How to Know If This Rally Will Continue for Two More Months?

Our research has been “spot on” with regards to the markets for the first few weeks of 2018.  We issued our first trade on Jan 2nd, plus two very detailed research reports near the end of 2017 and early 2018.  We urge you to review these research posts as they tell you exactly what to expect for the first Quarter in 2018.

 

Continuing this research, we have focused our current effort on the Transportation Index, the US Majors, and the Metals Markets.  The Transportation Index has seen an extensive rally (+19.85%) originating near November 2017.  This incredible upside move correlates with renewed US Tax policies and Economic increases that are sure to drive the US Equity market higher throughout 2018.

 

In theory, the Transportation Index is a measure of economic activity as related to the transportation of goods from port to distribution centers and from distribution centers to retail centers.  The recent jump in the Transportation Index foretells of strong economic activity within the US for at least the next 3 months.

 

One could, and likely should watch the Transportation Index for any signs of weakness or contraction which would indicate an economic slowdown about to unfold.  In order to better understand how the Transportation Index precedes the US Equity markets by 2~5 months, let’s compare the current price activity to that of 2007~08.

 

This first chart is the current Transportation Index and shows how strong the US economic recovery is in relation to the previous year (2017).  As the US economy has continued to strengthen and open up new opportunities, the Transportation Index has related this strength by increasing by near +20% in only a few short months.  This shows us that we should continue to expect a moderate to strong bullish bias for at least the first quarter of 2018 – unless something dramatic changes in relation to economic opportunities.

 

CURRENT TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

 

In comparison, this chart (below) is the Transportation Index in 2007~08 which reacted quite differently.  The economic environment was vastly different at this time.  The US Fed had raised rates consecutively over a two year period leading up to a massive debt/credit crisis.  At the same time, the US had a Presidential Election cycle that saw massive uncertainty with regards to regulation, policies and economic opportunities.  Delinquencies as related to debt had already started to climb and the markets reacted to the economic alarms ringing from all corners of the globe.  The Transportation Index formed a classic “rollover top” formation in late 2007 and early 2008 well before the global markets really began to tank.

 

2007~08 TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

 

Our analysis points to a very strong first quarter of 2018 within the US and for US Equities.  We believe the economic indicators will continue to perform well and, at least for the next 3 months, will continue to drive strong equity growth.  We do expect some volatility near the end of the first Quarter as well as continued 2~5% price volatility/rotation at times.  There will be levels of contraction in the markets that are natural and healthy for this rally.  So, be prepared for some rotation that could be deeper than what we have seen over the last 6 months.

 

In conclusion, equities are this point are overpriced, and overbought based on the short-term analysis. We should be entering slightly weaker time for large-cap stocks over the next couple weeks before it goes much higher. Because we are still in a full out bull market, Dips Should Be Bought and we will notify members of a new trade once we get another one of these setups.

 

In our next post, we are going to talk about two opportunities in precious metals forming for next week!

 

Read the analysis we presented before the end of 2017 regarding our predictive modeling systems and how we target our research to helping our members.  If you believe our analysis is accurate and timely, then we urge you to subscribe to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to support our work and to benefit from our signals.  We believe 2018 – 2020 will be the years that strategic trades will outperform all other markets.  Join us in our efforts to find and execute the best trading opportunities and profit from these fantastic setups.

 

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Oil Trading At A 3 Year High, Now Where?

The Technical Trader Chris Vermeulen is with us today to share his thoughts on the oil sector. With crude over $62/barrel this is a level we have not seen since late 2014. The recovery has been slow for oil but it has built a nice base which typically results in a more powerful rally. Chris is careful to point out that he is not expecting a straight up move from here. We also look at the recovery underway in the dollar.

GET HIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADE SETUPS
– CLICK HERE –

Free Issue of Tradersworld Magazine Courtesy of Technical Traders Ltd.

Articles in this issue:

  • The Higher Purpose of Gann Theory
  • Penetrating the Essense of Gann
  • PREPARING FOR THE CRYPTOCURRENCY SWAN EVENT – Pg 10-14
  • Price and Time Targets
  • Time is Money
  • W.D. Ganns Squaring Time and Price
  • How to Avoid Trading Traps with Astro-Trading Tools
  • The Importance of Trading at Least Two
  • The 6.5 Year Cycle in U.S. Stocks
  • Trade Directional Price Moves
  • The Mental Block shat Stops You from Conquering Your Fear

To view, it now click

https://tradersworld.com/issue68.pdf

No Fear as the Dow Tops a Record 25000

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author of the book: Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

2018 US Market Rally Is Just Starting

Last week, we posted our research showing that the US markets were setting up for a 2018 Q1 rally based on our research using our advanced predictive analysis modeling tools – the Adaptive Dynamic Learning model.  This model attempts to find unique price, technical and indicator patterns in past price bars and then attempts to find similar patterns in newer price bars.  When multiple price bars with similar pattern structures are found, it maps these as “unique genomic structures” and attempt to learn from the future price activities.  This unique modeling system was created by our team of skilled market researchers in an attempt to provide accurate insight into the markets future price swings.

 

In doing so, our predictive analysis modeling systems can attempt to tell us what is the highest likelihood of price activity going out 10, 15 and even 20 daily bars into the future. The forecasted highs and lows you should focus on are the yellow lines. The closer together these yellow lines are (predicted high/predicted low, the more confident we can be that prices should follow this path.  The farther apart they are, the more likely we will see increased volatility and the potential for larger swings in price range.

 

The article we posted last week was titled “2018 First Quarter Rally” for your reference.

 

As of this week, only a few days into the new 2018 trading year, the US markets are already up between 1~2.5% and likely have another 1~3% more upside activity before finding any resistance.  Let’s take a look at some charts.

 

This Weekly chart of the Nasdaq (NQ) clearly shows the expected future price levels and ranges going out nearly three months into the future.  You can see from this chart that the YELLOW LINES are predicting generally higher price levels through the end of February 2018 when a sudden price consolidation is expected.  This will likely result in a 2~5% price decline sometime between February 21 and March 26, 2018.  After this brief rotation, the Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system is predicting further price advancements in the range of 2~3% or more before stalling again in late April 2018. So pay attention, any lows in the NQ below 6485 are likely very strong BUY TRIGGERS.

Now, let’s take a look at the SPY on a Weekly basis.

 

The SPY chart is more uniform in structure and alignment with the ADL predictive modeling system.  This tells us that the price volatility for this symbol will be more muted than the NQ Futures chart.  It also tells us that we may not see the same level of volatility enter the SPY till after January 22, 2018 – which is when the first real measurable divergence in predictive price levels happens.

 

The first measurable rally in the SPY in 2018 should be about 2.5~3% from 2017 closing price levels and end near February 12th or so.  This move will be followed by a very short downside price correction of about -1~2% ending near March 10th~16th.  The next leg higher could be relatively large with a 3~5% rally through the end of April 2018.

We are predicting that this first Quarter in 2018 will see a continued market rally with a brief pause/stall in price near the end of February or early March.  We believe the Q1 final results will be the  NQ ending 3~5% higher than the 2017 closing price and the SPY ending 5~6% higher than the 2017 closing price.  Are you ready for this move?  Do you know which stock or ETF you should trade for maximum return? We can help you!

 

So far, our predictions about 2018 have been very accurate with this modeling system and you should be able to see the value of “being able to see into the future” with our various forecasting modeling system. Our team of researchers and professionals at Technical Traders Ltd. are here to assist you in finding and executing profitable trades each week with our unique research, modeling tools and trade alerts.  Imagine how much more successful 2018 would be for you if you knew what the rest of the year would look like?

 

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you in finding and executing successful strategies during the next two years as the major trends start to shift and new strategies will be required to profit from elevated volatility and falling prices.  Join today and make 2018 one of your best trading years yet.

 

Chris Vermeulen

First Technical Trade of 2018 – QQQ

The past week our forecasts have been dead on in terms of timing intraday tops, bottoms, along with oversold levels.

The 30-minute chart of the SP500 index shows the two gap fills, oversold buying zones, and our recent forecast yesterday afternoon which was for a continued rally. Everything has played out as expected thus far.

 

 

Subscribers of our Technical Trading Wealth Building Newsletter have already taken profits on our first trade of the year with QQQ. This trade setup was a no-brainer as it had multiple technical reasons to get long for an imminent pop/rally. Below is the recent trade issued to our group of traders.

 

 

 

As you can see in the QQQ chart below the market gave us an oversold condition which we entered long the next trading session and have now taken partial profits for quick and easy money.

 

 

 

If you want to make the most of out of 2018 with your trading and long-term investment positions join our Wealth Building Trading Newsletter Today – CLICK HERE

Another $300+ Gap Fill In 18 Minutes Today. Next…

See chart below for a visual of the gap fill we expected to take place this morning based on price analysis and intraday cycles. Keep in mind, a 6 point move may not seem like much, but if you are a futures traders as I am 6 points is $300 profit per contract in 18 minutes…
Remember nearly 100% gap windows get filled within a couple days… these are steady income trades…
Image
If you want to know what the market are going to do today, this week, and next month be sure to subscribe to our new and improved market trend forecast and trading newsletter: http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/

2018 First Quarter Technical Analysis Price Forecast

As 2017 draws to a close, our analysis shows the first Quarter of 2018 should start off with a solid rally.  Our researchers use our proprietary modeling and technical analysis systems to assist our members with detailed market analysis and timing triggers from expected intraday price action to a multi-month outlook.  These tools help us to keep our members informed of market trends, reversals, and big moves.  Today, we are going to share some of our predictive modelings with you to show you why we believe the first three months of 2018 should continue higher.

 

One of our most impressive and predictive modeling systems is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning system.  This system allows us to ask the market what will be the highest possible outcome of recent trading activity projected into the future.  It accomplishes this by identifying Genetic Price/Pattern markers in the past and recording them into a Genome Map of price activity and probable outcomes.  This way, when we ask it to show us what it thinks will be the highest probable outcome for the future, it looks into this Genome Map, finds the closest relative Genetic Price/Pattern marker and then shows us what this Genome marker predicts as the more likely outcome.

 

This current Weekly chart of the SPY is showing us that the next few Weeks and Months of price activity should produce a minimum of a $5 – $7 rally. This means that we could see a continued 2~5% rally in US Equities early in 2018.

Additionally, the ES (S&P E-mini futures) is confirming this move in early 2018 with its own predictive analysis.  The ADL modeling system is showing us that the ES is likely to move +100 pts from current levels before the end of the first Quarter 2018 equating to a +3.5% move (or higher).  We can see from this analysis that a period of congestion or consolidation is expected near the end of January or early February 2018 – which would be a great entry opportunity.

The trends for both of these charts is strongly Bullish and the current ADL price predictions allow investors to understand the opportunities and expectations for the first three months of 2018.  Imagine being able to know or understand that a predictive modeling system can assist you in making decisions regarding the next two to three months as well as assist you in planning and protecting your investments?  How powerful would that technology be to you?

 

Our job at Technical Traders Ltd. is to assist our members in finding and executing profitable trades and to assist them in understanding market trends, reversals, and key movers.  We offer a variety of analysis types within our service to support any level of a trader from novice to expert, and short-term to long-term investors.

 

Our specialized modeling systems allow us to provide one-of-a-kind research and details that are not available anywhere else.  Our team of researchers and traders are dedicated to helping us all find great success with our trading.

 

So, now that you know what to expect from the SPY and ES for the next few months, do you want to know what is going to happen in Gold, Silver, Bonds, FANGs, the US Dollar, Bitcoin, and more?  Joining www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to gain this insight and knowledge today.

 

Chris Vermeulen

Sure, you’re into Bitcoin…but do you know how to get out?

People are starting to park their money in digital currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than parking them in fiat currencies.

The institutional investors are recognizing this outcome, hence, they are the largest group of Bitcoin buyers.

If you are looking for an easy way to buy and sell bitcoin I use this simple crypto wallet called coin CoinBase. While Bitcoin is not now, it won’t be forever and I talk about it in this interview I recorded on Tuesday.

Get Chris’ Technical Insights and Trades – Click Here

Should you consider investing/buying Gold?

Recently, we have been asked by a number of clients about the precious metals and what our advice would be with regards to buying, selling or holding physical or trading positions in the metals.  There are really only a few short and simple answers to this question and they revolve around the concept of providing a hedge against risk, capital preservation and opportunity for returns.  Let’s explore the details a bit further.

 

First, Gold, historically, has been and will continue to be the basis of physical wealth for the foreseeable future.  Currently, Gold and Silver are relatively low cost compared to other assets offering similar protection.   As of right now, Gold and Silver are nearing the lowest price ratio levels, historically, that have existed since 1990.  This means, the relationship of the price ratio for Gold and Silver are comparatively low in relationship to how Gold and Silver are priced in peak levels.  So, right now is the time to be acquiring Gold and Silver as a low price hedge against another global crisis event or market meltdown.

 

People are starting to park their money in digital currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than parking them in fiat currencies – I buy and hold my currencies in this crypto wallet CoinBase. This is primarily due to the Negative Interest Rate Policy as well as Zero Interest Rate Policy of the Central Banks, which explains the sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, this year.

 

Taking a look at this chart of the DOW Index shown in relative Gold Ounce price levels, we can see that every peak in this ratio above 15 or so has resulted in a dramatic ratio level reversion (decline).  This reversion means that asset prices (the DOW price level) declined while the price of Gold rose or stayed relatively stable.  The current level is well above 17 and any peak in this level should start the next rally in precious metals while global equities contract.

Second, the fact that the Gold and Silver price ratio is historically very low (meaning they provide a very good hedging opportunity at historically very low price ratio levels) also means that cash can be traded for physical gold with very limited risk and provide an excellent hedge for inflation, global market crisis events and as long-term investments.  Taking advantage of the current market conditions, one has to be aware that crisis events do exist and present a clear risk to future equity investments.  One could decide to risk further capital hedging with options or short positions as risk becomes more evident, but these are inherently more risky than a physical Gold or Silver investment.  Physical Gold or Silver, especially rare coins which include greater intrinsic value, can provide real capital, real gains, real hedging of risk and real return – whereas the short positions or options are only valuable if the trade is executed to profit.

 

The relationship of the US Dollar to Gold is key to understanding precious metals valuations.  As the US Dollar increases in value, this puts pressure on the price of Gold because most of the world operates in US Dollars and Gold is typically a hedge against risk and inflation.  Therefore, as the US Dollar increases in value, there is a perceived view that risks and inflation are less of a threat to the global economy.

 

As this chart, below, shows, the US Dollar is currently settling within a FLAG formation that could result in downside price action – below recent support.  When we consider the first chart, showing the price of Gold being historically very cheap and the ratio being above 17, we must assume that any downside price activity in Gold is a blessing right now because these levels have not been seen since 1999, 1965 or 1929.  In other words, this is potentially a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

Lastly, Gold and Silver are very limited in supply on this planet and, unless society decides that Gold or Silver is absolutely worthless as a substance, will likely continue to increase in value.  News that China and Russia are acquiring hundreds of tons of gold each year in preparation for a gold-based currency is another set of reasons that you should consider starting your own physical hoard of precious metals.  The most important thing for you to understand about owning physical Gold and Silver is that it is a protective investment that can be liquidated or resold at almost any time in the future.  It can be traded, held, secured and transported easily.  You can physically take possession of your Gold and Silver and be assured that through any banking crisis, global market crisis or major global event, you have enough physical precious metal to operate in a crisis mode and likely attain great wealth/gains in the process.

 

Think of physical Gold and Silver like an “emergency kit”.  You hope you never need it, but when you do need it, you had better be prepared and have set aside some physical holdings before the crisis event happened.  Out here in California, we keep “Earthquake Kits” with emergency supplies, water, lanterns, food and other essentials.  Well, guess what is included in my Earthquake Kit?  Yup – Gold and Silver in proper quantities that I could barter and trade for items that are essential.

 

This final chart is the Gold to Silver ratio and is used to identify when price disparity between the two most common precious metals is opportunistic for one metal over the other.  When the price of Gold is high compared to the price of Silver, this ratio will climb.  When the price of Silver increases, because of perceived market risks, this ratio will decline.  Currently, one can see that we are nearing a peak in this ratio chart – meaning that Silver is much cheaper, in relative terms, than gold.  Because of this, investors should consider Silver and Gold as viable wealth protection.

 

Should another market crisis event unfold, both Silver and Gold will likely rally.  This chart is telling us that Silver will likely rally by a larger percentage value than Gold to result in a decline in this ratio and resulting in closer “parity” between the valuations of these two precious metals.  Again, currently, this is very close to a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

The point of my post is that I can think of no reasons why anyone would not want to attain some physical Gold and Silver at today’s prices to protect against known risks, provide a hedge against inflation and crisis events and to protect wealth from what we all know will happen in a crisis event – the banks will close or limit cash availability (think of Greece).  So, it is really up to you to determine if and how you want to prepare for what could happen in the future.  Will you have your “emergency kit” and be prepared or not?

 

Now is the time to consider building your “emergency kit” and to prepare for the next market crisis event.  Our research team is ready to assist you and to keep you updated with Daily and Weekly update for all the major markets.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about our services and newsletters today.