Posts

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2015 Stock Market Forecast And Your Trading Plan

US Stock Market On The Verge Of Exciting Times

The S&P 500 stock market has been under strong rotation since mid-2014. Rotation in the stock market is when the trend changes direction from an uptrend to a downtrend or vice versa. But the really exciting part is that after strong rotations in the market similar to what we are experiencing now, the stock market always makes massive moves to profit from shortly after.

algorithmic trading system

Depending how the price moves during market rotations individual traders, CTAs, hendgefunds and even algorithmic trading systems can generate large profits. But price action must be favorable to meet every ones risk/reward rules.

Unfortunately during the second half of 2014 the stock market rotation moved in a way that did not generate many trades. But no trades are better than losing trades so it’s not the end of the world, and the good news is there will always be more trades.

But what I want to show you here is how the current price action of the stock market we are experiencing is identical to what we saw in 2010 and again in 2011. Also keep in mind that if equities are going to have a another big move it will generate other opportunities in precious metals, energy sector, and commodities. ETF’s are what I use to take advantage of these large moves with my ETF trading newsletter.

Algorithmic Trading System

2015 is going to be a BIG year for traders
and algorithmic trading systems!

These consolidations (pauses) in the stock market have led to substantial rallies in the stock market of 30+% gains over a six-month period and its looks like it will happen again.

My algorithmic trading system has struggled during the strong rotation of recent but so have most CTA’s and other money managers. There is not doubt that it has been hard to profit with these swings in the market because of how they formed.

When this phase of the market completes and a new trend emerges traders and algorithmic trading systems will excel and be highly active again just like they were in the first half of 2014.

Watch the video to learn more…

Visit Chris Vermeulen’s Websites to Learn more:
www.AlgoTrades.net
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com 

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WTI Crude Oil on the Move $112 Next Stop

The energy sector has surged during the last two months which can be seen by looking at the XLE Energy Select Sector Fund. If crude oil continues to climb to the $112 level, XLE will likely continue to rally for another few days or possibly week as energy stocks are considered a leveraged way to play energy price movements.

Another way to look at this info is through the USO United States Oil Fund. This tracks much closer to the price of oil. The only issue is that many ETFs that “try to track” an underlying commodity is in how the funds are built. They own multiple contracts further into the future which does not exactly provide us with the short term news/event driven price movements in the current front month contract as they should.

What does this mumbo jumbo mean? Well, it means funds like USO and the highly respected UNG, and VIX ETFs… (just joking about the highly respected part), fail to track the underlying commodity or index very well when it comes to short term price movements. This means, you can nail the timing of a trade, and the commodity or index will move in your favor, yet your fund loses money, or goes nowhere…

Let’s Focus on the Technicals Now…

WTI crude oil has formed a bullish ascending triangle pattern from March to May of this year. The breakout to the upside is bullish and should be traded that way until the chart says otherwise. This breakout and first pullback must hold, or I will consider it a failed breakout. So if price dips and closes 2 days below the breakout level, it will be a major negative for oil in my opinion.

The range of the ascending triangle provides us with a measured move to the upside which is $112. Typically the first pullback after a breakout can be bought. The first short term target to scalp some gains would be $109, and at that point moving your stop to breakeven is a wise decision. Trading is all about managing capital and risk, if you don’t, then the market will take advantage of your lack in discipline.

Looking further back on the chart, you can see the double bottom formation also known as a “W” formation. Once the high of the “W” formation is broken the trend should be considered neural or up.

Also note that the RSI (relative strength) has been trending higher for some time now. This means money is rotating into this commodity. This is in line with my interview this week with Kerry Lutz and my recent article talking about the next bull market in commodities and the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange).

clfutures

WTI Crude Oil Trading Conclusion:

In short, oil has some extra risk around it. The recent move has been partly fueled by news overseas. So at any time oil could get a lift or take a hit by news that hits the wires. I tent to trade news related events with much less capital than I normally do because of this risk.

Happy Trading!

WANT MORE TRADE IDEAS?
GET THEM HERE: WWW.THEGOLDANDOILGUY.COM

 

Chris Vermeulen
CEO & Founder
AlgoTrades.net
TheGoldAndOilGuy.com










 

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Commodities Are Building Bases and About To Rally – Steel Market

Commodities in general have been under pressure for the last couple years. This can be seen by looking at the GCC Greenhaven Continuous Commodity ETF which holds a basket of resources.

The weekly chart has formed a bullish bottom pattern, and as of last January it looks as though it’s now building a basing pattern. Overall commodities are in the very early stages of a stage 1 basing pattern and it looks as though it will be a few more months before any significant breakout will occur. But there could be some early entry points if you know what to look for…

A few days ago I talked about how commodities tend to perform well near the end of a bull market in the United States stock market. I also pointed out which hot index was going to benefit from this.

Read Commodity Index Report: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-and-oil-fuel-canadian-stock-market-rally

In this article I want to bring your attention to the steel market. Using the SLX Steel ETF you can clearly see the bottoming pattern and basing pattern for this commodity.

Currently steel is underperforming the stock market and is vulnerable to lower prices. But if we see a few things come together in the coming days or weeks, this could be a screaming buy.

My technical take on steel is this:

SLX has formed a bottoming pattern from January – mid March. It has since put in a strong impulse rally to make a higher high, and is now consolidating above key support. The RSI (Relative Strength) remains in a down trend, but if this starts to rise and SLX breaks above its recent highs around the $47.75 level I feel steel will start to rally with $50 being the next major whole number and previous high for steel to find some resistance.

Also price has been riding along the 200 day moving average which is acting as support. If price closes a couple of days below the 200 moving average I would consider this to be a bearish sign.

SLX

Steel Trading Conclusion:

In short, we are looking for the relative strength to start making new highs. Also we want to see a reversal bar on the SLX chart to the upside which we got on Tuesday. Or you can wait for a breakout and close above $47-48 area. Stop would be somewhere around the $45.75 area to start, then raise it as price rallies using intraday pivot lows on the 30 minute chart.

GET THESE REPORTS DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX FREE: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen
Disclaimer: I do not own shares of TAN as this point, but may buy some in the near future.










 

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Quantitative Trading XLU – Utility Stocks Will Continue to Outperform

See this weeks XLU trade setup and how I use fibonacci extensions for my price targets in the video below.

Also, I posted an exclusive article with my updated quantitative trading gold forecast.

START QUANTITATIVE TRADING WITH ME TODAY!
Click Here

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ETF Trading Newsletter: Nasdaq Shorting Opportunity

It looks as though the Nasdaq is about ready for another leg lower. Watch these key resistance levels for a short trade this week.

Get These Trade Alerts Every Week with my ETF Trading Newsletter

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How to Trade Gold – Gold ETF Trading Newsletter

I did a short video a while back on momentum trading gold and wanted to share it and post it in the members area of the website for you to view. It’s short and basic, but useful.

Current snap shot of gold trend…

Gold - ETF Trading Newsletter

 

Learn More & Trade With My Alerts with my ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen

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ETF Trading Newsletter: Live Trade of the Month – It’s a bit Corny

ETF Trading Newsletter: In early February I started watching the CORN ETF very closely for a possible new bull market starting and a long entry point. Many of the other commodities had already posted strong rallies while corn sat on the side lines.

The Corn ETF is designed to follow the price of the continuous corn futures contracts. This commodity looked as though it was forming a base (launch pad) for the new rally and possible major bull market to start.

This post walks you through each step of the way from entering the Corn ETF trade, adding to a winning position, tightening our stops, locking in partial profits at our first price target etc.. In fact myself and subscribers are still long the Corn ETF as of today with my ETF trading newsletter.

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ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #1

We have been watching the commodities index rally for a few weeks now with natural gas, coffee, sugar, gold, silver and several others jump in price. We have been watching the GCC ETF which is a basket of several commodities to get a feel for the commodities market as a whole.

While most of the commodities have posted some solid gains, CORN has yet to pop in price. Corn looks to be forming a stage 1 basing pattern and the volume/money flowing into this fund suggest new money is moving into corn because it looks as though it will be the last to pop and rally in price.

This is similar to how we entered the silver trade a few weeks back. Everything else in the precious metals sector popped and silver lagged giving us a high probability setup.

Both the short and long term the charts of corn look bullish. As usual I will lock in some gains if we get a pop in the commodity, then let the balance ride with a break even stop. If corn is entering a new bull market phase (Stage 2) I want to hold some long term. There is potential for a 19%-30% rise in value.

Corn Trade Information:

Buy CORN etf, Stop $29.90, Downside Risk 6%, Portfolio Size 6%

ETF Trading Newsletter - Corn

 

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ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #2

New CORN Trade Order Pending

During the past couple weeks we have seen the CORN ETF trade sideways with fading volume. Recently we have seen a couple strong buying days in CORN which I call GET-READY spikes. These typically indicate some big money (insiders) are accumulating a position ahead of good news.

We are currently long CORN already and in the money, which is why I like this second setup even more. Because we already have a profit buffer, making the risk here is lower than normal. If you have ready some of the market wizard books you will also pickup on how the most successful traders pyramid up (average up) in winning trades.

My Plan Of Attack: I only want to buy on strength here focusing on entering the trade once is breaks a previous pivot high which in this case is: $34.06

Trade Setup:

Place a Buy-Stop order at $34.06, GTC (Good Till Canceled), 8% of portfolio position size

This type of order will enter you into the trade if price rallies and breaks that price point so you do not need to sit around and watch the charts. If you do not know this type of order just Google it only or call your broker. It is a very simple and basic order type.

 

 

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ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #3

CORN Position Added

This afternoon our CORN trade order was executed. Yesterday we set a Buy-Stop order so we get entered the commodity if price starts to breakout to the upside. These types of order are just like a stop order in respect that you just enter it and the market and broker do all the work after that.

This is why trading with a plan/strategy is much easier and less stressful. If you have a plan, do the leg work and execute it, things do not seem difficult or stressful. Problem is most traders don’t have a plan and even if they do, most times they don’t follow it. The result is a confused, stressed out trader/investor second guessing their every move.

I have updated the portfolio in the member’s area so you can review positions and protective stops.

 

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ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #4

CORN Position Adjustment – Locking in Gains

CORN has been moving in our favor for about a month now. Today’s pop in price has reached my short term measured move using fibonacci extensions and I feel it is time to lock in some gains and move our protective stop to breakeven.

We entered this position twice and your average price per share should be around $32.96.

I am moving my stop to breakeven and selling half of my position today. Current price is $35.10, as we are up 6.5%.

See chart below for a visual:

ETF Trade Newsletter

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Why You Need My ETF Trading Newsletter as a Self-Directed Trader

You know it and I know it, trading is extremely difficult, time consuming and can be expensive if not done properly. What I have shown you above is verbatim of what subscribers to my ETF Trading Newsletter received thus far for the corn trade.

I do updated and show the charts live each day in my daily video forecast which members have access to but that is just to keep everyone up to speed on the trade to help manage their emotions and prepare for what it to happen before it happens.

Consider joining my group of happy traders today at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Corn ETF Trading Newsletter

Consider joining my group of happy traders today at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

 

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ETF Trading Newsletter: Ross Clark & Vermeulen Talk Trading

ETF Trading Newsletter

Ross Clark of CIBC & Technical Analyst of Institutional Advisors Talks Technical Analysis with Chris Vermeulen

My Personal Trading Strategies BookRoss Clark has specialized in technical analysis of the markets since the 1970’s. As a charter member of CompuTrac and then user of TradeStation he has developed trading programs and proprietary indicators. It is his belief that market timing and shifts in asset allocation can add value to investment portfolios.

Ross and Chris talk about technical trading mastery and Vermeulen’s New Book that covers exciting topics like cycle analysis and automated trading systems in a live radio broadcast last week which is now available online.

LISTEN HERE: http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2014/03/this-week-in-money-129/

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Newsletter

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Why Gold Is Falling & A Gold Forecast You May Not Like

The bitter truth about what may happen to gold is not all that exciting and likely don’t want to know, but you need to understand what is unfolding as we speak…

Long story short, the prices of bonds look as though they are about to rally once again. Mounting fears of a stock market correction has money flowing into bonds which in turn will drive interest yields lower yet gain. But the BIG PICTURE of what he FED said the other week about how they plan to raise rates in 2015 and cut QE down to $55 billion per month hurts the long term outlook for gold.

This news may not sound that important, it actually is and undermines the price of miners, silver and gold in a big way.

Find out why gold is falling and the threat that could trigger a much larger meltdown in the long run with my gold forecast video.

Technical Trading Mastery Book

Chris Vermeulen
ETF Trading Newsletter