Sunday April 25th
Last week the market slowly recovered from the recent sell off in stocks and commodities. So far the market is unfolding as we expected and with any luck there will be a surge of low risk setups across the market in the near future. Take a look at the charts below.
GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.
UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.
USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.
SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.
Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week.
The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.
If you would like to receive my ETF, Stocks or Futures Trading Signals please check out my website at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
December 13, 2009
The past three weeks have been interesting to watch as the Dow (DIA ETF) has broadened causing traders to be shaken in and out of positions. Commodities have been under pressure as the US dollar has risen. Below are some charts of these investments and what I think could happen in the next couple weeks.
DIA – Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see the broadening formation is bearish as it results in a short term pullback. This type of price action is what frustrates breakout and novice traders. As traders jump into positions once the previous high is broken, they hope for a rally. Instead the market briefly moves higher then reverses and moves down to penetrate the previous pivot low. This is where breakout traders place their stops and as the market knows this, it obliges by moving below this level to shake out these traders before it rallies again.
That being said, it looks like stocks could make a new high this week, just enough to suck in more short term breakout traders before rolling over once again to test a deeper support level. A pullback to the $99-100 level would make for a great buy point.
DIA ETF Trade
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The strengthening dollar is putting pressure on precious metals with gold testing the first support level. Depending on what the dollar does in the coming days we could see gold test the second support level.
In my opinion gold can test the second support level without triggering any major sell signals for traders and investors. The trend will still be up and it is important to know the horizontal support level is more important than a trend line support level.
GLD Gold Trend
SLV – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is in the same boat at gold. Only time will tell if we get a bounce or a further test lower. Either way, the underlying trend is still up and we will be able trade it.
SLV Silver Trading
USO – Oil Exchange Traded Fund
Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.
This is a high risk type of play which I am not taking part in. But I do find it fun to track plays like this for educational reasons.
How to trade Oil
UNG – Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund
The natural gas fund is a touchy topic with so many traders. I get emails every day asking why I trade UNG because of the contango and the fact that so many people have lost money with it; they don’t want to touch it again. My answer is very simple, it works perfectly fine for short term trading which lasts 1-20 days. “If it works, Don’t Fix It”.
I do agree UNG is tougher than other ETFs to trade, but it still makes money and that is what our goal is.
Anyways natural gas has found some support and is bouncing around. We could see it trend sideways or up until a test of our blue resistance trend line is reached. From there we can asses the situation for a possible trade.
The underlying trend is down on the monthly and weekly charts so do not get too excited about going long anytime soon.
UNg Natural Gas Trade
ETF Trading Conclusion:
Overall the market feels a little top heavy and the price action on the charts are saying the same thing. My short term indicators are telling me the Dow (DIA fund) is over bought and ready for a couple days of selling. With any luck we will see a test of support which will flush out most short term traders this week, then a nice low volume rally going into Christmas. On the other hand, the market has been holding up well and prices could continue to drift higher from here. If that is the case we simply continue to hold our current long positions and enjoy the ride.
Silver and gold are testing support levels and if the market continues to rally here, I figure precious metals will follow. But if we see stocks pull back and test support, then we will most likely see the metals pull back further also.
Crude oil has formed a scary looking chart as it flushes out traders on this recent drop. My general rule for spec plays is to buy when the chart looks scary, but is trading at multiple support levels. It is very difficult to buy at these levels but as my good buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says, “Buy when they Cry, Sell when it’s Loud”. Meaning buy when everyone is panicking out of their positions, and sell when everyone is buying into the move usually seen by high volume levels and much higher prices.
Natural Gas is jumping around like crazy. We continue to wait for a tradable price pattern to form in conjunction with a support or resistance level to help put the odds more on our side.
If you would like to receive my Free ETF Trading Newsletter:
So far this week has been generous with our commodity ETFs moving higher, other than natural gas which is clearly in a bear market. Each of the commodity ETF trading charts below is at a different stage and it will be interesting to see how things unfold in the coming weeks.
Trading ETFs is very rewarding when done properly and using multiple time frames for timing your entry and exit points is crucial. My main focus is on the weekly and daily charts but I use a 30 minute intraday chart when the time comes to actually pick an exact buy or sell point. Below I have provided both the weekly and daily chart so you can see how the same ETF looks completely different on the two time frames.
GLD ETF Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts
The weekly chart a nice multi month rally but is now starting to go parabolic (straight up). When this happens I start tightening my stops so that I can lock in maximum gains. Now jump over to the daily chart and notice that gold has rallied longer than the previous move in early October. It looks overbought and ready for a pullback. Pullbacks on strong rallies like this tend to be hard and fast as stop orders get triggered sending prices tumbling down on heavy volume. My general thought is 5 days up in an investment is given back in 1 down day. This is why I scale out of positions when they are looking long in the tooth and ready for profit taking.
Gold ETF Trading Newsletter
SLV ETF Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts
Silver had been under performing gold for several weeks but made up some nice ground this week. Gold and silver tend to trade together so if gold pulls back I figure silver will also. That being said the weekly chart of silver looks ready to rocket higher for another week or so.
Silver ETF Trading Newsletter
USO Fund Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts
While gold and silver have been moving higher oil has been flagging sideways taking a breather. Both the weekly and the daily charts are aligned for a nice move higher if the trend and charts follow through on their patterns. We could get some tradable action in the next couple days.
Oil ETF Trading Newsletter
UNG Fund Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts
Natural gas is really starting to slide. Wednesday UNG dipped below the Sept low of $8.94 by a couple cents then moved up into the close. Overall it’s not bullish. This could be the start of a waterfall sell off which is a sharp heavy volume sell off that lasts 3-5 days.
Natural Gas ETF Trading Newsletter
Commodity ETF Trading Conclusion:
To sum everything up the gold and silver ETFs are on fire as they continue to surge higher. Being ready for a sharp reversal is important if you want to lock in gains on a portion of your position.
Crude oil is taking its time but looking ripe for a breakout higher. We continue to watch for some action.
Natural gas continues to get pushed down and it’s not looking good for higher prices anytime soon. We are waiting for a shorting opportunity or an oversold condition to play a 1-5 day bounce.
Quick Trading Tip: If you have a position which has done well and has moved up for an extended period of time be sure to draw some trend lines and tighten your stop, or set a stop, under a tight trend line. Sell some of your position (25-50%) to lock in gains and let the core position continue to mature. If you get a pullback to a support level (previous breakout level) you can buy back your other part of your position at a lower price.
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Chris Vermeulen
Disclaimer: I currently own the GLD ETF.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-11-18 23:28:562014-03-10 10:57:27Precious Metals & Energy ETF Trading Report
Everyone is talking about commodities as the place to be in the coming months. I tend to agree, but it is still important to know where each commodity is trading to maximize returns and reduce risk.
That being said we are also seeing money flow out of the small cap stocks and into the large cap blue chips Stocks. These companies prove year after year that they are profitable and that’s where investors have been putting their money the past couple weeks. This can be seen by simply looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 index as the Russell has dropped in value much more than the Dow. But if we see the market turn back up and make a new yearly high in the coming weeks, small cap stocks will most likely provide explosive opportunities for traders.
Below is some analysis on gold, silver, natural gas and oil
GLD ETF Trading – Weekly Trading Chart
By looking at the weekly chart of gold we can see two simple things.
1 – Each breakout is happening quicker as money continues to move into gold.
2 – This step like pattern (bull flags) is very powerful and can continue for a very long time.
GLD ETF Trading – Daily Trading Chart
This chart shows the same price action but on a daily chart. It also shows one way to find and trade low risk setups for the GLD ETF traded fund.
Gold Newsletter
SLV ETF Trading – Weekly Trading Chart
Silver ETF trading has not been as exciting. Silver has yet to breakout above the 2008 high. It is actually trading at a major resistance level and still has some work to be done before looking really bullish in my eyes. This is acting like major resistance level for two main reasons.
1 – It is testing the 2008 highs where a lot of traders bought silver over a 5-6 month period. There are a lot of sellers to flush out before moving higher.
2 – The drop in silver price in late 2008 was so scary for investors who bought at $16-20 that they cannot believe they are getting their money back. I think this is making a higher volume of investors sell their positions at break even because they just want out after seeing 50% loss at one point last year.
Silver Newsletter
UNG Fund Trading – Daily Trading Chart
UNG has been sliding lower and lower since hitting its head on resistance back in October. The gap down on Friday is bearish indicating traders are starting to panic out of UNG and willing to get out at any price.
Natural Gas Newsletter
UNG Fund Trading – Natural Gas Seasonality Timing
UNG and the seasonality chart seem to be spot on for timing the price of natural gas. Keeping an eye on seasonality and general market seasonal patterns can really help improve ones performance. It may be better to trade stocks or commodities, or maybe just carry more cash depending on the timing and situation the market is in.
Natural Gas Newsletter
USO Fund Trading – Daily Trading Chart
USO has broken out from its large multi month consolidation from August – early October and is now forming a bull flag. While this flag could last a couple months I have feeling we will see a breakdown or a breakout sooner than later. This is just a gut feel and I will continue to watch and wait for a low risk setup.
Crude Oil Newsletter
Commodity Trading Newsletter Conclusion:
To sum up next weeks market action I feel it will not be anything to write home about. Gold and silver will most likely trade sideways or up, natural gas should continue lower and crude oil should trade sideways. With any luck stocks will continue to rally and test the highs once again.
GLD ETF continues to be our investment of choice as it provides the more accurate low risk setups time and time again. With any luck we could get some low risk setups this week but I am not counting on it.
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Chris Vermeulen
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How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold – We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil & gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.
How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart
How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.
Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance?.
To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Today for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.
Gold Newsletter
How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.
Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.
How To Trade Crude Oil Breakout
How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart
USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.
How to Trade Oil
How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart
Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.
How to trade Natural Gas
How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.
The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.
The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.
How to Trade UNG
How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:
Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETF’s and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.
I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues??? Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues?? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples money.
If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports visit this webpage to join my newsletter: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-09-09 20:16:442014-03-10 11:11:30How to Trade Gold, Natural Gas & Crude Oil ETF Funds
Another crazy week in commodities with precious metals and precious metal stocks surging higher on heavy volume, while natural gas and crude oil move lower. Money seems to be rotating out of energy and into precious metals.
Spot Gold Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
Gold jumped higher today breaking out of its 6 month pennant pattern. If prices can hold into the weekend then I expect the $1000 per ounce to be reached quickly. Also Gold stocks took off like rockets, which are a strong sign that gold will follow through on this breakout. It will be interesting to see what happens from here.
Gold Newsletter
Spot Silver Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
Silver and silver stocks are shooting higher as well.
Silver Newsletter
Natural Gas – Monthly Trading Chart
Natural gas continues to trade lower. The good news is that the price of natural gas is now at a major support level, which was formed as far back as 1996. The weekly natural gas chart shows much of the same price action that oil had before reversing to the up side in February of this year. I would not be surprised, if we see buyers stepping into natural gas at this level.
Natural Gas Newsletter
Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart
Crude oil continues to trade within its bullish wedge pattern. We will be looking for a low risk entry point for oil this month using the daily chart.
Crude Oil Newsletter
Commodity Trading Conclusion:
Precious metals are showing strength while the energy sector continues to have selling pressure. Gold, silver, natural gas and oil look ready to make big moves in the coming weeks and, being positioned on the right side, will generate some massive profits.
Staying focused for low risk entry points is important when volatility and emotions are running high. The excitement/stress for traders this week is very high. With precious metals and precious metal stocks breaking out today on massive volume, it has traders excited or in a panic, if they are not positioned yet. To add more fire to the week, natural gas continues to fall, triggering a panic sell reaction by many investors/traders.
I do like precious metals as a bull play here, but risk is a little higher than I would like. The past couple months precious metals have been jumping around like a yoyo, making it very difficult to find a low risk entry points.
I know many traders are in serious pain, because they bought natural gas a couple months ago, expecting a rally which did not happen. I would like to mention that I am seriously starting to think about scaling into Natural Gas over the next 1-2 months. Natural gas reminds me of a Canadian fund XTR, which I scaled into last February and am now sitting with a very healthy gain, not to mention a 16% dividend. I feel Nat Gas will pay off huge over the long run, but it will take some time to bottom.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Newsletter or my Trading Signals visit my website at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Commodities continue to trade at their pivot points while the pressure rises!
As mentioned in my last report precious metals are trading at support, this is referred to as a pivot point. With any luck we will see gold and silver rally Thursday and Friday, but it that fails I figure PM’s will slide quickly to lower levels.
I would like to note that today gold had some strange intraday movements which I think was some type of manipulation of prices. With today’s bullish looking candle in gold (GLD) it was indicating that gold was bouncing off support which would trigger buyers for tomorrow. But some BIG sellers stepped in pulling prices back down to close below the mid point of today’s price action. I cannot say I like seeing that happen.
GLD Gold Bullion Fund
Gold posted a nice intraday gain but gave it all back going into the close. This is not the best price action for higher prices but not much we can do. Let’s see if prices hold up over our support trend line and continue the move up.
Gold Newsletter Trading Chart
Gold Miner Stocks ETF
Gold stocks took it on the chin yesterday with both gold moving lower and equities. The extra downward pressure caused a trend line break. Some damage was done but we still could get a bounce.
Gold Stock ETF Trading Newsletter
SLV Silver Bullion Fund
Silver put in a nice bounce today while gold traded flat. I find silver moves more naturally than gold because it is not as popular and because the USA does not manipulate it like gold which is tied to the Dollar. Silvers move higher today is a positive indicator showing us that there are buyers for gold, but unfortunately the bigger force pushed prices back down intraday.
Silver SLV ETF Newsletter Trading Chart
USO Oil Fund – Weekly Trend Chart
Oil is trending sideways and taking a breather. I expect to see a breakout to the up side but this could still be a few weeks away. I will keep an eye on it for a low risk entry point.
Crude Oil USO ETF Newsletter Trading Chart
UNG Natural Gas Fund
Natural gas is still trending down which can be seen clearly on the weekly chart. The farther gas continues to sell down, the larger the bounce/potential we will have in the future. Don’t rush this trade; let’s wait for it to come to us.
Natural Gas Trading Newsletter Chart
Technical Traders Conclusion:
The broad market put in a solid bounce today as buyers stepped back in to accumulate shares.
Gold and silver are trying to find support to start a new leg higher.
Silver is leading the way which is always a good sign for gold and gold stocks.
Energy is not looking as hot, but once we see natural gas bottom and start heading higher it should be fun. We continue to focus on low risk setups for gold and silver while we wait for some signals from energy sector to come our way.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Technical Traders Charts visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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