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Stock Market Trend – Eye Opening Information

My Stock market trend analysis is likely different from what you think is about to unfold. Keep an open mind as this is just showing you both sides of the coin from a technical stand point. Remember, the market likes to trend in the direction which causes the most investor pain.

Since the stock market bottom in 2009 equities has been rising which is great, but this train could be setting up to do the unthinkable. What do I mean? Well, let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes.

The Bear Market Trend & Investor Negative Credit

The S&P500 has been forming a large broadening formation over the last 13 years. The recent run to new highs and record amounts of money being borrowed to buy stocks on margin has me skeptical about prices continuing higher.

Take a look at the chart below which I found on the ZeroHedge website last week. This chart shows the SP500 index relative to positive and negative investor credit balances. As you can see we are starting to reach some extreme leverage again on the stock market. I do feel we are close to a strong correction or possible bear market, but we must remember that a correction may be all we get. It does not take much for this type of borrowed money to be washed clean and removed. A simple 2-6 week correction will do this and then stocks will be free to continue higher.

credit

 

Monthly Bearish Trend Outlook

Below you can see the simple logical move that should occur next for stocks based on the average bull market lasts four years (it has been four years) and the fact the negative credit is so high again.

Also, poor earnings continue to be released for many individual names across all sectors of the market. While corporate profits may be holding up or growing in some of the big name stocks, revenues are not. This means the big guys are simply laying off workers and cutting costs still.

Overall the stock market is entering its strongest period of the year. So things could get choppy here with strong up and down days until Jan. After that stocks could start to top out and eventually confirm a down trend. Keep in mind, major market tops are a process. They take 6-12 months to form so do not think this is a simple short trade. The market will be choppy until a confirmed down trend is in place.

MajorBear

 

Monthly BULLISH Trend Outlook

This scenario is the least likely one floating around market participant’s minds. It just does not seem possible with the global issues trying to be resolved. With the Federal Reserve continuing to print tens of billions of dollars each month inflating the stocks market this bullish scenario has some legs to stand on and makes for the perfect “Wall of Worry” for stocks to climb.

The US dollar is likely to continue falling in the long run, but I do not think it will collapse. Instead, it will likely grind lower and trade almost in a sideways pattern for years to come.

FoodForThought

 

Major Stock Market Trend Conclusion:

In summary, I remain bullish with the trend, but once price and the technical indicators confirm a down trend I will happily jump ships and take advantage of lower prices.

Remember, this is big picture stuff using Monthly and quarterly charts. So these plays will take some time to unfold and within these larger moves are many shorter term opportunities that we will be trading regardless of which direction the market is trending. As active traders and investors we will profit either way.

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Chris Vermeulen








 

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The Great American Wall Of Worry – US Stock Market

Traders and investors all around the world is having trouble climbing over the wall of worry/fear with the US stock market, and rightly so. There is a lot of things taking place and unfolding that carry a high level of uncertainty. Let’s face it, who wants to invest money into the market when it’s hard to come by (high unemployment, banks are still extremely tight with their money, companies are nowhere near wanting to hiring new staff).

The hard pill to swallow is the fact that the stock market loves to rise when uncertainty is high. It’s almost doing it just to drive investor’s nuts who sold out near market bottom or recent correction. You must overcome the urge to short the market when the economy looks so bearish in the years ahead, and continue to trade with the trend.

Short Term Investing – Weekly Volatility Index Chart

Below you can see the fear index. The chart is self-explanatory showing where it should move next. But if you are not familiar with the VIX then here is definition by investopedia:

“The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors’ expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets.”

VixBottom

 

Weekly Investing Chart of the SP500 Index

After reviewing the VIX chart above which points to stocks nearing a level of selling pressure, then review the chart below we come to a conclusion that a minor pullback of 2-5% is likely to take place in the next week ortwo.

The divergence in the Relative Strength Index is a bearish sign for the broad market. While I feel a pullback is do and needed for the market to regroup, it is important to review the seasonality chart and know that we are entering one the strongest times of the year for stocks.

SP500Divergence

 

SP500 Seasonality Chart

Again, using the data from the previous two charts along with this graph clearly shows that a pullback in the stocks is likely going to be bought back up by the brave investors willing to override their fear and go with the trend. For more interesting charts check out my stock chartlists: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

 SP-Seasonality

 

The Wall Of Worry Conclusion:

In short, expect the stock market to correct in the next week or two. But once we get a correction of two percent or more, be prepared for buyers to step back in and buy things up into year end.

This WALL OF WORRY is about to GET HIGHER!

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Chris Vermeulen

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Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices

Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception.

The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.

Whenever the broad market experiences a price correction, one of the most important factors I analyze is how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength to the broad market.

So, where does this leave us going forward?

When stocks that have been leading the market higher and only pausing during market corrections in the S&P500, Dow, and NASDAQ, it’s a positive sign. This tells us investors and big money continues to flow into the risk on assets (stocks).

Conversely, when these leading stocks/sectors begin succumbing to the selling pressure of the broad market, it quickly grabs my attention and tells us it’s time to be aware that a major top may be forming.

It looks as though the broad market rally is just barely hanging on. If the leading stocks and sectors begin breaking below their 50-day moving averages, my proprietary SP500 Market Timing & Trading System will shift to sell mode and things could get ugly for those who do not know how to trade a bear market.

Weekly Relative Strength Showing Negative Divergence

This chart has two important things I would like to point out. First is the fact that the RSI has being overbought twice in the past three years with the most recent one taking place a few months ago. The last time this took place the SP500 had a very strong correction.

The second insight the RSI is providing us with is the diverging price and relative strength as shown with the purple lines on the chart below. This is telling us that the power/momentum behind the market is slowing.

div1

 

Daily Bullish Percent Index – Shows Negative Divergence

I always prefer to watch and analyze the NYSE as it’s the big board where all the HUGE money is flowing from traders and investors. The chart below clearly shows that less stocks are moving higher as seen with the purple bullish percent index line. With less stocks making new highs, yet the stock market continues to climb this is a warning sign that this bull market is slowly running out of steam.

 

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Technology & Financial Sector Are Rising But For How Long?

Two very powerful sectors are holding up well but once they start to breakdown from these chart patterns things could get ugly real quick. Our 3x ETF trading newsletter becomes very active in bear markets as the upside potential is much larger.

The XLK technology sector looks to be forming a bearish rising wedge. If/once it starts to slide it will have a strong impact on the broad market.

div3

Financial Sector XLF

The recent price action of scattered trading ranges looks to be similar to the top we saw in 2011. If this is the case then we have bearish head & shoulders pattern with a rising neckline forming. Once price breaks through the neck line we should expect sharp drop in price.

This sector is heavily weighted in the SP500 so if it start to drop, expect the SP500 to fall with it.

dvi4

 

Major Market Top Lurking…

The chart below pointing out the next bear market likely to take place is a scary looking chart to most individuals. But if you know what you are doing, they can provide more profits in a shorter period of time than a four year bull market.

If this market is starting to stall out and is in the process of forming a top. Keep in mind that market tops are a process. They take typically 3-6 months to form before a true breakdown occurs and the bear market starts. And until then, price will be choppy and difficult to trade.

majorcycle

 

Cautious Trading Conclusion:

In short, this report shows you some major divergences in the financial market. Remember, you do not really trade off divergences, as they are not good at timing. They are simply a warning sign telling us that something large is brewing and that risk is higher than normal.

There are few ETFs I like on various sectors and commodities that show some oversized upside potential in the coming weeks/months. Depending on what takes place in Washington this week will move the market and likely trigger some sharp moves. Until then, sitting tight is the safe play.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Technical Analyst Video Analysis – Metals, Oil, Bonds, SP500

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Chris Vermeulen

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Long or Short Stocks is the Question: I’ve Got the Answer!

Stocks managed their third session higher as of Thursday June 27th and its too late to jump onto that move. Major indexes and leading stocks have rebounded into resistance along with a few key moving averages. The next 1-3 days favor a pause or pullback at the least simply because of the selling momentum and multiple resistance levels being tested. It is only natural for traders and investors to pull some money off the table or short at these levels.

Stepping back seven days and looking at the overall stock market we have seen a substantial drop in prices across the board. A Ton of stocks have formed their first impulse thrust to the downside which is typically what happens when a stock market is in a topping process (Stage 3 Distribution). The type of damage we had cannot be fixed overnight. This will be a process if it is to resolve to the upside and price action will remain wild (volatile).

The odds from a technical analysis stand point using Price, Momentum, Cycles, Volume and Moving Averages point to lower prices still to come. Actually they point to another 5% drop from the current level.

Major Points to Be Aware Of:

1. 20 Simple Moving Average is crossing below the 50SMA. Last time this took place it triggered a 5% drop in the SP500.

2. Price has bounced for three consecutive days. This typically puts the odds in favor for a pullback.

3. Price bounced and hit it’s head on the 20 and 50 moving averages on Thursday (RESISTANCE).

4. Market Time Cycles are in a decline phase meaning there will be a negative bias and seller will be actively pulling price lower on bounces.

5. Major Long Term Chart looks favorable for a bear market to start which may last 12 months. If so this is just the beginning of some scary yet highly profitable potential trades in the coming year. Stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise…

 

Daily SP500 Trend & Analysis Chart:

spydaily

 

Long Term SP500 Trend Chart:

spymonthly

 

BEARISH SP500 Price & Volume – 60 Minute Intraday Chart:

spyintraday

 

Looking at these charts from a long term, intermediate and short term basis the odds are favoring lower prices. Being short stocks or buying inverse ETF’s is the current play for the market. But analysis and trends are subject to change depending on price and volume action each week. Do not get your heart set on the BIG picture outlook of a yearlong selloff. That could prove to be dangerous. We take this market one bar or candlestick at a time and trade based on current short term analysis.

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Chris Vermeulen