the downside.

However, the Expanding Top Pattern that the SPX has been forming for the past few months, suggests that it could easily test the 1810 area. That low is over 350 points from its’ current levels.

With a presidential election that is scheduled for November 8th, 2016, it is difficult for me to believe that the Presidents’ “Plunge Protection Team” or the FED will not step in so as to keep the markets from experiencing a dramatic plunge, before the said election. After the election, anything is indeed possible!

Friday, September 9th’s decline was mostly driven by fear of a potential interest rate increase occurring in September of 2016.  As GDP growth is at only 1.1%, I do not believe we will get a rate increase at the time of the next meeting. The FED realizes just how vulnerable the market is which is why there was talk of a rate increase, last Friday.  If they have learned anything, after Fridays’ decline, they will almost certainly keep silent, until after the election.

For the past few weeks, I have been speaking about how the upside potential for this market is limited and that the downside appears to be very profitable.  I still believe this to be true, regardless if the market does indeed bounce back, this week.

However, I would still be cautious about getting short, too soon, despite Fridays’ strong decline. Therefore, please be patient!

If the market does bounce back, this week, and the momentum oscillators become overbought, that is when I will start looking to put on a few shorts.

Over the next few days, I will carefully monitor the markets and keep a very close watch over them.  If I do start to establish short positions, I will do so at higher levels.

If you would like to know exactly what I am trading next follow me at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

We are living in “extraordinary” times, which will end with unpleasant consequences. The world is looking towards the Central Banks to sort out these problems, whereas, the Central Banks are clueless about how to handle this situation.

Never in history has the world seen 30% of global government debt at “negative yields”. This is an experiment, which is unlikely to end with a good result.

“Conventional monetary policy has less room to stimulate the economy during an economic downturn,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams wrote in an essay.“This will necessitate a greater reliance on unconventional tools like central bank balance sheets, forward guidance, and potentially even negative policy rates. In this new normal, recessions will tend to be longer and deeper, recoveries slower and the risks of unacceptably low inflation…will be higher,” reports Zero Hedge.

 

But isn’t the stock market at all-time highs?

Since the third quarter of 2015, the total earnings of the SPX companies have dropped during every subsequent quarter, yet the stock market has reached all-time highs.

Not only this, the current valuations of the SPX are second only to the “lofty” valuations of 1999, which ended with the bursting of the “dotcom bubble”. Nonetheless, the stock markets continue to trade higher in 2016, but for how long?

These days there is a big disconnect between the real economy and the stock markets. The best example of this is the Venezuelan stock markets. Though the people there do not have food, there is rampant hyperinflation and there is unrest among its’ citizens, yet, the stock market went up 10 times between 2012 and 2016:

venezuela

Hence, the investors should be wary of the stock markets rise. The markets will not allow an opportunity to exit in a proper manner, a sample was the fall during the first two months of this year.

Precious Metals’ Powerful Rally Begins!

Smart investors are recognizing this opportunity, which has led to a rise in both gold and silver prices and purchases, as shown in the chart below. Both are among the top four performers this year.

 performance

The debt has become unmanageable, it’s on the verge of explosion!

The total debt of the United States has reached gigantic proportions. It has seen an increase by a factor of 14 since 1980 as shown in the chart below. On the other hand, the GDP of the US has only increased by a factor of 6.2.

debt

Such a mind-boggling debt cannot be repaid ever. “Nobody is prepared to accept that we might have to wipe out decades of growth just to eliminate leverage. Banks go, there are defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, said Viktor Shvets, the global strategist of the investment bank Macquarie Group, reports Zero Hedge.

 

Gold and Silver will be the only saviors:

This is what I have been warning our readers, that all this excess will lead to a “Great Reset”, which will be a period of great turmoil and the only ‘asset class’ that will help you survive the onslaught are the precious metals.

“If you think of gold, the only way gold loses is if normal business and private sector cycles come back. If that is the case, gold goes back $100 per ounce. The other outcomes: deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation are all good for gold,” said Shvets.

 

 

Attempts to move away from the dollar standard:

 

There are talks of moving away from the dollar as the global currency of the world. An option being explored is setting up a global currency, which will be a derivative of the five international currencies, the dollar, euro, pound, yen and the yuan.

Nevertheless, this experiment is likely to fail even before it starts, because, not only are these highly flawed currencies, the Central Banks of these countries also own the largest money printing machines in the world.

So what is left?

A return to the gold standard in some way may be possible solution, because it renders the Central Banks jobless. Nevertheless, Shivets points that the gold standard is likely to come after a war and not before that.

Conclusion:

It is possible to forecast the timing of the stock market crash and the next financial crisis, due to our “Cycle Analysis” and “Predictive Analytics ”. I have been warning that the stock market will top out and eventually the large cap stocks will roll over. There is a huge amount of manipulation by the FED. However, as investors, we can be ready for any eventuality by investing wisely in both gold and silver which has worked well for our long term portfolio the past year and soon enough having a net short position on the stock market will be an incredible opportunity for those who embrace the collapse.

Every crisis also brings an opportunity with it, hence, lets’ make the best use of the opportunity before the price of gold and silver blows through the roof. It is better to invest now and see our investments multiply, instead of waiting for the crisis to start, as, by then, more than half of the rally would be behind us.

Get my next article and analysis by visiting www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Awesome Week For Trading Price Spikes!

Subscribers just locked in another $450 on yesterday’s SpikeAlert for the SP500 Index!

So far traders are up $1,550 in Profits with two simple trades

 

Tuesdays Spike Alert & Targets:

spike-alert13

Wednesday’s Spike Target Hit:

spike-sept14
These spike alerts can be traded in many ways. You can take advantage of them with:
– 1x, 2x, 3x ETFs
– CFD’s
– Spread Betting
– Binary Options
– My favorite – ES Mini Futures Contracts

GET SPIKE ALERTS HERE!

Subscribe
Subscribers just locked in $1100+ on today’s SpikeAlert for the SP500 Index!
These spike alerts can be traded in many ways. You can take advantage of them with:
– 1x, 2x, 3x ETFs
– CFD’s
– Spread Betting
– Binary Options
– My favorite – ES Mini Futures Contracts

Monday 7:51am ET  – Spike Alert & Targets

spikeup1

 

First Target Hit at 10:20am: $1100+ Profit

spikeup1t1

Subscribe

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are presently in the process of merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.

Deutsche Bank to Initiate the Next Financial Crisis – Click Here

They are desperately seeking ways to cut costs and improve profitability. These plans include restructuring and job cuts using highly unconventional measures. Last June (2016), Reuters cited anonymous sources as saying that Commerzbank was exploring the option of hoarding billions of euros in vaults as a way of avoiding paying a penalty to the European Central Bank, which is due because of negative interest rates.

Their main problems are derived mostly from both low and negative interest rates. These lenders are used to depending on interest rate margins for income, while offering some services to depositors at either low or no cost. Low interest rates have significantly eroded these banks’ abilities to make money. It has become difficult for German banks to give incentives to their customers to encourage customers to keep money in their financial institutions. These inefficiencies, and the intense competition within the German banking sector, have already led to serious financial difficulties. If one combines these factors with the new challenge of declining interest rates, what possible positive impact can they expect to incur?

Interestingly, rates are not just low within the context of American history, but they also happen to be at their lowest levels – ever – in over 5,000 years of civilization.

5,000 Years Of Interest Rates – Rates Lower Than 1930’s Depression Era

chart-1

Deutsche Bank is not merely Germany’s biggest bank, but the political role that it plays in Germany is unique when compared to other countries. Deutsche Bank’s importance to Germany is many times greater than that of an investment bank like Lehman Brothers was to the U.S. in 2008. Deutsche Bank is technically a private bank, however, it is informally tied to the government and formally tied to most major German corporations. The bank’s fate will have an impact on all of Germany.

The Italian banking crisis is not only Italy’s problem!

Italy’s non-performing loan issues have now become common knowledge. Who will be forced into dealing with the repercussions of settling Italy’s impaired debt? That is a political question, and the answer depends, in large measure, on who holds Italian bank debt.

The U.S banks are not shielded from these European Continental banking problems. There is a substantial amount of uncertainty and risk.

The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis due to the European Unions’ regulations. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them. The bail-in strategy is, in theory, a mechanism for ensuring fair competition and stability within the financial sector across the Eurozone.

The bail-in process can potentially apply to any liabilities of the institution that are not backed by assets or collateral. The first 100,000 euros ($111,000) in deposits are protected in the sense that they cannot be seized, whereas, any money above that amount can be.

Germany insisted that the bail-in process should prevail.

The Bank for International Settlements stated that German banks are the second most exposed to Italy, after France, with a total exposure of $92.7 billion. Demand for gold has increased!

Italy’s ongoing banking crisis is presenting yet another threat to the stability of the ECB.

Commerzbank’s financial statements revealed that their Italian sovereign debt exposure was 10.8 billion euros ($12.1 billion).

Deutsche Bank’s net credit risk exposure to Italy is 13.3 billion euros as of the end of December 2015. Its gross position in Italy is 35.4 billion euros. Deutsche Bank is sitting on $41.9 trillion worth of derivatives.

Consequences of large bank failures are going to be significant.

Gold Is The Only Safe Haven Left In The World

Gold has remained as a form of currency for many centuries. Whenever countries followed a strict gold standard and used it as their currency, those economies were very stable. But, governments have always surpassed their means with their costly spending and have to leave their gold standard so as to fund their inefficiencies. Currently, gold is now beginning its’ multi-year “BULL MARKET”. Gold is the only asset class which will maintain its store of value during the impending crisis which is on the near horizon. The gold mania is about to be unleashed. While global central banks are now implementing negative interest rates, this is the perfect scenario for gold to surge much higher.

Gold does have historical store of value characteristics. It is held by central banks and institutions as a reserve. They do not want to sell it; on the contrary, many of them want to buy still more and accumulate it. Therefore, gold’s characteristic role, with regard to sovereign reserves, is still intact, even amid the fascinating evolution of central banking and institutional finance that we are witness to today.

This week I shared a detailed video for my newsletter subscribers talking about the big picture trends and price targets for gold, silver, mining stocks, oil, natural gas, the S&P 500 index, coffee, and sugar. We have some huge opportunities unfolding on the monthly charts. If you are looking for some easy, big trading opportunities, then follow my analysis and trades at: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

The much awaited Jackson Hole speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen – and the subsequent nonfarm payrolls data failed to ignite the prospects of a rate hike this September of 2016. The market now forecasts only a 21% probability of a rate hike in this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate hike in December of 2016 stands at just above 50%.

Time and again, I have explained why the Fed cannot hike rates in 2016. Contrary many market experts, my view has stood the test of time and has come to fruition. According to my research, the chances of a rate hike in December of 2016 are also very bleak. Nonetheless, the Fed speakers will continue to “jawbone” the dollar, the way they have been doing for the whole year.

The coming week has a number of Central Banks competing with each other to unleash their monetary easing plan as if that is the only solution to all the economic problems plaguing the world. Even the failure of the past seven years has not deterred them from printing more money from thin air.

$180 Billion Of Bond Buying – Even Larger Than 2009

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan combined are purchasing a whopping $180 billion of bonds monthly, as shown in the chart below. Add to it, the new bond buying program announced by the Bank of England, and the number rises even higher. All three are expected to recommend either adding to their existing bond purchases or extend their duration in their next policy meetings.

This has led the Bond King Bill Gross to warn investors of the dangerous consequences. In a letter to clients, he wrote: “Investors should know that they are treading on thin ice”.

“This watch is ticking because of high global debt and out-of-date monetary/fiscal policies that hurt rather than heal real economies. Sooner rather than later, Yellen’s smooth shot from the fairway will find the deep rough,” reports CNBC.

Silver Is On The Cusp Of A Massive Rally

When investors realize that they are holding worthless currencies, the big money will rush into the precious metals. Consider this: The total world’s investment holdings in silver are a paltry $50.8 billion, compared to $3.04 trillion in gold, as shown in the chart below.

Did you know that the hedge funds alone manage around $2.7 trillion, according to Barclay Hedge data? Even if a small portion of the trillions sloshing around out there decides to enter into silver, the white metal will shoot through the roof.

Traders Are Finally Recognizing The Importance Of Silver

Following the poor jobs report last Friday, traders jumped into silver, thus driving it higher, as shown in the chart below.

As explained in our earlier articles, investors should not only look to buy into the “white metal”, they should also explore options of investing in the silver miners.

What Are The Silver’s Technicals Suggesting?

Silver had a massive run from the lows of $15.83 to $21.22. No markets rise vertically, a 50% Fibonacci correction is a healthy and accepted norm. As seen in the charts below, silver too has corrected 50% of the recent rise.

The weaker hands are out of silver, whereas, the stronger hands have bought the white metal at lower levels. Silver is currently trading above both the 20 – day and the 50-day exponential moving average. This is a sign that it has resumed its uptrend, and is set to rally higher.

Once silver crosses above the highs of $21/oz, it should reach its target of $25/oz.

Conclusion

As Bill Gross says, the world markets are being manipulated by the Central Banks. Consequently, investing is becoming a difficult proposition. You need the help and support of an expert with an edge to invest at the right time and to be positioned propertly for when high volatility strikes.

********

Until volatility picks up we can only focus on short-term extreme oversol/overbought markets for opportunities. Keep watching this space and subscribe our services to get the maximum benefit of timely advice to buy and sell silver and various other asset classes.

The current economic landscape is changing by the day and rarely for the better.  This is from the standpoint of the middle and lower classes.

As negative rates become increasingly part of the new normal, more depositors are swept up by the creeping confiscation of their savings. I expect that the other part of the “cash trap” endgame, the actual elimination of large currency bills, will also soon accelerate. First in Europe where the ECB recently put an end to the printing of €500 bills and soon after everywhere else.

The point is that Central Banks and the FED knows this prolonged period of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is not only highly “irregular”, but that it is harming a healthy environment for investment and economic growth. Yet, they are paralyzed with “fear”.

Perhaps what they do not realize is that it is going to happen anyway. You cannot get back to “normalization” without incentives to save and invest. Sure, when rates go up, there will be a giant sucking sound, like the undertow of the sea after it washes to shore and then goes back out. But in time, as investors and savers get rewarded for saving their monies, they will eventually start investing those savings and that will bring the economy back after the Great Reset.

After this “Great Reset” all investors will see exceptional values if they have some monies, (gold), saved to capitalize on these. Right now? Everybody is afraid to take the risk with assets being so high, and savings so low. Even bankers are afraid, much like political leaders to make the necessary changes.

Investors of all levels of experience are attracted to gold as a solid, tangible and long-term “store of value” that historically has moved independently of other assets. My analysis shows that gold will be implemented to protect ‘global purchasing power’ and minimize losses during our upcoming periods of ‘market shock’. It serves as a high-quality, liquid asset to be used when selling other assets would cause losses.

 

Listen to Recent Phone Call and Gold ForecastClick Here

 

Central Banks of the world’s largest long-term investment portfolios use gold to mitigate portfolio risk in this manner and have been net buyers of gold since 2010.

moabm

Investors should make use of golds’ lack of ‘correlation’ with other assets which makes it the best hedge against currency risk. Though we are in for a period of great financial turmoil, investors can safeguard themselves by investing smartly in gold. Do not be left behind and see your dollar assets lose value. Invest in gold!

 

Gold is the only asset which will increase value:

In todays’ negative interest rate environment, one should definitely be more concerned about the “return of one’s money, than the return on one’s money”. Considering the threat of negative interest rates, it is obvious why people are rediscovering the value of holding gold.

Gold tends to perform well in declining or negative real interest-rate environments. The deeper Central Banks move into negative rate territory, the more gold is going to be supported, as the cost of carry disappears. High real rates are bad for gold but negative real rates are quite good for it!

Gold is the only asset class, which will maintain its value during times of ‘financial crisis’. It has done so previously in the past and I observed its performance during the beginning of the year, in which its status affirms it as the preferred safe haven.

There will be times during this ‘crisis’ when different assets classes will be in focus.  I will continue to guide you as to the best profit making assets, during this period of time. If you are holding any stocks, this current rally is the last chance to liquidate your holdings; gold will give one an excellent buying opportunity within a few weeks of time and should be used to purchase this for the long-term period.

Unfortunately, I foresee very difficult economic times ahead for all.  Therefore, it is best to be prepared and take proactive measures, in advance, so as to avoid the pain rather than regret it later!

Follow both my swing trades and long-term investment positions at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

 

Chris Vermeulen

inteviewkerry

He’s highly bullish on gold and silver and sees new highs ahead once gold breaks the $1400 mark. And that’s not too far ahead. It’s been building and when it hits, there’s no telling how high it will go.

If a bond has a negative yield, then the bondholders will lose their money on their investment. In the long run, their expectations are lower and consequently they lose the incentive to invest — which may have far-reaching repercussions.

Green Bonds Are Changing Investor Expectation’s

The rapid growth of the green bond market has sparked interest from many audiences. 

What are green bonds? Using debt capital markets to fund climate solutions. Green bonds were created to fund projects that have positive environmental and/or climate benefits. The majority of the green bonds issued are green “use of proceeds” or asset-linked bonds.

In this new financial era, how can one ensure that the necessary investments are still coming?  In addition, how can investors ensure that they are still receiving financial returns? Green bonds may very well be the solution.

The green bond market provides an innovative way to obtain both a financial return and receive a positive impact. The main characteristic of a green bond is that their proceeds are allocated exclusively to environmentally friendly projects.

According to HSBC, the green bonds market is rapidly increasing; around $80 billion worth of green bonds could be issued by the end of the year. This would represent almost a 100% year-on-year growth.

greenbonds

In this negative-yield bond era, green bonds represent quite a good deal; 82% of them are rated at investment grade and they satisfy the medium long-term preferences of institutional investors, as well as covering a broad range of sectors. Investors are drawn to both the liquid, fixed-income investments that green bonds offer and the positive impact that they can have.

Many institutional investors, such as pension funds, now have mandates for sustainable and responsible investments and are developing strategies that explicitly address climate risks and opportunities in different asset classes. Green bonds can provide the verification and impact measurement that investors need. In the case of World Bank green bonds and IFC green bonds, they also bring AAA ratings.

“Investors increasingly recognize the threats these forces create for long-term financial value and are increasingly considering it in their investment choices,” said Laura Tlaiye, a Sustainability Advisor at the World Bank, one of the first and largest issuers of green bonds with more than US $7 billion issued in 18 currencies.

Green bonds also give smaller investors a way to vote with their money. The State of Massachusetts, for example, received more than 1,000 orders from investors for a green bond that it issued last year – most of them are individual investors interested in supporting their local government’s investment in the environment.

A holistic view of where the economy is headed. Green Bonds enable capital-raising and investment for new and existing projects with environmental benefits. Recent activity indicates that the market for Green Bonds is developing rapidly. The Green Bond Principles (GBP) are voluntary process guidelines that recommend transparency and disclosure and promote integrity in the development of the Green Bond market by clarifying the approach for issuance of a Green Bond. The GBP are intended for broad use by the market: they provide issuers guidance on the key components involved in launching a credible Green Bond; they aid investors by ensuring availability of information necessary to evaluate the environmental impact of their Green Bond investments and they assist underwriters by moving the market towards standard disclosures which will facilitate transactions.

To help investors evaluate green bonds, MSCI/Barclays and others have also launched green bond indexes which score issuers and check their project selection criteria and management of proceeds so as to ensure the promised use and ongoing reporting.

 

List of Green ETFs for Responsible Investing:

Green bonds have definitely become an exciting market development with demand from investors consistently outstripping supply. If this is of interest to you, take a look at these Green Bond ETFs

If you want to follow my lead as I swing trade and invest long-term using ETFs join me at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

 

Chris Vermeulen