March 08 2017 Market Forecast

Natural Gas Ready for Big Move

US Drives Global Growth

The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy.  Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities.  The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years.  US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.

 

This is the reason I believe the US, as well as certain foreign partners, will see nearly immediate and direct advancement of economic objectives.  The amount of capital that could be unleashed over the next 2 years could be well in excess of $2 Trillion as related to business investment, consumer-driven sales and expanded manufacturing capacity will likely drive the US economy into a new leadership role focused on renewed opportunity and activity.

 

US Manufacturing has recently been in a state of decline since late 2011.  I attribute this to uncertainty related to US policies and leadership.  The graph, below, does not show the opportunity I see in the future expansion, but it does show that throughout historical periods of economic expansion, relative growth ratios tend to hover near +2.6% to +5.7%.  This level of expansion, historically, would relate to the US economy feeling optimistic about future capabilities as well as increasing earning potential.

 

US Manufacturing Output Chart

Manufacturing will likely grow to near greater than +1% for Q1 2017

Manufacturing_RealOutput

Keep the two functions in mind, as opportunities increase and the US economic activity increases, typically hiring and earnings increase as well.  This is a sign of a healthy growth phase that may, as it seems it always does, spill over into other foreign markets.  Much like the last 1990s and 2003~2006 US economic expansion phases, the historical rates of expansion averaged +4~5%.  The contraction periods (recessions : 2001 & 2008) were deep and dangerous, yet the growth phases were lengthy and substantial.  Household income growth was a key factor for extended periods of economic expansion.

 

FRED_MedHHIncome Chart

US Household Income Rising Sharply

FRED_MedHHIncome

As business activity increases, Inventory To Sales Ratios decrease.  The rational behind this factor is that sales volumes increase and inventories decrease in relation to new sales activities.  Thus, products start flying out of the warehouses and off the shelves.  Every US economic expansion phase has been paired with decreasing Inventory To Sales Ratios historically.

 

TtlBusInventory2SalesRatio Chart

Sharp increase in sales (Decreasing Inventory) after November 2016 elections

TtlBusInventory2SalesRatio

In short, this looks like “lift-off” for the US economy – at least for the immediate term perspective.  The concerns for investors are still very evident in some of the following graphs.  My opinion that the US is still, and has been for decades, the sole driving force behind much of the global economic expansion phases is based on the concept that the US, along with key partners, are the strongest and most mature economies on the planet.  I consider most of the immediate partners to the US economy as Japan, Canada, Germany and Great Britain.  I’m certain that many of you could add in 2 or 3 others, but I continue to focus on the core elements of the global economic process.  Because none of the other global economies are, in my opinion, capable of functioning well without the economic impetus of the four mature growth economies, I continue to believe these four are, and have been, the drivers of global economic growth.

 

The following chart shows why I believe a dramatic change in US economic activity will drive some level of increased economic activity throughout the world.  The combined European and Asian GDP Output graph shows severe contraction in 2013~2015.  I can only assume the continued contraction of this measurement of economic activity continued in 2016.  An increase of 10~20% of this value would result in a nominal overall increase compared to recent highs.  It would take an increase of over 70% for this measurement of economic output to be restored to 2012~2013 levels – yikes!

 

GDP_EuropAsia Chart

Europe & Asia show sharp declines in economic activities

GDP_EuropAsia

I attribute much of the GDP decreases in Europe and Asia to two factors; lack of economic expansion in the US and difficult/uncertain global economic policies in Europe and Asia.  As the earlier US Manufacturing Output chart shows, the US economic has only recently started to expand.  This is related to fears and uncertainty as related to the US election cycle (at least in part).  The recent BREXIT news as well as other issues that continue to plague Europe are also key driving factors.

 

Additionally, more and more frequent news is relating economic concerns and excessive debt levels in China.  I can attest that China’s economic reach is far and wide in most of Asia.  Any crisis originating in China will result in mini-crisis events throughout most of Asia and parts of Europe.  This is, again, why I believe continued strength in the US markets will drive US equities and economies to new highs while any “spill-over” may begin to improve foreign markets as well.  But we’ll have to wait for that “spill-over” event to actually start to happen before we see any increased valuations or activity.

 

European Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Chart

Europe in the midst of uncertainty and constricting economic leadership

EuropePolicyIndex

How does this relate to me, an active trader?  First off, it means I should be focusing on core US equity opportunities and focusing on uncertainty related commodity markets (Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas and others).  The uncertainty throughout most of the developed world will drive certain commodities to increased valuations.  What has recently happened in India with regards to currencies is already driving global events in precious metals and demand for alternate paper currencies.  What happens in France, soon, may likely drive further impetus for increasing valuations in commodities, equities and other markets.  The supply data in regards to OIL and GAS is pushing a message that oil may drop to near $30 again.  Things are changing quickly and we need to be ready to act and profit from these moves.

 

US DOW Chart

 DOW_Driver_Daily_final

 

Gold Chart

GOLD_Driver_Daily_final

The opportunities in foreign markets and in foreign equities will arise again in the future.  I can’t predict when, but I can predict that any further increased US economic activity will have a “spill-over” effect on foreign markets and will drive increase valuations – unless something acts to destroy that alignment going forward.

 

I keep my members alerted to these opportunities and provide more detailed analysis and trading triggers through ATP .  If you would like to continue to receive my research and analysis, please take a moment to visit ActiveTradingPartners.com to see how I can help you to achieve greater success.  Some of my most recent calls have been outstanding like:

 

UGAZ 10.7% Profit (Feb 21-23)

ERX 7.7% Profit (Feb 8-9th)

NUGT 112%Profit (Dec 16 – Feb 8th)

 

All the trades are based on my Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading system.

 

In short, the US stock market is back in full blown bull market with Trump re-energizing things. While I feel a short-term correction is due any day, it is just that, a short-term pullback followed by higher prices into June/July.

 

Follow my lead and start making money every month with www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

 

John Winston

Co-Author: Chris Vermeulen

Stealth ‘Bull Market’ In Stocks Still In Progress!

Elliott’s theory is based on the Dow theory in that stock prices move in waves. Because of the “fractal” nature of markets, I have broken them down so that you can trade a daily complete wave count. Fractals are mathematical structures, which on an ever-smaller scale infinitely repeat themselves. Elliott discovered stock-trading patterns were structured in the same way.

This week will be very interesting in the markets. You need to understand what the markets are telling you. The markets are at anextreme”. I trade the most profitable waves, which are impulsive waves 1,3 and 5. It takes time to develop these great trades, but it is worth the wait as you observe the profits rolling in. Do not get caught up on the wrong side of the trade. Timing the waves correctly is a critical factor for creating these profitable 1trades.

The Corrective Waves are not as easy to identify as the Impulse Waves because the Corrective Waves have more variations as compared to the Impulse Waves. Corrective Waves of any trading pattern are broadly termed as the “ABC Corrections”. Corrective Waves are always the three wave patterns that unfold in the direction opposite of the larger trend.

“ABC Corrections” is the broad name given to the Corrective Waves. The corrective patterns formed by the Corrective Waves are against the direction of the trend. Wave 1 is corrected by the Wave 2 and Wave 3 is corrected by the Wave 4. After wave 5, the wave pattern finishes and the entire move which will be corrected. This correction will occur a multiple wave move. ABC” numbered waves are also the Corrective Waves.

Based on research that I have just completed, when the January and February months are both bullish, the equity markets moved much higher for the rest of the year! (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/still-room-for-stock-bulls-to-run-as-historic-breakouts-take-shape-analysts-say-2017-02-23/email).

The SPY Fund Flow represents the weekly flows in and out. This is a ‘Contrary Indicator’. When it becomes extremely pessimistic, I then look for a reversal to the upside. When fund flows are very high, I become concerned about a correction as expectations may have become too optimistic.

2

The total put/call ratio is the volume of puts divided by the volume of calls traded on individual equities on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, on any given day.  Generally speaking, heavy volume in put contracts shows large-scale fear by options traders, while heavy call volume is usually a reflection of increased investor optimism in regards to rising prices.  When there is heavy put buying and low call buying, the put/call ratio will be high. When an extreme is reached, this becomes a bullish contrarian indicator and we should expect higher market prices ahead of us. When option traders are optimistic and there is low put volume in relation to call volume, then the put/call ratio will be low and we may be nearing a market high.  The interpretation of this indicator is the same as the equity put/call ratio itself – high readings show fear and are generally bullish for the market. Low readings, show excessive optimism as the market typically declines after they are seen.

3

The GLD Fund Flow Weekly Indicator represents the daily flows into and out of GLD: (http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/api.php?action=viewNews&aid=8343471&page=Stock%3ASPDR_Gold_Trust_%28GLD%29&comments=0&format=html).

Contrary Indicators are measuring the fund flows. When it becomes extremely pessimistic, then I begin to look for a possible reversal to the upside. When fund flows are very high, then I become concerned about a correction as expectations have become too optimistic. Why gold is great again: (https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2017/02/25/president-trump-replace-the-dollar-with-gold-as-the-global-currency-to-make-america-great-again/#23cdf01f4d54)

4

5

 

 

The Commitment of Traders (COT) Indicator gives you the overall picture of what is happening behind the scenes. It tells you who is buying and who is selling!  This information is an important key for your trading success!

The commercial traders are considered the “Smart Money”. The chart below displays, as of February 21st, 2017, that the commercial traders have taken new long positions.  This matches up perfectly with my long-term Elliot Wave forecast of 2550, in the SPX.

 

Red Bars: The Commercial Traders
(i.e.: Farmers, Hedgers, Producers, and Factories)

Blue Bars: The Large Speculators
(i.e.: Banks and Large Financial Money Managers)

Green Bars: The Small Speculators
(i.e.: You and me)

Yellow Line: The overall open interest in the market.

6

7

The next setup for going long on Natural Gas.

8

The U.S. dollar: Waiting for trend confirmation.

9

10

Learn how to build wealth during 2017!

Every week, there are new actionable trade ideas. Avoid what I refer to as “Herd Mentality” which will put you on the losing side of the trades more often than not.

Our most recent trade was UGAZ:( http://etfdb.com/etf/UGAZ/) on February 21st, 2017. We sold half of this position to lock in a quick 10+% profit in two days. Previous trades generated a 112% profit within 25 days (NUGT), and 7.7% profit (ERX) within 24 hours.

 

Stock Market bulls will continue their historic breakouts!

The Trump Administration’s promises of tax cuts and regulatory easing is the catalyst for the markets’ recent strong advance. Mr. David Dodd’s timeless classic saying: “The market in the short term is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine”. This is the second most bullish market, after an election, since President Kennedy took office.

The Research Investment Committee commented “Monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies could be key drivers in 2017, but the timing of those actions could cause volatility”.  New regulatory action will favor many stocks in the financial and energy sectors. Repatriation will occur under President Trump’s new corporate tax plans. The U.S. currently operates under a tax system in which the domestic earnings of U.S. corporations are taxed at the federal U.S. corporate rate (35%) and any overseas earnings that are repatriated are taxed at this rate less a credit for foreign taxes paid on those same earnings. Foreign earnings have been parked offshore, allowing corporations to avoid the taxes associated with bringing them back to the U.S. These U.S. Companies would be granted an eight-year period to pay their tax liability. President Trump’s plan calls for a one -time deemed repatriation of overseas corporate profits at a 10% tax rate.

 

Conclusion:

In short, the US stock market is back in full blown bull market with truck reenergizing things. While I feel a short-term correction is due any day, it is just that, a short-term pullback followed by higher prices into June/July.

Tuned For More Analysis and Trades at: www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

What Investors Need To Know About U.S. Money Market Funds?

Why Low Risk Does Not Equate To Risk Free!

Charles Schwab has informed its’ clients that “at least 80% of the fund’s net assets will be invested solely in U.S. government securities…”.   Schwab automatically assumes that all clients affected by this change will accept: “if you are in agreement with this change in your cash feature, no response is required from you. They consider a non-response from its’ clients to be notice. “Those who disagree have the “option” of either sweeping their cash into the corporate bank exposing them to greater risk.  They add “you also have the right to close your brokerage account(s) without penalty at any time.”

Who will be the most recent owners of the rest of the current and future new debt?  The answer is:  YOU.  U.S. Mutual funds, U.S. pension funds and American investors. Why?  Because our insolvent government needs Americans to finance it before the entire house of cards come crashing down!  One’s ability to take your savings out of banks and store it in cash is coming to an end. U.S. Institutions are holding up to 99.5% of assets in cash, U.S. government securities, and repurchase agreements that are collateralized solely by the U.S. Government’s good faith.

“Debt-As-Legal-Tender”

This will make it much more difficult for one to be able to access any/all of your personal cash which was always considered to be accessible liquid risk free funds. What will American citizens do when they realize they were conned into “toxic investments” and decide to just pull their cash out of the banks and store it themselves?  If you do take possession of your savings in cash, how secure do you feel when the government comes knocking on your door asking about your stockpile of cash?  Schwab and others are taking preemptive action now to move your money into U.S. debt.

The top complaints and reviews about Schwab refusing to honor its’ clients’ money:( https://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/schwab.html).  Fidelity is also causing the same problems for its’ clients, as well: (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/fidelity.html).

This is just a new vehicle in which the U.S. Federal Government is taking control of your cash and converting it into “toxic assets” to be spread out amongst us all.  Why? The answer is to cover our enslavement of $19.9 trillion debt which is growing with each passing second.  The Current outstanding public debt of the United States is: $19,926,581,166,878.36 as of Monday, February 20th, 2017. That equates to everyone, in the United States, currently owing $65,586 which represents their share of the U.S. public debt.

chart

Public Debt: $14,403,392,566,439.40
Intragovernmental Holdings: $5,523,188,600,438.96
Total U.S. National Debt: $19,926,581,166,878.36

 

Who owns the public debt?

Foreign governments own the most U.S. debt.

chart1

 

This has been done under the auspices of the S.E.C. (Securities Exchange Commission): (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec.asp).  They implemented the New Money Fund Reform Rules”:

(https://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370542347679). The rules require fund providers to institute liquidity fees and suspension gates as a means of preventing a run on the fund. The requirements include asset level triggers for imposing a liquidity fee of 1% or 2%. If weekly liquid assets fall below 10% of total assets, it triggers a 1% fee. Below 30%, the fee is increased to 2%. Funds may also suspend redemptions for up to 10 business days in a 90-day period. These are the official rule changes; there are several factors investors should know about the reform and how it will affect them during its’ implementation.

The move for money market fund reform grew out of the 2007–2008 ‘financial crisis’. The Reserve Primary Fund recently settled its’ claims:( “ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING YIELD PLUS FUND-IN LIQUIDATION (Formerly known as Reserve Yield Plus Fund) DATE OF FINAL DISTRIBUTION WEDNESDAY, JUNE 15, 2016” ): (Reserve Primary Fund).  The fund had assets totaling $62 billion. The class action suit brought against them resulted in a mere $10 million settlement: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/09/08/money-fund-broke-buck-deal-managers/2782931/). The 2008 financial crisis precipitated by The  Reserve Primary Fund (Reserve Primary Fund)  when it was forced to reduce its’ net asset value (NAV) of its’ money market fund below $1, due to huge losses, which were generated by failed short-term loans issued by Lehman Brothers. It was the first time a major money market fund had to break the $1 NAV which caused panic among institutional investors, who consequently began mass redemptions. The fund lost two-thirds of its’ assets within 24 hours and eventually had to suspend operations and commence liquidation.  This event prompted significant redemptions by institutional money market fund investors, putting the funds under severe financial stress.  The Reserve Primary Fund, which invested in Lehman Brothers debt, “broke the buck”: (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/08/money-market-break-buck.asp).

The S.E.C. Chairwoman. Mary Jo White, said “Today’s reforms fundamentally change the way that money market funds operate. They will reduce the risk of runs in money market funds and provide important new tools that will help further protect investors and the financial system. Together, this strong reform package will make our markets more resilient and enhance transparency and fairness of these products for America’s investors.”  This is what the SEC wants Americans to believe and buy into it!

The official final amendments to money market rules, which were made in 2014, for protecting shareholders from the impacts that a flood of redemptions could have on money market funds is how the S.E.C. is rationalizing this dilemma. The amendments are also intended to give fund managers enough time to respond to requests in a more thoughtful, prudent manner and in a much slower period.

  • Fidelity is converting its’ largest prime fund into a U.S. government fund. Federated is taking steps to shorten the maturities of its’ prime funds to make it easier to maintain a $1 NAV.  Vanguard is assuring its’ investors that its’ prime funds have more than enough liquidity to avoid triggering a liquidity fee or redemption suspension.

The Bank of America Corp. sold its’ money market business to BlackRock, Inc. to avoid these types of future problems.

  • Restricts who can invest in retail money market funds.
  • Continues to seek a stable $1 net asset value (NAV) for retail and government funds, but requires institutional funds to have floating NAVs like other mutual funds.
  • Allows certain funds to impose liquidity fees and temporarily suspend withdrawals (known as gates) in certain circumstances.

 

Gold Is Money!

Global negative interest rates have shifted the worlds’ appetite to buying gold and silver, once again. Gold and silver can sit outside the system and remain completely private. It cannot be tracked by the government or banks. Gold and silver have been the world’s greatest wealth protectors for over 5,000 years. It has shielded its’ citizens from government and banking collapses during the worst crises in history. Physical gold and silver cannot be instantly seized with the stroke of a keyboard. This is why I believe we should invest in gold and silver, before we have potentially nothing left to protect. Its two things to me: a store of untraced wealth, and an insurance policy in case something really bad happens. I like feeling financially protected and this is one way I do this.

 

Timing Is Everything!

The next BIG TRADE is setting up. You should take advantage of my hard work and expertise to make you short term profitable trades. Protect your financial future by getting my market and trade alert reports every week. Your portfolio should involve a proven strategy which I provide.

We have just entered a new commodity trade (UGAZ) Feb 21 as its forming a bottoming pattern. We have locked in 10% in 36 hours and hold the remaining for much larger gains. Do you want to be in the next trade of the Next Hot Stock setup?  My subscribers banked a 112% in a swing trade with NUGT (Dec 16 – Feb 8th). All the trades are based on my Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading system.

Another trade this month was ERX, in which we took a nice profit of 7.7% in less than 24 hours after entry.  All risks are well contained.

Follow my lead and start making money every month with www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

John Winston
Co-Author: Chris Vermeulen

Gold, Silver, Dollar Cycles – Part III

Gold is setting up for a historic rally based on my analysis.  Recent news provides further evidence that the Precious Metals and Currencies are in for a wild ride.  Just this week, news that China’s reserves fell below $3 Trillion as well as the implications that the fall to near $2T in reserves could happen before the end of 2017.  Additionally, we have recent news that the EU may be under further strain with regards to Greece, the IMF and debt.  The accumulation of Precious Metals should be on everyone’s mind as well as the potential for a breakout rally.

 

Based on my analysis, I would estimate that near June or July 2017, Gold will be near $1315 ~ $1341 (+13% from recent lows).  This level correlates to a Fibonacci frequency that has been in place for over 3 years now.  A second Fibonacci frequency rate would put the project advancement levels, possibly closer to October/November 2017, near $1421 (+21% from recent lows).  After these levels are reached, I expect a pullback to near $1261 if the Gold rally ends near $1315~1341 or to near $1308~1309 if the Gold rally ends near $1421.  This pullback would setup a massive next wave rally to $1585 or $1731.  So, if you need confirmation of this move, just wait for any rally to end above $1315, then wait for a pullback below $1280 or $1315 and BUY.

 

Subscribers and followers of my work profited handsomely this month locking a 112% profit with NUGT ETF with my service at ActiveTradingPartners.

 

Remember, the volatility expansion I am expecting in the VIX near March/April will likely be the precursor event to a much larger volatility expansion later this year.  I can’t accurately detail the scale and scope of the projected March/April event other than it will likely be larger than the last VIX expansion.  I expect these global debt events to unravel the low volatility activity we have been seeing and shake up global markets/currencies.  Within this process, Precious Metals will likely see a massive upside run as a protection from uncertainty and risk.

 

 

GCJ17_Daily

 

GCJ17_Weekly

 

 

Silver Rally

Much like Gold, the other shiny metal is set for incredible runs as well.  Given my Fibonacci frequency analysis, a similar type of patter may occur in Silver.  Before we get too much further into this analysis, let me be clear about one thing.  We are already nearly +50% towards the upside rally target in Silver based on simple Fibonacci frequency.  This target is $19.10.  This does not mean this is the end of the run (yet).  It means we have already achieved some success in one level of predictive analysis and now we need to see if the second Fibonacci frequency plays out.  The second Fibonacci frequency target is $20.78 (nearly +25% from recent lows)

 

Much like the Gold analysis, after these levels are reached, I expect a retracement/pullback to levels that reflect the Fibonacci frequencies before a follow through rally continues.  The first Fibonacci frequency pullback range is $18.26~$17.85.  The second, larger, Fibonacci frequency pullback range is $19.50~$18.82.  Case in point, these retracement levels are based on what I can determine as common Fibonacci frequencies.  The pullbacks could be deeper and reflect more uncommon frequency functions.  As of right now, I don’t believe that will be the case – but I could be wrong on this matter.  In any event, once the rally points ($19.10 or $20.78) are reached and Silver pulls back to below my retracement objectives ($18.26~$17.85 or $19.50~$18.82 respectively), look for long entry positions or accumulate more physical metals.  Want to know what my upside “second wave” objective might be based on my frequency analysis for Silver?

 

Silver Charts – Daily & Weekly

SIH17_Dailly

 

SIH17_Weekly

Seeing as though you have been so patient in reading my analysis/article regarding these VIX cycle patterns and what I believe could happen with the US and global markets, I’m going to shed a little light into the future cycle phases of Silver.  We’ll focus on Silver for one reason, it is a cheaper precious metal for most traders to participate in and it has some very interesting facets of cycle/Fibonacci analysis.  One key date range that keeps appearing in my cycle analysis is April 17th through April 24th.

 

Additionally, June 26, July 31 and August 14 appear to be key cycle dates.  Given my earlier analysis, I suspect the April dates will be critical to the VIX cycle spike that I’m expecting.  It could also drive further expansion or price rotation in the Gold, Silver and OIL charts.  What is interesting about these Fibonacci Time/Price “inflection points” is that they can be drivers of many outcomes (rallies, collapses, rotations, tops or bottoms).  They simply tell us that we need to be aware of these dates and they may, and will likely, present key information for future decision making.

 

Now, onto the extended projections for Silver.  If my first, shorter, Fibonacci frequency is correct, any subsequent (second wave) rally will likely start near $17.85~$18.15 sometime near or after April 10, 2017.  This second phase rally will likely run to near $21.46 before finding resistance (possibly slightly higher).  Target objective date ranges for this rally to end are June 19 through July 24.

 

If my second, longer/larger, Fibonacci frequency analysis is correct, any subsequent (second wave) rally will likely start near $18.80  sometime near or after May 8, 2017 and run to near $24.85 before finding resistance (possibly higher).  Target objective date ranges for this rally to end are July 3 through August 7 (or later).

 

 

Remember, these second wave projections in Silver represent a 20.5% and 32.85% rally from my projected retracement levels.  These are massive moves and I hope you are all able to take advantage of these triggers.  Gold should move in somewhat similar manners – so pay attention.  Smart traders and followers of ATP newsletter may take advantage of trades to play these moves.

 

USD (US Dollar) and Foreign Currencies

I touched on this topic earlier, yet I feel the need to provide further documentation regarding my belief that the USD will continue to enjoy renewed strength at least for the next few months.  First, I expect the global weakness in foreign markets to continue to propel the USD and the US stock market to greater attempts at new highs.  I believe large amounts of money will keep pouring into the US markets for reasons that are obvious to most – US strength and capabilities for growth.  As I often tell my clients, if the US is growing, so is the rest of the world.  The current situation is a bit different though as the US markets and currency is, as I believe, going to be a standout marketplace in a global pot of debt and confusion.

 

There is one level of resistance on the USD that we have to be concerned with, the $102.25 level.  Beyond that, I believe the USD could reach $104~105 before August 2017.  The possibility that a VIX expansion could drive the USD higher would be more highly correlated if there is some external (global) event that provides a catalyst for a stronger US Dollar.  For example, a crisis in Europe, Greece or Asia that undermines expected currency valuations and results in strength in the USD.  Right now, I would put that possibility at about 50/50 given some of the news items I’m seeing and the continued fundamental strength of the US economy.

USD Daily & Weekly Charts

USD_Daily

 

USD_Weekly

 

The EURUSD relationship will continue to see downward pressure with a likely target objective near 1.035 as a first target.  This downward pressure could drive the EURUSD valuations well below this level, but I feel the potential for the EURUSD falling below the 1.00 level is still far off.  It would take a global cataclysmic event to drive the EURUSD values below PAR.  I’m not saying it could happen, but I am saying I don’t see it happening anytime soon (without a global cataclysmic event).

 

My Fibonacci frequency target levels for the EURUSD are 1.014 and 0.999.  As I stated, I don’t believe there is much downside risk below 0.99 unless the EU completely collapses.  I still feel the Euro will survive as a global currency near PAR with the USD.

 

EURUSD Daily & Weekly Charts

EURUSD_Daily

 

EURUSD_Weekly

 

Take a look at some of my recent trades to see how we’ve been able to generate profits for our valued members.

atpperffeb

 

I hope you have enjoyed my analysis of the VIX cycle patterns and how the relate to opportunities for all traders?  If you find this type of analysis helpful and want to take advantage of clear, concise and profitable trading signals, visit ActiveTradingPartners.com where I share even more detailed analysis and trading triggers with my members.

John Winston
Co-Author: Chris Vermeulen
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

Today’s World Rests on an Empire of Debt

Here is a great video that shares the brutal truth and issues taking place today with the financial markets. Obama and Fed Chairwoman Agree as shown on video…

Obama and Fed Chairwoman Agree as shown in video…

Fast track video START AT 4:22 time where Mike shares his insights.

You can get on this special email list to learn more and to profit from this turmoil – Click Here

FAST TRACK VIDEO START AT 4:22 TIME

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The Trump Rally Is Just Getting Started!

Have you ever been presented with an opportunity and missed out on it?  Well, here is an opportunity you Do NOT want to miss out on.

Based upon my unique “Cycle Analytical” work combined with my “Proprietary Predictive Analytics Model, I can assure you that there are new highs to be made in the U.S. stock. Appling my unique metric, which are not available to the public, I can inform you that the stock markets are not overbought or overextended, at present. The market remains in a clear bullish trend!  This next new leg is very sustainable!

 

Technically Speaking, It Is Now Back To “Buy The Dip”:

The SPX, Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all-time highs last Friday, February 10th,2017.  The Trump Rally is just getting started according to Bloomberg.

Investors should expect that the global markets will continue their bull market run throughout the first half of 2017 rather than forming a top which leads to a bear market. “Extremes” have lost their’ meanings, at this point. The Federal Reserve has given the green light to major banks in the U.S. to raise dividends and buy back shares of their companies. The huge thrust in momentum has now returned to the four U.S. stock indexes.

Nicholas Teo of KGI Securities said that: “Ever since his victory in November, global stock markets have been steered by actions events rhetoric emanating from the new commander-in-chief”.

The trigger events show the willingness of the markets to give the Trump Administration a lot more ‘slack’ as we engage into 2017.  Billions of dollars are continuing to flow into the U.S. real estate market from Chinese nationals. They are using their offshore cash reserves to make payments on the properties they have speculated on in the U.S. There are also big-money speculators who have the sophistication needed to circumvent China’s Capital Controls.

Blackrock estimates that there is a whopping $50 trillion in cash “sitting on the sidelines”. This money has come from global central-banks, financial-firm reserves and consumer savings accounts.  Blackstone is keeping nearly one-third of its’ assets in cash. Fund managers have increased their reserves to levels that equal the highest since 2001. This means that there is a lot of liquidity with nowhere to go, but UP.

We are still in the early days of the new Trump Administration and everything seems to be going his way. President Trump’s proposed economic policies are being well received by U.S. businesses, especially Wall Street big banks. His plans are certainly positive – such as deregulation, defunding of various useless federal agencies, simplification of the tax code and lowering taxes. Many people, including some of the best money managers, in the world, are at a loss trying to figure out where to put their money, right now.  However, all that you need to do this year is to follow my lead as I strive to make profitable returns and be on the right side of all markets, and you cannot afford to miss any hugely profitable setup this year!

 

All of the indicators continue to suggest higher prices ahead! 

The Elliott Wave Principle is a description of how groups of people behave. It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism thereby creating specific and measurable patterns. In the chart below, repeating patterns in prices are displayed showing where we are located at any given time. In those repeating patterns, I can predict where we are going next.

 

Wave 5:

Wave 5: Wave five is the last leg in the primary direction of the dominant trend.  Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. Prices will make a new high above the top of wave 3.

 tr1

 

How To Make Money In 2017!

Do you trade like the professionals do? Most traders make the same mistakes – which is why they consistently lose money!  Implementing my winning strategy by receiving SMS text alerts every time we enter or close a trade is the best way to get you setup and be profitable on the same day!  Trading and focusing on my Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) and trading just the hot stocks and sectors for quick oversized gains is my expertise. Therefore, these momentum trades are moving significantly in one direction on heavy volume. The length of time for which I may hold a momentum trade depends on how quickly the trade is moving with trades lasting 3-25 days in length and we look for a7%- 35% potential gain.

Momentum traders are truly a unique group of individuals. Unlike other traders or analysts who dissect a company’s financial statements or chart patterns, a momentum trader is only concerned with stocks in the news. These stocks will be the high percentage and volume movers of the day/week.

Read more: Momentum Traders | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-stock-trader-types/momentum-traders.asp#ixzz4YY8FK9VY
On February 8th, 2017, myself and subscribers closed out our NUGT trade for a 112% profit that we entered into on December 16th.2016,

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Sometimes stocks move very fast.  As I enter any new swing trades, I will immediately send out these alerts to you on your mobile device.

On February 8th, 2017, we entered the ERX at $33.00.  Right after we got into this trade, ERX, (http://etfdb.com/etf/ERX/), we were up 6% to 8% and we closed half our position.  Instantly receiving these alerts on your mobile device can make a huge difference in both time and profits as you saw in the ERX setup!  I always send out my swing trades to my members by SMS, but keep in mind most trades can be entered within a 1-3 day period as I don’t catch exact market bottoms or tops.

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America Is Happy, Again!

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A recent Gallup Poll reported that American’s confidence in the U.S. economy remained strong in January of 2017. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +11, which is the highest monthly average reached in Gallup’s nine-year trend. I just came across this video that is enough to make you start thinking about changing your long term portfolio asset allocation – Watch Video Here

 

So, if you are looking for a simplified and highly accurate pulse on the markets, along with timely swing trades, I urge you to join my newsletter at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com.

 

Chris Vermeulen

VIX Cycles set to explode in March/April 2017 – Part 2

Previously, I authored a “Part 1” of this article regarding my analysis of the VIX cycles.  I sincerely hope my readers enjoyed the analysis and I hope it opened up a few questions regarding the potential moves in the US and global markets.  Today, we will delve deeper into the concept of the VIX cycle patterns that I’ve identified and use common technical analysis concepts to attempt to identify price target levels as well as support and resistance that may become important in the immediate future.

 

For those of you that missed “VIX Cycles set to explode in March/April 2017 – Part 1”, please click on this link to review my earlier analysis.  When you are ready, the rest of this article continues my analysis.

 

As we had been discussing in “Part 1”, my hypothesis that a 5 month VIX cycle pattern exists and has been driving market volatility since 2015 appears to be substantiated by historical chart evidence.  The other interesting facet of this 5 month pattern is that it appears to be quickening in relation to recent activity.  I stated earlier that I believe this pattern to be a 18~22 week cycle event, but more recent VIX chart activity shows the current range may be more like 16~20 weeks.  My understanding of cycles and patterns is that within extreme, potentially violently, volatile periods, price cycles may become more frequent and velocity may become more volatile.  An example of this can be found in my long-term US major market cycle analysis below.

 

This image maps a major market cycle rotation process that has been in place for over 60 years.  This image starts in the late 1970s and maps TOP and BOTTOM cycling events and well as potential early and late stage cycle ranges.  When the GREEN and YELLOW levels, near the top, move above the 80% range, this starts the “Topping cycle event”.  When both of these levels fall below the 80% range, this ends the “Topping cycle event”.  The opposite is true for the BLUE and RED levels.  When both of them fall below the 20% level, this starts a “Bottoming cycle event”.  When they both leave the 20% level, this ends the “Bottoming cycle event”.  Actual price tops and bottoms can, and often do, occur within these event ranges.

 

US Cycle Chart

TopBottom2

Price and event cycles have been in place for centuries and correlate with other traditional forms of technical analysis easily.  For example, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Price Channeling and Price Patterns all relate to cycles very well.  Within this article, I’m using Price Patterns as well as Fibonacci to attempt to project and identify key target, support and resistance levels based on my understanding of the proposed VIX cycles.

 

Recent price expansion from the lows at $868.47, January 2016, prompted a rally to $1194.60, on April 25, 2016.  This range, $326.13, represents an expansion cycle and a Fibonacci range that we can use to determine Fibonacci cycle frequency – which may help us determine future price objectives.  After this peak, price dropped 25% of this range (a common Fibonacci level that is correlated to a real Fib value of 0.272) equaling $81.53.  Because of this narrow retracement, we should expect a potential future price move equaling 1.272%, 1.618% or 1.768% of the existing range.  XOI rallied to $1259.56 on December 12, 2016 – equating the expected 1.272% price expansion we projected and setting up for a 0.768% total range retracement.

 

Let’s take a look at one example – OIL (XOI)

XOI_Weekly

 

Last week followers, subscribers and I got long 3x long energy fund – ERX.

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In 24 hours we locked in a 7.7% partial profit, and are now sitting with 10+% gain on the balance. This special setup I call the Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) continues to be in play and we could experience another 20-35% gain from here.

 

What does all this technical stuff mean? After this bounce we should expect XOI to fall back to near $976.00 before attempting any further price moves.  All of this type of Fibonacci work is conducted by understanding how Fibonacci price relationships correlate to time/price/cycle frequency functions.  Many of the best analysts of the past had detailed understandings of how these correlations work and how price would react based on larger and longer term time/price/cycle events.

 

Stay Tuned For Gold & Silver Forecast Next – Part 3

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