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The Next Three Bull Markets Are Starting

As we all know, there is always a bull market somewhere…

In this video report I will share with you the next three big investments for 2014 which are unfolding as we you read this. And Precious metals (gold, silver & miners) are only one of the bull markets…

You have not heard anything about these sectors on CNBC, radio, and no one is writing about them. Because of this, it has me really excited because the more people that are caught off guard with a move the bigger upside potential there is.

All you have to do is watch the video to find out…

Watch Video Now:

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

SP500 Pierces, Bonds Rally, Dollars Fall Out the Window

Sept 23, 2010
It’s been a wild ride the past few days. Now, thanks to comments from Obama and FOMC, it seems like everyone is waiting to see what the market will do from this pivotal point onward.

Since the market topped in April and has since been trading sideways in this rather large range, everyone has small positions at work but waiting for a decisive move before fully committing to one side. There could be a few opportunities in the coming days using bonds, the dollar and the SP500 if all goes well which I explain below.

Lets take a look at the charts…

SP500 – SPY ETF, Daily Chart

There has been a lot of talk about a sharp rally if the SP500 could break the 1130 level or the neckline everyone is talking about. Well this week Obama was on TV and the market rallied into that, then again after. I don’t really thing investors or traders were buying things up as he said the same boring stuff he always says without anything new. I feel there could have been another force at work, which we can discus another time .

Anyways, the market pierced those resistance levels and I’m sure a ton of traders have switch their view on the market from bearish to bullish. While I prefer to trade with the trend I can’t help but feel this market is still range bound, which is why I am still bearish at these shakeout levels. The SP500 did break resistance BUT the following candle did not close above the breakout candles high to confirm the move.

That said, the market is now trading back down at support and the next couple of days I’m sure will shed some like on the direction.

20 Year Bonds – TLT Fund, Daily Chart

We have seen the bond price pullback in a bull flag formation. It touched support before bouncing to break short term resistance as it looks to have started another rally. The chart below overlays both the candlesticks of the bond price and the SP500 which is the white line. You will notice they have an inverse relationship. If bond prices continue to rally then lower SP500 could start to rollover.

US Dollar – UUP Fund, Daily Chart

The dollar has fallen sharply the past 10 trading session and it looks to be oversold for a couple reasons. The past couple days the price has dropped straight down and gapped lower. This recent drop has reached a gap window which will act as support and could provide a tradable bounce in the coming days depending how things unfold.

Mid-Week Market Analysis Conclusion:

In short, the SP500 is flirting with resistance and has yet to confirm the breakout. Bond prices look to be headed higher which will makes me think equities could start to sell off any day now… It’s also important to note that the big banks GS and JPM shares have been under pressure and they tend to lead the broad market. Another point to add is the fact the oil has not rallied even though the dollar dropped like a rock? What happens if the dollar bounces? Could oil finally start its next leg down?

Gold and silver continue their steady grind up. The price action reminds me of the 2009 Nov –Dec move. Once that train de-rails its going to have a sharp correction…

You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 3-5 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis as it allows me toe get more into across to you quicker and is more educational, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward.

Let the volatility and volume return!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

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How to Trade Gold and other Commodity ETF’s

Jan 18th, 2010

Whether you are trading stocks, ETFs or futures, technical analysis is the preferred choice for short term traders. Technical analysis in short is the study of price and volume movements on charts. It can be used for studying charts in any time frame whether you are a 1 minute chartist or a long term investor using monthly charts.

Using technical analysis in my opinion really opens the door for a trader to lower his/her overall risk when investing money. I always like to know if the investments I am watching are trading near a critical price level (support or resistance). During these times you can take positions that have very clear entry and exit points for trading. Also it puts the odds in your favor when a position is entered in the same direction of the underlying trend.

Price action is how we make money in the market, so I strictly follow price and volume when trading as they are the least lagging indicator on what the market it doing.

I have put together a few charts using commodity ETFs to show you what I am seeing in the market and what we should expect to see in the coming days.

GLD ETF Trader – Daily Trend Chart

The gold trading chart below shows two different types of trends. The initial timeframe of the chart illustrates what I call a Normal Trend. This is a series of higher highs and lows.

This type of trend allows an investment to continue profitably for a very long period of time. For example a daily chart like the one below can continue to trend like this for 6-8 months. The reason for this is because price appreciation is increasing at a rate which investors are comfortable with. Also, the pullbacks cleanse the investment vehicle of weak traders every few weeks allowing fresh money to enter at higher price.

Now if you look at the later timeframe of this rally we observe a rally phase I call an Extended Rally. An extended rally is when price appreciates without any pullbacks.

You can make a fortune with this trend very quickly, but you must realize that reversals are fast and sharp. And that, we observe, is how GLD performed in December. While some call December’s price drop a pullback, I call it a technical breakdown. The sharp price reversal and heavy volume associated with this type of move generally provides excellent short term momentum trades. A lot of damage is done to the investment on a heavy volume breakdown taking weeks for a recovering to occur.

Normal trend rally, extended rally, predictably fast and sharp technical breakdown followed by weeks of recovery.
Trade GLD ETF

DIA Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Trend Trading

The DIA exchange traded fund shows a very similar chart as gold above. First we have a nice Normal Trend that then evolved into an Extended Trend. The trend for the DIA index fund is not nearly as steep at the gold chart, so it could trend a little longer. But once the price breaks down, everyone is going to be selling out to lock in gains and cut losses before new positions are entered.

I have several tools and stats I use for helping me in timing turning points. Some are great short term indicators only predicting 1-2 days out like following small cap stocks, or gold stocks in relation to the broad index, and others are long term things like cycles, volume analysis, market internals and the volatility index.

My point here is to keep everyone alert and ready to take profits if we see things start to roll over. Friday there was BIG selling volume across the board – so don’t blink now.
Trading DIA ETF

Silver & Gold ETF Trading – Daily Charts

Below is the chart of the silver ETF SLV and I overlaid the GLD gold fund in green so you can see how they move in sync. The blue boxes on the chart show the pattern that I think is forming and what to expect in the coming days.

From looking at gold in both other currencies and with respect to gold stocks which have been underperforming, I feel we are going to see lower prices still. At the moment I am neutral on silver and gold for the short term time frame (daily & 60 minute charts).
Exchange Traded Fund for Silver

USO Crude Oil Fund – Daily Trend Chart

Oil has slid lower the past 5 sessions and is now nearing a support level. This has me looking for an oversold bounce with the potential to rally much higher. I am keeping an eye on this for any possible low risk setup.
USO Oil fund Trader

UNG Natural Gas Fund – Daily Trading Chart

While UNG is not a great intermediate and long term fund to invest in, I do find it trades very nicely for intraday and short swing trades. I am neutral on natural gas for the time being. It could go either way from here and I’m not willing to take on a 50/50 probability trade. Let’s wait for something exciting to form.
Natural Gas UNG Trader

Commodity Trading Conclusion:
In short, gold and silver have been underperforming the market recently which is not what we want to see. They have led the market higher all year but are now taking a breather.

The way I see gold, silver, oil and natural gas is that they are trading below their recent highs and still have more room to fall before landing on a solid support level.

The stock market is now over extended and looks ready for a sharp correction. If this happens we will see commodities drop and test lower prices also.

There is not much we can do right now other than protect our current long positions by tightening our stops. Depending on the strength of the breakdown, there could be a great opportunity for short term traders (60 minute chart traders) to make some quick money. I expect a sell off which will last 3-5 days at the least.

If you would like to receive my Free Technical Trading Newsletter for ETFS  and Futures please visit my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen