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The New Gold Rush Of 2017!

Gold to Regain Its Gleam!

One question that gold investors are asking now is, will 2017 be as spectacular for the yellow metal as it was in 2016? The short and sweet answer to this is YES.

The dollar, gold and the major U.S. stock exchanges will all see new highs. Gold is currently in a “complex corrective correction” while experiencing its’ last pullback, beforehand.

Both the short-term outlook and the long-term outlook for gold is BULLISH!  Trumps’ victory win is a positive for gold bulls. Policy uncertainty and slowing growth, following a Trump win, will stoke the yellow metals’ price in 2017.

Gold prices have been under pressure since the Trump victory, but the long-term scenario for gold is that it is parabolic. The global economy is still in contraction. Global Center Bankers continue with monetary easing, leading to currency debasement. Interest rates continue to slide into negative territory in Europe and Asia.  Gold’s investment appeal will encounter a period of time before it generates positive yields. Gold, as an investment, will once again be back in vogue. As prices rally, investment demand will only rise further, taking everyone by surprise.

The demand for gold jewelry has been declining within the large gold-consuming nations. The gold investors will call the shots in this new ‘bull’ market of gold.  Current supply constraint has cushioned gold prices from the rally in the U. S. dollar.

This is the last great buying opportunity for gold before it makes its’ next historic run in 2017 and beyond.

 

Excessive Pessimism: 2.0
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BUY GOLD IS PRESENTED

Latest Value(s):

– Last Reading: 1.0

– Extreme Values:

– Excessive Optimism: 8.0

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Excessive Pessimism: 30:
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BUY GOLD IS PRESENTED

Latest Value(s):

– Last Reading: 34.0

– Extreme Values:

– Excessive Optimism: 75.0

– Excessive Pessimism: 30.0

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Gold Hedgers Positions

Latest Value(s):

– Last Reading: -134022.0

Extreme Values:

The green dotted line is 1 standard deviation above the 3-year average;
the red dotted line is 1 standard deviation below the 3-year average.

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The Drivers!

A key factor that has driven investments in gold is the negative interest rate in Europe, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland. The sovereign debt of approximately one third of the developed countries traded with a negative yield while an additional 40% of the countries had yields below 1%.

Gold prices will be driven more by its’ value as an ‘investment asset class’. Gold will supersede investments in other ‘asset classes’ such as equity and bonds in due time.

The massive U.S. debt continues to spiral out of control. The Treasury Department’s printing presses are cranking out hundreds of billions of dollars in new money. European countries are imploding financially and the entire European Union is at risk of a collapse.  These ‘geopolitical’ factors will be driving the demand for gold as a ‘safe haven”.

The global ‘retail’ investment market is well positioned for growth what with demand for gold in China, India, Germany and the U.S. for 2017.

Social media is a ‘key driver’ which is critical in both China and India. Financial advisors and financial websites are the key drivers in the U.S. markets. In Germany, banks play the most important influence; ‘Protect wealth against the system’.  It has a competitive advantage compared to other investment options.

 

Jordan Eliseo, Chief Economist at precious-metals dealer ABC Bullion, says “Gold retreated about 18 percent from its year-to-date high. Afterward, it gained 26 percent in the first half of 2016.  The decline so far, this year has been about 15 percent from its year-to-date high.  Gold, is setting up for another rally in fashion like last year. The recent correction has already drawing in some investors to buy what they see as cheap metal.”

 

On December 14th my trading partner accurately forecasted the recent bottom in gold which you can see in this gold market forecast.

December 14th Forecast chart:

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He then took things a step further and entered into a NUGT (3x long gold miners ETF) with subscribers and recently locked in 50% profit on the first half and is up over 70% on the balance as of Fridays closing price.

 

 

GOLD WEEKLY CHART REMAINS IN DOWNTREND

The constructing on this new infrastructure is going to require a lot of new money. The country is already close to $20 trillion in debt, so if the administration plans to make this one of their priorities, it is going to have to print it.

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‘THE GREAT RESET’

Nixon closed the gold window on August 15th, 1971 and consequently, the world entered a new era.  For the first time in history, all the world’s monies were unbacked fiat currencies, adrift on a sea of floating exchange rates.  This stopped the redemption of currency for gold. Today, gold reserves are nothing more than an asset listed on the FEDS’ balance sheet.  Gold had stopped being an integral part of our financial monetary system

At the top of international commerce, money managers had always known the dangers of ‘currency risk’, but now every currency has become a ‘soft currency’. Recognition of ‘currency risk’ seeped down into the knowledge chain, but on the street of personal financial management, despite it being 45 years later, not many have caught on to the concept.

 

To Live And/Or Continue Living the American Dream

Golds’ strength is in the role of ‘wealth protection’. It is a ‘safehaven’ and its ‘independence’ from the global financial system makes it a great investment for the future. Gold is still good value for those who do not own any to accumulate ounces.

In a few days, I will be publishing a piece talking about the shift in the economy and what I call “The Great Transfer of Wealth”. Be sure to join my free newsletter below to receive this special report!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Weekly Forecast & Setup – Jan 18 2017

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Silver Miners, Gold Miners and the Price Of Gold

Silver and silver mining stocks are front and center for investors and active traders. Because of silvers high volatility (large price swings) it naturally attracts a lot of attention.

First you have seasoned investors who are waiting for the right opportunity to get long or short for the next move. Then you have the active traders playing the day to day price swings. Finally you get the gamblers who are salivating over the potential to double their accounts and are riding the commodity on pure emotions (Fear & Greed). All these things compound the volatility for the investment making it headline news and what everyone wants to be involved in.

The focus of this report is show you where the price of gold, silver and miner stocks are currently trading and what to lookout for in the coming days/weeks. Below is a chart of gold but silver has a similar pattern and will follow or should I say lead the price of gold in percentage terms because of its volatility.

Gold Weekly Chart:

Gold has been testing its long term support level for three weeks. I expect we see price start to move quickly sooner than later but there is potential for it to tread water here until the second half of April. We all know the saying “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we get closer to that date we should start to see money flow into the “Safe Havens” being gold, silver, and miners. While this has not happened many times on the charts I am thinking beyond them and of what the masses are likely to flock to when stocks lose their luster.

Also if you have been following the price of the dollar index you know that its getting a little overbought and when it starts to correct the falling dollar should help send precious metals higher.

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Gold & Silver Miners VS Gold Bullion Performance:

The stock market has certain chart patterns that tell chart readers what the holders of that particular investment is feeling emotionally. Knowing how to read these extreme patterns can yield some big gains and works for most investments types (stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies).

Without getting into the boring technical details precious metal stocks are starting show signs of panic selling which typically happens before a major bottom is put in place. A bottom generally takes a week or two for some type of bottoming pattern or base building to form. This is the most volatile time to be trading these investments so trade with caution.

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Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index:

Bullish percent indexes are a great way to see how popular an investment is. If you do not know what a bullish percent chart is then you can look it up online and learn more. The way I read it is when it’s up over 75-80 it’s a popular investment and everyone is buying it. It also means it’s in a major uptrend. But you must be aware that when everyone is buying something once price starts to turn down you better be one of the first few out the door before everyone else runs for the door and price crashes.

It’s similar but reversed for investments that are below 20. Everyone is selling, no one wants to own it but once the selling momentum stops price should rebound and rally. Keep in mind this indicator is not great for timing, but confirms that what you are looking at is either oversold, neutral or overbought in the BIG picture.

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Weekend Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:

In short, I still like gold, silver, and their related mining stocks. I am watching them very closely for signs of a bottom and will be jumping on that train when the selling momentum looks to have stalled. Keep in mind that all these investments are still in a VERY STRONG DOWN TREND and trying to catch a falling knife is not what I do. Waiting for momentum to shift is my focus as there should be big upside if metals and stocks can find a bottom soon. If gold breaks down below key support as posted on the weekly chart then the uptrend may be over and it will be time to start looking for short positions.

You can get my free weekly reports and ideas here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

We don’t hear much about gold and silver anymore on the news. This time last year you could not go 5 minutes without a TV or radio station talking about them. Why is this? Simple really, precious metals have been building a Stage 1 Basing Pattern for the last 12 months. This boring sideways trading range is how the market gets most of those long holders out of an investment before it starts another move up. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

We all know time is money so the above statement makes a lot of sense doesn’t it? Instead of having your money sitting in an investment that has clearly displayed a large sideways range with month and possibly years before any significant breakout will occur, why would you want their money in it doing nothing? There are other opportunities which you could be putting your money into that could generate more gains until the precious metals sector sets up with a high probability trading pattern.

The good news is that gold, silver and precious metal miner stocks are forming a very large Stage 1 Accumulation pattern on the weekly chart. This points to a multi month rally in prices if they breakout above our resistance levels.

 

Gold & Gold Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis:

The chart below shows a lot of analysis and to the untrained eye this may look messy and confusing, so take your time to review it. In short, what I am showing are sideways price patterns using the previous highs and lows for support and resistance levels. The analysis shows the shift in prices from bearish (down), to Neutral (sideways). The exciting part about this pattern is that a new bull market should emerge if my analysis is correct. Now, I’m not talking about 5 -10% move here, I’m talking about a multi month and possibly a yearlong rally in precious metals that could allow some individuals to retire early if played properly…

A break above our red dotted resistance lines should trigger aggressive buying in gold miners along with physical gold bullion.

Gold Miners ETFs

In the past month I have been giving out some of my Stage 1 trading ideas which have generated some decent gains for those who follow along. All but one have generated gains with FSLR 12.5%, FB 12%, RIMM 54%, AAPL 5%, TLT 2.5%, XLU 1.5%, and KOL down -5.2%. Keep in mind that you can follow my trading charts live for free and get some of my stock and ETF trading ideas here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

 

Silver & Silver Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis:

This chart of silver and silver miner stocks (SIL), shows a very similar pattern to that of its big shiny sister (Yellow Gold). Silver carries a lot more risk because of its industrial usage. Also this commodity is thinly traded and can move very quickly on a daily basis compared to gold. Because of these quick price movements it has attracted a lot of speculative money which also has increased the volatility. More often than not silver will move 2-3 times more on a percentage bases than that of yellow gold.

Silver Miners ETFs

 

Battle of the Miner ETFs Weekly Performance:

This chart compares three precious metals miner ETFS (GDX – Gold Miners, SIL – Silver Miners, NUGT 3x Leveraged Gold Miners).

Silver miners have held up the best because the herd saw how big the move was a year ago and are front running the next potential rally. But, depending on how you read the charts and sentiment it may be pointing to the dormant gold miners for a bigger than expected rally. But debating which one will breakout and run the most is a conversation/debate of its own and even I can argue both sides. The safe play is that even if gold miners (GDX & GDXJ) underperform the silver miners (SIL), the NUGT which is 3x leveraged gold miners should be the same if not outperform silver miners.

Precious Metals Mining Stocks

 

Precious Metals & Miners Trading Conclusion:

In short, I favor trading the miners over physical bullion simply because the charts show much more profit potential than if one was to buy the bullion exchange traded funds GLD and SLV.

The market seems to be setting up for some very large moves in 2013 and members of my trading newsletter should do very well. Be sure to join and follow along at www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen