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The Trump Rally Is Just Getting Started!

Have you ever been presented with an opportunity and missed out on it?  Well, here is an opportunity you Do NOT want to miss out on.

Based upon my unique “Cycle Analytical” work combined with my “Proprietary Predictive Analytics Model, I can assure you that there are new highs to be made in the U.S. stock. Appling my unique metric, which are not available to the public, I can inform you that the stock markets are not overbought or overextended, at present. The market remains in a clear bullish trend!  This next new leg is very sustainable!

 

Technically Speaking, It Is Now Back To “Buy The Dip”:

The SPX, Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all-time highs last Friday, February 10th,2017.  The Trump Rally is just getting started according to Bloomberg.

Investors should expect that the global markets will continue their bull market run throughout the first half of 2017 rather than forming a top which leads to a bear market. “Extremes” have lost their’ meanings, at this point. The Federal Reserve has given the green light to major banks in the U.S. to raise dividends and buy back shares of their companies. The huge thrust in momentum has now returned to the four U.S. stock indexes.

Nicholas Teo of KGI Securities said that: “Ever since his victory in November, global stock markets have been steered by actions events rhetoric emanating from the new commander-in-chief”.

The trigger events show the willingness of the markets to give the Trump Administration a lot more ‘slack’ as we engage into 2017.  Billions of dollars are continuing to flow into the U.S. real estate market from Chinese nationals. They are using their offshore cash reserves to make payments on the properties they have speculated on in the U.S. There are also big-money speculators who have the sophistication needed to circumvent China’s Capital Controls.

Blackrock estimates that there is a whopping $50 trillion in cash “sitting on the sidelines”. This money has come from global central-banks, financial-firm reserves and consumer savings accounts.  Blackstone is keeping nearly one-third of its’ assets in cash. Fund managers have increased their reserves to levels that equal the highest since 2001. This means that there is a lot of liquidity with nowhere to go, but UP.

We are still in the early days of the new Trump Administration and everything seems to be going his way. President Trump’s proposed economic policies are being well received by U.S. businesses, especially Wall Street big banks. His plans are certainly positive – such as deregulation, defunding of various useless federal agencies, simplification of the tax code and lowering taxes. Many people, including some of the best money managers, in the world, are at a loss trying to figure out where to put their money, right now.  However, all that you need to do this year is to follow my lead as I strive to make profitable returns and be on the right side of all markets, and you cannot afford to miss any hugely profitable setup this year!

 

All of the indicators continue to suggest higher prices ahead! 

The Elliott Wave Principle is a description of how groups of people behave. It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism thereby creating specific and measurable patterns. In the chart below, repeating patterns in prices are displayed showing where we are located at any given time. In those repeating patterns, I can predict where we are going next.

 

Wave 5:

Wave 5: Wave five is the last leg in the primary direction of the dominant trend.  Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. Prices will make a new high above the top of wave 3.

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How To Make Money In 2017!

Do you trade like the professionals do? Most traders make the same mistakes – which is why they consistently lose money!  Implementing my winning strategy by receiving SMS text alerts every time we enter or close a trade is the best way to get you setup and be profitable on the same day!  Trading and focusing on my Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) and trading just the hot stocks and sectors for quick oversized gains is my expertise. Therefore, these momentum trades are moving significantly in one direction on heavy volume. The length of time for which I may hold a momentum trade depends on how quickly the trade is moving with trades lasting 3-25 days in length and we look for a7%- 35% potential gain.

Momentum traders are truly a unique group of individuals. Unlike other traders or analysts who dissect a company’s financial statements or chart patterns, a momentum trader is only concerned with stocks in the news. These stocks will be the high percentage and volume movers of the day/week.

Read more: Momentum Traders | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-stock-trader-types/momentum-traders.asp#ixzz4YY8FK9VY
On February 8th, 2017, myself and subscribers closed out our NUGT trade for a 112% profit that we entered into on December 16th.2016,

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Sometimes stocks move very fast.  As I enter any new swing trades, I will immediately send out these alerts to you on your mobile device.

On February 8th, 2017, we entered the ERX at $33.00.  Right after we got into this trade, ERX, (http://etfdb.com/etf/ERX/), we were up 6% to 8% and we closed half our position.  Instantly receiving these alerts on your mobile device can make a huge difference in both time and profits as you saw in the ERX setup!  I always send out my swing trades to my members by SMS, but keep in mind most trades can be entered within a 1-3 day period as I don’t catch exact market bottoms or tops.

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America Is Happy, Again!

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A recent Gallup Poll reported that American’s confidence in the U.S. economy remained strong in January of 2017. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +11, which is the highest monthly average reached in Gallup’s nine-year trend. I just came across this video that is enough to make you start thinking about changing your long term portfolio asset allocation – Watch Video Here

 

So, if you are looking for a simplified and highly accurate pulse on the markets, along with timely swing trades, I urge you to join my newsletter at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com.

 

Chris Vermeulen

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Silver Miners, Gold Miners and the Price Of Gold

Silver and silver mining stocks are front and center for investors and active traders. Because of silvers high volatility (large price swings) it naturally attracts a lot of attention.

First you have seasoned investors who are waiting for the right opportunity to get long or short for the next move. Then you have the active traders playing the day to day price swings. Finally you get the gamblers who are salivating over the potential to double their accounts and are riding the commodity on pure emotions (Fear & Greed). All these things compound the volatility for the investment making it headline news and what everyone wants to be involved in.

The focus of this report is show you where the price of gold, silver and miner stocks are currently trading and what to lookout for in the coming days/weeks. Below is a chart of gold but silver has a similar pattern and will follow or should I say lead the price of gold in percentage terms because of its volatility.

Gold Weekly Chart:

Gold has been testing its long term support level for three weeks. I expect we see price start to move quickly sooner than later but there is potential for it to tread water here until the second half of April. We all know the saying “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we get closer to that date we should start to see money flow into the “Safe Havens” being gold, silver, and miners. While this has not happened many times on the charts I am thinking beyond them and of what the masses are likely to flock to when stocks lose their luster.

Also if you have been following the price of the dollar index you know that its getting a little overbought and when it starts to correct the falling dollar should help send precious metals higher.

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Gold & Silver Miners VS Gold Bullion Performance:

The stock market has certain chart patterns that tell chart readers what the holders of that particular investment is feeling emotionally. Knowing how to read these extreme patterns can yield some big gains and works for most investments types (stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies).

Without getting into the boring technical details precious metal stocks are starting show signs of panic selling which typically happens before a major bottom is put in place. A bottom generally takes a week or two for some type of bottoming pattern or base building to form. This is the most volatile time to be trading these investments so trade with caution.

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Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index:

Bullish percent indexes are a great way to see how popular an investment is. If you do not know what a bullish percent chart is then you can look it up online and learn more. The way I read it is when it’s up over 75-80 it’s a popular investment and everyone is buying it. It also means it’s in a major uptrend. But you must be aware that when everyone is buying something once price starts to turn down you better be one of the first few out the door before everyone else runs for the door and price crashes.

It’s similar but reversed for investments that are below 20. Everyone is selling, no one wants to own it but once the selling momentum stops price should rebound and rally. Keep in mind this indicator is not great for timing, but confirms that what you are looking at is either oversold, neutral or overbought in the BIG picture.

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Weekend Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:

In short, I still like gold, silver, and their related mining stocks. I am watching them very closely for signs of a bottom and will be jumping on that train when the selling momentum looks to have stalled. Keep in mind that all these investments are still in a VERY STRONG DOWN TREND and trying to catch a falling knife is not what I do. Waiting for momentum to shift is my focus as there should be big upside if metals and stocks can find a bottom soon. If gold breaks down below key support as posted on the weekly chart then the uptrend may be over and it will be time to start looking for short positions.

You can get my free weekly reports and ideas here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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What’s Next for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas?

December 13, 2009
The past three weeks have been interesting to watch as the Dow (DIA ETF) has broadened causing traders to be shaken in and out of positions. Commodities have been under pressure as the US dollar has risen. Below are some charts of these investments and what I think could happen in the next couple weeks.

DIA – Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see the broadening formation is bearish as it results in a short term pullback. This type of price action is what frustrates breakout and novice traders. As traders jump into positions once the previous high is broken, they hope for a rally. Instead the market briefly moves higher then reverses and moves down to penetrate the previous pivot low. This is where breakout traders place their stops and as the market knows this, it obliges by moving below this level to shake out these traders before it rallies again.

That being said, it looks like stocks could make a new high this week, just enough to suck in more short term breakout traders before rolling over once again to test a deeper support level. A pullback to the $99-100 level would make for a great buy point.

DIA ETF Trade

DIA ETF Trade

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The strengthening dollar is putting pressure on precious metals with gold testing the first support level. Depending on what the dollar does in the coming days we could see gold test the second support level.

In my opinion gold can test the second support level without triggering any major sell signals for traders and investors. The trend will still be up and it is important to know the horizontal support level is more important than a trend line support level.

GLD Gold Trend

GLD Gold Trend

SLV – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is in the same boat at gold. Only time will tell if we get a bounce or a further test lower. Either way, the underlying trend is still up and we will be able trade it.

SLV Silver Trading

SLV Silver Trading

USO – Oil Exchange Traded Fund
Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.

This is a high risk type of play which I am not taking part in. But I do find it fun to track plays like this for educational reasons.

How to trade Oil

How to trade Oil

UNG – Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund
The natural gas fund is a touchy topic with so many traders. I get emails every day asking why I trade UNG because of the contango and the fact that so many people have lost money with it; they don’t want to touch it again. My answer is very simple, it works perfectly fine for short term trading which lasts 1-20 days. “If it works, Don’t Fix It”.
I do agree UNG is tougher than other ETFs to trade, but it still makes money and that is what our goal is.

Anyways natural gas has found some support and is bouncing around. We could see it trend sideways or up until a test of our blue resistance trend line is reached. From there we can asses the situation for a possible trade.

The underlying trend is down on the monthly and weekly charts so do not get too excited about going long anytime soon.

UNg Natural Gas Trade

UNg Natural Gas Trade

ETF Trading Conclusion:
Overall the market feels a little top heavy and the price action on the charts are saying the same thing. My short term indicators are telling me the Dow (DIA fund) is over bought and ready for a couple days of selling. With any luck we will see a test of support which will flush out most short term traders this week, then a nice low volume rally going into Christmas. On the other hand, the market has been holding up well and prices could continue to drift higher from here. If that is the case we simply continue to hold our current long positions and enjoy the ride.

Silver and gold are testing support levels and if the market continues to rally here, I figure precious metals will follow. But if we see stocks pull back and test support, then we will most likely see the metals pull back further also.

Crude oil has formed a scary looking chart as it flushes out traders on this recent drop. My general rule for spec plays is to buy when the chart looks scary, but is trading at multiple support levels. It is very difficult to buy at these levels but as my good buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says, “Buy when they Cry, Sell when it’s Loud”. Meaning buy when everyone is panicking out of their positions, and sell when everyone is buying into the move usually seen by high volume levels and much higher prices.

Natural Gas is jumping around like crazy. We continue to wait for a tradable price pattern to form in conjunction with a support or resistance level to help put the odds more on our side.

If you would like to receive my Free ETF Trading Newsletter:

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com