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Year End Commodity & ETF Trend Trading Signals

Well, here we are with only hours left before the year is over. Virtually every investment is up other than the US dollar.

Not much has changed since my last gold market trends report. But I have provided some interesting charts that show us what is possible in the coming weeks for the dollar, gold and natural gas.

US Dollar Trend Analysis – Resistance Levels
The dollar has shown some strength in the past month. It was a no brainer trade for 2009. You were either long gold or short the dollar. The chart below shows the key resistance levels for the $USD. I have a feeling we are going to see the dollar test the 80 -81 levels before rolling over and heading south again.

If this happens then gold and silver will continue to pull back. I am actually hoping the dollar moves higher and gold drops back to test the $1000-1060 level. This would clear the way for gold and the dollar to continue with their longer term trends with increased momentum (dollar collapses, gold goes parabolic).
Dollar Trend

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
The daily gold swing trading chart is really starting to look attractive for a buy signal. Depending on what the US dollar does in the coming days will set the tone for gold.

We could see gold start to rally starting tomorrow or it will become volatile and start to sell off sharply in the coming days. Right now we have very light volume so any moves/breakouts cannot be taken seriously or with a large position.

If the dollar starts to rally we could see the GLD ETF drop to the $97.50 – $103 level.
Gold Trend Trading

Spot Gold Trend Analysis – 18 Day, 1hr Bar Chart
Starting in 2010 I will be providing futures trading analysis and signals so I thought I would provide a chart of the spot gold trend I have been day trading over the holidays.

This may seem like I am going against my #1 trading Rule – Never Trade Against the Trend, but the trend changes depending on time frame and trading style you are using. In short, gold reversed very strong 18 days ago just as we anticipated it would. The selling momentum was so strong it made for excellent gold futures day trading setups which I took advantage of over the past 10 trading days.

The chart below is of the 100 ounce gold GC Feb 10 futures contract which I traded. The chart is shrunk down and does not show my setups, nor does the chart look very sexy, but it clearly shows the direction of the trend and the BIG SELLING VOLUME.

The table shows my recent trades and if you take a close look all of the trades I did were Short Trades. Because the momentum and trend is down on this time frame I only traded perfect short setups (profiting from gold as it loses value).
Gold Futures Trading

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
UNG appears to be trading at resistance and starting to look like its rolling over. It did move above last weeks high which voids the reversal candle we had Tuesday and Thursday, or else it would have been a short setup for us. I don’t chase a trade, that’s my #2 rule, so I am waiting for a possible bounce here, test of resistance then another reversal back down.
Natural Gas Trends

Commodity & ETF Year End Trends:
In short, we continue the waiting game for more setups in the coming weeks as volatility and volume creep back into the market. The dollar and gold are currently trading at pivot points and no one knows which way to play them.

Trading futures run virtually 24 hours a day and have provided some excellent trading opportunities that I will be providing in the coming weeks for traders.

Natural Gas is trading at pivot point and looking ready for another move down.

Crude oil and the board market I feel will top out in the next 2-5 days but nothing worth putting any money on at this time.

I would like to thank everyone for their kind words and support over the past 12 months. I wish you all a happy and safe New Years!

Get My Free Trading Charts:

Chris Vermeulen
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com – Gold Trend Analysis & Signals

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10 Days of Indexes and Commodities

It’s been a great year as we head into the final few trading sessions. The past several weeks the indexes have not done much of anything which is why we are now in cash.

I feel as though the market is about to change direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks. I feel this way for several reasons:

1. NYSE, Dow Jones, S&P500 are all drifting higher into resistance levels on the 10 day, 60 minute charts. Light volume tends to favor higher price hence the reason for the holiday rally.
2. Broad market momentum waves are topping
3. These same indexes are trading at resistance levels from early 2008
4. Money flow is indicating large institutions have been big sellers over the past 3 weeks.
5. US economy I think is worse than most want to think

So take a look at these 10 day charts which clearly show resistance and support trend lines. Each, if broken will lead to a sharp decline. I used ETF’s as substitutes for the indexes.

Dow Jones – DIA – Top Chart
SPY – S&P500 – Middle Chart
NYSE – Bottom Chart

Stock Market Trend

Stock Market Trend

Stocks have started to decouple for the US dollar in recent days so I am not focusing much on what affect the dollar will have on the above indexes.

That being said, the US dollar (UUP etf fund) is at a pivotal point. It’s either going to bounce off the trend line support level (blue line) and send gold back down to test the previous low, or breakdown through the support trend line. A falling dollar will give gold some power to muscle its way back up to the next short term support level.

Dollar and Gold Trends

Dollar and Gold Trends

Yesterday (Tuesday Dec 22nd) we said gold stocks and silver prices would move higher. I consider gold stocks and silver my leading indicators for the price of gold. Today (Wednesday Dec 23rd) gold stocks and silver shot higher – out performing gold by 7:1 which is very bullish for gold.

Crude oil had a large rally today sending the USO oil fund surging 3.5%, confirming a bounce off our support level 2 weeks ago. It could be warming up for another rally.

Natural gas opened lower but put in a strong session as it trended up all day. This also looks very strong and if prices breakout and follow through next week natural gas could be making a real rally for once.

This is a short trading week with Thursday only a half trading session and Friday being closed for Christmas/Holidays. We will not have any low risk setups this week and because we are sitting in cash, let’s take this time to enjoy our family, friends and pets ?

Get my Trading Charts, Reports and Signals:

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com