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Gold, Silver, Dollar Cycles – Part III

Gold is setting up for a historic rally based on my analysis.  Recent news provides further evidence that the Precious Metals and Currencies are in for a wild ride.  Just this week, news that China’s reserves fell below $3 Trillion as well as the implications that the fall to near $2T in reserves could happen before the end of 2017.  Additionally, we have recent news that the EU may be under further strain with regards to Greece, the IMF and debt.  The accumulation of Precious Metals should be on everyone’s mind as well as the potential for a breakout rally.

 

Based on my analysis, I would estimate that near June or July 2017, Gold will be near $1315 ~ $1341 (+13% from recent lows).  This level correlates to a Fibonacci frequency that has been in place for over 3 years now.  A second Fibonacci frequency rate would put the project advancement levels, possibly closer to October/November 2017, near $1421 (+21% from recent lows).  After these levels are reached, I expect a pullback to near $1261 if the Gold rally ends near $1315~1341 or to near $1308~1309 if the Gold rally ends near $1421.  This pullback would setup a massive next wave rally to $1585 or $1731.  So, if you need confirmation of this move, just wait for any rally to end above $1315, then wait for a pullback below $1280 or $1315 and BUY.

 

Subscribers and followers of my work profited handsomely this month locking a 112% profit with NUGT ETF with my service at ActiveTradingPartners.

 

Remember, the volatility expansion I am expecting in the VIX near March/April will likely be the precursor event to a much larger volatility expansion later this year.  I can’t accurately detail the scale and scope of the projected March/April event other than it will likely be larger than the last VIX expansion.  I expect these global debt events to unravel the low volatility activity we have been seeing and shake up global markets/currencies.  Within this process, Precious Metals will likely see a massive upside run as a protection from uncertainty and risk.

 

 

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Silver Rally

Much like Gold, the other shiny metal is set for incredible runs as well.  Given my Fibonacci frequency analysis, a similar type of patter may occur in Silver.  Before we get too much further into this analysis, let me be clear about one thing.  We are already nearly +50% towards the upside rally target in Silver based on simple Fibonacci frequency.  This target is $19.10.  This does not mean this is the end of the run (yet).  It means we have already achieved some success in one level of predictive analysis and now we need to see if the second Fibonacci frequency plays out.  The second Fibonacci frequency target is $20.78 (nearly +25% from recent lows)

 

Much like the Gold analysis, after these levels are reached, I expect a retracement/pullback to levels that reflect the Fibonacci frequencies before a follow through rally continues.  The first Fibonacci frequency pullback range is $18.26~$17.85.  The second, larger, Fibonacci frequency pullback range is $19.50~$18.82.  Case in point, these retracement levels are based on what I can determine as common Fibonacci frequencies.  The pullbacks could be deeper and reflect more uncommon frequency functions.  As of right now, I don’t believe that will be the case – but I could be wrong on this matter.  In any event, once the rally points ($19.10 or $20.78) are reached and Silver pulls back to below my retracement objectives ($18.26~$17.85 or $19.50~$18.82 respectively), look for long entry positions or accumulate more physical metals.  Want to know what my upside “second wave” objective might be based on my frequency analysis for Silver?

 

Silver Charts – Daily & Weekly

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SIH17_Weekly

Seeing as though you have been so patient in reading my analysis/article regarding these VIX cycle patterns and what I believe could happen with the US and global markets, I’m going to shed a little light into the future cycle phases of Silver.  We’ll focus on Silver for one reason, it is a cheaper precious metal for most traders to participate in and it has some very interesting facets of cycle/Fibonacci analysis.  One key date range that keeps appearing in my cycle analysis is April 17th through April 24th.

 

Additionally, June 26, July 31 and August 14 appear to be key cycle dates.  Given my earlier analysis, I suspect the April dates will be critical to the VIX cycle spike that I’m expecting.  It could also drive further expansion or price rotation in the Gold, Silver and OIL charts.  What is interesting about these Fibonacci Time/Price “inflection points” is that they can be drivers of many outcomes (rallies, collapses, rotations, tops or bottoms).  They simply tell us that we need to be aware of these dates and they may, and will likely, present key information for future decision making.

 

Now, onto the extended projections for Silver.  If my first, shorter, Fibonacci frequency is correct, any subsequent (second wave) rally will likely start near $17.85~$18.15 sometime near or after April 10, 2017.  This second phase rally will likely run to near $21.46 before finding resistance (possibly slightly higher).  Target objective date ranges for this rally to end are June 19 through July 24.

 

If my second, longer/larger, Fibonacci frequency analysis is correct, any subsequent (second wave) rally will likely start near $18.80  sometime near or after May 8, 2017 and run to near $24.85 before finding resistance (possibly higher).  Target objective date ranges for this rally to end are July 3 through August 7 (or later).

 

 

Remember, these second wave projections in Silver represent a 20.5% and 32.85% rally from my projected retracement levels.  These are massive moves and I hope you are all able to take advantage of these triggers.  Gold should move in somewhat similar manners – so pay attention.  Smart traders and followers of ATP newsletter may take advantage of trades to play these moves.

 

USD (US Dollar) and Foreign Currencies

I touched on this topic earlier, yet I feel the need to provide further documentation regarding my belief that the USD will continue to enjoy renewed strength at least for the next few months.  First, I expect the global weakness in foreign markets to continue to propel the USD and the US stock market to greater attempts at new highs.  I believe large amounts of money will keep pouring into the US markets for reasons that are obvious to most – US strength and capabilities for growth.  As I often tell my clients, if the US is growing, so is the rest of the world.  The current situation is a bit different though as the US markets and currency is, as I believe, going to be a standout marketplace in a global pot of debt and confusion.

 

There is one level of resistance on the USD that we have to be concerned with, the $102.25 level.  Beyond that, I believe the USD could reach $104~105 before August 2017.  The possibility that a VIX expansion could drive the USD higher would be more highly correlated if there is some external (global) event that provides a catalyst for a stronger US Dollar.  For example, a crisis in Europe, Greece or Asia that undermines expected currency valuations and results in strength in the USD.  Right now, I would put that possibility at about 50/50 given some of the news items I’m seeing and the continued fundamental strength of the US economy.

USD Daily & Weekly Charts

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USD_Weekly

 

The EURUSD relationship will continue to see downward pressure with a likely target objective near 1.035 as a first target.  This downward pressure could drive the EURUSD valuations well below this level, but I feel the potential for the EURUSD falling below the 1.00 level is still far off.  It would take a global cataclysmic event to drive the EURUSD values below PAR.  I’m not saying it could happen, but I am saying I don’t see it happening anytime soon (without a global cataclysmic event).

 

My Fibonacci frequency target levels for the EURUSD are 1.014 and 0.999.  As I stated, I don’t believe there is much downside risk below 0.99 unless the EU completely collapses.  I still feel the Euro will survive as a global currency near PAR with the USD.

 

EURUSD Daily & Weekly Charts

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Take a look at some of my recent trades to see how we’ve been able to generate profits for our valued members.

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I hope you have enjoyed my analysis of the VIX cycle patterns and how the relate to opportunities for all traders?  If you find this type of analysis helpful and want to take advantage of clear, concise and profitable trading signals, visit ActiveTradingPartners.com where I share even more detailed analysis and trading triggers with my members.

John Winston
Co-Author: Chris Vermeulen
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

The Trump Rally Is Just Getting Started!

Have you ever been presented with an opportunity and missed out on it?  Well, here is an opportunity you Do NOT want to miss out on.

Based upon my unique “Cycle Analytical” work combined with my “Proprietary Predictive Analytics Model, I can assure you that there are new highs to be made in the U.S. stock. Appling my unique metric, which are not available to the public, I can inform you that the stock markets are not overbought or overextended, at present. The market remains in a clear bullish trend!  This next new leg is very sustainable!

 

Technically Speaking, It Is Now Back To “Buy The Dip”:

The SPX, Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all-time highs last Friday, February 10th,2017.  The Trump Rally is just getting started according to Bloomberg.

Investors should expect that the global markets will continue their bull market run throughout the first half of 2017 rather than forming a top which leads to a bear market. “Extremes” have lost their’ meanings, at this point. The Federal Reserve has given the green light to major banks in the U.S. to raise dividends and buy back shares of their companies. The huge thrust in momentum has now returned to the four U.S. stock indexes.

Nicholas Teo of KGI Securities said that: “Ever since his victory in November, global stock markets have been steered by actions events rhetoric emanating from the new commander-in-chief”.

The trigger events show the willingness of the markets to give the Trump Administration a lot more ‘slack’ as we engage into 2017.  Billions of dollars are continuing to flow into the U.S. real estate market from Chinese nationals. They are using their offshore cash reserves to make payments on the properties they have speculated on in the U.S. There are also big-money speculators who have the sophistication needed to circumvent China’s Capital Controls.

Blackrock estimates that there is a whopping $50 trillion in cash “sitting on the sidelines”. This money has come from global central-banks, financial-firm reserves and consumer savings accounts.  Blackstone is keeping nearly one-third of its’ assets in cash. Fund managers have increased their reserves to levels that equal the highest since 2001. This means that there is a lot of liquidity with nowhere to go, but UP.

We are still in the early days of the new Trump Administration and everything seems to be going his way. President Trump’s proposed economic policies are being well received by U.S. businesses, especially Wall Street big banks. His plans are certainly positive – such as deregulation, defunding of various useless federal agencies, simplification of the tax code and lowering taxes. Many people, including some of the best money managers, in the world, are at a loss trying to figure out where to put their money, right now.  However, all that you need to do this year is to follow my lead as I strive to make profitable returns and be on the right side of all markets, and you cannot afford to miss any hugely profitable setup this year!

 

All of the indicators continue to suggest higher prices ahead! 

The Elliott Wave Principle is a description of how groups of people behave. It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism thereby creating specific and measurable patterns. In the chart below, repeating patterns in prices are displayed showing where we are located at any given time. In those repeating patterns, I can predict where we are going next.

 

Wave 5:

Wave 5: Wave five is the last leg in the primary direction of the dominant trend.  Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. Prices will make a new high above the top of wave 3.

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How To Make Money In 2017!

Do you trade like the professionals do? Most traders make the same mistakes – which is why they consistently lose money!  Implementing my winning strategy by receiving SMS text alerts every time we enter or close a trade is the best way to get you setup and be profitable on the same day!  Trading and focusing on my Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) and trading just the hot stocks and sectors for quick oversized gains is my expertise. Therefore, these momentum trades are moving significantly in one direction on heavy volume. The length of time for which I may hold a momentum trade depends on how quickly the trade is moving with trades lasting 3-25 days in length and we look for a7%- 35% potential gain.

Momentum traders are truly a unique group of individuals. Unlike other traders or analysts who dissect a company’s financial statements or chart patterns, a momentum trader is only concerned with stocks in the news. These stocks will be the high percentage and volume movers of the day/week.

Read more: Momentum Traders | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-stock-trader-types/momentum-traders.asp#ixzz4YY8FK9VY
On February 8th, 2017, myself and subscribers closed out our NUGT trade for a 112% profit that we entered into on December 16th.2016,

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Sometimes stocks move very fast.  As I enter any new swing trades, I will immediately send out these alerts to you on your mobile device.

On February 8th, 2017, we entered the ERX at $33.00.  Right after we got into this trade, ERX, (http://etfdb.com/etf/ERX/), we were up 6% to 8% and we closed half our position.  Instantly receiving these alerts on your mobile device can make a huge difference in both time and profits as you saw in the ERX setup!  I always send out my swing trades to my members by SMS, but keep in mind most trades can be entered within a 1-3 day period as I don’t catch exact market bottoms or tops.

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America Is Happy, Again!

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A recent Gallup Poll reported that American’s confidence in the U.S. economy remained strong in January of 2017. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +11, which is the highest monthly average reached in Gallup’s nine-year trend. I just came across this video that is enough to make you start thinking about changing your long term portfolio asset allocation – Watch Video Here

 

So, if you are looking for a simplified and highly accurate pulse on the markets, along with timely swing trades, I urge you to join my newsletter at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com.

 

Chris Vermeulen