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SP500 & Dow Intraday Charts & Futures Prices at Their Best

March 26, 2010
The market gapped higher this morning after yesterdays heavy selling. At this time the market (metals and indexes) are trading at resistance on light volume. This tells me people are a little spooked from yesterday and just do not want to buy at these lofty prices.

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Stock Market Training Education

I am trying to provide you with more insight and trading tips/education because I know many of you enjoy it. So here is something some of you may find interesting…

Over the years I have found several things which happen repeatedly in the market. I always found it interesting that in an uptrend the market/commodity or stock tends to gap lower at the open the next day. And during a down trend the market tends to gap higher at the open.

Why is this? I don’t know for sure… but my thoughts are that the smart money (big guys & professional traders) manipulate the market using futures to artificially lower prices so they can buy more the at lower prices before everyone else jumps in. It’s similar but in the reverse during a bear market. Prices gap up so they can short more shares at a higher price before everyone starts selling again pushing prices lower.

I could be way off here as this is my personal opinion but I see it happen all the time… so whether I am right or wrong in my theory the fact is this price action happens.

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Take a look at the SP500 & Dow Jones Futures Charts:

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Market Gap Trading Conclusion:

In short, the market gapped up today (not good)…
I see the dollar is now trading at a short term support level and metals are trading at resistance. So maybe something will come out of this for a short play…

I hope this short reports was of use for getting a feel of how the market moves and what I am looking for in low risk setups.

Have a great weekend everyone. I don’t see anything tradable other than this intraday low risk setup which just broke down as I write this sentence,  fun stuff…

Be sure to get notified about my new day and swing trading service I am launching April 6th by entering your email address in the form below:

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Disclaimer: I am currently short SP500

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Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas Mid-Week Trading Charts

March 11th 2010
So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January high.

One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week considerably – particularly on the SP500 and OEX. It’s difficult to say if this volume is a good sign or not.

A lot of stocks and sectors are trading near their January high and this gives traders a reason to unload shares. On the flip side, the several sectors and indexes have broken their January high and this triggers a surge in volume as breakout traders try to take advantage of the new high and momentum. So you can see how the surge of volume is not a useful indicator right now.

Here are some charts of what I think we could see in the coming weeks.

US Dollar Index – Daily Trading Chart
I follow the US dollar index very closely simply because it affects the prices of stocks and commodities. I used a line chart below in order to take out the daily candle stick noise which made it very difficult for our eyes to pick up this pattern.

The chart shows a possible head & shoulders pattern and if that is the case then we should see the dollar start to slide lower. In turn, this would boost stocks and commodities. This is the fuel that I think could really move the market sharply higher in the coming weeks.

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Trading Chart
The price of gold looks to be setup for a nice bounce off support and the timing could just work out if the US Dollar starts to drop over the next few days. There could be a low risk setup just around the corner.

SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart
Silver has held up well but today’s reversal candle to the downside scares me a little. The odds are that silver will carry this strong momentum selling down for another 1-2 days. Again, with any luck, it will test support and the US Dollar will start to slide lower.

Crude Oil – Daily Trading Chart
Oil has had a great run the past month but as you can see it’s currently trading at the top of a large trading range. I would like to see a sideways move before it takes another run at the $84 level, but the 7 day bull flag that formed two weeks ago may have been enough to maintain the upward momentum. Again, if the Dollar drops we will see oil rally.

Natural Gas – Daily Trading Chart
This chart is actually very attractive looking. Even if you do not understand how to read charts I think it’s safe to say this one is a no brainer.

I will be closely watching for a potential low risk setup in the coming days.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, stocks and indexes are trading at resistance levels with many of them making new highs and that is great to see.

A lot of things are trading in limbo waiting to see what the US Dollar is going to do. Several months ago I posted some charts showing that 81 would be a key resistance level for the dollar. If it broke above that then 84 would be the next key level to watch. So we just have to wait and see… the hardest part of trading is the waiting.

Gold, silver, oil and natural gas all look like they could continue higher in the next few days if things unfold that quickly. But the market always finds a way to drag out moves so we could still be a 2-3 weeks away.

I hope this report helps give you an idea of where things are at in the market.

If you would like to receive my Free Trading Reports and Analysis be sure to visit my website:
















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Chris Vermeulen
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

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Gold & SP500’s One Candle Rebound To Riches

March 3th
It’s been a great year for trading!
So far February, last week and this week have being absolutely amazing for both swing traders and intraday traders.

On February 5th we had extreme panic selling with nearly 35 sell orders for every 1 buy order on the NYSE. That extreme panic and dumping of shares was the day we jumped into the market and we nailed the bottom.

As my trading buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners would say “Buy When They Cry!” and that is exactly what subscribers did. Since then our gold, silver and the index funds have been moving up nicely.

I would like to note that there were several more technical reasons why we jumped into the market that day but I won’t get into the nitty-gritty cause this mid-week update would be a trading book…

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Explanation of What happened Last Week & This Week
Ok this may get a little confusing but try to stick with me here…

If you recall last Wednesday’s mid-week report which was called “Gold, Silver & Stock Indices on the Verge of Rolling Over”, I talked about how I was bearish on the overall market. This report has a bunch of detailed charts explaining what was most likely to happen next and some trading.

Well, the market played out just as we had expected. The market dropped 1.35% in over night trading and the following trading session providing intraday traders using ETF’s, Futures or CFD’s a net profit between 1.35% to over 100% return within 17 hours of entering a trade depending on which trading vehicle you used. Check out how this trade was executed by reading my report titled “How To Use Multiple Time Frames For Setups” which I send out the next day. Understanding how to trade using different time frames is a must for all traders and this report shows you how.

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Now here is the part that has thrown a lot of traders off
Just to recap, I posted an extremely bearish report saying the sky is falling on Wednesday. Thursday morning the market moved down as expected, and then late Thursday afternoon I sent out a trade alerts to buy a bunch of precious metal and stock etfs.

I understand why emails flooded my inbox that afternoon…. Everyone wanted to know how I can say the market is falling then turn around and buy the very next day.

It’s actually a really simple answer. “I don’t fall in love with my positions” and “I re-evaluate the market after each new candlestick on the chart”.

Trading is not an easy task, that we all know. The market tests and bends my brain to the limit on a regular basis and if one cannot control their emotions and stick with a set of trading rules, then you will eventually lose all your money.

I have placed thousands of trades in my lifetime and pulling the trigger to get in and out of a position does not phase me anymore. But the problem is most people don’t want to exit a losing trade because then they are proven wrong and most people hate being wrong. If that’s what you are feeling, then you need fix it or get out of trading.

My general rule is “when in doubt, get out”. I would rather watch a trade move without me knowing I had it right, than be stuck in a losing trade, saying to myself, “Why the hell did I get into this trade?”

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Re-Evaluating the Market or Your Investment
After each new candle is formed on a chart it is crucial to re-evaluate the charts. In other words if your main focus is to trade the daily chart then you better re-evaluate the strength of the chart each day and also check the 1 hour intraday chart for possible bullish or bearish patterns.

On the other hand, if you are an intraday trader focusing on trading the 1 hour chart, then you better be evaluating things every hour, and also check the 5 or 10 minute charts for patterns to keep an eye on price and volume action.

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Below are daily charts of some ETF’s I trade showing how we have been trading the market. You can see February 25th the market reversed to the upside and that is when we went long again as prices formed an outside reversal candle and these funds have been moving higher ever since.

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Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:

In short, it’s been a great start to the year with the market performing within its regular trading patterns between fear and greed.

I believe 2010 is going to be very tough for individuals who do not fully understand the market and how to manage risk. I figure the market is about to top in the next week or so then start to head lower. 2010 will most likely trade in a large sideways range for 8-10 months and maybe even longer. Being able to spot market reversals and trade them actively is were the money is this year. No grand slams, just a bunch of single base hits.

I would like to see the market rally and makes new highs but I am ready for what ever the market dishes out in the coming months.

I hope this report helped you to understand that trading is an active sport and being able to change directions one day to another is just part of the game.


If you are interested in my Trading Alert Service for ETFs check out TheGoldAndOilGuy
at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

On another note, if you would like to trade all the setups I do in real-time I will be launching a service where I provide all my personal trades and analysis for your to follow along in real-time. Members will receive all my intraday and swing trade alerts for indexes and commodities Futures allowing you to trade which ever vehicle you want whether it’s an ETF, Leveraged ETF, Futures Contract or CFD. This way your timing is accurate and you can trade which ever investment you are comfortable trading with.

There will be a 24/7 chatroom allowing us to trade around the clock when setups arise. Also, members can swap ideas, ask me questions, make new trading buddies etc… There is even a squawk box feature! I can talk live with audio to everyone in the chatroom to the site can hear me for important news or trades alerts.

All trade alerts are instantly posted in the members area, chat-room and sent via email making it one of the most powerful trading services I have seen available online.

If you are interested please fill out the form to be notified for this service which will start the last week of March or the first week of April. It will have limited availability to keep it personal:

Chris Vermeulen

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Spot 60 Minute Trends for Gold, Oil, Nat Gas, and Indexes

Welcome back everyone! It’s time to buckle up and get ready for another exciting year of trading.

When the market is moving on light volume I tend to focus on very short term plays to minimize my exposure to volatility. The past couple of weeks have been great for day traders and futures trades as we took advantage of the short term seasonal holiday rally in the broad market and also by shorting gold when bounces reached resistance levels.

This year I will be providing many more trades as I focus more on 60 minute trading charts to scalp the market with low risk quick reward setups. Also I will start providing futures trading analysis and signals for those who want to be more active and generate more income on a monthly basis.

DIA – Dow Jones Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart
The Dow has been trading in this range for a couple weeks providing some excellent short plays. Although I tell members not to short in a bull market, there are times when shorting in a bull market looks and feels right. The past month has been the perfect mix for shorting using the 60 minute charts.

Dow Jones Trend

Dow Jones Trend

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Gold is in a strong bull market but the short term charts have provided over 13 short trades in the past 2 weeks for futures traders playing the bounces to resistance levels. The triangle on the 60 minute chart with declining volume is a continuation pattern of the short term trend which is down.

Because gold is trading near a support level on the daily chart, I am waiting patiently for a perfect setup to go short, or long depending on what happens in the coming hours. I predict lower prices with $102 area for the next support level.

Gold ETF

Gold ETF

UNG – Natural Gas Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Natural gas is trading at resistance on the daily and weekly charts. This 60 minute chart allows us to take a closer look at the intraday momentum which clearly shows there are more sellers than buyers at this level. I see lower prices in the coming hours/days.

UNG not a good fund for holding positions more than 2 weeks, it does provide excellent trading opportunities for day traders and 60 minute chart setups.

Natural Gas Tends

Natural Gas Tends

USO – Crude Oil Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Crude oil had a perfect bounce off of a support level on the weekly and daily charts back on the 14th. Oil is now trading at a short term resistance level and I feel it will head lower in the coming days. We still need more price action before taking a position. Let’s watch and wait.

Oil Trend Trading

Oil Trend Trading

Trends of Gold, Dow, Oil and Natural Gas Conclusion:
The broad market and commodities listed above seem to be trading at resistance levels with signs of rolling over. As a technical trader the charts do all the talking and they are pointing to lower prices in the near term which falls in line with my gut feeling that a sharp pullback across the board is lurking in January. Once the big money start getting pushed around again we will know who is in control, buyers or sellers.

Let’s continue to focus on these short term charts to take advantage of any low risk setups which come our way.

Get these Free Weekly Trend Trading Charts Emailed to you:

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndoilGuy.com

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Year End Commodity & ETF Trend Trading Signals

Well, here we are with only hours left before the year is over. Virtually every investment is up other than the US dollar.

Not much has changed since my last gold market trends report. But I have provided some interesting charts that show us what is possible in the coming weeks for the dollar, gold and natural gas.

US Dollar Trend Analysis – Resistance Levels
The dollar has shown some strength in the past month. It was a no brainer trade for 2009. You were either long gold or short the dollar. The chart below shows the key resistance levels for the $USD. I have a feeling we are going to see the dollar test the 80 -81 levels before rolling over and heading south again.

If this happens then gold and silver will continue to pull back. I am actually hoping the dollar moves higher and gold drops back to test the $1000-1060 level. This would clear the way for gold and the dollar to continue with their longer term trends with increased momentum (dollar collapses, gold goes parabolic).
Dollar Trend

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
The daily gold swing trading chart is really starting to look attractive for a buy signal. Depending on what the US dollar does in the coming days will set the tone for gold.

We could see gold start to rally starting tomorrow or it will become volatile and start to sell off sharply in the coming days. Right now we have very light volume so any moves/breakouts cannot be taken seriously or with a large position.

If the dollar starts to rally we could see the GLD ETF drop to the $97.50 – $103 level.
Gold Trend Trading

Spot Gold Trend Analysis – 18 Day, 1hr Bar Chart
Starting in 2010 I will be providing futures trading analysis and signals so I thought I would provide a chart of the spot gold trend I have been day trading over the holidays.

This may seem like I am going against my #1 trading Rule – Never Trade Against the Trend, but the trend changes depending on time frame and trading style you are using. In short, gold reversed very strong 18 days ago just as we anticipated it would. The selling momentum was so strong it made for excellent gold futures day trading setups which I took advantage of over the past 10 trading days.

The chart below is of the 100 ounce gold GC Feb 10 futures contract which I traded. The chart is shrunk down and does not show my setups, nor does the chart look very sexy, but it clearly shows the direction of the trend and the BIG SELLING VOLUME.

The table shows my recent trades and if you take a close look all of the trades I did were Short Trades. Because the momentum and trend is down on this time frame I only traded perfect short setups (profiting from gold as it loses value).
Gold Futures Trading

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
UNG appears to be trading at resistance and starting to look like its rolling over. It did move above last weeks high which voids the reversal candle we had Tuesday and Thursday, or else it would have been a short setup for us. I don’t chase a trade, that’s my #2 rule, so I am waiting for a possible bounce here, test of resistance then another reversal back down.
Natural Gas Trends

Commodity & ETF Year End Trends:
In short, we continue the waiting game for more setups in the coming weeks as volatility and volume creep back into the market. The dollar and gold are currently trading at pivot points and no one knows which way to play them.

Trading futures run virtually 24 hours a day and have provided some excellent trading opportunities that I will be providing in the coming weeks for traders.

Natural Gas is trading at pivot point and looking ready for another move down.

Crude oil and the board market I feel will top out in the next 2-5 days but nothing worth putting any money on at this time.

I would like to thank everyone for their kind words and support over the past 12 months. I wish you all a happy and safe New Years!

Get My Free Trading Charts:

Chris Vermeulen
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com – Gold Trend Analysis & Signals